[2020-01-04] New crisis in the Middle East: Good for bitcoin, bad for the world

[bL4nkcode]

New crisis in the Middle East: Good for bitcoin, bad for the world

Bitcoin and oil prices soared early on Friday morning after US airstrikes killed a top Iranian commander. Could crypto’s correlation to geopolitics be in any more doubt?

Source: Decrypt.co

[gentlemand]

'Could crypto’s correlation to geopolitics be in any more doubt?'

What's that rule about every headline that's a question concluding with a 'no'?

Fun idea. Just the same as Cyprus or Greece, if anything does happen it's an excuse for the same old scam wickers to fire up a new scam wick. Then it's back to business as usual.

[bbc.reporter]

Is the tension in Iran proven to be the cause of this small pump? What would the bitcoin news media tell us if bitcoin dumps again below $7000?

Also, how was it good for bitcoin? The price was higher? Do they only care of bitcoin as a speculative investment?

[hatshepsut93]

Is the tension in Iran proven to be the cause of this small pump? What would the bitcoin news media tell us if bitcoin dumps again below $7000?

Could be a coincidence, but it's plausible to believe that this small price was at least partially caused by the Iran news - the timing is there.

Also, how was it good for bitcoin? The price was higher? Do they only care of bitcoin as a speculative investment?

Are you saying that no one should look at Bitcoin as a speculative investment? Maybe that exchanges should be shut down and everyone should do only p2p trades?

Satoshi wanted Bitcoin users to have full freedom, without anyone telling them what to do with their coins.

[joelsamuya]

There is no correlation between the possible war between the USA and Iran to the price movement of Bitcoin but if Bitcoin investors and traders are thinking that the possible war can be good to Bitcoin then this perception do affect Bitcoin. Rumors can be affecting anything on the market, that is for sure. There are commodities that can be affected by rumors even planned rumors or just lies. So it is possible that this can be the same thing here. Just as what I am expecting, this can be just short-lived.

[Lucius]

Is the tension in Iran proven to be the cause of this small pump?...

Only for those who want some reason why the price has changed, but for those who think with their head, it has absolutely nothing to do with the killing of an Iranian general. He was important, but he is just one in dozens killed every day in Iraq.

What is happening right now is something that has been repeated for months, and we just have to look at historical data.

- Dec 05, 2019 - $7740
- Dec 14, 2019 - $7300
- Dec 18, 2019 - $6540
- Dec 22, 2019 - $7500
- Jan 2, 2020 -   $6900
- Jan 4, 2020 -   $7400

[LeGaulois]

The article compares gold, oil, and Bitcoin.

If you check gold and benchmark crude charts and zoom out, you see the trend started at the beginning of December, and it got more pronounced around Christmas time, It didn't start immediately after US airstrikes. It seems more like a continuation.
Nothing special to notice for Bitcoin, the price is even around the same as December

I checked WTI, Brent and OPEC basket https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts I believe there are the most popular (?)
Gold here https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do

[dothebeats]

Conflicts don't necessarily mean that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies should go up. It's not as if the economy of an affected country would tank almost immediately should conflicts arise and its citizens would start buying bitcoin/cryptocurrencies frantically. The citizens would still cling into something that they fully understand rather than take risks on uncertain situations.

Though there's a high possibility that Iranians would shift towards bitcoin as the conflict ensues, I'm still believing that they have no direct correlation with what's happening in bitcoin's economy currently. I mean, look at the prices of petrol which skyrocketed after the Iranian Quds Forces general was killed? It's obvious that Iranians would stick to their currency and not shift their attention elsewhere knowing that one of their valuable assets is on the move towards good prices. Besides, we've been in a sideways movement for months now that even Trump's impeachment nor the current news in US-Iran conflict haven't made an obvious dent no the pricing.

bitcoin and gold are set to soar...

Meh. Gold has been doing well as of late November 2019, and I don't, in the slightest, believe that its good performance is caused by the airstrike.

The article compares gold, oil, and Bitcoin.

If you check gold and benchmark crude charts and zoom out, you see the trend started at the beginning of December, and it got more pronounced around Christmas time, It didn't start immediately after US airstrikes. It seems more like a continuation.

Oil prices somewhat skyrocketed after the airstrikes though, but has since normalized a day after the announcement of the general's death. (Thanks for the link on current oil pricing, LeGaulois.)

Nothing special to notice for Bitcoin, the price is even around the same as December

I don't know why up to now, geopolitical issues are always connected to bitcoin as if they are intertwined and bonded like crazy. It started from Greece's loans, EU instability, up to Brexit and now The US-Iran conflict.
Seriously, people should stop correlating geopolitics and bitcoin just for speculative growth. The next thing we know, different countries are nuking each other and people would still post "Would dropping an atomic bomb to X country be beneficial to bitcoin?"

[BChydro]

Is the tension in Iran proven to be the cause of this small pump? What would the bitcoin news media tell us if bitcoin dumps again below $7000?

Also, how was it good for bitcoin? The price was higher? Do they only care of bitcoin as a speculative investment?

The pump in bitcoin does not have anything to do with the tensions in Iran but the oil price will increase in countries where they are dependent on Iranian oil and the rise in gold price might also be because of the escalation of tensions in the middle east, i hope there is no war as it will be a disaster if the actions ends up in a full fledged war.

[pixie85]

This thing in Bitcoin right now looks purely technical. We touched support again and bounced back up. Some people are pointing to inverse head and shoulders pattern forming which is bullish.

Read some predictions on tradingview and mist traders are short term bullish about this setup, pointing to 8000 dollars as the target.

Most likely nothing is going to happen in Bitcoin because of Iran. If there's a big pump it will come because of the halving not the war.

[bbc.reporter]

Is the tension in Iran proven to be the cause of this small pump? What would the bitcoin news media tell us if bitcoin dumps again below $7000?

Could be a coincidence, but it's plausible to believe that this small price was at least partially caused by the Iran news - the timing is there.

Also, how was it good for bitcoin? The price was higher? Do they only care of bitcoin as a speculative investment?

Are you saying that no one should look at Bitcoin as a speculative investment? Maybe that exchanges should be shut down and everyone should do only p2p trades?

Satoshi wanted Bitcoin users to have full freedom, without anyone telling them what to do with their coins.

I am not saying that. However, it appears that many of the people in the cryptospace are very focused only on the price as a measurement for adoption. Did Satoshi want to create a speculative investment to pump?

[gentlemand]

He wanted the world to use it.

The world can't use it until it's gargantuan and deeply liquid.

Speculation is the quickest way to get the ball rolling if a little alarming and crude at times and only the first step.

[1Referee]

However, it appears that many of the people in the cryptospace are very focused only on the price as a measurement for adoption. Did Satoshi want to create a speculative investment to pump?

Correct observation. In most cases the price is people's only measuring stick when it comes to determining the level of adoption. People couldn't be more further from the truth. Currently the price is lower than its all time high, yet the actual use is much greater, and that also translates into Lightning growing rapidly, which isn't going to be reflected in the price for years.

I was kinda surprised that I found people literally betting satoshis with each other by playing non crypto online games. The losers pay the winner through the Blue Wallet. It's a third party wallet, but one that does provide a decent amount of utility, and as long as the amounts concerned are low, the risk is negligible.

Adoption that can't be measured if the satoshis aren't withdrawn to the main chain but spent directly at Bitrefill for example.

[Kyraishi]

I don't think that short term bitcoin prices have much to do with world events yet, because the correlation is still extremely weak and it's unlikely that a lot of major players in the markets even consider these things when it comes to their decision making.

It's more likely a coincidence.

But over the long run, I do think that a period of volatility in the world could result in people seeking safe havens to park their funds in, and bitcoin is an obvious choice given its decentralized nature without a government or central banks' intervention that could potentially undermine its long term value.

[dothebeats]

He wanted the world to use it.

The world can't use it until it's gargantuan and deeply liquid.

Speculation is the quickest way to get the ball rolling if a little alarming and crude at times and only the first step.

Hate to admit but this is true. No one would have the balls to use something so obscure as bitcoin back in the days when it clearly has little to no monetary value. While IMO our obsession on speculating with bitcoin is a bit over the top, it really helped us get to places wherein we can't, not unless our bitcoins have any value in them or at least recognized as something that can be traded for real goods and money.

Speculation has always been a double-edged sword for cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. It hastened the process of it getting known in all fronts of the economy yet it kinda slowed down actual development within the community--and even divided a good portion of it along the way. Speculation is not chaotically evil per se, but chaotically good since it still helps us keep the pace albeit paying the price of hurting the community due to some egoistic, self-centered members that only want profits and recognition and not actual innovation.

I don't think that short term bitcoin prices have much to do with world events yet, because the correlation is still extremely weak and it's unlikely that a lot of major players in the markets even consider these things when it comes to their decision making.

It's more likely a coincidence.

It was always coincidence and not actually a direct correlation as some of us would religiously believe. Just sift through a couple of major geopolitical issues from 2015 up to now and you'll see that some of them didn't even make a dent on the price even though a lot of seasoned economists believed that these events would make a beating/everything green for bitcoin. Those who still believe that every important event happening around the world would have a direct impact on bitcoin is either blind or reluctant to accept the fact that they are wrong--or both.

But over the long run, I do think that a period of volatility in the world could result in people seeking safe havens to park their funds in, and bitcoin is an obvious choice given its decentralized nature without a government or central banks' intervention that could potentially undermine its long term value.

Still, volatility is bitcoin's greatest and worst asset in its arsenal. It invites traders to be adventurous and try out their luck into turning everything into profits while it scares away the boomers and faint-hearted people who only want their funds to be safe and appreciate a few percent every year. Gold remains to be the top dog on safe havens, followed by other precious metals and bitcoin on a close third.

The way I see it, we're on a stalemate between adoption and price stability. Adoption comes in when price is up, then again price isn't stable since it's either rising up ridiculously or crashing tremendously due to whatever trend there is in the market currently. And when price is stable, adoption becomes stagnant, and no new money is coming in to the market.

[squatter]

Are you saying that no one should look at Bitcoin as a speculative investment? Maybe that exchanges should be shut down and everyone should do only p2p trades?

Satoshi wanted Bitcoin users to have full freedom, without anyone telling them what to do with their coins.

I am not saying that. However, it appears that many of the people in the cryptospace are very focused only on the price as a measurement for adoption. Did Satoshi want to create a speculative investment to pump?

In truth, price is one of the best measures for adoption there is. Increased adoption means increased demand, which has a direct effect on price. It's difficult to imagine a mass adoption case where the price declines, right?

I can't find the the quote now, but Satoshi acknowledged this. He knew that if Bitcoin caught on, they'd become very valuable. It's simple economics, after all. Did he want that? Maybe not, but he knew it was an inevitable byproduct of adoption. And since humans are rationally greedy, speculation about said adoption is also inevitable.

Speculation is the quickest way to get the ball rolling if a little alarming and crude at times and only the first step.

Indeed. If not for the 2013 speculative bubble, I never would have heard of Bitcoin. I don't understand why speculators get so much flack. They are the reason most of us were ever exposed to Bitcoin at all.

[bbc.reporter]

He wanted the world to use it.

The world can't use it until it's gargantuan and deeply liquid.

Speculation is the quickest way to get the ball rolling if a little alarming and crude at times and only the first step.

Agreed. However not exclusively as a speculative investment for us to hype and pump. My criticism is towards some of the people behind the bitcoin news media who treat speculation as if it is the only function for bitcoin.

[gentlemand]

Agreed. However not exclusively as a speculative investment for us to hype and pump. My criticism is towards some of the people behind the bitcoin news media who treat speculation as if it is the only function for bitcoin.

But it's hard to argue that they're wrong. This is a moment in time that'll pass but for now it's the prime reason most people are here. Most establishment development around services in recent times has been almost entirely around milking its volatility.

There are people making proper use of its properties but they must be in a very small minority.

[Betwrong]

I read, you guys argue about whether Bitcoin should be used as a speculative investment or "in a proper way", and this what came to mind. Every valuable object is actually used both ways. Take famous paintings, such as Leonardo da Vinci's, Paul Gauguin's etc., for example. Shouldn't all of them be used "as intended", so that people could look at them and be inspired for doing great things or something? Yet, they are mostly talked about today because some of them cost hundreds of millions USD. Same goes for cars, postage stamps, and even money, coins and paper, if they are collectibles. So, I think there's absolutely nothing wrong with BTC being also used as such.


Interchange by Willem de Kooning. Sold for $300 Million in September 2015.

[cr1776]

New crisis in the Middle East: Good for bitcoin, bad for the world

Bitcoin and oil prices soared early on Friday morning after US airstrikes killed a top Iranian commander. Could crypto’s correlation to geopolitics be in any more doubt?

Source: Decrypt.co

Actually, it seems to be the opposite, these events decrease the doubt that there is a correlation between bitcoin's fiat price and geopolitical turmoil.

Perhaps it should have said, "Could crypto’s correlation to geopolitics be in doubt any longer?"