Stance on bitcoin's effect towards the Global Economy

[pugman]

I have said this before, and I will say it again, the existence of bitcoin or crypto alone won't help a failing economy. Nonetheless, given how the whole World is going through a recession for years now, and also living in widespread ignorance that recession isn't here yet, rather, its coming in the near future. The World is at its brink of an economic collapse, the global debt is increasing by the day, AND we are, or at least we were almost on the verge of another World War, and 2020 just hasn't gotten to a very solid start people were expecting.

With that said, I wanna hear constructive opinions/predictions/speculations, on how things are gonna end up by the end of this year, and this decade. How is the GDP gonna get affected by everything happening, how are countries going to survive recession, and what is to say that we won't suffer through the Great Depression Phase 2? And most importantly, how is crypto going to come out of this?  

Edit: I forgot to self-mod this topic, so if you spam, I will report you, and get the post deleted.

[1715490383]

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[1715490383]

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[Juggy777]

I have said this before, and I will say it again, the existence of bitcoin or crypto alone won't help a failing economy. Nonetheless, given how the whole World is going through a recession for years now, and also living in widespread ignorance that recession isn't here yet, rather, its coming in the near future. The World is at its brink of an economic collapse, the global debt is increasing by the day, AND we are, or at least we were almost on the verge of another World War, and 2020 just hasn't gotten to a very solid start people were expecting.

With that said, I wanna hear constructive opinions/predictions/speculations, on how things are gonna end up by the end of this year, and this decade. How is the GDP gonna get affected by everything happening, how are countries going to survive recession, and what is to say that we won't suffer through the Great Depression Phase 2? And most importantly, how is crypto going to come out of this?  

Edit: I forgot to self-mod this topic, so if you spam, I will report you, and get the post deleted.

@pugman while there’re whispers that recession is coming among public and government officials no government in their right mind will openly announce that their country is under recession and that is the right way to tackle it. I’ll agree with you that 2020 did start on a scary note with a threat of Third World War coming, but that threat has passed away and now we should focus on more positive news.

The news I’m referring to is the phase 1 deal that has been signed between China and USA, and this shall help both the countries and global markets too that were hit by their disputes.

Overall there is hope that recession can be avoided, but for that to happen the government needs to take some bold measures now otherwise it’ll be too late.

Lastly if recession indeed strikes then bitcoins prices shall shoot upwards because of FOMO, and also the knowledge that it’s the only currency that can beat inflation and give solid returns in the long term.

Sources:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/16/business/us-china-phase-1-trade-deal-details/index.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/

[Lucius]

~snip~

I think most will agree that Bitcoin is not the ultimate solution to the economic problems that exist in the world today, it's just one alternative that is offered to anyone who wants to accept it. There is no global recession at the moment, some countries are experiencing bigger, some minor problems, but we are still holding ourselves above the surface of the water, although the world may sink at any time. As always, everything will depend on the great powers of the world, above all I mean the USA, UK, China, Russia, Japan which will be the main indicators in which direction the world is going. If the big ones start to fall, they will drag the others behind them, there is no doubt about that.

As for World War III, I personally think that everyone is trying not to make it happen because, given today's weapons, the First and Second World War would seem like a slightly larger firework. Nuclear, chemical and biological weapons can very easily send us back to the Stone Age, and therefore I believe that reason will prevail.

Crypto, and above all I mean BTC is quite a stranger in the global recession, although it originated at the beginning of one of them in 2009. The perception that people have about BTC is mainly as a store of value, so as such it would have its place in those assets that serve as a hedge against the loss of value of national fiat currencies, stocks, real estate. However, after only 10 years, I would say that we are in the phase of an experiment that is going on pretty well, notwithstanding the opinion that he had already shown failure (in case of adoption, price, high fees, a terrible effect on the environment) and other things that are cited as bad features.

[LUCKMCFLY]

~snip~

I agree that there will be a 2nd phase of recension, it is very likely to be caused by banking, the debt that exists worldwide is very large, the Fed has repeatedly emphasized its concern for negative interests, Bitcoin's behavior and Crypto has shown us in some of its focuses given in drums of possible war it has behaved as a clear refuge, at least for the most economically affected country (Inflation), despite the different opinions of economists around the world who they consider high-risk Bitcoino investment, others compare it to gold, and have even said that the correlation with gold is high, but when reviewing it is still low, as with the main actions of the Stock Market, it usually has a Low correlation, this makes it more valuable and, without a doubt, for the portfolio of any investor, it is essential to have Bitcoin.

It is possible that due to a possible recession, Bitcoin will be used more to handle large amounts of money, especially for transfers that are made in a short time, without going through many rules established by the banks (In recession there will be much despair to protect the money) This is a clear advantage, therefore, according to my criteria, it is necessary to have investment in Bitcoin since its value is clearly given by supply and demand, it has an inflationary and decentralized nature, it is ideal for this type of scenario.

[julius caesar]

For what I have observe in bitcoin, I do notice that it fasten the transaction speed and removes the task of every transaction that you are going to do. It is good since the faster the economy the higher the chance of a country to rise its economic growth. Because of the speed in transaction, the economy is also gaining a speed that makes it to move upward that will help a government.

[DooMAD]

I tend to agree with the OP, although I'll add the disclaimer that it's very easy to be wrong about this, because we've never had something quite like Bitcoin during all the previous global downturns.  

But the impression I get is that, because the connection between the traditional economy and Bitcoin's economy is not as... mature(?) as it otherwise could be, the two will remain somewhat separate.  If the traditional economy falters, I don't believe the mere existence of Bitcoin is sufficient to bolster it.  It's almost as though we're standing adjacent to all the drama and able to observe it clearly, but we're not directly involved because we're busy doing our own thing.  Perhaps that's what contributes most to the perception of Bitcoin being a "safe haven".  Then there's the part where we've built a debt-free monetary system, so we can't really provide direct assistance to that other system which relies on the creation of yet more debt in order to keep functioning.

[HabBear]

I have said this before, and I will say it again, the existence of bitcoin or crypto alone won't help a failing economy.

^^ True.

The biggest benefit I believe bitcoin has on the global or state economy is that it represents a viable alternative that isn't state controlled (same applies to nearly all crypto currencies). So when a Nation's economy is on the bring or if residents/citizens aren't happy with their Nation's political position they have an option, that's completely removed from any geo-political influences, to preserve their wealth...to vote with the wallet. To watch out for themselves first.

This utility, as an alternative currency option, also serves as an omnipresent threat to Nations, Governments that if they start to rule recklessly their people can abandon their currency, adding pressure to the Government's ability to stay in power.

[pugman]

@pugman while there’re whispers that recession is coming among public and government officials no government in their right mind will openly announce that their country is under recession and that is the right way to tackle it. I’ll agree with you that 2020 did start on a scary note with a threat of Third World War coming, but that threat has passed away and now we should focus on more positive news.

The news I’m referring to is the phase 1 deal that has been signed between China and USA, and this shall help both the countries and global markets too that were hit by their disputes.

Overall there is hope that recession can be avoided, but for that to happen the government needs to take some bold measures now otherwise it’ll be too late.

Lastly if recession indeed strikes then bitcoins prices shall shoot upwards because of FOMO, and also the knowledge that it’s the only currency that can beat inflation and give solid returns in the long term.

Sources:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/16/business/us-china-phase-1-trade-deal-details/index.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/

The chinese trade-off with the US is not a bad start, their tariffs went down by 50%. Not everything is bad I suppose, eh?

Idk about bitcoin's price rising because of FOMO caused by recession, I mean, come to think of it, this was portrayed in the tv show Mr Robot, where the bank system failed, and credit cards became obsolete. So people were resorting to a centralized crypto launched by the main prevailing bank and cash(obviously). So, you never know, for all we know, Libra could save our lives just as much as bitcoin, had the whole global Economy had to fall.

Also, thanks for the bloomberg website, that was a cool statistic to look at!

I think most will agree that Bitcoin is not the ultimate solution to the economic problems that exist in the world today, it's just one alternative that is offered to anyone who wants to accept it. There is no global recession at the moment, some countries are experiencing bigger, some minor problems, but we are still holding ourselves above the surface of the water, although the world may sink at any time. As always, everything will depend on the great powers of the world, above all I mean the USA, UK, China, Russia, Japan which will be the main indicators in which direction the world is going. If the big ones start to fall, they will drag the others behind them, there is no doubt about that.

As for World War III, I personally think that everyone is trying not to make it happen because, given today's weapons, the First and Second World War would seem like a slightly larger firework. Nuclear, chemical and biological weapons can very easily send us back to the Stone Age, and therefore I believe that reason will prevail.

Crypto, and above all I mean BTC is quite a stranger in the global recession, although it originated at the beginning of one of them in 2009. The perception that people have about BTC is mainly as a store of value, so as such it would have its place in those assets that serve as a hedge against the loss of value of national fiat currencies, stocks, real estate. However, after only 10 years, I would say that we are in the phase of an experiment that is going on pretty well, notwithstanding the opinion that he had already shown failure (in case of adoption, price, high fees, a terrible effect on the environment) and other things that are cited as bad features.

Breaking your paras into points, first off, the country I currently reside in is, as a matter of fact, going through a recession, people are just scared of talking about it. As for other countries, wouldn't you agree countries like Zimbabwe, Venezuela are going through a recession too, or at least on the verge of it? The big dogs are soon enter, given this rate. If the big dogs fall, it would be quite interesting to see, who comes up on top, would it still be US or a potential new underdog.

The World War 3 started off as a meme on Twitter, Trump's administration still hasn't provided how "imminent" the attack on Qasem Soleimani was. I'm somewhat glad the crisis got averted, as Iran was showing no signs of holding back, the whole scenario is interesting, but stupid, from both parties. I think I will start a thread on this, I have read a lot on this fiasco of a war.

The whole concept of crypto is actually weird, in case of a massive outfall of an economy, using crypto might actually just make things worse. Crypto is still VERY vulnerable in terms of how the platforms are, mobile transactions can easily be hacked onto, and it could make the outfall only more worse.

[Lucius]

~snip~

It is true that some countries are slowly but surely sinking into recession, but they still call it "a technical recession" (Italy), and another obvious example in the EU is Germany which reportedly escaped the recession with a meager growth of just 0.1% in third quarter, and as I said before, it barely hangs above the surface of the water.

The countries you mention (Venezuela, Zimbabwe) have always been in trouble, and the combination of internal political crises, sanctions and a slowdown in the world economy have only worsened the situation in these countries. It is my opinion that the USA could again be the trigger for a possible new global recession, the same as it was in 1929 or 2008. But at the same time S&P 500 Hits Record High, Boosted By Trade Progress And Strong Earnings which shows that things are not exactly what they seem, at least for the USA.

No one can say for sure what will happen to BTC in the event of a major global economic crisis, but the fact is that the whole thing is vulnerable in terms of infrastructure, and by that I mean crypto exchanges that are actually completely under the government's control. They can not kill BTC, but there is always an option to declare it illegal. I don't think that's a realistic option at this point, the total crypto market is actually pretty insignificant (less than $250 billion).

[chip1994]

I have said this before, and I will say it again, the existence of bitcoin or crypto alone won't help a failing economy. Nonetheless, given how the whole World is going through a recession for years now, and also living in widespread ignorance that recession isn't here yet, rather, its coming in the near future. The World is at its brink of an economic collapse, the global debt is increasing by the day, AND we are, or at least we were almost on the verge of another World War, and 2020 just hasn't gotten to a very solid start people were expecting.

With that said, I wanna hear constructive opinions/predictions/speculations, on how things are gonna end up by the end of this year, and this decade. How is the GDP gonna get affected by everything happening, how are countries going to survive recession, and what is to say that we won't suffer through the Great Depression Phase 2? And most importantly, how is crypto going to come out of this?  

Edit: I forgot to self-mod this topic, so if you spam, I will report you, and get the post deleted.

By 2020, there could be a lot of great political upheaval, especially for the United States. Besides, the global debt is increasing stronger than ever and 2020 can be a year of recession and inflation rate will surely increase. I think bitcoin and gold will be the two types of assets that make it possible for many people to retain the value of their assets. I am more inclined to bitcoin, if more and more bad news about the economy, bitcoin will increase in price. It is definitely the best place for us to store our wealth and I guess it can return to the ATH level of 2017.

[fiulpro]

I like to think that the economy itself is separated in two tiers ,
The superficial one made by the governmental business and also the conservative jobs and other things
And the ,
Deeper economy which is not as accessible by the people and is made by things like cryptocurrencies and other non Orthodox business .
The thing is when the war will strike , it would affect the superficial one drastically and people will now look for other options , the people will move towards the deeper economy which will actually boost the cryptocurrencies in the long run .

[Ucy]

I have said this before, and I will say it again, the existence of bitcoin or crypto alone won't help a failing economy.

^^ True.

The biggest benefit I believe bitcoin has on the global or state economy is that it represents a viable alternative that isn't state controlled (same applies to nearly all crypto currencies). So when a Nation's economy is on the bring or if residents/citizens aren't happy with their Nation's political position they have an option, that's completely removed from any geo-political influences, to preserve their wealth...to vote with the wallet. To watch out for themselves first.

This utility, as an alternative currency option, also serves as an omnipresent threat to Nations, Governments that if they start to rule recklessly their people can abandon their currency, adding pressure to the Government's ability to stay in power.

Exactly.
I believe crypto will eventually humble the politicians. It could make politics (which is where the powers and monies are) less attractive to people who never really want to serve. Once abuse of powers and common wealth become a very difficult/risky thing to do, they will most likely give way for the real leaders

[Wexnident]

Imo, I doubt Bitcoin or crypto, in general, would actually come out and prove anything at this point. In the eyes of the general populace, Crypto is an investment. Not something similar to a fiat. It's a digital asset comparable to stocks, where everyone is playing the game of improving it and building it up from scratch so that it's stocks would grow exponentially. Some are expecting that Crypto would change fiat for the better, but with the scene having only 10 years of growth, its near impossible for it to take responsibility, especially since the governments and banks refuse to fix the problem, but still continue to cling towards the current economy.
I also doubt the news of a World War upcoming. Like, I'm pretty sure US and Iran knows what a war entails, and imo, a war would only ensue if and only if a country is on the brink of losing every single resource that could back it up. Alliances, trades with other countries, local riches and the like, if they lose everything, war is the last option is it not?

[squatz1]

I have said this before, and I will say it again, the existence of bitcoin or crypto alone won't help a failing economy. Nonetheless, given how the whole World is going through a recession for years now, and also living in widespread ignorance that recession isn't here yet, rather, its coming in the near future. The World is at its brink of an economic collapse, the global debt is increasing by the day, AND we are, or at least we were almost on the verge of another World War, and 2020 just hasn't gotten to a very solid start people were expecting.

With that said, I wanna hear constructive opinions/predictions/speculations, on how things are gonna end up by the end of this year, and this decade. How is the GDP gonna get affected by everything happening, how are countries going to survive recession, and what is to say that we won't suffer through the Great Depression Phase 2? And most importantly, how is crypto going to come out of this?  

Edit: I forgot to self-mod this topic, so if you spam, I will report you, and get the post deleted.

Where'd you get the info on the world being in a recession for years now? If you're talking about our debt, and things like that that's one thing, but the economy is growing and isn't in a recession right now.

Recession (Defined by Google) - a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

People are always going to be talking about another recession when one happens. We've heard that another recession is coming for every year since 2008, and we're now in 2020 and there are no signs of a recession. The only talking points among people who think one is coming point to the China Trade Deal, other trade deal issues, etc.

Literally for the past 12 years, people have been hitting the alarm bells and saying that the RECESSION IS COMING and how you should pull your money out of your investments and such, people don't understand that in the traditional investments of stocks and bonds and all that you're going to be unable to time the market. Though I must say, a lot of this comes from my interest in traditional banking as well, so yeah.

But I do think that Crypto is going to be a force, but it's going to have to make itself EASY for people. The fiat on ramps have to be easy to work with, people have to have wallets that aren't hard to use, there has to be a USECASE for them, and things along those lines. We can't all just be speculating on Crypto going up, that doesn't help anyone and it doesn't improve adoption.

[hatshepsut93]

Do you remember that famous image which compares Bitcoin's marketcap to gold, silver, fiat money, stocks and other assets? Bitcoin was like a drop in the ocean, and even though it grew a lot in the recent years, it's still so tiny when compared to whole fiat economy. And because of that, it has no measurable effect on global economy, at best you can hope to observe its effects on local economies that are known for their Bitcoin use, like for example Venezuela. But even that requires some serious scientific research with the numbers.

[Gozie51]

How is the GDP gonna get affected by everything happening, how are countries going to survive recession, and what is to say that we won't suffer through

If there is anything like war that is going to show which I doubt, the GDP of the economy will fall or decrease. Of course, this is the effect of war because it won't allow for production and services.
And for bitcoin, it is going to be relevant in the since that, people will throw their money into it to safe guard it. So this will risebthe price of bitcoin in such era or decade.

[jameshugo17]

Bitcoin does not occupy an important place in the global economy. It can be a huge technology for us. It can promise great things in humanity. But there is a problem. This economy is still very small. We are in a market that is not yet 1 trillion dollars.

[Kakmakr]

People are very ignorant and they tend to ignore what is in front of them. I think Albert Einstein said it best, when he said : " Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity." The global economy are showing large cracks and some of us are seeing the same signs that we saw prior to 2009, when there was a near miss for a total economic collapse.

Yes, the Governments used tax money to bail out the Banks and a total economic collapse was avoided, but nothing has changed since then and the governments are hiding the cracks.

Bitcoin cannot solve problems with poor decision making by governments and and escalating debt are slowly suffocating the global economy, because governments and individuals cannot repay that debt.  

[Thekool1s]

With that said, I wanna hear constructive opinions/predictions/speculations, on how things are gonna end up by the end of this year, and this decade. How is the GDP gonna get affected by everything happening, how are countries going to survive recession, and what is to say that we won't suffer through the Great Depression Phase 2? And most importantly, how is crypto going to come out of this?

Oh Boy! where do I even start... There are so many ways to look at this... Anyway, I will go about my rant from the sociological perspective. If I am being honest the average joe still doesn't understand how the money ^{( FIAT )} is created out of thin air. The parts of the social machine has ensured a class consciousness ^{( across lower and middle class )} isn't reached... I'm not talking about just money but about privacy as well. The current education system focuses on neither of these, but it never will as it's a part of the machine which ensures a sort of order in the society and prevents the lower and middle class to reach class consciousness... For bitcoin ^{( / Cryptos )}  to come out as the Saviour, we need to reach class consciousness of sort by whatever means necessary whether you call it the Great Depression phase 2 or Total Economic collapse... But Frankly, I don't see it happening even if there is a Financial Crash of sorts, Banks will most likely get bailed out again as the average joe doesn't understand/care much about these things.

Cutting to the chase Bitcoin ^{( / Cryptos )} aren't coming out as the next world reserve currency for at least the next decade IMO, I just don't see it happening that rapidly... Too many people still don't understand how to operate a PC normally, How they are being tracked on every single website they visit, what information to give out, How to protect their identity etc... Simply put it's quite a stretch that we will see Bitcoin becoming the world currency in the next decade... But what I do know for certain is the demand for Bitcoin ^{( / Cryptos )} will steadily increase as more people become aware of these facts and more of them get access to the internet. Unless we see aggressive reforms which prevent people to keep their privacy E.g  Patriot Act ^[1] and straight out Bans on Cryptos. I expect Bitcoin to hit $50,000+ in the coming years, due to depreciating Dollar and Bitcoin's Deflationary nature.

The FIAT scam has lasted way longer then it should have, to it to go away we need a slow and gradual shift to an alternative like Bitcoin rather than a quick and messy one. We might even see a new form of FIAT backed by ( POW ) basically Dogecoin in a nutshell. If somehow miraculously we reach Class consciousness I see this FIATCOIN ^{( libra comes to my mind )} being pushed as a way to fool masses... Basically those who own the means of production i.e the banks in our case won't allow a change to occur that's what Karl Marx suggested. We will see quite a lot of it in the coming years as Bitcoin gets more traction. Bitcoin basically takes away this means of production from them... We might even see a Gold-backed cryptocurrency launching in the Muslim-World ^[2]. TBH I don't see what's the point of that when Bitcoin fulfils the purpose of being a form of Money even when considered from Sharia's perspective. I guess it has more to do with Satoshi's stash than anything else. I wonder what will happen if something like this became a reality, I mean both Gaddafi and Sadam proposed the same and both got eliminated one could argue if they put their tinfoil hat on, Malaysia is a rather stable democracy... It will be interesting to see what awaits them ^{( freedom most likely )} if they pursue this kind of path... This could well be the reason we have a world war from... But I am not sure if this currency will even become a reality.

TL: DR Bitcoin's price will keep growing steadily tho will be faced by a few challenges...

Sources:
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriot_Act
[2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-currency/malaysias-mahathir-proposes-common-east-asia-currency-pegged-to-gold-idUSKCN1T00FX

[CryptoBry]

How Bitcoin will behave if there will be another global recession like that happened more than a decade ago is something that we will still see and experience and there is actually no guarantee that Bitcoin will be appraised high under such  circumstances. All we have right now are assumptions and speculations but the real taste of the butter can only come during the real situation, and I am not praying that it will happen just so we can see how Bitcoin can be performing. Will there be a recession or will it be starting this 2020? Nobody knows but the way I am assessing things right now there is more chance that it will not be 2020, maybe that can happen after the first term of Trump. Now, we are back with the idea that Bitcoin can shoot to the moon if unfortunate thing can happen with the global economy or any bad news happening elsewhere (like the Middle East war or World War 3) and this is something I am honestly not comfortable with but I also understand that this is unavoidable since Bitcoin was born during the trying times of the last recession.