Total Bitcoin lost to date?

[Bttzed03]

The news of Peter Schiff losing his bitcoin sparked my interest again into digging how many btc's are lost forever. The only study I can find is the report by Chainanalysis where they claim that between 2.3 and 3.7 million (or 3.8 million) bitcoin are lost.

Between 2.3 and 3.7 million bitcoin are lost, reducing market capitalisation by between 13% and 22%. Market capitalisation could be reduced by a further 35% if illiquid investor holdings are removed from the cap.

As of April 2018, of the 21 million bitcoin that will ever exist, around 4 million are currently unmined, at least 2.3 million are lost, 7.4 million are held as long term investments - of which a further 1.5 million could be lost, 2.2 million are held for transactions by services, such as exchanges, and 5.1 million are held for speculation.

That report, however, was published last 2018. Assuming Peter's claim and the several "I lost my btc" threads here are true, what do you think is the current estimate of total lost bitcoin?

(edit: it looks like blockchain.com is fixing Peter's "lost btc" issue from their reply so forget about that in making your estimates  )


It is safe to say that more and more will be added to the total until the last bitcoin is mined. By the year 2140, btc's total supply in circulation could be more or less 10 million. I can't imagine the effect of that on the price.

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[HeRetiK]

That report, however, was published last 2018. Assuming Peter's claim and the several "I lost my btc" threads here are true, what do you think is the current estimate of total lost bitcoin?

Most coins were lost in the early days, so any coins that are being lost now are little more than a drop in the bucket. Also I think it's fairly safe to assume that the majority of people and companies holding significant amount of coins nowadays know better than to lose their password, so the amount of coins being lost over the next few years will probably be rather limited.

[bitcampaign]

if he often opens his wallet and accesses his wallet he should not forget his password even he also says, he doesn't forget his password, if he has problems with his cellphone wallet blockchain app he should be able to access and open it through a laptop or other browser, I think he is just looking for sensation only and as usual want to drop the price of bitcoin which is being corrected at this time, but usually he always gives negative comments on bitcoin but people always respond positively

[Fundamentals Of]

(edit: it looks like blockchain.com is fixing Peter's "lost btc" issue from their reply so forget about that in making your estimates  )

Is the amount already divulged to the public? This is what I am waiting to know. Is the amount small enough for Peter to simply forget his password on the very wallet in which the Bitcoin is stored or is it huge enough for him to make it a very huge issue internationally? Either way, he looks senile.

It is safe to say that more and more will be added to the total until the last bitcoin is mined. By the year 2140, btc's total supply in circulation could be more or less 10 million. I can't imagine the effect of that on the price.

The irreversibility of Bitcoin transactions might one day leave this world with an endangered or even extinct Bitcoin.

[Darooghe]

If you ask me, I would to say there's actually no way to tell. The reason is that there's no marker to differentiate between coin to which the private keys are lost or coin that are in someone's long term storage. Just because they're sitting and have not moved does not make them lost. However, The number of all coins that are lost will be less than the amount that is in circulation. we use Days Destroyed to measure the amount of the total supply that is moved around. there is no other way to estimate the upper limit of bitcoins that are lost.

[hugeblack]

I don't think it's worrisome. I would like to quote a saying by Satoshi Nakamoto about losing currencies:

Satoshi Nakamoto - "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone."

Also, no one can confirm the exact amount of lost currency, for example, the currencies Satoshi own is unknown and most people may have get accesses to old unmoved coins.


Generally, the greatest amount of those coina were in the past and the number will decrease as more knowledge about cryptocurrencies increases, think of them as a donation.

[LbtalkL]

I saw his tweet a few minutes after it was published, I guess this dude is just making noise. There is no way you will lose your bitcoin if you save your Passphrase and private keys. This dude is only talking about a password. It is a user error. He is saying it is his life saving and later on tweeted that those bitcoin was gifted to him, obviously he just want to have some attention.

Anyways I think there is no way to determine the exact amount of bitcoin that was lost it is just statistics but maybe those statistics are close enough to the correct amount. In the year 2140, all we can do is dream maybe bitcoin price reaches bottom zero or maybe $1M, we can start now saving for our grandchildren.

[DdmrDdmr]

<…>

There is a more recent Coinmetrics survey on the matter, dating from November 2019 (see https://coinmetrics.substack.com/p/coin-metrics-state-of-the-network-d2e). In this analysis they estimate the amount of lost BTCs to be at least 1,5 million, which differs from the data in the survey referenced in the OP ,and goes to show that survey estimates offer a wide range of values in accordance to the methodology they use.

For example, Coinmetrics details their estimate as follows:

Their approach seems rather much from the technical point of view, and playing it safe by stating those that are "known" to be lost (assuming the Zombie Coins last touched in 2010 do not resurrect at some point), but they really do not go into trying to play around with estimating the number of lost BTCs due to loss of private keys, sending then to the wrong address/chain, etc. Coinmetrics’ survey would therefore stand as a conservative lower bound estimate, probably correct from a technical point of view, but not representative of the real scenario of lost BTCs.

[sovie]

If you ask me, I would to say there's actually no way to tell. The reason is that there's no marker to differentiate between coin to which the private keys are lost or coin that are in someone's long term storage. Just because they're sitting and have not moved does not make them lost. However, The number of all coins that are lost will be less than the amount that is in circulation. we use Days Destroyed to measure the amount of the total supply that is moved around. there is no other way to estimate the upper limit of bitcoins that are lost.

Yes no one can tell with precision that how many BTC are lost. In early days people abondan there bitcoins, there are many such. 21 million is total supply many of which are already in circulation.

[alirezakaj]

The news of Peter Schiff losing his bitcoin sparked my interest again into digging how many btc's are lost forever. The only study I can find is the report by Chainanalysis where they claim that between 2.3 and 3.7 million (or 3.8 million) bitcoin are lost.

Between 2.3 and 3.7 million bitcoin are lost, reducing market capitalisation by between 13% and 22%. Market capitalisation could be reduced by a further 35% if illiquid investor holdings are removed from the cap.

As of April 2018, of the 21 million bitcoin that will ever exist, around 4 million are currently unmined, at least 2.3 million are lost, 7.4 million are held as long term investments - of which a further 1.5 million could be lost, 2.2 million are held for transactions by services, such as exchanges, and 5.1 million are held for speculation.

That report, however, was published last 2018. Assuming Peter's claim and the several "I lost my btc" threads here are true, what do you think is the current estimate of total lost bitcoin?

(edit: it looks like blockchain.com is fixing Peter's "lost btc" issue from their reply so forget about that in making your estimates  )


It is safe to say that more and more will be added to the total until the last bitcoin is mined. By the year 2140, btc's total supply in circulation could be more or less 10 million. I can't imagine the effect of that on the price.

petter used blockchain.com service so he can recover it .   

[Lucius]

No BTC is lost forever, what can be lost is just information that allows us to control that same BTC on the blockchain, so it would be much more accurate to say that some private keys were lost.

As far as I can see Coinmetrics did not listed Satoshi mined coins, or they include them under Zombie Coins. However, they do not base their analysis on the assumption that something is lost if it has not been moved for 3-4 years. What is certainly one of the most exploited stories of losing BTC is for sure
James Howells who reportedly threw his hard drive with a total of 7500 BTC.

I believe there are more such cases, but not everyone wants to go public with such stories because they lost a fortune in a pretty stupid way. People do stupid things today, imagine what they were doing in 2009/2010 when BTC was virtually worthless ($ 0.003).

[BrewMaster]

all that stats is pure nonsense because they are basically saying that if a coin hasn't moved for n number of days then it is considered lost and that is bullshit. it is like saying if you buy a bar of gold and not sell it after a year that gold bar turns into garbage!

even people like Schiff who claim to have lost their bitcoins may be lying or best case scenario they may recover it at some point so it wasn't really lost.
the only coins that are truly lost are those that are burnt like these two cases:
1. coins that are burnt (with OP_RETURN only)
2. coins that were never claimed (that is a miner who doesn't claim the block reward.

[Ulven]

I do not think that the year 2140 will be the end of the extraction of all units BTCS!why?
We will have 21M btc and With damaged, So the network will update To continue excavation work.

[asus09]

Some one lost their bitcoin because not remember with their private key where is saving and many people lost bitcoin because they don't give and save bitcoin account wallet data to their family without pass away, maybe bitcoin supply right now have increase lower and many time cases showing in public with some one lost password with their bitcoin account and private key data.

[gentlemand]

Chainalysis only mainly have lack of movement to go on. I have coins that haven't moved for many years. They will some day.

The only categorically lost coins are those sent to burn addresses and publicly declared stuff. That only adds up to a few tens of thousands.

I'm sure it's still a considerable number but 3-4 million feels like a bit of a stretch.

[suvo05]

That report, however, was published last 2018. Assuming Peter's claim and the several "I lost my btc" threads here are true, what do you think is the current estimate of total lost bitcoin?

Most coins were lost in the early days, so any coins that are being lost now are little more than a drop in the bucket. Also I think it's fairly safe to assume that the majority of people and companies holding significant amount of coins nowadays know better than to lose their password, so the amount of coins being lost over the next few years will probably be rather limited.

If a bitcoin holder died in an accident then there is another possibility that the bitcoin will be lost from the market.  There could be lot of such cases even in past also. So we have no idea about that amount of bitcoin. I have read a news here https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/bitcoin-exchange-ceo-had-died-in-jaipur-lakh-customers-left-in-lurch-119020701293_1.html about the of the company CEO himself.

[Artemis3]

That report, however, was published last 2018. Assuming Peter's claim and the several "I lost my btc" threads here are true, what do you think is the current estimate of total lost bitcoin?

Most coins were lost in the early days, so any coins that are being lost now are little more than a drop in the bucket. Also I think it's fairly safe to assume that the majority of people and companies holding significant amount of coins nowadays know better than to lose their password, so the amount of coins being lost over the next few years will probably be rather limited.

Lose the password, not the seed words. And if your wallet is that old to not have seed words, then make a new one and move the funds to it so you can have those seed words. With the seed words you don't need a backup of the wallet either.

Best they can do is track which coins have not moved in a number of years. Since most were lost in the early days, i suppose those with 10 year+ inactivity are a safe bet.

On the other hand, most coins that there ever will, have already been made. So yeah, 18million out of 21, with 120 years to go for the remainder most of which will be minted earlier since production (mining) is designed to slowdown into a crawl.

[johnwest]

I have thought about this lots of times in the past and all the times I have felt sadness or pity on the people who lost them either for technical error or physical issues. I had heard about a guy who had mined bitcoins in the early days but recycled his computer and never bothered to back up his wallet. I still remember vividly, he was crying for months for his lost bitcoins. I feel there should be a solution for this but then the solution might be used to hack other wallets so best way is to keep yourself secure.

[QuickReview]

Re: Total Bitcoin lost to date?

As you say it - to date-.
Bitcoins are lost temporarily.
"first generation quantum computers" will get the "lost" P2PK coins.
"second generation quantum computers" will get the all the other "lost" coins.

The first quantum computers won't be able to mine Bitcoin because they will not have enough qubits to get the hash of the next block. For that task 2^128 basic quantum operations are needed. That is something for the "second generation quantum computers".
But to get the privatekey only 128^3 basic quantum operations are sufficient and will be within the range of "first generation quantum computers".
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Quantum_computing_and_Bitcoin

And for the "second generation quantum computers" people are already developing post SHA-hash signature systems. So we would then change to post SHA-hash signature systems before "second generation quantum computers" exist.

Post quantum we will have lots of forks. But the quantum upgraded original chain with all the mined coins will be the strongest. Anyone who has the privatekey of an old address can now move their coins and they will be quantum secure. Otherwise they are 'shalecoins' and have no owner and will be 'fracked'. These coins are the reward of their 'frackers'. If some think that the 'shalecoins' should be locked/destroyed, they can use the fork with excluded 'shalecoins'. They are already discussing such things: Fork and Destroy Satoshi's 1 million Bitcoin? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5131393.0

No matter what, a decade is not such a long time. We should be discussing this stuff today.

Yes, squatter.
Quantum computers will surprise the Bitcoin community. The 'shalecoins' will be moved and will become active. Thereafter BTC owners will decide, which fork they want to use.

I have no idea and I just learned it from this thread. Those coins in Satoshi's wallet will then be activated which sooner there might not have forgotten coins after all. I guess we can all say Bitcoin will live on to be 21M in total. Nothings wasted and SAtoshi has really thought all of these will happen one day.

[cr1776]

... (assuming the Zombie Coins last touched in 2010 do not resurrect at some point)
...

Assuming coins haven't moved since 2010 are lost is a poor assumption for at least some percentage of them.  Slashdot's first article on it was July 2010 and a lot of people got involved and started mining then and just mined into an address and left them. 

It reminds me of the (continual it seems) proposals to require coins to be moved in order to keep them - one should not assume that coins that are of X age are lost.