Chinese New Year - Crypto Market

[yslyv]

I've heard so many times about the effect of Chinese New Year on crypto market. The thesis is chinese new year may cause a periodical market anomaly every year.

It is well known that in stock markets may occour periodically at the same dates of the year like holiday effects etc.

Do you think it can be also a factor for crypto market and bitcoin price?

Below see a chart that shows the monthly bitcoin price changes since 2015.

5 days left for the Chinese New Year. Do you think this year will be same as previous ones or chinese new year thesis will be refutated?

We will wait and see.

[Mahanton]

Also to this link aside from chart of yours talking about price drops during Chinese new year:
https://cryptopotato.com/chinese-new-years-coming-up-price-history-reveals-bitcoin-bulls-should-be-worried/

Answer to the question if it would happen the same thing for this year? No one knows yet seeing the past wont precisely mean
that it would happen on the present or future.

[bitbunnny]

Every year we have the same discussion about chinese new year and Bitcoin price. There isn't any proven connection however speculations continue. It's almost like Bitcoin users are trying to find some kind of justification and cause for every time the price goes up or down but things are not so easy.

[bamboylee]

Chinese New Year in the past years (in exception of 2017) was celebrated in February and they were all green. So if the price holds until the Chinese new year, then history will hold true.

[senin]

Chinese New Year in the past years (in exception of 2017) was celebrated in February and they were all green. So if the price holds until the Chinese new year, then history will hold true.

I was also surprised that they write here that the Chinese New Year will come in five days. In previous years, this forum wrote that the New Year in China is celebrated on February 15.
Just interested in this event on Google. It turns out that the New Year in China according to the eastern calendar is celebrated at different times depending on the date of the solstice. This year it begins on January 25th and will be celebrated until February 10th. As far as I remember, there was no cryptocurrency market growth at this time. However, the above table shows a steady increase in the price of bitcoin in February. Well, let's see what happens this year.

[CryptoBry]

While there is no guarantee that the same thing can be happening again and again, there is a factor of self-fulfilling prophecy here. When a critical number of people are convinced that it can be back again, then there is a big possibility that it will. Rational or irrational it maybe. Now, the real test is on eating the pudding so let's watch this one and see what happened after the Chinese New Year if it got good or bad effect on the prices of cryptocurrencies in the market.

[squatz1]

This isn't a real thing, the Chinese new year has no effect on the crypto market or anything along those lines. None of these things have any sort of effect on the market -- the Wall Street bonuses don't do anything, nor do some random holiday in the middle of Indonesia, nor does some random law passed in some no name country.

The only thing you could convince me of effecting the crypto price (and the stock market price) would be the end of year tax loss harvesting in Crypto (and in traditional stocks)

But in reality this doesn't mean anything, Crypto goes up and crypto goes down, just like the stock market. People just write news on 'why' after the fact which is typically bullshit and made up.

[ragavancoin]

This isn't a real thing, the Chinese new year has no effect on the crypto market or anything along those lines. None of these things have any sort of effect on the market -- the Wall Street bonuses don't do anything, nor do some random holiday in the middle of Indonesia, nor does some random law passed in some no name country.

The only thing you could convince me of effecting the crypto price (and the stock market price) would be the end of year tax loss harvesting in Crypto (and in traditional stocks)

But in reality this doesn't mean anything, Crypto goes up and crypto goes down, just like the stock market. People just write news on 'why' after the fact which is typically bullshit and made up.

Yes your right Chinese new year has no effect on crypto market. As you have mentioned yes crypto market goes up and down for that reason we cannot compare it's all because of Chinese new year. Just we will have to wait for the best to happen. Hope this year it will increase finger cross.

[leyton11]

I think it will definitely have a big impact and it will tend to dump. because in China there are a lot of rich people who make a fortune from bitcoin mining and there is also a lot of bitcoins produced there. So when their Lunar New Year is coming, people will be selling bitcoins to make money and enjoy the Tet holiday, so this is a bad time to trade any coin. Let's wait for their new year to come and we will start to catch up with the market again.

[mu_enrico]

This idea is similar to "Sell in May and go away" or "Halloween effect."

From 1950 to around 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had an average return of only 0.3% during the May to October period, compared with an average gain of 7.5% during the November to April period, according to a 2017 column in Forbes. While the exact reasons for this seasonal trading pattern were not known, lower trading volumes due to the summer vacation months and increased investment flows during the winter months were cited as contributory reasons for the discrepancy in performance between the May to October and the November to April periods.

However, recent statistics suggest that this seasonal pattern may not be the case anymore. According to a May 2018 article in Investor's Business Daily, if an investor had sold stock in May 2016, she would have missed some lucrative runs. The NASDAQ ended April 2016 at 4775.36; it closed higher in May and soared in late June. The NASDAQ rose by 55% from the end of June 2016 until the end of January 2018.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp

I think the reason for such an anomaly is trading activity. If the majority of traders out for vacation, it is understandable if the trading activity will decline, along with the price. However, don't forget that in this modern era, traders still can use their smartphone anywhere to do some trading activity. Also, not all of us are Chinese and would ignore the Chinese New Year.

[Kemarit]

Hmm, they said it in 2018, and then 2019, LOL, by now we can say that there is no effect whatsoever on the crypto market regarding the Chinese Lunar New Year. I still vividly remember in 2018, people are very exciting and saying that the price will pick up again after the celebration. However, the opposite did happen. The price plummet and it was the start of the bear market. So for me, there is no correlation with any celebrations, investors are going to pour their money regardless if it is Christmas or whatever holidays it is.

[btc_angela]

We will have to see, since we are in a sort of mini bull run, who knows, maybe some wealthy Chinese will suddenly invest tons of money prior or after their New year. Chinese are very superstitious, and it could be that they are just waiting for the right time here and see what the new Lunar year can bring to them. So let's just hope for the best.

[blckhawk]

People often correlate various holidays to price movements. And while it may be partially true to economic markets, I don't think it always affects Bitcoin in any way. Traditional economic markets such as stock and commodities have a very much difference with Bitcoin's decentralized, digital market. Bitcoin is 24/7, with a market that does not actually care that much on such events, aside from most important like Christmas.

[Clairvoyance]

I think we'll just have to wait and see. There are no definite factors that affects Bitcoin's pricing during Chinese New Year. Moreover, majority of cryptocurrencies are held by Asia. Take also in consideration that not all traders are Chinese which can be a factor in which Chinese New Year may not be relevant at all in terms of pricing.

[d.kevin29]

I see it as a placebo. Many events are thought to be influencing the prices and whenever they don't, there's suddenly a reason the market didn't go the predicted way. Whenever they do though, there's always the "I TOLD YOU!" follow-up commentary.

[Wexnident]

Most Chinese New Years brought greens a few days after it, but then proceeded to go back to normal prices afterwards. It actually lacks any type of effect towards the long term of BTC. Its kind of a temporary event that boosts BTC upwards, but not much though. It is a holiday that affects a huge amount of population, so it is reasonable that the market prices are affected, even by a bit.

[Doell]

crypto market will not be affected we are aware that the speculation of every holiday is identical to falling prices impact is not certain ,bitcoin does't rule out the possibility of going down but the correction cannot be sure right yet and vacation moments including chinese new year often make bitcoin prices also rise I not wrong to see it all

[Cvetik56]

Chinese New Year in the past years (in exception of 2017) was celebrated in February and they were all green. So if the price holds until the Chinese new year, then history will hold true.

But I don't think price went high in 2018 on the Chinese new year episode because 2018 was really bear for bitcoin and crypto which we are about coming out from lately. Therefore, I'm trying to see the relationship of them all with the Chinese new year.

Unfortunately for all traders there are no strict rules in market's behavior.
There could be a correlation between Chinese new year and Btc's price, but its all more of a repetitive coincidence than a rule

[merchantofzeny]

Every year we have the same discussion about chinese new year and Bitcoin price. There isn't any proven connection however speculations continue. It's almost like Bitcoin users are trying to find some kind of justification and cause for every time the price goes up or down but things are not so easy.

Maybe coz it sound simple enough. "There's a big celebration > People need the money > They take some out from the crypto > Price drops > Celebration ends > They buy crypto again > Price rises"

Of course that's not always the case but I think if enough people believe it, it can be a self-fulfilling prediction. So in a way, it is something that is worth observing, even if you don't subscribe to it.

[Kimonoe]

Chinese New Year in the past years (in exception of 2017) was celebrated in February and they were all green. So if the price holds until the Chinese new year, then history will hold true.

But I don't think price went high in 2018 on the Chinese new year episode because 2018 was really bear for bitcoin and crypto which we are about coming out from lately. Therefore, I'm trying to see the relationship of them all with the Chinese new year.

Indeed, during the Chinese New Year in 2018 the market has increased, but I think traders on big holidays will rest and reduce trading volume. therefore I think after the Chinese new year the market response will increase and will certainly move the market. but that can't be a benchmark, because not every event has the same trend