Compiling the worst advice to help newbies make money (= do the opposite)

[Bossian]

Hi folks,

Just thought this thread could be helpful to newbies. This forum is full of rubbish advice. Of course someone can have a real argument but fail with his prediction, in that case I won't call his posts "rubbish" but I am more talking about the obvious rubbish such as:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg53651914
Post #408

Not a bad strategy, but even a scheduled buy every week is a good idea so you don’t have to watch the charts all the time. This of course is dollar cost averaging.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.220
Post #221

Is there another dip? Very well, let's support Bitcoin. Place your bids now, the next 3 months might be the last opportunity to buy Bitcoins under $10,000.
May everyone have a good Christmas this year. Merry Christmas!

A prediction that could actually become true, but still a terrible post as there is zero argument, zero analysis behind it.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5206017.0
Post #1

As far as I know right now bitcoin price is little bit low and in near future price will rise again. So I think it is best time to buy Bitcoin.

Well this was written from a newbie actually.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5215564.0
Post #20

It this will be consistent and successive every month, that possible for bitcoin to soar faster and experience another bullrun. Beforehand, accumulating our bitcoin balances is very important ways to expect more profit in right time. For now, just stay within control while it's not yet happening and don't expect beyond normal impression.

Beyond terrible.


Now some good posts:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5192689.0
Post #9

You know what, I believe that Bitcoin will return to its maximum price values in 2020. My assumptions are based on the fact that soon Bitcoin will be mined in 2 times more difficult, and in the days of halving Bitcoin price has always grown. In addition, the main cryptocurrency covers more and more countries and somewhere is already used as a currency to pay for goods and services. Just the price up can be pushed by trading futures on Bitcoin, I think that the money of institutional investors will raise the price using this financial instruments.

I actually disagree with him but at least there is an argument behind, so kudos. Then do your own research to decide what's best to do.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5215561.msg53543580#msg53543580
Post #1

The trend is your friend.



If we see 9.2k that would be nice for a possible reversal but right now looks like just another failed rally. For now at least.

Will be interesting to see what happens if we see again the strongest support at 6.4. But for now no reason to be bullish yet.

Always the same thing since July, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low...

Good analysis behind this post (and this topic). Not an emotional opinion but facts plain and simple.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2541338.0;topicseen
Post #20

Funny how this forum (and people in general) repeats the same mistakes over and over again. A big (and I mean fucking BIG) crash will come. Most gains will be returned, and the euphoria will die. Nothing simply 100x's and doesn't suffer a bear market after. Bitcoin doesn't only go up and wallstreet doesn't come to pump everyone's pockets full. OP may have gone full retard with BCH but that doesn't change the fact that inevitable crashes are inevitable. What I find most concerning is the other guys who have been here through a few major bear markets still think it can't happen to Bitcoin.
It will rise again, but it can't just keep going forever. It must rest sometimes. In fact, until this bull run, Bitcoin spent more time correcting than rising. This was a sustainable rally until very recently. Now it is starting to get out of hand again.

Just be careful out there!

Amazing post when you know it was written mid-December 2017. Full of common sense.


Good luck newbies, don't hesitate to ask advice here but be careful as it is pretty much a minefield.

Crypto world can be complex but try to keep it simple and most importantly try to look at both sides, read about bullish opinions but also read about bearish ones. Most important is that there should be some facts behind the opinions. An opinion saying Bitcoin will reach 100k USD this year is just as rubbish as one saying Bitcoin will reach 0 USD soon if there is no fact saying so.

Wish you the best of luck, hope you will make plenty of money 

[coupable]

You focus on a good point here. For well understanding, i want to add some notes:
✓ Users are not basicly posting their attitudes based on objectif analysis, some of them are just posting to reach the weekly posting quota exiged by sig campaigns they joined or to reach a certain number of activity in order to rank-up .
✓ Newbies suggestions are not to be fully trusted even based on good analysis so it's always recommended to make your own researches before to take it into consideration .
✓ High ranked users are not genuine by default and their opinions are not always based on the good reason or the good willingness. Always look for more critics even their post-opinon gets merit rewards .
✓ Use your brain with the sense of critic before to follow any suggestion or advice .
✓ Merits is a nice helpful sign of good posts but don't forget that in some rare cases merits are given by the poster's alts or given based on the presentation when it's well designed.
✓ Do not ever hesitate or get shy to ask whatever interrogation across your mind. There is a dedicated board for biggener's questions {this one} .

Last thing, predictions about prices and market volatility are not to be considered as valid evaluation even based on common sense. Somehow like predictions in Gambling .

[o_e_l_e_o]

Not a bad strategy, but even a scheduled buy every week is a good idea so you don’t have to watch the charts all the time. This of course is dollar cost averaging.

I mean, the post itself is pretty poor quality, but that doesn't mean that the sentiment behind it is necessarily bad advice. Dollar cost averaging is a perfectly legitimate investment plan, and over a long enough time period with bitcoin would always have made you a profit so far.

Merits is a nice helpful sign of good posts but don't forget that in some rare cases merits are given by the poster's alts or given based on the presentation when it's well designed.

Merits should absolutely not be seen as an indication of agreement of the post's contents, or as a user saying "I think this prediction is correct/accurate/will come true". Merits should be awarded to posts which are objectively high quality, and I regularly merit high quality posts I disagree with, or am even arguing against.

Users are not basicly posting their attitudes based on objectif analysis, some of them are just posting to reach the weekly posting quota exiged by sig campaigns they joined or to reach a certain number of activity in order to rank-up .

This is the main reason you shouldn't trust price predictions on here. Posting price predictions is the absolute easiest way to hit a post quote. There are hundreds of threads speculating about price, you don't have to read any of the posts which came before, your post can be completely baseless and require zero thought, and yet it will still be on topic.

[jseverson]

Not a bad strategy, but even a scheduled buy every week is a good idea so you don’t have to watch the charts all the time. This of course is dollar cost averaging.

I mean, the post itself is pretty poor quality, but that doesn't mean that the sentiment behind it is necessarily bad advice. Dollar cost averaging is a perfectly legitimate investment plan, and over a long enough time period with bitcoin would always have made you a profit so far.

While I agree (and this is what I personally do because I'm a shit trader), not everyone sees it the same way:

Dollar-Cost Averaging Doesn’t Pay
Why dollar-cost averaging doesn't make sense
Does Dollar Cost Averaging Work? (With Calculator)

It's great for eliminating biases, but it makes it incredibly easy to miss out on opportunities, especially on a market as volatile as Bitcoin's.

Even looking at its flaws though, I don't think it deserves a never do this warning for newbies. It serves as a perfectly good low-risk low-reward (compared to actual trading at least; BTC is quite inherently high-reward lol) solution for non-technical investors IMO.

[o_e_l_e_o]

It's great for eliminating biases, but it makes it incredibly easy to miss out on opportunities, especially on a market as volatile as Bitcoin's.

Sure, but as well as missing some opportunities, you also miss some big pull backs. That's the point - to smooth your entry price over time and bring it as close to the "average" as possible. If you have no desire to try to time the markets or read the charts, then it's a perfectly acceptable way for newbies to get involved in crypto.

The articles you have linked talk about DCA in the scenario of stocks and the S&P 500. These assets aren't as volatile as bitcoin, and the S&P 500 index (for example) has been on a pretty steady upward trajectory for the last 10 years. In these cases, I agree that DCA is probably a worse choice. In bitcoin, however, when the price can drop by $1000 in under an hour completely unexpectedly, then DCA helps to reduce that risk.

There's a DCA site for bitcoin as well here (https://dcabtc.com/) where you can play around with the numbers. Even if you had started DCAing in during the height of the bullrun back in December 2017, you would still be in profit today. Such is the point of DCA.

[gentlemand]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg53651914
Post #408

Not a bad strategy, but even a scheduled buy every week is a good idea so you don’t have to watch the charts all the time. This of course is dollar cost averaging.

This is the only suggestion worth bothering with and the other posts demonstrate exactly why.

If you listened to the squit from the headless chickens running around here you'd be fucked most of the time. If you bought like a robot for long enough you would be sitting pretty, and very, very prettily over the long term.

If I'd attempted to trade or time the market I am 100% certain I would have vastly less than I do now.

Here is the stat that anyone considering getting involved should have in mind and it also applies to many other markets too -



This guy is largely a silly sausage but he nails it here. I have been here long to see hundreds if not thousands of posts from people declaring they've sold all and will not enter until their target low arrives. Then we never hear from them again.

And OP, almost all of your posts seem to be about timing the market too. Your guesswork is little different to all the others you've highlighted.

[jseverson]

-snip-

Sure, but as well as missing some opportunities, you also miss some big pull backs. That's the point - to smooth your entry price over time and bring it as close to the "average" as possible. If you have no desire to try to time the markets or read the charts, then it's a perfectly acceptable way for newbies to get involved in crypto.

The articles you have linked talk about DCA in the scenario of stocks and the S&P 500. These assets aren't as volatile as bitcoin, and the S&P 500 index (for example) has been on a pretty steady upward trajectory for the last 10 years. In these cases, I agree that DCA is probably a worse choice. In bitcoin, however, when the price can drop by $1000 in under an hour completely unexpectedly, then DCA helps to reduce that risk.

There's a DCA site for bitcoin as well here (https://dcabtc.com/) where you can play around with the numbers. Even if you had started DCAing in during the height of the bullrun back in December 2017, you would still be in profit today. Such is the point of DCA.

Yeah I completely agree with that, as I said with the rest of my post. I was just trying to rationalize why OP put it in his list by pointing out that there is a school of thought out there which doesn't believe that DCA is a fundamentally sound strategy.

As far as profits go, none of the articles I have linked said that you won't profit from DCA, just that on average, DCA yielded poorer results among other methods tested. No such in-depth study (like this one) has been done on the crypto market, so I thought ones done on the stock market would be somewhat relevant to the discussion, given that there are a lot of people who apply the same principles and strategies to both.

Edit: nvm, I found one:

Conclusion
We created a simple trial comparing lump sum to the strategy of investing in the same amount monthly over a year, and found that lump sum still won ~67.9% of the time. Even the arbitrarily reduced dataset showed that Lump Sum beats DCA 60.8% of time.

I still wouldn't discourage people from doing DCA though, considering it's still a much safer way to invest your money (in BTC at least).

[figmentofmyass]

I mean, the post itself is pretty poor quality, but that doesn't mean that the sentiment behind it is necessarily bad advice. Dollar cost averaging is a perfectly legitimate investment plan, and over a long enough time period with bitcoin would always have made you a profit so far.

the important question when considering DCA is can you outperform the market?

considering the fact that 97% of traders lose money, i would assume most people are incapable of doing so. from a long term investment perspective, they are better off using DCA.

[darkangel11]

I mean, the post itself is pretty poor quality, but that doesn't mean that the sentiment behind it is necessarily bad advice. Dollar cost averaging is a perfectly legitimate investment plan, and over a long enough time period with bitcoin would always have made you a profit so far.

the important question when considering DCA is can you outperform the market?

considering the fact that 97% of traders lose money, i would assume most people are incapable of doing so. from a long term investment perspective, they are better off using DCA.

Most people can't do DCA because they get overwhelmed by negativity and sell but if you are able to do it for a year straight you are going to profit as long as Bitcoin doesn't die somewhere in the process. I'm saying that because as long as it exists it will appreciate in value.
We all know that if you started to DCA in February of 2018 so right after the first crash and continued throughout the year you'd face a hard choice in November when the price went through a second stage of the crash and lost another 50% but if you could survive that you'd profit in July 2019 and all your coins including those bought in February 2018 would bring profit.

You can literally pick any starting date in Bitcoin's history and start buying $100 of BTC each month and after 1,5 years selling ant literally any point in time will mean profit.