Funny how every time the market is in a recession and losers keep holding on to their losses they magically become "long term" holders.
God damn it, "long term" is such a stupid meme. Admit it, you wanted to get rich quick and once you realised you are too dumb to swing trade you suddenly became a "long term" loser.
Such idiocity.
You think Dan Balzerian held anything "long term"?
Long term is for losers.
I resemble the remarks above but then again been in HODL mode (mostly) since 2013.
The current catch is with the Pandemic and IMHO, the crummy way Trump and the Senate are managing the USA, I currently look at BTC/Crypto as a 'hedge'.
If the current powers that be have or can exert control and destroy decentralized crypto-currency like BTC and privatize the blockchain process completely.
Well, I am retired on 'traditional stocks', etc. So no great risk. Living off the 4% interest and 65 years old so 60% bonds/etc suited to people old as dirt as myself.
If on the other hand, now with Trump in office and the Pandemic and other black swan events in the play, we have what 7 trillion dollars of printed out of air money
now in the USA with pandemic and tax cuts from the last few years? Well, then when the Pandemic goes away (whenever) then IMHO we will have to not only pay
as a society for probably the 'needed' 7 Trillion to survive this and recover in the USA, I feel it very, very likely some hard questions will be asked about other things.
Gonna be a 'lot' more clarity on the 2.5 trillion of the above that did not 'trickle' down and help society before or after this Pandemic. Schools/Roads/Bridges/etc and
infrastructure, in general, will also be past the pale to ignore. Add to the fact that after this pandemic, will be MORE of a push towards telework/robots/or moving and decentralizing manufacturing around the world....it will be damn harder to get a job or go to University or whatever.
Also, everyone after the pandemic, from a 'fiscal' point of view, is going to be Japanese in how they use money, tight as f*ck. The days of 70% of the economy
of consumer spending driving the market are gone. Everyone under 40 years, never really facing this before are gonna pay off their house, they almost lost in
the pandemic) get health care, freak out about the job they lost save for other options or education. Everyone will have 'fiscally' grown the f*ck up as they did
after the roaring 1920s of wine and song after the great depression in the 1930s. People, even if it is a fast rebound, would have looked fiscal reality in the face.
50% of retirement and house value or business or corporation value 'poof' ...even if it all comes back, people will be changed. Like the Japanese economy for the last
20 plus years more conservative growth and less consumer spending and more debt pay down and saving.
So, if the above 2nd process comes to pass (remember I'm clueless this is my speculative bet) and the politicians use hyperinflation and other tricks to pay
down these economic bills, I'm talking 1980's 23% credit cards and over 10% inflation a year. Bitcoin/Crypto is the other half of this and why I'm in HODL mode.
IF it acts, especially in developing nations that, in the above manner, will have it much worse than the USA, as a truly decentralized store of value that out-paces traditional investments, you may have BTC/Crypto make up for the above.
So sh*t goes sideways on traditional investments...stocks/gold and ESPECIALLY BTC/crypto is where the $$$ will run to. IF they are a store of value at that time.
Now I know I'm wrong on ONE of the TWO above. One or on the other hand, I will get creamed. But to think I'd dump a mess of BTC/Crypto cash out into a US economy
where I'm already well invested and taking retirement income as a 'double down' now is just silly, again, IMHO. The plan B of BTC/Crypto seems well in play now
with Trump in office and this Black Swan Event and likely very deep recession, if not worse. We will have to see inflation and job losses come back with the usual economic problems that come with it. BTC/Crypto is my hopeful store of value hedge on this. But again, this could take years in either camp to come back.
In the short-term say next 2 months. I expect my traditional investments to go down below 50% from highs in Feb 2020. I would not be surprised if BTC
went down even more to around 3-4k... But, again, IMHO, you can't just watch traditional investments get creamed like this and print trillions of dollars worldwide and expect not to have economic and inflationary consequences...thus leaving my Hoard/HODL as it is.
If they both go, well won't matter much will it. IF one of the above goes sh*t, say BTC/Crypto goes beanie baby...I'm still ok...but on the other side if traditional
investments and such take a 'decade' to come back to 2020 highs...I have a damn hard time believing that BTC/Crypto will not act, even if modestly, as a store
of value and hedge my bets, with all the inflation and mass economic damage of these trillions printed out of thin air. Also, remember at 65 years old as of this last Monday, in 20 years they will stick me a Nursing Home anyway, if I'm lucky..so big whoop, take a chance on my views on BTC/Crypto...well, it won't matter much if I'm full of sh*t.
Again, I do think when the reality of the coronavirus hits the rest of the country, and hospitals are overcome for a period of say 2-3 weeks, even with good
social distancing the stock market will level out at 50% down from Feb 2020 high and BTC could go below 3k. You have to sell in either area due to world and real-life issues you are neither buying stock nor crypto. Real-life issues with everyone selling at the same time is gonna be dire. Got to pay for grandma in the ICU. I have to believe for both systems when thing stabilizes there will be a buyback, tough one against inflation, but still a buyback. Or hell all hope is lost and the world indeed
will have a 'blade runner' type future. But in the next 5 years say, yech, IMHO.
Sh*t is gonna get real. Brace for such. If I'm wrong, well I hope so, but if I'm right, prepare yourself, all of this is black swan uncharted economic times even
without tossing BTC/crypto in the mix. again, I'm clueless, but I'm playing it this way. Only risk what you can afford to lose in real-life issues though, there is a possibility it may take a generation to get out of this hole in whatever you own in this black swan pandemic and economic event.
It may come to pass, economically speaking that today's millennial generation is in economic terms, may have more in common someday with their depression era
great,great,grandparents...then their parents when all this is said and done!
dire times indeed
my 2 satoshi's worth
Brad
