[2019-01-06] Mike Novogratz Expects a Bullish Period for Bitcoin and Gold

[jdebunt]

The price of bitcoin and gold is often affected by the same market circumstances. Rising geopolitical tensions tend to favor alternative investment vehicles. Following the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, tensions are rising between the US and Iran.

https://fintoism.com/news/mike-novogratz-bullish-gold-bitcoin/

[Kyraishi]

Certainly. With all the trade tension and whatnot there is reason to expect bullishness from these safe haven assets.

Bitcoin in particular has a lot of interesting features to it because of the fact that the tensions around the world is coinciding with its halving, which essentially reduces the amount of new coins that will be available in the market and also has a psychological effect on investors as they see this event as bullish.

So yes, expect good things from both these asset classes in 2020. Just don't expect a bubble the size of 2017.

[Argoo]

The price of bitcoin and gold is often affected by the same market circumstances. Rising geopolitical tensions tend to favor alternative investment vehicles. Following the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, tensions are rising between the US and Iran.

https://fintoism.com/news/mike-novogratz-bullish-gold-bitcoin/

It seems that this tension in relations between Iran and the United States will be long, because Trump is accused of killing the Iranian general, who allegedly directly ordered his destruction. If evidence comes up, and this is entirely possible, given the poor relations between Trump and Congress, and the recent impeachment of him, then Iran could take a serious retaliatory measure. Already, Iran is threatening to bomb US military bases. Therefore, it is likely that cryptocurrency and gold may rise in price in the near future.

[Slow death]

It's unbelievable, a few weeks ago when the price dropped to $ 6500 there was no one of those "very optimistic" guys showing up on bitcoin-related news channels, they were hidden from the media. Now with this tension between the US and Iran and the bitcoin price has increased a lot from $6500 to $7500 they have decided to show up to make positive comments. But if the price falls they will disappear again. This means they also have doubts about the future price of bitcoin.

[hendra147]

Today US is unpredictable, like in forex market every news can impact value of some currency, peoplw waiting unpredictable action from US , if US continue this tension gold and bitcoin value can growing with increasing people who hate usd to be international currency

[bbc.reporter]

I shake my head. Coindesk has also joined the Iran geopolitical storyboard to gather some clicks hehehe. Do the storyboards influence the price or does the price create the storyboards?

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-as-a-safe-haven-us-iran-tensions-rekindle-debate

[CryptoBry]

The marketplace is a big psychological game hence this is where contradicting ideas and opinions are blooming like azolla in the pond. Certainly, there will always be people who believe that conflicts between countries can be helping the cause of Bitcoin all maybe because buyers are assuming this to be true. Real or just perceived, ideas and opinions can be affecting the whole market, never mind if many times over we are also forgetting the facts, the truths and realities. Lies if believed by many can be the overriding truths. As for me, I don't care for now as long as Bitcoin is moving its price positively.

[1Referee]

We have to look at how his fund performed based on his 'expertise'. Shit. The dude at the very lows of the market looked at a $100 million paper loss.

The only good thing here is that he has skin in the game, unlike Tom Lee who's constantly talking out of his ass without putting money where his mouth is.

That once again shows that despite your wealth, you can't buy success within this space. Mike is just as much speculating/hoping as much as most people here do. Nothing special about it. Same outcomes too; more often wrong than right.

[hv_]

The price of bitcoin and gold is often affected by the same market circumstances. Rising geopolitical tensions tend to favor alternative investment vehicles. Following the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, tensions are rising between the US and Iran.

https://fintoism.com/news/mike-novogratz-bullish-gold-bitcoin/

I d bet that he first went long and later published those 'Expectations'

LoL

[hello_good_sir]

Yes, but probably for different reasons.

For bitcoin, the main event that will drive bullish price action is likely going to be the halving that is soon coming up this year.

Gold is much more driven by geopolitical risks. Whenever there is a risk on the horizon of a potential black swan event, gold will rally, and this is exactly what we are seeing right now. You could make the argument that BTC will also benefit, which could be true to an extent, but it's definitely not the driving force behind any BTC bull market imo.

[bbc.reporter]

We have to look at how his fund performed based on his 'expertise'. Shit. The dude at the very lows of the market looked at a $100 million paper loss.

The only good thing here is that he has skin in the game, unlike Tom Lee who's constantly talking out of his ass without putting money where his mouth is.

That once again shows that despite your wealth, you can't buy success within this space. Mike is just as much speculating/hoping as much as most people here do. Nothing special about it. Same outcomes too; more often wrong than right.

I reckon Tom Lee has more than skin in the game. His reputation hehehe. That should be worth more than any currency for him because Fundstrat depends on it hehe.

[buwaytress]

Gold I can always buy the argument. But Bitcoin, I'm still very doubtful that it soars along with gold, as I've always been in the past. Already this week, we see the striking correlation in the rise of the US dollar ALONG with Bitcoin, which rather contradicts quite a bit some of the talk about what's bad for the dollar's good for Bitcoin.

Again, that's never a case for causation, I personally think the dollar's obvious rally thanks to events in the Middle East has very little to do with Bitcoin's rise, nothing more than a coincidence.

[Lucius]

The whole article is based on one tweet, which really only represents the opinion of one man, but no one who is too important that his opinion should be taken too seriously. Anyone who has been involved in crypto for years knows that this and next year are likely to be very bullish for BTC, just for the reason that in 5 months we have halving, and that in the past it was the trigger for a big bull run. One does not need to be an expert to reach such a conclusion, but people like Mike Novogratz always take these opportunities for self-promotion.

I can't say anything about the price of gold, but if gold and BTC at the same go up, that means that investors are entering both assets equally, or that there are different investors, which is probably a more accurate assumption. Gold serves as proven value insurance in uncertain times for fiat, while BTC is definitely still not stable enough to attract investors who still consider it a high-risk investment.

[Theb]

The whole article is based on one tweet, which really only represents the opinion of one man, but no one who is too important that his opinion should be taken too seriously.

It's fun to see crypto news websites create a news out of something as simple as one tweet and make a whole article out of it. Especially when you think of that the tweet they are creating a news on is just mere speculation what they are simply doing is speculating on a speculation. I mean the tweet doesn't really have an explanation or some kind of analysis on why he thinks Iran vs US will be good for crypto and gold yet they created a whole article out of it.

[hugeblack]

Increased geopolitical tensions tend to favor safe havens such as gold, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen rather than engage in more high-risk or unaccounted for investments.
It is noticeable in the matter that more beginners are rushing to this market and therefore we may find some small investment that will be created in the time of limited crises, but how it can affect the achievement of profits is what will determine how the price will be in the future.

[1Referee]

I reckon Tom Lee has more than skin in the game. His reputation hehehe. That should be worth more than any currency for him because Fundstrat depends on it hehe.

Depending on someone who's been wrong more often than right..... Hmmm. Sounds like a bad idea. Lucky for him, most of what he says about Bitcoin are his opinions and not Fundstrat's. I'm pretty sure that Fundstrat would sack him if he was speaking out on behalf of Fundstrat.

I have been following his non crypto opinions for a while too, and even there he's wrong more often than right. News channels have him on just to make fun of him. In most cases he is asked about why his predictions didn't play out as he expected them to play out. The hosts laugh at him. It's kinda sad to see because he seems like a very decent person.

[hatshepsut93]

Increased geopolitical tensions tend to favor safe havens such as gold, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen rather than engage in more high-risk or unaccounted for investments.

There can be some mechanisms that could explain how Bitcoin could positively react to this type of news.

1. It could be a self-fulfilling prophecy - news sites were saying that Bitcoin is tied to global instability for so long, that speculators now expect that the market might indeed react that way, so they themselves start such reaction.

2. People who are already invested in Bitcoin might decide to increase their investment because they believe that it's a hedge. So, buying comes not from those who seek safe haven in general, but from a very specific group.

[bbc.reporter]

There are new articles spreading that bitcoin retreats because Trump defuses potential war in the middle east hehehe. What will be the new storyboard if price went on $10k without a war?

[Lucius]

bbc.reporter, the price of BTC will change and reach $10k at some point, without Novogratz tweets or Trump's decisions to go or not go to new wars. The fact is that people react to any news, whether good or bad, and we see the consequences of that. The first story was that a big pump had started and that BTC was going to explode because the United States would go to war again, and now when everything calmed down, the stories of halving as the ultimate savior continue.

Given the availability of information, any drop or increase in price can be associated with some event. It is only up to the media to present something, because news is always news, no matter if there were truth or logic. You just need to remember Libra=Bitcoin killer, screamed from the front pages of all newspapers and portals, and what happened is one big nothing.

[bbc.reporter]

@Lucius. However, is the price of bitcoin really associated with the bitcoin news medias' storyboards or are the storyboards association with the price only invented by the bitcoin news media?