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Author Topic: 10M Bitcoins Haven’t Moved in More Than a Year, Highest Since 2017  (Read 624 times)
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January 09, 2020, 01:59:51 PM
Merited by fillippone (1)
 #1

https://www.coindesk.com/10m-bitcoins-havent-moved-in-more-than-a-year-highest-since-2017

Quote
About 10.7 million bitcoins haven’t moved in more than 12 months, according to Digital Assets Data, a fintech company building crypto data feeds.

Considering the total number of bitcoins in circulation is 18.14 million, this also means nearly 60 percent of the coins remained dormant and only 40 percent participated in the price action seen in 2019. The percentage of bitcoins lying dormant for over a year is at its highest level since early 2017.

“The sheer size of unmoved bitcoin is definitely a sign of the developing community of HODLers,” Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer at Komodo Platform, told CoinDesk. 

The top cryptocurrency witnessed substantial swings last year, rising from $3,693 to $13,879 in the first six months only to fall back to $7,179 by mid-December. Thus, bitcoin just about doubled last year despite the brutal sell-off in the second half.

Even so, a large number of bitcoins remained inactive, possibly because investors are expecting a significant price rise following the mining reward halving, due in May. The process, repeated every four years, reduces block rewards by half in order to keep inflation under check.

However, if the market doesn’t live up to lofty expectations, some selling could be seen, Stadelmann said. In that case, the sum of bitcoins lying dormant would drop.

I think the rise from around $3,300 to $7,500 in 2019 was definitely people accumulating in anticipation of the halving.

Watch for rapid sales though as bitcoin reaches it's price targets.

 
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January 14, 2020, 05:29:25 PM
 #2

There is no reason for many people to sell over the past year, even though the rises were due to the good news about accepting/creating digital payments in China that makes many people predict the good future of digital currencies.

I expect the scales to change if the price drops sharply after the next halving.
The fact that about 8 million coins did not move seems scary, which could lead to a complete collapse in prices if things do not go well after the next halving.

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January 14, 2020, 07:30:15 PM
 #3

How does this compare to previous years? Is this in any way unusual or pretty much the norm? I presume in bearish/boring times the lack of movement increases.

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January 14, 2020, 07:56:31 PM
 #4



They're saying more bitcoins are not in circulation but in the personal wallet of many investors and that means these investors are aiming to profit in holding it for a very long time. 8M BTC are up for grabs for new comers who wants to buy. Seem a lot much still to expect BTC to surpass the ATH 20k.

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January 14, 2020, 08:16:30 PM
 #5

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However, if the market doesn’t live up to lofty expectations, some selling could be seen, Stadelmann said. In that case, the sum of bitcoins lying dormant would drop.

Yeah, yeah, pretty much anything could happen whether bitcoin lives up to those expectations or not.  There could be massive selling either way or there might not be.  I'm not sure this inactivity is because holders are anticipating the halving or not.  It could be that a lot of people decided that the best time to buy and hold bitcoin is when it's gotten slammed to the ground, which it did all throughout 2018.  The halving might have nothing to do with it.

And by the way, if you're ever wondering whether people see bitcoin as a currency or an investment, look no further than this data.  I would imagine that a lot of the activity between bitcoin wallets in the past year was due to trading or some other reason aside from people spending it on things.

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January 14, 2020, 10:09:28 PM
 #6

How does this compare to previous years? Is this in any way unusual or pretty much the norm? I presume in bearish/boring times the lack of movement increases.

An organic effect.

Imagine if you're one the person who bought bitcoins when the price was at $15k, you're not crazy to sell between $3k -$8k (during 2019) unless you have an emergency IRL or you're able to handle the loss with your diversification. What options people have? Just to wait and praying something to happen with the halving to minimize the losses.

Don't worry, as soon Bitcoin hits $15k people will start to sell massively like if it is a new ATH. They certainly won't wait for Bitcoin to hit $20k again

Yeah, yeah, pretty much anything could happen whether bitcoin lives up to those expectations or not.  There could be massive selling either way or there might not be.  I'm not sure this inactivity is because holders are anticipating the halving or not.  It could be that a lot of people decided that the best time to buy and hold bitcoin is when it's gotten slammed to the ground, which it did all throughout 2018.  The halving might have nothing to do with it.


Or it could be that the mentality changed and they learned the lesson. People were buying bitcoins thinking they can become rich the next week. Jumping on any new ICO website they found on Twitter. I still see people asking how to be rich in crypto with 50 bucks Shocked

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January 14, 2020, 10:11:27 PM
 #7

Don't worry, as soon Bitcoin hits $15k people will start to sell massively like if it is a new ATH. They certainly won't wait for Bitcoin to hit $20k again

People said that about the return to $1000 and the return to $10,000. Nothing of note happened and it carried on following the trajectory it wanted. I think that one's a dead idea.

If they're waiting for a high price the same FOMO will hit again. And they'll probably sell for far less after the high has been and gone.

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January 14, 2020, 10:16:54 PM
 #8

There is no reason for many people to sell over the past year, even though the rises were due to the good news about accepting/creating digital payments in China that makes many people predict the good future of digital currencies.

I expect the scales to change if the price drops sharply after the next halving.
The fact that about 8 million coins did not move seems scary, which could lead to a complete collapse in prices if things do not go well after the next halving.
Don't know what to say and hope anymore because once I think things are getting better, then opposite happens. Pretty often there is some lit that has to turn into fire but somehow it quickly fades away. The fact that more than 10 million bitcoins haven't moved means a lot, it means that almost 60% of people is strictly looking for price to rise and of course another 40% one can't be in opposition, we all need higher price for high profit, current statistics shows that we are ready for that as we were ready in past when bitcoin reach to 20K. Personally I look it like a very positive forecast and still again have hope that price will rise a lot. Today' situation is even great, we had 7% rise and price hit to 8800 USD, that' pretty good.

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January 14, 2020, 10:30:13 PM
 #9

I don't think that it's just holders, just that we need to develop, create more places that accept Bitcoin. I could buy certain stuff with Bitcoin, but Amazon is more convenient.
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January 14, 2020, 10:56:12 PM
 #10

Some of those are lost Bitcoins that can never be recovered.  Of course many of those are just being held as investments.  I have some that I've had for over a year that is just sitting in a hardware wallet.

 
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January 14, 2020, 11:37:35 PM
Last edit: January 15, 2020, 12:16:34 AM by STT
 #11

How does this compare to previous years?

Contrast adds clarity.    The lack of liquidity could be new trends such as indirect trading where a trustee holds the BTC and then various parties gain ownership via a nominee type system.  That'd make some sense as Bitcoin has become more accepted as its own kind of asset class, at least by some that has been the case.
  I would far rather see Bitcoin actually used not stored and used indirectly in this way.   I think many believe BTC will only achieve its highest value in direct use as some replacement for FIAT.    I dont know FIAT will ever release its grip but I would agree BTC has to be as usable and accessible as possible not the elites but in the hands of the smallest 'bits' to society and the economy.

Quote
definitely people accumulating

Its a variety of reasons always, Im quite wary of where we become centered around one theme only.  Obviously excessive speculation is the most obvious repeated example where quick reversal is damaging to any commodity.

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January 15, 2020, 12:18:26 AM
 #12

Some of those are lost Bitcoins that can never be recovered.  Of course many of those are just being held as investments.  I have some that I've had for over a year that is just sitting in a hardware wallet.

It is the regular cycle, smart money accumulates and waits for the halving summer. I don't believe that many coins are lost these days. Maybe only in tiny fragments by beginners who don't understand the importance of the seed.

There was lately some movement of old coins transferred to bc1 addresses, I think this will increase in the near future while the transaction fees are low. No one wants to pay premium just to have the chance to use the lightning network eventually.
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January 15, 2020, 03:22:23 AM
 #13

There is no reason for many people to sell over the past year, even though the rises were due to the good news about accepting/creating digital payments in China that makes many people predict the good future of digital currencies.

I expect the scales to change if the price drops sharply after the next halving.
The fact that about 8 million coins did not move seems scary, which could lead to a complete collapse in prices if things do not go well after the next halving.
Lets hope for that thing not to happen.You're right on saying that theres no reason for people or hodlers to sell out their coins on sideways market and now we do see some significant rise due highly possibly because of the upcoming halving but we can already presume that there might really be a huge sell off after that event specially
when prices goes to the roof and the perfect time on securing profits or even breaking even for those people who bought on ATH and still holding upto now.

Im already expecting for it to happen yet this market is always having a bumpy ride due to lots of factors,including this one.

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aubert
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January 15, 2020, 03:49:12 AM
 #14

Seems people really get carried away with the hype of halving though it doesn't guarantee price increase even at the slightest but people are still holding it nonetheless because why not and indirectly increase the price in the market like sort of self-fulfilling prophecy but if that's really the case there might be upcoming dump after the halving though I hope that the market when halving happen. But I think when the hodling practice becoming too common that majority of coins are stuck in the wallet it just seems unhealthy for the market.

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blckhawk
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January 15, 2020, 05:23:23 AM
 #15

Makes sense, actually, since the generated, circulating bitcoins would be higher today because of mining than in earlier times. Add to that the fact that most holders are anticipating in the halving, especially the whales. Though one thing to note is that this 10M unmoved btc might be distributed well, and not only held by a small group of individuals. But still, it would make a great wave when the market starts to get manipulated.
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January 15, 2020, 05:43:44 AM
 #16

Makes sense, actually, since the generated, circulating bitcoins would be higher today because of mining than in earlier times. Add to that the fact that most holders are anticipating in the halving, especially the whales. Though one thing to note is that this 10M unmoved btc might be distributed well, and not only held by a small group of individuals. But still, it would make a great wave when the market starts to get manipulated.

With the 10M BTC to be moved, I do think that if this will be divided first amongst people across the world and be use in more exchange not just one, we could have a better market price that will enable us to have more profits with our investment. The bitcoin halving on the other hand is a great support for us to have a strong reason why we are selling bitcoin in higher prices. Thus, we are all the way to achieve good market price over time.

 
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January 15, 2020, 07:03:14 AM
 #17


They're saying more bitcoins are not in circulation but in the personal wallet of many investors and that means these investors are aiming to profit in holding it for a very long time. 8M BTC are up for grabs for new comers who wants to buy. Seem a lot much still to expect BTC to surpass the ATH 20k.

Yeah of course they are long-term holders, not without reason millions of bitcoins are not circulating, there is certainly a strong reason about the future of bitcoin holders. Other bitcoin holders should be aware of that, rather than being carried away by FUD to sell with the flow that is not clear. The fact is the whales are still waiting for bitcoin to go beyond ATH.

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January 15, 2020, 07:44:35 AM
 #18

Whales have to cash out too. Dont get me wrong, the holders are there but there are people who need to cash their coins and pay for their bills, investments and so on.

Some may choose to change sectors and invest in other commodities than crypto. This can be likely with the stagnancy with bitcoin price leaving out the last 24hour 400$ rise in bitcoin price, talking in general about the last 2years.

With the halving approaching my prediction is that people will stack up and sell on any of the pumps before the halving. Be ready for a bloodbath during those days. It can get really unpredictable.

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January 15, 2020, 08:22:25 AM
 #19

Its probably because many have lost there keys while others don't have a place to spend and are accumulating them as an asset of investment. There will be total supply of 21 million and if this figure 10M bitcoin is true then this means many are hodling bitcoins for day to come. Though I doubt these stats.

 
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January 15, 2020, 08:42:01 AM
 #20

Its probably because many have lost there keys while others don't have a place to spend and are accumulating them as an asset of investment. There will be total supply of 21 million and if this figure 10M bitcoin is true then this means many are hodling bitcoins for day to come. Though I doubt these stats.

It wont really be that precise on having that 10M coins havent moved out yet we should consider those which are lost or floating to void
but if large part of the entire number is still accessible then it wont be a surprise if there would be a crash on price i majority of those holder
would tend to secure profits on a specific time.As said this might happen before the halving event commence.
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