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Author Topic: CEO of $150B investment fund says:it's just about time for the dollar to weaken  (Read 109 times)
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January 14, 2020, 04:17:51 PM
Last edit: January 14, 2020, 04:48:41 PM by hugeblack
Merited by Hydrogen (1)
 #1

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, worth $ 140 billion, said in a webcast that the dollar should weaken, citing three reasons:
Foreigners who have started leaving the United States, the Fed's persistent insistence on printing money, and a budget deficit.
And then he started building theories based on the weakness of the dollar as follows:

With the prospects of a weaker US dollar front and center in his forecast, Gundlach sees an enticing buying opportunity brewing in one asset class in particular: commodities.
Historically speaking, when the US dollar weakens, commodities prices rise.
"I think with the weaker dollar, the valuation in the US, the Bernie Sanders digestion that has to happen in terms of market risk, I think that this black line is going to head up during 2020," he said. "This is a really huge buy signal — on a valuation basis — for commodities."
"I think bitcoin's going to go higher in the near-term," he said. "I think it could go as high as $15,000 in 2020."

Read more ---> https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-market-forecast-historically-profitable-investment-recommendation-setup-jeffrey-gundlach-2020-1?r=US&IR=T

Read more ---> https://coin.fyi/news/bitcoin/ceo-of-150b-investment-fund-expects-upcoming-weakening-of-usd-and-jump-in-b-eols1x

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January 14, 2020, 04:37:28 PM
Merited by hugeblack (1)
 #2

Is this a paid news site?

I can't get rid of this banner. I have tried to log in.

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January 14, 2020, 04:52:25 PM
 #3

Is this a paid news site?
Sorry, I am using Brave shields, which prevents such ads from showing and bypassing them. I closed it and unfortunately, the paid advertisement appeared to me.
I updated the news source with another website that does not request ads.
Generally, if ads "do not appear to me" appear, then I hope you ignore the link. The important points are quoted above.

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January 14, 2020, 05:06:51 PM
Merited by hugeblack (2), Hydrogen (1), turkandjaydee (1)
 #4

the Fed's persistent insistence on printing money, and a budget deficit.
Couldn't agree more on these two points.

The fed stopped printing money in late 2014, and then spent the best part of 2 years slowly winding down their balance sheet, from late 2017 to late 2019. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, they started pumping the overnight repo markets with billions of dollars for the first time since 2008. This has now continued unchecked for several months, as the graph below shows, and has undone many of the changes they spent years working on. We are now seeing the most rapid increase in their balance sheet since the 2008 financial crisis.



Meanwhile, despite Trump's promises, the budget deficit is rapidly growing, set to break $1 trillion this year, again at levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis.



The dollar is in a terrible position. I'm not at all surprised at investors expecting it to weaken.



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January 15, 2020, 03:44:08 AM
Merited by o_e_l_e_o (1)
 #5

OP's article reminds me of this timeline narrative:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ79Pt2GNJo

It details market analysts and media personalities questioning fed chairman Ben Bernanke about a housing bubble as early as 2005.

The media is under much tighter control now. Not a single establishment media source will question or criticize the fed.

A decent method of detailing standardized overprinting of fiat being a questionable practice could be contrasting japan's declining population with expansion of its money supply.

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January 15, 2020, 11:52:44 AM
Merited by o_e_l_e_o (2)
 #6

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, worth $ 140 billion, said in a webcast that the dollar should weaken, citing three reasons:
Foreigners who have started leaving the United States

Is there any proof of this?
Oh, wait...
Quote
Gundlach is adamant that the US dollar will depreciate for three main reasons: foreigners starting to divest from the US
That's something else!

Hmm, googled a bit for the guy...
It seems that he has been calling this weak dollar from September 2018...
https://citywireusa.com/professional-buyer/news/gundlach-predicts-weaker-dollar/a1154329

Oh wait ...January 2017:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/24/gundlach-sees-trump-views-weakening-dollar-boosting-tips-demand.html

Oh wait again February 2016...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-06/doubleline-s-gundlach-sees-dollar-drop-in-2016-as-bulls-retrench





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January 15, 2020, 12:06:01 PM
 #7

Weaken against what though? Against which currencies?

The Japanese are printing more than the Fed is, and their interest rates are negative. -0.1% compared to the +1.75% in the US.

China's budget deficit is about 5% of GDP. The trade war has hurt their economy as businesses are shifting production to lower profile (and cheaper) countries.

The eurozone has a stagnant economy and negative interest rates. -0.5% They're also printing collosal amounts of money.

So yes, the Fed is printing money, and the US has a budget deficit, and it's all ugly.

But in a room full of even uglier currencies, the dollar is the prettiest ugly currency out there. So I doubt it will weaken.

 
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January 15, 2020, 01:46:31 PM
 #8

Weaken against what though? Against which currencies?

Everything, pretty much. What this primarily means though, is that the US Dollar Index falls.

Either way, wasn't Trump talking about wanting to weaken the USD a while back? I'm not sure how weak Gundlach is talking, but the constant printing really might be intended to weaken it.

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January 15, 2020, 03:42:42 PM
 #9

All three reasons are quite solvable solutions but they just basically ignore it, I blame it on the american political system being built on bribes and donations so much and how politicians are basically in the pockets of the companies which is why it can never be fixed unless they take the money out of politics.

Foreigners are leaving USA depends on where you are from, some people leave because they are not wanted there (like middle east people who are treated badly by republican places) and all the Europeans saw that USA basically screwed itself and better to be in EU than USA, Asians are not leaving that frequently because that is still better to be in USA.

Fed can have a law that says it has to pass congress to print money and we would solve it instantly, but there is this cry for fed to be independent when Fed is basically banks friend so it is not independent, instead of politicians, bank CEO's decide on what FED does and that is not acceptable at all, if it was truly free and independent I would say that is best option but it is not like that, budget deficit is not easy to solve, that is actually a quite difficult thing to figure out how to stop.

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January 15, 2020, 04:27:47 PM
 #10

Where does he invests higher amount more than $150? does he make investing in bitcoin with bigger amount? I think very fantastic investment if using for bitcoin and altcoin where could give positive feed back for bitcoin back with higher price again, just the ideas with bitcoin and altcoin take their way on higher price by many investor want to buy and hold bitcoin.

 
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January 15, 2020, 05:46:48 PM
 #11

All three reasons are quite solvable solutions but they just basically ignore it, I blame it on the american political system being built on bribes and donations so much and how politicians are basically in the pockets of the companies which is why it can never be fixed unless they take the money out of politics.
Perhaps they are aware of the problems but their political interest weighs more.

Foreigners are leaving USA depends on where you are from, some people leave because they are not wanted there (like middle east people who are treated badly by republican places) and all the Europeans saw that USA basically screwed itself and better to be in EU than USA, Asians are not leaving that frequently because that is still better to be in USA.
Foreigners are leaving because USA is just too expensive, just remember that cost of living in US is different from the other country. I have to disagree with you in what you have said " Asians are not leaving that frequently because that is still better to be in USA." , It's not about the race but the affordability of the individual. There are americans who can't live somewhere in Asia due to different food preference, or even European. That is what I mean.


Fed can have a law that says it has to pass congress to print money and we would solve it instantly, but there is this cry for fed to be independent when Fed is basically banks friend so it is not independent, instead of politicians, bank CEO's decide on what FED does and that is not acceptable at all, if it was truly free and independent I would say that is best option but it is not like that, budget deficit is not easy to solve, that is actually a quite difficult thing to figure out how to stop.
Feds messed it up, they made a move on which is very suspectful and target for frequent questions making themselves silent in the corner. What they did? they just put the congress between them and the printer, pretty obvious what's behind right? Dollar index fell, Euro and Yuan is rising, putting congress before printing money will make it avoid the questions, let the congress answer, and let them run smoothly.

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January 15, 2020, 05:58:00 PM
 #12

The US Dollar is always decreasing in value due to inflation and I think that is the main reason why we have seen a constant raise in commodities' price over time. In my opinion he is a low baller regarding the Bitcoin price prediction for 2020. $15,000 is not even double from here. We're still far from becoming a mature market with a lot of liquditiy and moreover we still have the same 21M limited supply. I don't think that the bears can keep the prices this low for long time. I expect the Plus Token holders to slowly deplete their holdings this year and miners should be less incentivized to sell once the halving takes place. Again.. 50% reduction in mining rewards is no joke.

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January 15, 2020, 06:51:48 PM
 #13

The US Dollar is always decreasing in value due to inflation and I think that is the main reason why we have seen a constant raise in commodities' price over time.

Inflation coupled with bad Fed decisions and constant blabbering of the POTUS which, in turn, scares away potential investments in the US. The USD weakening as a result of inflation alone has been a cliche in the financial world for what, a decade now? The Fed is brewing up perhaps the nastiest collapse of contemporary times, and it's not just solely because of unchecked inflation that's for damn sure.

All three reasons are quite solvable solutions but they just basically ignore it, I blame it on the american political system being built on bribes and donations so much and how politicians are basically in the pockets of the companies which is why it can never be fixed unless they take the money out of politics.

It's always about the democrats and the republicans, not so much about the Americans who are always getting squeezed with these economic pressure whenever the high seat on the table is replaced. The friends of the current administration would always get the best privilege it does not deserve to work on the American soil with the best conditions possible. That's what's happening in the US and that's also what's happening in most parts of the world.

Politics will never get macroeconomics right as long as the interests of those who are seated are focused on their own coffers and not for the people.

Foreigners are leaving USA depends on where you are from, some people leave because they are not wanted there (like middle east people who are treated badly by republican places) and all the Europeans saw that USA basically screwed itself and better to be in EU than USA, Asians are not leaving that frequently because that is still better to be in USA.

Yep, people have been fond of Canada for quite some time now even though the economy of the said country isn't doing well compared to the US. While I agree that the opportunities you can find in the States is far better than most places in the world right now, it's just that the work culture plus the ethics of some of the employers are kinda off. They give the jobs to the Americans, even though other people from other countries have the better skills, experience and work ethic.

The Japanese are printing more than the Fed is, and their interest rates are negative. -0.1% compared to the +1.75% in the US.

It's because the Japs know where to allocate the money, not unlike the US who have been spending the majority of theirs in strengthening their defense systems, hoping that they can bully little nations for profit.

China's budget deficit is about 5% of GDP. The trade war has hurt their economy as businesses are shifting production to lower profile (and cheaper) countries.

Yes, but they continue to be the world's largest country in terms of economic output and throughput given their capability to produce goods much faster than the demand.

But in a room full of even uglier currencies, the dollar is the prettiest ugly currency out there. So I doubt it will weaken.

Easily because of its colorful history and the number of countries that are dependent from it, but from an economic standpoint, the world will surely shift to a different currency if all of these time-bombs are left unchecked. The clock is ticking, and it's ticking real fast.

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