Short term bullish run is now over, and it was most likely a failed rally

[gabbie2010]

Now, my advice: look at the price line since October 25 when the price was at 10.4k USD, the trend was never bullish. However it was very possible to make nice money (started several threads to recommend buying at 6.5kish in November and December).

Important price next: 8.5k, we go below and we see 7k most likely again.

Other important prices:
-6.4k: the obvious one, strong support for now but will it hold? I think it will not.
-10.5k: major resistance (stronger than 9.2k), breaking above 10.5k would mean a nice bullish run but very unlikely for this year.
-13.5K-14k: the price everyone is waiting for, if we break above we will see a new all time high (but not likely either for 2020 in my opinion).

In the short term, 7k is likely to be seen (again). Sadly no bullish indicator for 2020. Not yet.

I don’t think so that this will be the last bull rally in the short term, in fact a correction was long overdue and now that the correction has been done we may see more bull rallies happening in the short term. Also not sure what do you mean by no bullish indicator for 2020, because everyone knows that the halving event is the biggest trigger for bitcoin related bull rallies in 2020.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/01/20/bitcoin-halving-isnt-priced-in-based-on-this-indicator-which-means-price-will-react/

I believed the OP overall judgment is based on the technical analysis without considering the fundamental aspect of it, the link above said it all, personally I think price movement of bitcoin or volatility is based on and positive or negative news thus in most instances defies TA, I also agreed that the correction of the price had ended the price had been forming higher low after breaking the last higher swing based on daily chart frame all these is an indication of bullish sentiments.

[Yaunfitda]

I don't know how we can call it a failed rally. It's too early to say, we need to wait further, perhaps April to see what really is going on the market. Is the block halving already price in or not?

Currently, I have seen a strong support @$8600 but if this is broken, then obviously the price will go further down. However, it is not the case, maybe the bulls is trying to get a grip of the market already in preparation of the halving in May.

[btc_angela]

I thought right now that we are supposed to see under $8,500 again because it's been $8,500+ but my speculation and expectation didn't go through. The price suddenly rose and managed to stand again to $8,700.

This is also what I thought initially, when I see the price going down in the last couple of days.

I'd say it's all over again, but then again, the price remains along the $8600-$8700 very surprising and I will say that we are still in the bullish trend, at least. So this might continue up until the end of the month, the bullishness of the market, the sentiments of the investors and confidence are still here.

[Wexlike]

*skip*
Other important prices:
-6.4k: the obvious one, strong support for now but will it hold? I think it will not.
-10.5k: major resistance (stronger than 9.2k), breaking above 10.5k would mean a nice bullish run but very unlikely for this year.
-13.5K-14k: the price everyone is waiting for, if we break above we will see a new all time high (but not likely either for 2020 in my opinion).

In the short term, 7k is likely to be seen (again). Sadly no bullish indicator for 2020. Not yet.

I would like to comment on your price points:

-6.4k: strong buyers support and smart money accumulation - I agree
-10.5k: possible high resistance level, I agree, but could be smashed rather easily. Just look at the 2019 bull run.
-13.5k: I don't see this zone as a "make it or break it"-ATH indicator.

We have so little trading volume above 13.5k, that I would consider everything above it as "no mans land".

[sunsilk]

I thought right now that we are supposed to see under $8,500 again because it's been $8,500+ but my speculation and expectation didn't go through. The price suddenly rose and managed to stand again to $8,700.

This is also what I thought initially, when I see the price going down in the last couple of days.

I'd say it's all over again, but then again, the price remains along the $8600-$8700 very surprising and I will say that we are still in the bullish trend, at least. So this might continue up until the end of the month, the bullishness of the market, the sentiments of the investors and confidence are still here.

It could be the support again for bitcoin and that's the usual pricing whenever we see some corrections on its way. Others doesn't seem to be convinced that we're on the bullish trend as of looking to the charts of bitcoin.

Because they are only convinced that we're going bullish if the price never stops dropping. That's their basis to say that the bull has ended and it's their opinion regards to the market.

[alexsandria]

Bitcoin prices have dropped to  $8500 maybe there will not be bullish again? I do not have a technical analysis of this bitcoin because bitcoin is difficult to guess in the future price.
Will it be possible to return to $7000? even though you have failed the rally but it is only at the beginning of the year there is hope for the future to rally again and can see the movement in the market.

If we will look on the chart for the whole month, then I could say yes but narrowing it down, looking more closely I don't we are just going back down at $7,000 way easy, we are just bouncing back at $8,600 and it seems solid at such point. So we might be able to see $9,000 once again or luckily even touch $10,000 sooner. However when it drops, I don't think it will stop at 8.6k or even 7k, which I fear the most.

[bitbunnny]

Bitcoin prices have dropped to  $8500 maybe there will not be bullish again? I do not have a technical analysis of this bitcoin because bitcoin is difficult to guess in the future price.
Will it be possible to return to $7000? even though you have failed the rally but it is only at the beginning of the year there is hope for the future to rally again and can see the movement in the market.

If we will look on the chart for the whole month, then I could say yes but narrowing it down, looking more closely I don't we are just going back down at $7,000 way easy, we are just bouncing back at $8,600 and it seems solid at such point. So we might be able to see $9,000 once again or luckily even touch $10,000 sooner. However when it drops, I don't think it will stop at 8.6k or even 7k, which I fear the most.

I think that further corrections will happen and 7000$ isn't that bad. To expect now the constant growth of price isn't that easy and no matter how 9000$ looks close to my opinion that boundary will be hard to cross. For a while we might have price fluctuations similar like now and the price will probably stay somwhere in the current range.

[2double0]

OP, your chart is worth a thousand spits and not words.
I am not sorry for my words because you are just seeing a 6H chart and to define history, you will need to consider higher range timeframe in your charts before outlining a possible break downwards moving us into the bearish situation. I do not see BTC to be coming below $7500 during 2020 at the least, so mark my words if you want to.

[JL0]

OP, your chart is worth a thousand spits and not words.
I am not sorry for my words because you are just seeing a 6H chart and to define history, you will need to consider higher range timeframe in your charts before outlining a possible break downwards moving us into the bearish situation. I do not see BTC to be coming below $7500 during 2020 at the least, so mark my words if you want to.

I hope so 

[STT]

Its a reasonable observation but there's never just one trend or idea driving a market.   I agree its likely we've played this one out of immediate energy,  this is just about the short term trades and swings to price not the grander moves in Bitcoin.   Just plain volatility can move us to 10k imo though thats not so frequently happening.
   We've perhaps lost the majority of momentum occurring after trading back above 50 day average but its probably a case of waiting for price to level out before we rise again.    I do wonder if a reset can bring us back down to 8000 for the July trend break but I'm not expecting much more then that in terms of failure before it rebuilds and reattempts the 200 day average which admittedly is one of the most commonly watched indicators.

[Oasisman]

~snip~

If we will look on the chart for the whole month, then I could say yes but narrowing it down, looking more closely I don't we are just going back down at $7,000 way easy, we are just bouncing back at $8,600 and it seems solid at such point. So we might be able to see $9,000 once again or luckily even touch $10,000 sooner. However when it drops, I don't think it will stop at 8.6k or even 7k, which I fear the most.

Bitcoin just touched the $9,000 level a few days ago and now it's stabilizing at around $8,600. So, if Bitcoin continue to drop below $8,000 level does that mean we're going to be afraid? I think you should not be afraid of, people who's frequently looking at the market are usually those who is holding for long term. Price movements are normal. The most important thing to keep in mind is to hit the price target before selling.

[asus09]

~snip~

If we will look on the chart for the whole month, then I could say yes but narrowing it down, looking more closely I don't we are just going back down at $7,000 way easy, we are just bouncing back at $8,600 and it seems solid at such point. So we might be able to see $9,000 once again or luckily even touch $10,000 sooner. However when it drops, I don't think it will stop at 8.6k or even 7k, which I fear the most.

Bitcoin just touched the $9,000 level a few days ago and now it's stabilizing at around $8,600. So, if Bitcoin continue to drop below $8,000 level does that mean we're going to be afraid? I think you should not be afraid of, people who's frequently looking at the market are usually those who is holding for long term. Price movements are normal. The most important thing to keep in mind is to hit the price target before selling.

Down trend with bitcoin after raise $9,000 and now back drastically with lower price more than $700 in few hours, I think need higher and bigger amount back up to make bitcoin keep on higher price and not worry because at the future bitcoin will go on to higher price, need time to make bitcoin back with higher price and take best way for investing.

[jostorres]

There are correct assumptions here and there are wrong ones as well. The reality is, if we go under 8.5k we could totally go under 8k as well, that is not wrong and that could very well happen, however at the same time if we go up over 9.4k we could also see 11k as well, there is nothing stopping us all the way to 10.8k and that means we will most likely break 10k along with 9.4k.

Maybe it will go down, maybe it will go up, there is no reason to think bullish run is over, just because one correction doesn't equal to everything being doomed at all, sure its not good that it happened but I feel like this will make sure we have a smoother sailing towards high as well. Lets just wait before we jump to any conclusions, at least we should see some small movements before we decide.

[bitvalak]

The time frame you are using is too small, try using a weekly or monthly time frame. You will see a correction pattern from a bullish, weekly time frame I think is enough to see price movements in 2020. There have been 3x price rejections in November 2019, December 2019, and January 2020 in the $ 7000 area and I believe $ 7000 is the strongest support area for now. Then there is a price correction from the previous bearish trend which has reached more than 50%, is it possible it's just a correction? In my opinion it is not a price correction, but a reversal of the trend that began on January 3, 2020.

[piebeyb]

it doesn't matter if the 1W trend fails or the rally fails because there is still time in the next few weeks, why not wait and relax for a moment, I'm happy how the whales play with prices and charts, when everything will explode suddenly, I just use 1D trend in this picture, sorry I'm just a beginner, hopefully it doesn't drop below $ 7800
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZOr3KVis/

[BrewMaster]

Bitcoin prices have dropped to  $8500 maybe there will not be bullish again? I do not have a technical analysis of this bitcoin because bitcoin is difficult to guess in the future price.
Will it be possible to return to $7000? even though you have failed the rally but it is only at the beginning of the year there is hope for the future to rally again and can see the movement in the market.

If we will look on the chart for the whole month, then I could say yes but narrowing it down, looking more closely I don't we are just going back down at $7,000 way easy, we are just bouncing back at $8,600 and it seems solid at such point. So we might be able to see $9,000 once again or luckily even touch $10,000 sooner. However when it drops, I don't think it will stop at 8.6k or even 7k, which I fear the most.

I think that further corrections will happen and 7000$ isn't that bad. To expect now the constant growth of price isn't that easy and no matter how 9000$ looks close to my opinion that boundary will be hard to cross. For a while we might have price fluctuations similar like now and the price will probably stay somwhere in the current range.

but if there were any more corrections on the way then they would have started already. not to mention that there isn't anything left to correct! price went up to $9k and then saw a little correction where it came back to $8.5k again and that was the only correction needed. anything more is not going to be a correction but an unreasonable drop.

[gabmen]

The time frame you are using is too small, try using a weekly or monthly time frame. You will see a correction pattern from a bullish, weekly time frame I think is enough to see price movements in 2020. There have been 3x price rejections in November 2019, December 2019, and January 2020 in the $ 7000 area and I believe $ 7000 is the strongest support area for now. Then there is a price correction from the previous bearish trend which has reached more than 50%, is it possible it's just a correction? In my opinion it is not a price correction, but a reversal of the trend that began on January 3, 2020.

The chart can be interpreted in several ways. I do think what's happening is just a correction leading to march, and this correction won't be sustained to consider it as a trend reversal. People would consider a dip a good chance to prepare for the halving aftermath. Though this is just my take on what's happening and it's basically just as good as yours or anyone else's.

[fabiorem]

The price have got out of the red alignment zone:



However, market sentiment is neutral, with a score of 49 in the CFGI. No sign of a bull run yet.

[worle1bm]

Important price next: 8.5k, we go below and we see 7k most likely again.

Sad but true image. 
Rally has broken and price may decline from here. But I don't agree with your $8.5K mark. It is evident from the chart that break point will be between $7800-8000. As far as price is above $8K, market may move sideways for next few days and may result in new rally if someone inject buy orders into the market.

We are actually tanking as of this moment and this is where waiting game begins yet the price had already started to go sideways once again and trying to figure it out on what would comes next?

Im not really fan on precisely following trend lines or indicators specially if theres a pattern on where the trend tends to break.Yes, we can presume but theres only two way either it would rally up
or would dump down.So for now, im preparing my stash for possible accumulation if ever it would crash.

It looks like I was right about the market. The price is moving between the mark of $8300 and $8600. Actually it is good for market to remain in this position for next few days. Stability around $8400 will ensure that another confirmed rally will come before the end of January. Another interesting thing is the sharp decline in the market volume. Daily trade volume for Bitcoin has declining since last week and came down to $20B from $32B. It also indicates that we gonna see trade reversal.

[KnightElite]

The price breakdown in its previous support, the 20 MA is now also resisting at the price. If the 20 MA will strikes down and become support then the market will likely to go up again. I do not think that it is just a short term bullish. The bitcoin just lose momentum but if there is a massive volume again, then we will see upward movement in the chart. What happened is just a reset so we should not panic because of that.