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Author Topic: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53  (Read 2379 times)
bittenbob
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November 18, 2011, 04:10:52 AM
 #21

2.15-2.34

2.17-2.45

2.10-2.36

2.12-2.42

2.16-2.39

Someone quote me now lol.
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adamstgBit
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November 18, 2011, 04:16:45 AM
 #22

OMG REFRESH THE CHART PAGE!!!


bittenbob
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November 18, 2011, 04:21:45 AM
 #23

OMG REFRESH THE CHART PAGE!!!



Not seeing this at all so Im assuiming its your submission for the chart.
bittenbob
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November 18, 2011, 04:24:39 AM
 #24

I will add 2.19-2.27 and 2.19-2.25 to my list of predictions lol
adamstgBit
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November 18, 2011, 04:26:58 AM
 #25

OMG REFRESH THE CHART PAGE!!!

Not seeing this at all so Im assuiming its your submission for the chart.

made you look! hehehe
yes it my submission

RyNinDaCleM
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November 18, 2011, 04:29:11 AM
 #26

What about a cut off time for submitting? Otherwise you get someone submitting at 6:51, which seems a bit unfair to me!

ineededausername
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November 18, 2011, 04:29:37 AM
 #27

No cutoff, but people submitting close to the end get a disadvantage.

(BFL)^2 < 0
bittenbob
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November 18, 2011, 04:32:48 AM
 #28

No cutoff, but people submitting close to the end get a disadvantage.

What disadvantage would that be? Seems to me it is a pretty big advantage since you could tell what the previous highs and lows were.
adamstgBit
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November 18, 2011, 06:21:18 AM
 #29

No cutoff, but people submitting close to the end get a disadvantage.

What disadvantage would that be? Seems to me it is a pretty big advantage since you could tell what the previous highs and lows were.

the formula he pulled out of his ass put them at a disadvantage

BTCurious
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November 18, 2011, 06:33:10 AM
 #30

Prediction:

2.19100000 - 2.23650000

I think if there are still ties after your mentioned tie-breaker, the prediction submitted earlier should just win.

Jonathan Ryan Owens
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November 18, 2011, 06:45:41 AM
 #31

Who's the winner? I'll pay the prize and INAU can get me back. I think he's asleep.

-Jonathan

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November 18, 2011, 06:49:42 AM
 #32

It's not over yet. 10 minutes to go.


* BTCurious moves his bidwalls.


Guaranteed win.

BTCurious
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November 18, 2011, 07:16:01 AM
 #33

Hmmm, as it stands, I believe I win. I predicted the exact high and low, 25 minutes before the end. Because it's 25 minutes, my error is divided by a small number, which would normally make it rather large (lower score = better), but zero divided by a small number is zero.
If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in  Cheesy

As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername.

0253 SMF time (GMT) that is.
Your prediction is scored according to
(abs(actual high - your predicted high) + abs(actual low - your predicted low)) / (time left)^2
edit: Ties broken by (actual high-your predicted high)^2 + (same thing for low)^2
yes, I pulled these formulae out of my ass. Deal with it.

update: Also, 1 BTC bonus for best chart!

adamstgBit
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November 18, 2011, 07:41:55 AM
 #34

Hmmm, as it stands, I believe I win. I predicted the exact high and low, 25 minutes before the end. Because it's 25 minutes, my error is divided by a small number, which would normally make it rather large (lower score = better), but zero divided by a small number is zero.
If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in  Cheesy

As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername.

y did no one see this coming... Roll Eyes

Jonathan Ryan Owens
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November 18, 2011, 07:56:25 AM
 #35

Hmmm, as it stands, I believe I win. I predicted the exact high and low, 25 minutes before the end. Because it's 25 minutes, my error is divided by a small number, which would normally make it rather large (lower score = better), but zero divided by a small number is zero.
If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in  Cheesy

As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername.

0253 SMF time (GMT) that is.
Your prediction is scored according to
(abs(actual high - your predicted high) + abs(actual low - your predicted low)) / (time left)^2
edit: Ties broken by (actual high-your predicted high)^2 + (same thing for low)^2
yes, I pulled these formulae out of my ass. Deal with it.

update: Also, 1 BTC bonus for best chart!

I.. I can't figure out his wacky formula. I'll make sure he pays out in the AM.

-Jonathan

BTCurious
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November 18, 2011, 08:01:56 AM
 #36

I don't foresee any problems, I've interacted with ineededausername before Smiley

His formula is basically:

(your error in high + your error in low) / ((time left)^2)

He didn't specify in what units the time left is, but that doesn't matter for the ordering anyway.

So yeah, for me that's roughly:

(0 + 0) / (25^2) = (0 + 0) / (625) = 0

btc_artist
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November 18, 2011, 03:49:20 PM
 #37

So that means I won, right?  j/k :p

BTC: 1CDCLDBHbAzHyYUkk1wYHPYmrtDZNhk8zf
LTC: LMS7SqZJnqzxo76iDSEua33WCyYZdjaQoE
bittenbob
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November 18, 2011, 10:47:45 PM
 #38

So INAUN whos the winner?
bittenbob
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November 19, 2011, 01:41:51 AM
 #39

So no one confirming they have been paid the 1 BTC for the prediction or a statement of winner from the charts. Was this a bull offer or what is going on here? Or maybe he is chewing over whether or not to pay the prize to the one who guessed 10 mins before the end of the window. Some sort of a statement from someone would help to close this matter. Not sure why someone would offer this in the first place anyways.
Jonathan Ryan Owens
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November 19, 2011, 01:55:04 AM
 #40

So no one confirming they have been paid the 1 BTC for the prediction or a statement of winner from the charts. Was this a bull offer or what is going on here? Or maybe he is chewing over whether or not to pay the prize to the one who guessed 10 mins before the end of the window. Some sort of a statement from someone would help to close this matter. Not sure why someone would offer this in the first place anyways.

INAU hasn't been around all day. I don't know what's up. Two people agree on who the winner is, and I'll pay the prize. Also, votes on the best chart decides the winner.

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