Backbone analogy for BTC current & future price movements

[206 bones]

Guys, this is my personal point of view. I would like to have some feedback & your own personal insights.

The price is just an information tool. It tells people how much the market is willing to pay for something. BTC price right now can tell us how small is the amount of individuals who really understand BTC & see it's inmense value. In the other hand, BTC price is also inflated by those who speculate on something they don't even understand. BTC hard HODL level (support) is very difficult to brake because those participants are not willing to sell something that they value many times what the market is offering. This base level is made up by highly educated people, with low time preference. Which means they are betting for the long term, don't need to cash out anytime soon & have no doubt in their mind about the real value of this technology. Metaphorically, support level could be the bottom of the ocean. Contrarian to this, the surface behaves completely different. There are lots of movements & volatility. It is because is built in newcomer, speculators, uneducated people, highly emotional individuals, short term mentality, high time preferences & so forth.

With this said the next few months the HARD HODL lvl (support) will rise steady because of the halving. Less people will sell. Miners and hard hodlers. Demand will rise because people don't want to miss out on the halving event. FOMO will build up. Whales will take advantage of surface movements. Volatility will increase due to pump&dumps with no real reason behind it.

Taking all this analogy and theory as a backbone to price movements at this time, the rise in price of BTC is manipulated & it will fall again over a rising support, I would say just below 8 thousand or 8 thousand. The supports are the price to consider. Anything above that is the insanity of the surface oceans, full of changes in the waves and weather.

After the halving, demand will double the previous supply & maybe triple because less & less people will sell due to the price ingiting. Hodlers will only sell if the price is tempting enough. The ratio demand:supply & the support levels will increase consistently until the end of the bull run. And then a new low for the next cycle will emerge (which will be much higher than the 3k of previows cycle due to new comers).

Had fun writing & thinking all this through. BTC has made my life so much interesting. I'm really impressed. If you read "the use of knowledge in society" by F.A. Hayek, you will see that BTC is described in 1945 as a solution to the problem of the modern economy. Fascinating.

[RealMalatesta]

What you have been missing out is that "hard hold" people are not selling their coins, so they are not deciding on the price neither.

So, let's say the market is filled with people who wouldn't mind selling for 1000 dollars right? Now why would they sell at 1000 when price is almost 9000 and that is correct but from $9k to $1k if everyone started selling and didn't mind selling as well, the person who is "hard hold" will not have any say in it until they actually went up and buy.

So, the bottom is not actually people who decline to sell, it is people who are willing to buy at lower levels, it is not about who will "not sell" at $3k but more about who will "buy as much as they can afford at $3k" levels, that makes it a bottom. People who do not sell only helps the price not go down in the sense that if they sold the price would go down, it doesn't "stop" price going down but it also doesn't causes it neither. Add that and you will be right with all the rest.

[BrewMaster]

you seem to focus a lot on "more people not selling" instead of focusing on "more people buying" which is in my opinion the main reason why bitcoin price keeps going on. you see, whether or not someone holds their bitcoin isn't going to affect the market at all because someone who holds is not even participating in the market. but those that are buying are actually participating in the market (with their buys) so they are affecting the price.

so the only logical conclusion is that price goes up as more people start buying bitcoin. or in better terms, as more money comes in whether it is from new investors or the old investors investing more money.

[Wexnident]

If you've seen the post of alyssa85 in the forum, here it is If you were to read, just the title, A vast amount of BTC has never moved ever since 2017, amounting to 10m. Just from this, we can see that the market price of BTC isn't coming from those whom invested in the past, but rather those who entered ever since 2017. If you were to assume that most of those that are holding ever since 2017 are those who actually bought BTC for above the market price, which was around $10k, and the crash happened suddenly so they never were able to exit the market sadly.

[206 bones]

What you have been missing out is that "hard hold" people are not selling their coins, so they are not deciding on the price neither.

I don't agree. They are impacting the price. I'll give you an example: if a market where composed of 4 people & each of them had 1 apple. Lets suppose 3 of them are hodlers (value apples at double the current price) Then if someone wants to buy 1 apple, the price would not change. Because one of the sellers is running out of cash and wants to sell fast (values apple at the market price). So the price doesn't vary, but if the buyer wants another apple, then he will have to offer much more to get it and so the price would increase dramatically. The same happens with the bottoms. People are not willing to sell at the current price, so the only way to buy is start offering more until soft hodlers start selling.

[206 bones]

If you've seen the post of alyssa85 in the forum, here it is If you were to read, just the title, A vast amount of BTC has never moved ever since 2017, amounting to 10m. Just from this, we can see that the market price of BTC isn't coming from those whom invested in the past, but rather those who entered ever since 2017. If you were to assume that most of those that are holding ever since 2017 are those who actually bought BTC for above the market price, which was around $10k, and the crash happened suddenly so they never were able to exit the market sadly.

Interesting. I havn't think about this. It's clearly a way for BTC to make new higher lows. Some % of newcomers who buy in the bull run are not willing to sell when price goes down & so they just keep the BTC there for the long run. This is clearly another hard hodl layer. Thanks for this info.

[palle11]

I just would look at OP's end of post about demand and supply. I want to totally agree with that, price will increase after halving. That's , halving will determine the price movement and most likely going to increase.

[Kyraishi]

After the halving, demand will double the previous supply & maybe triple

Not sure where you get those stats from.

I get what you're saying and I think there is some rational truth to it - the fact that there is likely some hard support at a price level x that is increasing over time due to the fact that there is more adoption base, more institutional use, coupled with the fact that there is no significant inflation that occurs in BTC terms.

But at the end of the day the model you describe is way too arbitrary and seems reliant on speculation for long term price growth, which we know is not true.

[piebeyb]

it is meant that the holders will win the fight to invest in bitcoin, so they get a higher price and value because they hold it for a long time, people know that's where the 4-year cycle often occurs because printed supply factors start to decrease and people people come with the need to buy it as an investment with a high price is not a problem for them

What you have been missing out is that "hard hold" people are not selling their coins, so they are not deciding on the price neither.

I don't agree. They are impacting the price. I'll give you an example: if a market where composed of 4 people & each of them had 1 apple. Lets suppose 3 of them are hodlers (value apples at double the current price) Then if someone wants to buy 1 apple, the price would not change. Because one of the sellers is running out of cash and wants to sell fast (values apple at the market price). So the price doesn't vary, but if the buyer wants another apple, then he will have to offer much more to get it and so the price would increase dramatically. The same happens with the bottoms. People are not willing to sell at the current price, so the only way to buy is start offering more until soft hodlers start selling.

This is a very good thought, man, I didn't have the chance to think like that, they could buy 1 apple with a high value because there is only one that has it there

[BrewMaster]

What you have been missing out is that "hard hold" people are not selling their coins, so they are not deciding on the price neither.

I don't agree. They are impacting the price. I'll give you an example: if a market where composed of 4 people & each of them had 1 apple. Lets suppose 3 of them are hodlers (value apples at double the current price) Then if someone wants to buy 1 apple, the price would not change. Because one of the sellers is running out of cash and wants to sell fast (values apple at the market price). So the price doesn't vary, but if the buyer wants another apple, then he will have to offer much more to get it and so the price would increase dramatically. The same happens with the bottoms. People are not willing to sell at the current price, so the only way to buy is start offering more until soft hodlers start selling.

that analogy only works in a perfect world not the real world that we live in. in real world there aren't 4 people each with 1 apple, instead there are 5 people 4 of which have 1 apple each and another person with a bushel of apples. when price falls that 1 person aka the whale can dump his bushel crashing the price. in that case it doesn't matter if there are holders, he still crashed the market and then bought cheap apples at the bottom.
in this scenario the only thing that prevents him from crashing the market as low as he wants is the buyers who are making the crash exponentially harder with their buy support.

note that i am not saying holders are completely ineffective, just that their effect on market price is very minimal.

[206 bones]

After the halving, demand will double the previous supply & maybe triple

Not sure where you get those stats from.

In May the mining production cuts in half. Ratio demand/supply doubles. I said it could triple because of all the fomo and willingness of the participants to sell.

that analogy only works in a perfect world not the real world that we live in. in real world there aren't 4 people each with 1 apple, instead there are 5 people 4 of which have 1 apple each and another person with a bushel of apples. when price falls that 1 person aka the whale can dump his bushel crashing the price. in that case it doesn't matter if there are holders, he still crashed the market and then bought cheap apples at the bottom. in this scenario the only thing that prevents him from crashing the market as low as he wants is the buyers who are making the crash exponentially harder with their buy support.

Interesting point of view BrewMaster. I wasn't seen that side. Yes, I think you are right. It may be a mix of several things. The hodlers & buyers are definitely two of them. The whales are very predictable & they can only create waves in the surface. They always do the same. And the market never learns. People get caught in the same mistake over and over again.

[Soots]

After the halving, demand will double the previous supply & maybe triple

Not sure where you get those stats from.

I get what you're saying and I think there is some rational truth to it - the fact that there is likely some hard support at a price level x that is increasing over time due to the fact that there is more adoption base, more institutional use, coupled with the fact that there is no significant inflation that occurs in BTC terms.

But at the end of the day the model you describe is way too arbitrary and seems reliant on speculation for long term price growth, which we know is not true.

In that scenario of several adoption occurrence for btc, the speculations would results to positive impact on cryptocurrency? Or was that a hearsay which part of the manipulators way on deceiving many people to be attracted with price movements. Nowadays, the whales wasn't engaged with crypto yet due to many problems that hinders the increase  of each asset.

[cutesgirl]

After the halving, demand will double the previous supply & maybe triple

Not sure where you get those stats from.

I get what you're saying and I think there is some rational truth to it - the fact that there is likely some hard support at a price level x that is increasing over time due to the fact that there is more adoption base, more institutional use, coupled with the fact that there is no significant inflation that occurs in BTC terms.

But at the end of the day the model you describe is way too arbitrary and seems reliant on speculation for long term price growth, which we know is not true.

In that scenario of several adoption occurrence for btc, the speculations would results to positive impact on cryptocurrency? Or was that a hearsay which part of the manipulators way on deceiving many people to be attracted with price movements. Nowadays, the whales wasn't engaged with crypto yet due to many problems that hinders the increase  of each asset.

I think there are have some one or community where make bitcoin moving higher and lower price faster and become their chance to get much profit with bitcoin as investment, they have much bitcoin and they can want to do when have make bitcoin keep higher price and try to make bitcoin down as soon possible because they want earn profit every day.

[Theb]

Taking all this analogy and theory as a backbone to price movements at this time, the rise in price of BTC is manipulated & it will fall again over a rising support, I would say just below 8 thousand or 8 thousand. The supports are the price to consider. Anything above that is the insanity of the surface oceans, full of changes in the waves and weather.

I like to point out some arguments with your analysis in the martket, a correction to for Bitcoin around the 8,000$ level doesn't show signs of manipulation in the market. However if we have a bearish reversal from this current price down further below 8,000$ level then this would mean that Bitcoin was heavily manipulated. A 600$ drop would mean nothing to Bitcoin as it had done it in the past several times already only for us to see that it will quickly go back up to where it had dropped or even go higher which is really common when corrections happen. Aside from that the bullish reversal we have even though it's not backed up by volume shows that BTC was ware oversold last November 29 and also during that time its MACD shows signs of a bullish reversal waiting to happen that is why the price increase we are seeing now isn't brought by manipulation but is a product of a good bullish reversal.

[206 bones]

Taking all this analogy and theory as a backbone to price movements at this time, the rise in price of BTC is manipulated & it will fall again over a rising support, I would say just below 8 thousand or 8 thousand. The supports are the price to consider. Anything above that is the insanity of the surface oceans, full of changes in the waves and weather.

I like to point out some arguments with your analysis in the martket, a correction to for Bitcoin around the 8,000$ level doesn't show signs of manipulation in the market. However if we have a bearish reversal from this current price down further below 8,000$ level then this would mean that Bitcoin was heavily manipulated. A 600$ drop would mean nothing to Bitcoin as it had done it in the past several times already only for us to see that it will quickly go back up to where it had dropped or even go higher which is really common when corrections happen. Aside from that the bullish reversal we have even though it's not backed up by volume shows that BTC was ware oversold last November 29 and also during that time its MACD shows signs of a bullish reversal waiting to happen that is why the price increase we are seeing now isn't brought by manipulation but is a product of a good bullish reversal.

I don't know man. It's difficult to predict, but that also makes it fun. What I see is that there is no reason for the price to be where is at. The past rally was very extrange & few days later there was a huge dump. They are not interested in going unnoticed. It is very notorious what they do. If I where one, I would be way more silent. I don't see why the price would stay at this levels. From my point of view they are profiting from the FOMO caused by the "halving event" in peoples minds. Which only becomes real once we are in it. Not before it. If the price wasn't manipulated we would see a steady & healthy climb because more a more people would be preparing their hands for the next 4 year cycle. Not this insane volatility. So I'm imagining how this healthy chart would look like and then make decisions based on that.

[RealMalatesta]

What you have been missing out is that "hard hold" people are not selling their coins, so they are not deciding on the price neither.

I don't agree. They are impacting the price. I'll give you an example: if a market where composed of 4 people & each of them had 1 apple. Lets suppose 3 of them are hodlers (value apples at double the current price) Then if someone wants to buy 1 apple, the price would not change. Because one of the sellers is running out of cash and wants to sell fast (values apple at the market price). So the price doesn't vary, but if the buyer wants another apple, then he will have to offer much more to get it and so the price would increase dramatically. The same happens with the bottoms. People are not willing to sell at the current price, so the only way to buy is start offering more until soft hodlers start selling.

I understand why you think like that but there isn't 4 people on the market, it does change a lot when the number of people involved changes. Plus, the holders are silent so we don't know what they think the price is.

In this scenario there are 100 apple sellers, 20 of them do not talk about selling and they just want to keep it on their trees or storage, the other 80 decides to sell, one sells and price goes down, the other buys and price goes back up, then 20 of them sells and price plummets, another 10 buys and it went up a bit, and many many movements like this while the silent 20 is basically doing nothing.

There is never a "not selling impacts the price as well" as much as people actually selling and buying. You are right that it has an impact but not like people who actually sell or buy.

[206 bones]

What you have been missing out is that "hard hold" people are not selling their coins, so they are not deciding on the price neither.

I don't agree. They are impacting the price. I'll give you an example: if a market where composed of 4 people & each of them had 1 apple. Lets suppose 3 of them are hodlers (value apples at double the current price) Then if someone wants to buy 1 apple, the price would not change. Because one of the sellers is running out of cash and wants to sell fast (values apple at the market price). So the price doesn't vary, but if the buyer wants another apple, then he will have to offer much more to get it and so the price would increase dramatically. The same happens with the bottoms. People are not willing to sell at the current price, so the only way to buy is start offering more until soft hodlers start selling.

I understand why you think like that but there isn't 4 people on the market, it does change a lot when the number of people involved changes. Plus, the holders are silent so we don't know what they think the price is.

In this scenario there are 100 apple sellers, 20 of them do not talk about selling and they just want to keep it on their trees or storage, the other 80 decides to sell, one sells and price goes down, the other buys and price goes back up, then 20 of them sells and price plummets, another 10 buys and it went up a bit, and many many movements like this while the silent 20 is basically doing nothing.

There is never a "not selling impacts the price as well" as much as people actually selling and buying. You are right that it has an impact but not like people who actually sell or buy.

I refer to hard hodlers participants who value BTC much more than the market price. Because of two major things. They understand the technology & how bad is the modern economy. When you fit this two pieces together you see the huge impact in society & the multi-trillion markets that it can disrupt. This people seem like they are doing nothing, but don't misunderstand, if you give a price tempting enough they will sell you their tokens. So I repeat, they do have a huge impact because they make BTC more scarce. Obviously is not the only factor in the price, there are others. Some people need money fast, so they liquidate a whatever price. Others are doubtfull of this tech and the potential so they decide to get out, other are willing to buy at a certain value so they wait for the person who accepts his price. Miners need to sell to keep their operations running, and so forth. Liquidity is a major factor, without it this network would not work. Price is just a result of all this factors mix together. Is the perfect information tool.

When there is a posibility of a bull run after the halving, people who usually sell, begin to hodl hard & if we sum this to the fact that the production reduces in half, there is a massive impact in the price. That's what triggers the bull runs every 4 years.

[alexsandria]

you seem to focus a lot on "more people not selling" instead of focusing on "more people buying" which is in my opinion the main reason why bitcoin price keeps going on. you see, whether or not someone holds their bitcoin isn't going to affect the market at all because someone who holds is not even participating in the market. but those that are buying are actually participating in the market (with their buys) so they are affecting the price.

so the only logical conclusion is that price goes up as more people start buying bitcoin. or in better terms, as more money comes in whether it is from new investors or the old investors investing more money.

Agree, the ideology of price keeping up is none other else with people who come in the market and buy. Simply because which already stated here those who hold ain't doing nothing at all, and it just make the market stagnant or not progressive. So as more people come and participate by simply buying does push or hook the market up, price do change postively when someone or the mass buy.

[206 bones]

you seem to focus a lot on "more people not selling" instead of focusing on "more people buying" which is in my opinion the main reason why bitcoin price keeps going on. you see, whether or not someone holds their bitcoin isn't going to affect the market at all because someone who holds is not even participating in the market. but those that are buying are actually participating in the market (with their buys) so they are affecting the price.

so the only logical conclusion is that price goes up as more people start buying bitcoin. or in better terms, as more money comes in whether it is from new investors or the old investors investing more money.

Agree, the ideology of price keeping up is none other else with people who come in the market and buy. Simply because which already stated here those who hold ain't doing nothing at all, and it just make the market stagnant or not progressive. So as more people come and participate by simply buying does push or hook the market up, price do change postively when someone or the mass buy.

Yes, of course. I agree. But there are two sides to a coin. Im talking about the supply & you guys are talking about demand. Price moves when there is a change in the ratio demand over supply. As more people HODL, less offering in the market, which means that supply drops. In the opposite side we have demand. If it grows faster than supply then the ratio demand/supply is positive, so price goes up, until there is a new equilibrium between demand & supply. At the contrarian if supply increases & demand stays stable, then the ratio D/S < 1, and so the price drops.

[YuginKadoya]

Buy, Sell and Hold is what I see how the price of Bitcoin make a topsy turvy turn of pumping and decreasing I even think that the movement will also base on the past movement of Bitcoin and will sure collaborate with news that had a positive and negative impact and a little effect on adoption,

And right now the halving is the biggest movement setter that the price will move upward in a very unusual way, and just like in the past halving is the main event that many adopters are looking forward that the price of Bitcoin will surely move in a big direction.