Bitcoin valuation forecast for 2020-2060 from $10K to $100K: Is it reasonable?

[Wokebeast]

In my humble estimation (based on my own scientific, engineering, economics education) as I am learning more about it, Bitcoin will reach valuation around $10,000 within 0-2 years (at the time of this writing it is already back up to around $8,000 rounding to the nearest thousand) and then will reach valuation $100,000 within 20-40 years and then $1,000,000 (each single Bitcoin) within 40-120 years of this year 2020. Today there are 17,000,000 Bitcoins in existence for around $170B (billion) market capitalization. In 2140 there will be 21,000,000 Bitcoins in existence. I am conservatively guessing the market cap will be around $2T-$20T (trillion). This is my own projection. Do others in the Bitcoin community (this forum) agree that my estimation or forecast is reasonable to expect? Clearly there will be huge or not so huge price/valuation changes or swings over time. There is no arguing that, however, over long term the starting data point of $10,000 around 2020 and $100,000 at around 2040-2060 I think are two reasonably expected data points. I will be 75 years old in 2040, so that will make my retirement years very happy (should I not get hit by a bus before then).

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[Heisenberg_Hunter]

Bitcoin reaching the $10000 within a month, year or two is highly possible but if each bitcoin rises upto a mammoth $100000 that would rise the total market cap of bitcoin to over $2.1 trillion. Gold on the other hand sums upto just over $7.5 trillion and the total cryptocurrency marketcap could hit a total of over $5+ trillion approx in 20 years. This kind of a future is highly possible only when there is widespread adoption of bitcoin in almost all the places of this world.

The 2017-2018 market rise was driven with fake hype and speculation and hardly any exciting news backing up the speculative investment. Bitcoin is meant to be used as a currency rather than considering them as a safe asset or a trading mechanism and the exact market prices are determined only based on the widespread usage.

Your second scenario of $1 million per bitcoin is highly impossible in less than 75-100 years and the current total market cap of physical currency in this world is around $36 trillion. If bitcoin were to reach $1 million, the bitcoin market cap would hit $21 trillion. This is highly possible in a dystopian era where we would be finding a way to reach the Oort Cloud in less than 150-200 years.

[wheelz1200]

Trying to predict bitcoin 40 years from now is nothing more than dart throwing.  There is absolutely no scientific way to determine crypto prices 40 years from now, if anyone tells you there is they are either lying or kidding themselves.  Stick to the near term and let history handle itself.  Keep stacking sats and enjoy the ride.

[bgaf]

That is computed compounded and exponentially. There is a chance for that, same like what happened to stocks but cryptocurrency is volatile and a tech product. We never know what new tech could the mass community will be hooked 10 to 40years from now. Even reversal of that can also happened. The estimation is set for a longer period which isn't valuable for now, cause maybe the inflation is already high during that time and the price of goods and etc.

[Republikcoin.com]

trying to predict bitcoin for decades to come is not certain, even with all the information we have, we cannot speculate exactly what bitcoin price will be achieved in the coming months. although I think that bitcoin will have a high price at that time, it is still uncertain, even the percentage is very small, because we do not know what will happen, especially when bitcoin prices rise high, it will definitely create many problems for bitcoin. however, it is better to speculate on what is in front of us based on the information we get, rather than speculating for the next few decades, but it does not have a sound basis.

[Icygreen]

Like others have said, I doubt that you'd extract any meaningful metric of price 20 or 40 years from now and I'd encourage you to focus on learning about Bitcoin rather than speculating potential gains and prices.  
 
What I like about your post is that you're speaking of keeping your savings in Bitcoin! I think that is what will fuel the next round of interest and ultimately leading to wider adoption.
Saifdean A. recently said, "Savings is the most subversive thing you can do with Bitcoin"

[palle11]

What I don't like about your prediction is that is a very long time prediction and I don't know if such information can be preserved with the next generation of technology. The prices that you have listed are far and way beyond what can be debated upon because you don't have any scientific proof.

[El duderino_]

Like others have said, I doubt that you'd extract any meaningful metric of price 20 or 40 years from now and I'd encourage you to focus on learning about Bitcoin rather than speculating potential gains and prices.  
 
What I like about your post is that you're speaking of keeping your savings in Bitcoin! I think that is what will fuel the next round of interest and ultimately leading to wider adoption.
Saifdean A. recently said, "Savings is the most subversive thing you can do with Bitcoin"

With Icygreen, there are no timelines to predict... but there is corn to be saving, no more to know

[Kyraishi]

All I see is completely arbitrary numbers and nothing else.

I personally think that there is a good chance that we'll breach $10k in the very near future, perhaps even during this year. With the halving coming up it should only be a matter of time before that actually occurs. Even though short term sentiment may be a bit bearish right now considering the circumstances under which BTC failed to breach the $9k resistance, I'm still optimistic on the long term outlook.

Other than that though, I really see no basis for any of your longer term predictions. While $100k and $1M per BTC is possible, it is only attainable after a massive depreciation in fiat through hyperinflation or some event of the like.

[exstasie]

In my humble estimation (based on my own scientific, engineering, economics education) as I am learning more about it, Bitcoin will reach valuation around $10,000 within 0-2 years (at the time of this writing it is already back up to around $8,000 rounding to the nearest thousand) and then will reach valuation $100,000 within 20-40 years and then $1,000,000 (each single Bitcoin) within 40-120 years of this year 2020.

Timing is really difficult to predict, but I'd still aim for a lot sooner. Here's why:



My theory is that Bitcoin is following a typical technology adoption life cycle. We are still in the "early market" phase. We haven't yet "jumped the chasm" towards mainstream adoption yet. Once we do, exponential adoption is going to meet extreme scarcity of supply. Under those conditions, million dollar valuations could come very soon, within the next decade (if only for a brief time during a bubble).

[Juggy777]

Trying to predict bitcoin 40 years from now is nothing more than dart throwing.  There is absolutely no scientific way to determine crypto prices 40 years from now, if anyone tells you there is they are either lying or kidding themselves.  Stick to the near term and let history handle itself.  Keep stacking sats and enjoy the ride.

@wheelz1200 I’ll second that because none of us can even correctly predict where bitcoin prices will end in 2020, therefore predicting for 40 years from now doesn’t make any sense in my opinion. Another factor why it’s so difficult to predict bitcoin prices for the future is, because we do not know which events will take place and what will be their effect on bitcoin prices.

[sunsilk]

Bitcoin reached more than $10,000 last year if you didn't saw that.

Today there are 17,000,000 Bitcoins in existence

Nope, we just passed the 17M supply and the total circulation now is 18.1M bitcoins in circulation. With the valuation you have for bitcoin to reach $100,000 within 20-40 years, honestly it's very realistic but I think we should in the middle because we might see more than that during that period.

[Reatim]

take note that the existing Bitcoin is not based on how many has been mined but how much is still circulating until now.
there are tons of bitcoin that has been Gone from the forgotten wallets or miss sending amounts so that would be lessen from those 17 million mined or more than.

and also don't rely on the value of bitcoin to USD because the more Bitcoin Price goes higher is opposite will happen to USD(IMO) so this means maybe the value of Bitcoin by that time is double or maybe triple depends on the market movements.

[Febo]

Bitcoin valuation forecast for 2020-2060 from $10K to $100K: Is it reasonable?

LOL come on man. 2060? Really?   You want that someone tells you price of Bitcoin in 40 years time? No one dont know how much it will cost a week from now you want 40 years?  What we know of 2060 Bitcoin is that block reward will be really low. Daily bitcoin reward will go from 1800 Bitcoin today to 1.7578125 Bitcoin. So not even 2 Bitcoin. Do you believe that can secure the network?

[hatshepsut93]

The further you go in time, the harder it is to make a correct prediction, and the more useless this prediction would become - some people who hold Bitcoin would be dead by that time, many will be retiring or just past their active years where they won't need as much money like when they were younger. 5-10 years should be the limit for long term predictions.

[bitbunnny]

It's not reasonable to make any kind of forecast so far in the future. Having in mind how quickly Bitcoin price can change and number of outside factors that might influence the price to predict anything longer than a year isn't reasonable and I would add that is actually funny and not adecvate for someone that is seriously involved with Bitcoin.

[justdimin]

Considering the time span is actually decent this time around, I will finally say yes to 100k. Normally when people say stuff like "will bitcoin be 100k this year" I keep telling them no because these are the people who are sad that they missed out on times when bitcoin made 10x easily and they want to make that much money as well and with wishful thinking they are asking for 100k and if possible.

However, this time it is different because the time span is 40 years, it is asked if it could reach 100k until 2060 and honestly for the first time ever I could say it could be even higher. I normally never respond to these question so bullishly but 40 years is such a long time that anything could possibly happen, we could even have something much better than bitcoin by that time.

[gentlemand]

I still stick with Satoshi's prediction of volume in future either being vast or zero.

By 2040, let alone 2060, $100,000 will seem like a laughable figure.

That's either because Bitcoin has been dead for decades and is now purely a fascinating part of history, or because that price will seem like chump change compared to what it really is.

I see no middle ground.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

There is absolutely no scientific way to determine crypto prices 40 years from now

I agree, and I also agree that it's akin to throwing darts--and not even a 40-year prediction, either.  If you're even trying to proclaim what bitcoin is going to be worth in a year or longer, it's pure guesswork.  It would be nice if you could sock some bitcoin away for your retirement, confident that in forty years it'll be worth $100k but that's not realistic.  And no amount of knowledge of economics, engineering, or anything else is going to help you forecast what its value is going to be. 

Forty years is a long time, and in that time anything could happen.  It's quite possible bitcoin could be supplanted by something else, or the world could come to an end--you never know.

[pooya87]

your times are pretty weird all around. starting from $10k in 2 years! if price were $3k and you were saying this, it could have made sense but not when $10k is right around the corner and all it needs is a small 20% rise that is like the smallest price rise that bitcoin can have.
as for the very long term "forecast" in 120 years, bitcoin may not even be around anymore. bitcoin is a technology and it is new now not in a century from now. by then it is possible that at least 2 new technologies have replaced it twice.
besides you also have to take into consideration the big inflation that fiat has. so when you say $X in N years you have to consider that in N years dollar is not going to have the same purchasing power as it has today. $1 million in a century may be the cost of one cup of coffee with the way Fed is printing it.