[Charts] Cyrpto Market Weekly MA Bullcross & Altcoin Dominance Looking Bullish

[dragonvslinux]

Looking at the VPVR (Volume Profile Volume Range) on BTC.D, we are currently at the Point of Control at the lower end of the dense volume range from the April 2019 rally:



We are below the logarithmic support trendline from 2018 & 2019 as well as the 200 Week MA and now appear to be finding resistance from the VPVR POC. That's 3x bearish factors. On a side note, notice how the 200 Week MA has been moving downwards (bearish) and now crossed below the mid-level line of the bear channel. It goes without saying, that a re-test of higher levels would very likely be rejected by this strong resistance area (68.2-68.4%). Likewise, the altcoin dominance support is therefore around 31.6-31.8%.

On a smaller time-frame, the 4hr, the descending triangle is still looking bearish while looking to confirm it's third touchpoint ont he resistance downtrend:



As referenced above, the measured move is to 65.5% dominance (-2.23%), although notably the dominance has been shifting recently due to CMC market cap changes/updates.

[1714622771]

1714622771

[1714622771]

1714622771

[1714622771]

1714622771

[1714622771]

1714622771

[1714622771]

1714622771

[dragonvslinux]

We are below the logarithmic support trendline from 2018 & 2019 as well as the 200 Week MA and now appear to be finding resistance from the VPVR POC. That's 3x bearish factors. On a side note, notice how the 200 Week MA has been moving downwards (bearish) and now crossed below the mid-level line of the bear channel. It goes without saying, that a re-test of higher levels would very likely be rejected by this strong resistance area (68.2-68.4%).

As expected, dominance is getting rejected at this "tri-point" (confluence) of resistance; VPVR PoC, logirthimic support turned resistance and again the 200 Week MA. Very bearish.



4hr descending triangle previously referenced has been invalidated, however a new bearish channel is forming (within the longer-term bearish channel). Still bearish:



OP charts updated with latest screenshots. Crypto market is signalling the long trade, as referenced in description, am awaiting for a Weekly close.
Altcoin dominance puling back but finding support from the 200 Week MA, no long trade signal yet.

[dragonvslinux]

Quick update to the following chart (that's currently within the trigger zone for a long position based on original publication):

Due to CMC recalculations the "goalpost" has been moved to $252B, see the green line blow:



Regardless of this, crypto market cap is now above key resistance level from it's long-term descending triangle breakdown support (that turned resistance):



Hence waiting for a Weekly close above this resistance level (and previous recent high of $252B) before entering into any further positions.
On a Daily scale, the market looks like it's trying to turn this resistance into support which is a bullish sign.

[dragonvslinux]

OP updated with screenshots from the Weekly close.

Altcoin dominance trade cancelled as Green 3 failed to move above the Green 2 for the ideal sequential trade (*). Now we are on a Green 4, which while is still bullish, isn't the perfect TD trade that I was looking to execute (as this could end up being 1-4 candle correction, as opposed to a 1-9 sequential count). Will now look to target the 200 Week MA support levels, if the mid-level of the bull channel holds as support. Note; I'm still in longs from Sept/Oct 2019, but not intending to open any new altcoin trades on a breakout above previous highs, based on the Weekly chart at least (the Daily/4hr is very different story, see below).

(*) On the chart below it shows dominance making a new yearly high (33.76%), however, the actual BTC.D dominance chart failed to make new yearly lows (now at 66.07% due to cmc recalculations).
Reminder: Always check the live charts before executing any trades. Do not follow trade me, no refunds.

Altcoin Dominance Eyeing Up A Breakout to 40% - Cancelled Long

In contrast, this trade was activated. For reference, the key difference here is entering the market with USD diversified into BTC and Altcoins (market weighted) on this breakout, instead of selling more BTC for altcoins such as the above trade. While there is still a high probablity of a pull-back, there is also a high probability of further upside before this pullback that could lead to much higher highs than the anticipated lows.
Therefore, on a reward/risk basis of 2:1 and given the Weekly MA support nearby, trades were activated. I now believe the crypto market to of broken out of it's 2 year-long downtrend.

Cyrpto Market About To Bullcross: 50 & 100 Week MA - Active Long

For reference/transparency sake, the order of the charts were changed, given that one trade is now active (relevant), one trade has been cancelled (irrelevant).


BTC.D on a Daily time-frame

• Still within bearish channel, as a bear flag, with around a -3% measured move.
• TD sequential bearish Red 3 (moving below Red 2 would active a short trade)
• RSI bearish at 32, close to oversold conditions <30.
• CMF neutral, declining slightly so slightly bearish
• MACD bear-crossing today, confirmation on close:

[dragonvslinux]

Despite backing out of this long on a Weekly scale (would prefer to wait for re-test of the 200 Week MA support), the Daily/4hr is playing out very bearishly right now after breaking down from the long-term and short-term bearish channels:



I still think a lot of this depends on the Weekly, but so far so good.

[dragonvslinux]

I normally don't do mid-week updates due to the "noise", but as I was playing the breakout on the Daily chart (after cancelling the long on the Weekly chart for altcoin dominance), dominance has now reached the 50 Week MA (purple line) on a Green 4 TD sequential. This is why I backed out of this Weekly trade, I'm not a fan of Green 4's at MA resistance.

For those trading shorter time-frames, it's a good time to tighten stop losses or take profits. As referenced previously, I expect some resistance at this level, but for it to ultimately be broken, whether that means coming back down to the 200 Week MA over the coming weeks to find support or not. I've taken some satoshi profits, but otherwise leaving long positions from October 2019 from 30.5% altcoin dominance (1.5% under the 200 Week MA now) on break even stop losses as macro trades, as opposed to swing trades.

Altcoin Dominance Eyeing Up A Breakout to 40% - Cancelled Long

In contrast, this is looking great to me as the market is above all it's long-term MAs, stop losses now break even 

Cyrpto Market About To Bullcross: 50 & 100 Week MA - Active Long

[dragonvslinux]

I normally don't do mid-week updates due to the "noise", but as I was playing the breakout on the Daily chart (after cancelling the long on the Weekly chart for altcoin dominance), dominance has now reached the 50 Week MA (purple line) on a Green 4 TD sequential. This is why I backed out of this Weekly trade, I'm not a fan of Green 4's at MA resistance.

Latest TA based on Daily time-frame:

Don't Underestimate the TD Sequential 9 & 50 Week MA



As can be seen on the Daily chart using the TI Indicator, we are currently at the 50 Week MA on a Sequential 9. While the long-term 200 Week MA is sloping downwards (has a bearish posture), the 50 Week MA is rising (has a bullish posture). It's also clear from previous TD 9's, whether buy or sell signals, have been very reliable in calling short-term tops and bottoms. The RSI is also considerably oversold.

I'm still bearish on Bitcoin dominance long-term, but remaining neutral as dominance is likely to find short-term support from current levels. It'd be reasonable to believe that dominance will retest the bear flag breakdown level, VPVR resistance as well as 21 Day MA around 66%, or even as high as the 200 Day MA at 69% that is now started to slope downwards confirming long-term bearish pressure.

TI Indicator: https://tonevays.com/indicator

A zoomed out view of the Weekly chart for reference sake. In my opinion, based on the logarithmic long-term trend-lines, we broke out of the bullish channels weeks ago. On a linear scale, we are doing so this week apparently.



Disclosure: This is a C&P post due to server being down earlier.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3TzVgGyBFs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wBg1lBKtyg

[dragonvslinux]

References added to OP.

References:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3TzVgGyBFs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wBg1lBKtyg

[dragonvslinux]

While we didn't find the bounce from the TD 9, and therefore bounced later than expected, Bitcoin dominance is now back above the 50 Week MA.

As can be seen on the Daily chart using the TI Indicator, we are currently at the 50 Week MA on a Sequential 9. While the long-term 200 Week MA is sloping downwards (has a bearish posture), the 50 Week MA is rising (has a bullish posture). It's also clear from previous TD 9's, whether buy or sell signals, have been very reliable in calling short-term tops and bottoms. The RSI is also considerably oversold.

My previous outlook remains the same regarding re-test targets. BTC dominance is currently testing the 66% level - the bear flag breakdown level and VPVR resistance, as previously anticipated:

I'm still bearish on Bitcoin dominance long-term, but remaining neutral as dominance is likely to find short-term support from current levels. It'd be reasonable to believe that dominance will retest the bear flag breakdown level, VPVR resistance as well as 21 Day MA around 66%, or even as high as the 200 Day MA at 69% that is now started to slope downwards confirming long-term bearish pressure.

If dominance re-tests the downwards sloping 200 Day MA, following the death cross that occurred, this would be a good opportunity for again longing altcoins based on the risk reward of 50 & 200 Day MA altcoin dominance "golden crosses".

Zooming into the chart, we have wicked upto the previous breakdown level. The vpvr does show a considerable gap in volume, therefore room to move upwards if the current resistance level can be broken. Note the Weekly would also need to close above the 50 Week to confirm a bullish bounce for Bitcoin dominance. Expect strong resistance around 67.5% point of control:




Regarding the original OP TA, the current pullback looks like another opportunity to enter to good risk reward trade, rather than getting stopped out for break even, Even if lower levels are to be expected:

For reference sake, the current pull back to the bull flag resistance & vpvr levels is partially the reason for cancelling this long trade, instead looking to target the 200 Day or Week MA:

[dragonvslinux]

On the Daily time-frame, looking at Altcoin dominance again, we are finding support from the previous bull flag resistance level as well as 50 Day MA:



If this level doesn't hold, it'd likely take dominane back down to the VPVR point of control at 32%.


Note that the 200 Week MA (sloping upwards ie bullish) is also currently at 32.62% that could also likely act as support:



The TI Sequential on the Weekly, while remaining on a bullish 7 (out of 9 count), is also on an "aggressive 13" buy signal, but not all too convinced how relevant this is to be honest.


Additionally, a very very close up view of Bitcoin dominance in comparison to BTC price based on Today's movements. Note how price lows came at dominance highs:



If Bitcoin bounces from this strong support level, which is very likely imo, Bitcoin dominance will fall lower based on Today's correlation.