Bitcoin Weekly Update: Is the BTC bear market over?

[cryptoadvocate]

Latest weekly update is now live here:

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/bitcoin-weekly-update-01-12-2020

Worth a read, but main takeaway is that spot and margin exchanges are telling different stories which paints a conflicting picture. Until $8,500 is gained on a closing basis, can't rule Bitcoin as out of the woods but as long as $7,700 holds on a closing basis I'm favoring longs into the halving.

[CryptoBry]

Worth a read, but main takeaway is that spot and margin exchanges are telling different stories which paints a conflicting picture. Until $8,500 is gained on a closing basis, can't rule Bitcoin as out of the woods but as long as $7,700 holds on a closing basis I'm favoring longs into the halving.

I agree. While we can be seeing some positive signs, there can still be no conclusion that can be made on the question if Bitcoin is really out of the bearish woods. Until the $8500 zone is established for good, the power and influence of the bear is still present and anytime the bear can roar and take back the gains in the past few weeks. Right now, the market can be looking for many good reasons for it to move forward and let's hope that new positive developments can be cooking right now ready to be served as soon as they are done.

[Furious 7]

As if bitcoin is still in a bearish forest up and down there is still no certainty to the safe zone of $8500 but in terms of technical analysis bitcoin movement will be so great in the future because it will draw conclusions backwards.
Bitcoin will continue to continue when there is an update but we will see what is happening right now there is still no movement to the price of $8,300 This is a bit difficult for bitcoin.

[pooya87]

a bear market is when price tends to continue going down, so you'd see lower and lower prices. that is what used to happen back in 2018 and it ended in the first couple of months of 2019 and right now we are about an entire year after the end of the bear market!
saying "weekly" update is weird here because you should have said "yearly" update as bitcoin has been in a bull market for the entire 2019 and price went up more than 300% during last year. not to mention that it is currently getting ready for another launch.

[adaseb]

No I wouldn't say its over yet, I would say maybe we have gone from bearish to neutral. Why?

Pull up the 2017 charts and look at the daily in April and July 2018, both of those had similar patterns were it broke a previous daily resistance and people assumed a higher high would be made only to have stall a few days later and retrace and eventually go to a new low.

If you don't want to get caught into this pattern wait until the $10300 breaks because it would be the 2nd highest high since we broke $7900. But right now I would remain neutral.

[ecnalubma]

We’ve seen price improvement however we don’t know until when it is. We cannot conclude yet because we’ve seen this movement before in previous months a repeating cycle but hopefully its a different one. We can’t call it a bearish either but these prices are not attracting FOMO’s yet.

[chip1994]

Latest weekly update is now live here:

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/bitcoin-weekly-update-01-12-2020

Worth a read, but main takeaway is that spot and margin exchanges are telling different stories which paints a conflicting picture. Until $8,500 is gained on a closing basis, can't rule Bitcoin as out of the woods but as long as $7,700 holds on a closing basis I'm favoring longs into the halving.

The bear market actually ended when bitcoin broke out of the strong resistance zone of $ 7k7. Now we begin with a strong fomo effect as the halving event gets closer and closer. It seems the sharks are gathering a lot of bitcoins to push its price even higher in this great 2020. And it's not just the sharks doing that, you can see the excitement of the crowd and we can expect bitcoin to rise back to $ 15k soon in Q2 of 2020.

[Wysi]

We’ve seen price improvement however we don’t know until when it is. We cannot conclude yet because we’ve seen this movement before in previous months a repeating cycle but hopefully its a different one. We can’t call it a bearish either but these prices are not attracting FOMO’s yet.

This is a tricky situation which can go either ways because we have not seen any sharp dump post this recent pump and at the same time as you have mentioned there are no FOMOs which means that users are smart enough to wait for sometime to analyze the market before jumping into it as they did in the past and end up losing on their capital. We cannot predict anything until halving takes place and we need to be really careful with our investments until halving as there might be more fluctuations in upcoming days.

[samuraijin]

I think we are really out of the bear market, the price continues to stay at $ 7,700, not too long under it since a few days ago and back up above $ 8000, it looks like the price will not touch below $ 7,000 or $ 6000, maybe this will be good for some time to ahead pick up halving right away

[Shinpako09]

It seems there's no indication that we're going back below $7k, atleast for now. The price has improved a bit and doing well this past few days but i'm still not confident that we got out of bear market already. Not until we have a strong support at $15k or even $10k. The FOMO has stop since we got a decrease when we touched $8k for the first time this month. If only, the price stayed for a longer in $8k, the FOMO will surely continue and would result into increase.

[oktana]

I am still considering doing some short in this situation.

there is still a scenario back at 7550-7530 within the range of this month, BTC has not fully recovered, unless it is strong around 8100 then it can be speculated to rise faster, I prefer to analyze it to remain stable in the same zone, Market confidence for the bearish pattern also started slowly closed.

[Wexnident]

Bitcoins recent push to $8.1k honestly brings hope to it actually pushing through and stopping going back to below $8k, but it has been only a few days since and confident reactions about it are still on the lows. We may have broken or about to broke the bearish season, but the FOMO effect might actually reverse and bring us back to it so it isn't a guarantee for now, especially with some traders out there spreading possible FUD regarding the halving having zero effect towards market price.

[arwin100]

We’ve seen price improvement however we don’t know until when it is. We cannot conclude yet because we’ve seen this movement before in previous months a repeating cycle but hopefully its a different one. We can’t call it a bearish either but these prices are not attracting FOMO’s yet.

This is a tricky situation which can go either ways because we have not seen any sharp dump post this recent pump and at the same time as you have mentioned there are no FOMOs which means that users are smart enough to wait for sometime to analyze the market before jumping into it as they did in the past and end up losing on their capital. We cannot predict anything until halving takes place and we need to be really careful with our investments until halving as there might be more fluctuations in upcoming days.

Because the atmosphere is neutral these days because of halving speculations keep spreading but I will not erase the though that we are still in bearish since as of now the one we can see is the price go stable at $8000 which is still good as of now but if we pass at $10k price well maybe by that time we can say that the bearish trend is totally done and we will enter bullish market since provably many people will buy since they will be FOMO for the halving matters.

[exstasie]

Latest weekly update is now live here:

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/bitcoin-weekly-update-01-12-2020

I wouldn't compare this rally to the "Xi pump." That was a 2-day pump, an obvious short squeeze. This rally has lasted almost a month, with the market consolidating and building support multiple times on the way up. Bulls are looking much stronger this time around.

I agree with David that the bottom is likely in already and we're probably looking at one of these two scenarios: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg53551723#msg53551723

[buwaytress]

Everything's worth a read, depending on your level of worth;) But anyway, for what my 2 cents are worth: interesting to see some technicals stick around to Bitmex and Binance metrics. Bitmex I've never really been a fan of using, especially since a lot of that doesn't actually require any settlement of actual bitcoin (its volumes are still majority on derivatives, right?). Binance okay, but any exchange that has its own token for discounted fees is a bit suspect in volume for me.

And no, Iran might have done something to gold, but I still think Bitcoin's correlation the past week's coincidence.

[panganib999]

Probably so, since there isn't a possible pressure for BTC to go down for the next few days. Might provide a few dips every now and then, but in general, BTC would probably provide a stable foundation so stay in the $8k range. Luckily, the market shows a pretty good rise for the past few days, and hasn't really shown any significant push downwards, and the price going down to $7.7k was quite temporary only, and should not be breached within the next few days.

[barota]

i am not sure if prices bitcoin follow prices gold . because the recent crisis in the middle east between iran and usa have effect a lot in prices of all stock . i hope effect of bear market decrease much and prices stabilyze above 8000 usd this month
 

[bitvalak]

No one has said that the bear market has ended completely. But little by little has shown positive things with an increase to $ 8500 yesterday.
It is also possible that $ 8,000 is the lowest point to be marked for earlier this year. I also can not say this will happen bullish pattern because there is still a correction in the daily timerframe, it needs valid confirmation.

[1Referee]

And no, Iran might have done something to gold, but I still think Bitcoin's correlation the past week's coincidence.

Highly questionable. As always, technicals make or break an asset's trend. Gold has been trending up nicely for a while now and it happened to break out around the same time the situation in Iran escalated. People love to connect dots between large price movements and events that happened around the same time.

I'm pretty sure that I can find an event that happened in the world and link it to pretty much any increase or decrease in the price of Bitcoin.

What could happen is that institutions might purposely act based on certain news events, but only to steer the price to the direction of the trend it was in already.

[Divinespark]

Price increases are a good signal for this market and the investors, but we cannot be sure whether the market has been uptrend or not, because prices may collapse at any time and cause This market is panicking again. I just hope that halving will help Bitcoin rise in the near future and that it can stabilize above $ 10,000, then we can believe that the bear market is over.