Early halvening

[odaxelagnia]

Why would I ask such a question about rumors and innuendo?  At first I was dismissive, then I looked a little harder at the technology in the mining.  1) ASICs can solve the problem way faster and for much lower energy cost (Iceland should be happy) than warehouses full of traditional computers, whether CPU or GPU based.  2) It wouldn't cost that much to hold a few of those back, right up to the halvening, only to spring that extra power on over the weekend and force the issue earlier, though this is the greed point I'm stuck on.  3)  Is there an investment in an early halvening that someone who knows (has the mining muscle to force it) an early halvening would be able to make to profit on the event happening a couple of days, hours, or even just minutes early?

Of so, that would give the rumbling I heard about an early halvening some credit.  If not, vote for option 1.  In either case, it's an interesting discussion point on using the mining technology itself to influence the price before/during/after May 12.  I vote maaaaaaybe.

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[ragavancoin]

Maybe it possible to move bitcoin price around 35 to 40% before halving because bitcoin price has been reached from $7k to $9k within short time in January 2020, so bitcoin price has been already pumped more than 20 % till now. and we can check the past halving history the bitcoin price has reached all time high past halving as i mentioned details about past bitcoin halving price of bitcoins.

1) bitcoin halving event in November 2012, after 12 months bitcoin price reached all time high as $1000

2) bitcoin halving event in 2016 after that bitcoin price reached all time high again in December 2017 as $19000

[HabBear]

2) It wouldn't cost that much to hold a few of those back, right up to the halvening, only to spring that extra power on over the weekend and force the issue earlier, though this is the greed point I'm stuck on.  

It would cost! No miner is going to turn machines off, and how would halving early help the miners? They'd earn half as much BTC for each block!

Maybe i'm missing something obvious or important here, and if so please educate me, but speeding up the block halving process only reduces revenue for the miners.

[pooya87]

first of all you have to check out the total bitcoin hashrate and how much hashrate can a single ASIC produce. then you'll realize that it is not as easy as putting "a few" of them aside to run them on the weekend and "force an early halving"! it takes a lot of ASICs as big as one of those big mining farms to be able to make a difference and be able to mine more blocks.
additionally it wouldn't make a difference at all even if someone did that. because nobody cares if halving happened half a day sooner which is the most you could affect it and that is with an enormous hashrate that costs millions of dollars..

[joniboini]

Even if it did happen early than scheduled, the difference won't be that huge. Maybe in hours or minutes, but definitely not months.

If you increase the number of RIG twice the difficulty will increase too, so it will stay in the equilibrium. The only one who profits from this assumption is those who use the naivety of someone new in the market that fomo just because a website told them to do so.

[adaseb]

Bitcoin clock at
https://www.bitcoinclock.com/

Says that the halving will take place on May 9th while
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Says that it will take place on May 12th.

The difference between these is that the estimate on May 12th assumes 10 minute block times, however block times are usually shorter than 10 minutes since the difficulty increases, hence the May 9th estimate is more accurate since it takes that into account.

It would be very difficult to make the halving happen anytime earlier, would be next to impossible to make it happen in March or April. Most likely first week of May sometime.

[Wintersoldier]

Bitcoin clock at
https://www.bitcoinclock.com/

Says that the halving will take place on May 9th while
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Says that it will take place on May 12th.

The difference between these is that the estimate on May 12th assumes 10 minute block times, however block times are usually shorter than 10 minutes since the difficulty increases, hence the May 9th estimate is more accurate since it takes that into account.

It would be very difficult to make the halving happen anytime earlier, would be next to impossible to make it happen in March or April. Most likely first week of May sometime.

With this sites, they merely speculate the time when the bitcoin halving will take place. In fact, Binance also created their own clock to predict the date of this event to happen. Se links here: https://www.binance.vision/halving

Though, it will not be as accurate as the main reason when bitcoin halving will occur will be based on the blocks created.

With all these, the most prominent thing that will happen is a huge bitcoin market spike right before the halving happens. With regard to the question, halving early would not be beneficial at all, because it needs time to create hype that people will consider for them to take advantage of the market.

[kro55]

I voted for <5% but my opinion is that there are zero chances of early halving.
It's interesting debate, as per my knowledge bitcoin complexity is set so that its directly proportional to computational power available. If we have ASIC miners that can solve problem much quicker then bitcoin problem complexity will also adjust itself accordingly.
I m here to read what others say about this.

[ajeef]

Maybe it possible to move bitcoin price around 35 to 40% before halving because bitcoin price has been reached from $7k to $9k within short time in January 2020, so bitcoin price has been already pumped more than 20 % till now. and we can check the past halving history the bitcoin price has reached all time high past halving as i mentioned details about past bitcoin halving price of bitcoins.

1) bitcoin halving event in November 2012, after 12 months bitcoin price reached all time high as $1000

2) bitcoin halving event in 2016 after that bitcoin price reached all time high again in December 2017 as $19000

Let see if the third round of halving is gonna give us a good result or no, sometimes things happen sequentially not for 3 times because many people already expect it and crypto always have a surprice for the users. So i think there must be a difference this year with the result of the halving

[joinfree]

Bitcoin block reward halvening has been estimated by crypto analysts to occur in May based on the number of block rewards that are mined every day. This is unlikely to happen earlier than that but if you rather want to ask about the bull run that comes along with it, then that is likely going to happen earlier than we expected. The price of bitcoin has been rising significantly for the past few days and we finally crossed the $9K resistance level.