Trump's iran War Pump in BTC Price. Will it last? Poll.

[bounceback]

I choose not to know, BTC is mysterious.

because in my opinion the recent rise in bitcoin prices is not due to geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran, maybe this is just a coincidence, but rather is caused by certain factors that are directly related to bitcoin.

[Lucius]

First off, let's not automatically conclude that the pump in price was due to the Iran/US fiasco. With that said, I don't think Trump's "Iran War talk" simply fades. It's not just a "talk" now, as far as I know a war is pretty much confirmed(correct me if I'm wrong). I know friends in the US that are now going to be deployed in Iran, with saying their hopefully not last goodbyes to their respective families.

With that said, let's not hope for the worst just for BTC's price to rise. Don't be that kind of person.

This whole situation between USA-Iran-Iraq can have an impact on the world markets, but not as much as the media overdo it for the sake of creating sensationalist headlines. They are pumping war story because this is hot news which makes them a good profit.

The facts on the ground are actually a lot different when it comes to the military option, which means that the US does not have enough human resources in the Middle East to invade Iran, and in the same time Iran can reach almost all USA bases in Middle East with its long-range missiles. For that reason USA is sending six B-52 bombers to US military base Diego Garcia (Indian Ocean island) which is beyond the reach of the Iranian missile system.

I think Iran will not provoke a real open war in which they have no realistic chance, but retaliation for the killed general will come in the form of some minor attacks on US targets or their allies.

Counting dead US troops in an election year would be one of the biggest nonsense Trump has done, and I think this whole situation is just a show of power that says "We are USA, we are the strongest and we can do anything we want"

[alyssa85]

I voted Yes, it's a store of value.

The bitcoin price jumped at the same time the price of gold jumped.

Suppose you are a fairly wealthy person in the Middle East and are worried you might be caught up in a war between Iran and Saudi (like Syria has, using proxies). And that you might have to leave. Do you leave your money in a local currency? Do you buy gold? Or do you buy bitcoin which you can take with you, with your wallet on a USB stick as you cross borders? Some people are trying all options, just in case.

[airdnasxela]

Since the war is just starting I guess? It's already showing that the price increases but I don't think that this pump will continue when the war between the two country grew bigger. Yes, it acts as a store value but with war, will it even matter for the people affected? Just like in your poll, Bitcoin is a mystery that's why we can never know. It might look like it'll pump but since bitcoin is a mystery, it can result differently. We're not even really sure that the pump is because of the war.

[LogitechMouse]

However looking at the charts, the stock market started to drop at 1800 EST while at the same time both Gold and Oil started to rally. During this time Bitcoin tested the $8000 support the hour prior and was already on a uptrend to break $8100, so who knows. Might be a coincidence.

I'm watching on this movement too in forex and it's surprise that Oil and Gold rally has same effect on BTC. I believe this is not just a coincidence.

I have no idea why gold made a rally at this moment but for sure Oil is expected to rise and so its price since Iran is one of the main sources of Oil and now they are in a revenge state against U.S.

Regarding the price movement of Bitcoin, I have also no idea and I see no correlation between what is happening right now between the 2 countries and the price of it. I'm always leaning on the technical side than the fundamental side and there are some indicators that are indicating that we are now in a bull run. I just said it is a bull run but still I'm ready if the worse situation can happen to Bitcoin again since many said it already and it is also my vote "Bitcoin is Mysterious".

[Eugenar]

This could be the starting point where investors and hodlers will continue to hodl their BTC purchased just recently, because the tension and problem in Iran and US might fade, it doesn't mean that people would readily sell their cryptocurrency, it is in fact a thoughts for every each of us to make the bitcoin halving a reason to continue holding our bitcoins. But I am pretty sure the BTC pump will continue untill bitcoin halving occurs.

[jhonjhon]

I voted for "No Clue. BTC is Mysterious".

To be honest, we would think that BTC could suddenly rises like this? As of the moment I'm sure majority is still at lost as what really happen. But I'm sure there could be some explanation here, specially when everything settles down.

I also voted for "No Clue. BTC is Mysterious" because I don't think the conflict between Iran and the USA will not have that much effect on bitcoin's price because bitcoin is way mysterious and the price changes with no common indicator. Bitcoin price can be affected by many things and the crisis between Iran and the USA may have an effect but I don't think it will have a massive effect on the price.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Or is this simply a pre-cursor to the halving pump coming and this price will be maintained and go yet higher?

I think that's the most likely reason, but who's to say?  There's no reason why bitcoin's price should go up right now because of the upcoming halving, and it's never really clear how bitcoin reacts to world events like wars and such. 

Bitcoin was above $8k just a few months ago, so it's not like this is a huge deal right now.  Yes, it's up relative to where it's been since November but it's still a hell of a long ways away from its ATH.  I also happen to think that this Trump-Iran thing might have had an effect, but I'm not completely sure about it and it also looks like the situation might be de-escalating somewhat. 

I think it's going to be an interesting year for bitcoin, I'll say that.

[Reid]

If the fury of him fades and the bitcoin price stays then that is a negative for those analysts who is connecting the crypto market to the world news.  
That means they are a failure and we should stop listening to them.
But if they are right and bitcoin falls back then, we should still not listen to them. It will become a bad habit and we might risk our money just because they told us this and that.
Also, they will be so proud of themselves then create unreal news next time.  

Events in the crypto world should be the thing being listened too to make the price move.
The halving, the FOMO's, the scared cats. That is all the reason into it.  

[exstasie]

There is correlation in the last week for Stocks, Gold, Oil and Bitcoin however what if the correlation is only temporarily because BTC had a double bottom at $6400 and was eventually suppose to bounce either way.

Exactly. Everyone always makes these rash assumptions about news causing every price move. Usually it's coincidental, or at most catalyzes moves that were already going to happen. The truth is, the technicals were already indicating a rally to the mid-$8,000s. I was talking about that days before any of this Iran news dropped.

[gabbie2010]

Well, interesting times indeed! Do you think this pump in BTC price will fade as 'hopefully' Trump's Iran War talk fades? Or is this simply

a pre-cursor to the halving pump coming and this price will be maintained and go yet higher?

take the poll (I've not a clue!)

Brad

Once President Donald Trump press release " standing down" of the imminent retaliation of Iran missiles attack on some targeted US bases in Iraq without any casualties aftermath of that statement resulted to dump in the price of bitcoin from $8400+ to the present price mark of $7900+ I hope this is just a temporal pullback or correction. I believed while the whole crisis subsides the price might rally upward again.

[Coin_trader]

However looking at the charts, the stock market started to drop at 1800 EST while at the same time both Gold and Oil started to rally. During this time Bitcoin tested the $8000 support the hour prior and was already on a uptrend to break $8100, so who knows. Might be a coincidence.

I'm watching on this movement too in forex and it's surprise that Oil and Gold rally has same effect on BTC. I believe this is not just a coincidence.

I have no idea why gold made a rally at this moment but for sure Oil is expected to rise and so its price since Iran is one of the main sources of Oil and now they are in a revenge state against U.S.

Regarding the price movement of Bitcoin, I have also no idea and I see no correlation between what is happening right now between the 2 countries and the price of it. I'm always leaning on the technical side than the fundamental side and there are some indicators that are indicating that we are now in a bull run. I just said it is a bull run but still I'm ready if the worse situation can happen to Bitcoin again since many said it already and it is also my vote "Bitcoin is Mysterious".

And Now, The trend is already reversing right after Trump announce a peaceful way to solve this conflict. Some whale might try to manipulate the Bitcoin price
using the tension in the middle east. I believe he want's to use the hype on Oil to BTC price. I already analyze both graphs and It's showing that the price movement
of them is relevant to each other. I'm not really sure about this theory.

[yulionoo]

I think the rise in bitcoin yesterday has nothing to do with the Iran vs America conflict. I think this is just a coincidence when the value of bitcoin has increased iran and America conflicted. after a few days yesterday bitcoin has increased, today bitcoin has decreased again. from this I conclude that the increase that occurred yesterday was the increase that usually occurs in bitcoin.

[onrise]

The things have started to settle a bit after the polite and much awaited trump statement talking about the peace and this viable a positive signal in  the world and today due to which many share market alto gave a thumbs up and moved up and btc which rose in last couple of days have started to balance out now .

[Aying]

I choose "No. Rises only in a Crisis!" because the scenario is currently changes and trump will not declare war against iran, then I think people in iran will withdraw what they put in bitcoin because the crises will not going to happen. maybe in many days it will start to dump again and going back to the previous price.

[Wexnident]

I could say so? But it could just be FOMO tbh. Tensions were high in the past few days which caused the surge to $8.3k, but with the tension kind of going out or at the very last breath? And with no recent updates as to the possibility of Iran still continuing its attacks, the price has went down and FOMO for it were extinguished. Still, the pump should happen sooner or later with FOMO of the halving in May 2020, which could probably seen by mid February.
It wasn't only BTC that increased in price these few days though, Gold Oil as well as Google (as for other stocks, Idrk much), especially google reaching towards record highs just recently.

[EdenHazard]

Moving the money out of iran/Iraq using bitcoin easier than any other methods , that's what I'm suspecting...

It has driven the bitcoin price up for around $1,000 within a couple days although there's a little bit correction now I stil think the price would continue to grow piece by piece.
I can imagine to those who concern about their money getting disrupted and wants to secure their money through bitcoin.

[fillippone]

~

well obviously such events have their effects on bitcoin price. it is a global market after all but i can't accept the way people are linking the rise completely with the M.E. events. at best the drama sped up the rising process and it may have been the reason for the start of it but not the reason for its continuation.
besides, as Trump put an end to the tit for tat cycle the drama went back to its previous state while bitcoin price still remains up instead of going back to $7k.

A general statement, not particulary related to your specific assessment or Bitcoin situation.
I read a nice column recently, which said:

•   Few things are as satisfying as a good rant, even if you are only a fairly impartial observer to one. A reader recently wrote in to complain about the state of the financial market pundit-sphere, and in honesty I had a lot of sympathy for his complaint. How is it, he asked, that the same strategists who confidently asserted x a little while ago are now pounding the table that 1/x is a clear outcome? If the facts have changed, that’s one thing, but if there is no internal consistency to your framework that’s something very different -- and much less useful.
•   A big part of the problem is the incentive structures that are in play. Saying “I don’t know” or “it’s difficult to say” doesn’t exactly make for good television, whereas stating an opinion with authority confers a powerful aura of credibility. Similarly, sell-side strategists are supposed to offer unique, actionable insights; the two most poisonous adjectives for them are “consensus” and “wishy-washy.”

So yes, financial makets is ful of "never in doubt" persons, who in the end are "ofter wrong".
When I report those graphs, correlation or analysis I usually do for discussion purpouses and to feed thoughts, for sure I think they are worth reading and convey some useful insight, but certainly not because I do think those are the truth.
So I share your frustation, even if I am accostumed to that, and I tend to forgive the logical U-turn rality chack impose on those who spelt the truth.

[sovie]

Iran USA tension was the main reason that gave bitcoin a much needed pump. As chances of war are getting less, price of bitcoin is also coming back. In this iran usa tension we altogether forget the coin halving coming later this year.

[aioc]

Well, interesting times indeed! Do you think this pump in BTC price will fade as 'hopefully' Trump's Iran War talk fades? Or is this simply

a pre-cursor to the halving pump coming and this price will be maintained and go yet higher?

take the poll (I've not a clue!)

Brad

I'm surprised on the results it seems, thr war has nothing to do with Bitcoin price, that is the general consensus of the majority here and I thought the Iran issue is one of the main reason why their is a pump, so majority here think it's not, and they attributed it to something unknown until, that leaves everybody guessing.