[AMA] The Life of a Professional Gambler

[nutildah]

Reviving this thread for a minute:

I did a quick search through the topic and didn't find anything about it, so I wanted to ask you, how do you feel about e-sports gambling? Do you do much of it? What do you think e-sports gamblers look for when they are trying to find an edge?

Oh, also, what are you currently betting on these days? Most sports leagues have closed up for at least a while. I notice some eastern european leagues still going: Kazakhstan and Belarus don't seem to care about the virus at all. Same thing with Nicaragua.

E-sports on the other hand seem to be more popular now than ever! Business is booming for them.

Thanks, hope alls been good.

[tyKiwanuka]

I did a quick search through the topic and didn't find anything about it, so I wanted to ask you, how do you feel about e-sports gambling? Do you do much of it? What do you think e-sports gamblers look for when they are trying to find an edge?

E-Sports is actually a field where I never had a bet. This is a completely unknown world to me and one that also does not interest me, but where you can make good money imo, since these are relatively young markets, so lots of imperfections to be expected.

For the second question the obvious answer is of course value. I have to admit not being able to tell you, what could be angles in betting on E-Sports profitably. As with all sports, studying the game and watching as many games as possible should be helpful. Just by watching, you can extract a lot of useful information, which might help for future bets. Things like general approach to the game, strenghts, weaknesses, matchups, maybe even things like stamina etc.
With E-Sports, more than with any other sport, it is very important that you have actually done the sport yourself from my point of view. I can bet on Tennis never having touched a racket, I can bet on NFL never having worn shoulder pads etc. But betting on E-Sports never having played LoL for example, I imagine to be tremendously difficult. There is just so much more dynamics and unknown variables in these computer games. From time to time I stumble upon some E-Sports in TV and I have no idea what they are doing tbh. Someone who plays these games himself might see some patterns, that he could use for making bets. But not every expert in a sport is also good in betting that sport, so that is that, it takes both.

Oh, also, what are you currently betting on these days? Most sports leagues have closed up for at least a while. I notice some eastern european leagues still going: Kazakhstan and Belarus don't seem to care about the virus at all. Same thing with Nicaragua.

I am not betting for the moment. I had my last bet in the beginning of March, so a lot of time for my standards without one of my favourite things to do. I do regularly check out some outright markets, like I did with the US election for example (and where I opened a trade with Cuomo - not looking good atm ). I miss watching sports and having some bets, but I am not that desperate to take my chances with these few little leagues still running. I know a lot of people do (maybe out of addcition), but I am sure that I wouldn't be able to make any money there, so better just stay away. And it wouldn't surprise me, if there is also lots of fixing going on right now with more money involved and players on low wages.

I am looking forward to the NFL Draft and will dive into the betting markets the next days (already had quick looks in the last days). It's nothing where I expect to make huge money, but I assume to have a fair and good chance at least, with lots of information to be found.

Thanks, hope alls been good.

I am doing well all things considered, thanks. Hope you too

[tyKiwanuka]

A little bump, if anyone of you has any more questions


The last months of "unemployment" slowly but surely come to an end as more and more sports resume - though it's not the sports I usually bet on and/or make money with. The little addict in me showed up and so I couldn't resist to have some (more) bets in german football, where I was able to make little profits in the beginning, but the last two rounds were red, resulting in an overall loss after the break.

German Basketball will resume tomorrow with some strange tournament structure and a few teams even chose to not participate. The teams had to get their players back (mainly from the US) and a team like Vechta has only a very small roster now. There will be lots of surprises I think, but I didn't do enough research yet.

Then I am eagerly waiting for chinese Basketball to resume. It was initially to return in April already, but was always postponed further. And last but not least, I am looking forward to cycling, which will have a packed schedule in late summer/autumn:

8 August: Milano-Sanremo (Italy)
12-16 August: Critérium du Dauphiné (France)
29 August -20 September : Tour de France (France)
7-14 September: Tirreno-Adriatico (Italy)
30 September: La Flèche Wallonne (Belgium)
3-25 October: Giro d'Italia (Italy)
4 October: Liège-Bastogne-Liège (Belgium)
10 October: Amstel Gold Race (the Netherlands)
18 October: Tour des Flandres (Belgium)
20 October - 8 November: Vuelta Ciclista a España (Spain)
25 October: Paris-Roubaix (France)
31 October: Il Lombardia (Italy)
Source: https://www.uci.org/road/news/2020/the-uci-unveils-the-revised-2020-calendars-for-the-uci-worldtour-and-uci-women-s-worldtour

These are just the biggest races, there are many more smaller ones and I will have my hands full following them all All these races in a short period of time will change the dynamics dramatically. Doing the Giro&Tour double on a high level, is normally already not doable and now you have 3 GTs in three months, this will create mayhem. And the GTs will be short of a lot of very good riders, because they will choose to ride the one day Classics/Monuments instead.

[iTradeChips]

There is this one poker buddy that I know of who told me that his way of gambling is that he treats gambling as a business. He calculates his profits from a game then put some money back to his "bank" so to speak. If he lost on certain days, he will calculate again so that he will be sure that he can get his losses back once he wins on some games. And the cycle repeats until he can save enough to buy things he want or put money to their existing business. I want to ask if that is a doable strategy in living a gambling life as another source of living?

[tyKiwanuka]

Hmm, there are multiple ways to be successful and how to manage your bankroll. I don't have the golden way and I am certainly not going it; I am just going my way But step by step:

There is this one poker buddy that I know of who told me that his way of gambling is that he treats gambling as a business.

Treating gambling as a business is a good approach - you are investing in valuable odds/spots and there are a lot of people out there who do this (insurances for example and they are very good at it, because they are filthy rich ).

He calculates his profits from a game then put some money back to his "bank" so to speak. If he lost on certain days, he will calculate again so that he will be sure that he can get his losses back once he wins on some games. And the cycle repeats until he can save enough to buy things he want or put money to their existing business.

Re-calculating your bankroll as often as possible or needed is recommended to not overstake. What you do with your profits is a very individual matter and depends a lot on your circumstances. If possible, I would try to compound, because the bigger your bankroll is, the bigger you can stake and the more money you will make. But if you need to pay bills, then it's not always possible to compound; you have to withdraw some money regularly. And you should reward yourself from time to time for all the work you put in, i.e. have some nice holiday, buy a new car or whatever makes you happy.
There are also people, who pay themselves a regular income every month, no matter how they have been doing that month. If they win 10k one month, their wage will be 2k and if they only win 1k, there wage will still be 2k, but I am not a fan of that. Just take out what you need for expenses and compound the rest.

I don't like the term "he can get his losses back". You should never chase losses - just accept them as part of the game and move on without thinking what happened yesterday (same goes for when you had a very good yesterday). You shouldn't think in days in regards to your profit, but in months or even years. If you had a losing day, just re-calculate your bankroll and start fresh the next day as if it is your first day of gambling. Not easy and I fail with it as well, but thats how it should be.

I want to ask if that is a doable strategy in living a gambling life as another source of living?

I see not reason why it shouldn't I said before, that you don't have to be pitch-perfect in every sector, if you are gambling for a living, no one is. Some struggle with money management, others with discipline, then you have people with poor staking etc. Just try to give your best in every regard (and don't forget to improve every day !) and go your own way and not the way others want you to go or what is the "norm". You have to feel comfortable with what you do. And if you are more comfortable with some suboptimal staking it is better than feeling uncomfortable with optimal staking.

[STT]

The governments thing and taxing people unfairly sounds familiar and not that surprising.  I think a better system is to tax the companies themselves on profits made (indirectly this will always impact customers in some cost or less profit), not players especially not ignoring all their costs thats the worst kind of punitive unworkable tax but its happened before in history so I got little doubt its a thing.
    It might be a little extreme but would you ever consider I have to leave this country Germany or EU or wherever and move to a more hospitable regime.   People who are 'too lucky' must do this eventually I guess.    Not in gambling but I know of some who spend 50.1% of their time outside their home country to avoid being taxed 50% like you describe and though awkward its workable like that.

[tyKiwanuka]

It might be a little extreme but would you ever consider I have to leave this country Germany or EU or wherever and move to a more hospitable regime.   People who are 'too lucky' must do this eventually I guess.    Not in gambling but I know of some who spend 50.1% of their time outside their home country to avoid being taxed 50% like you describe and though awkward its workable like that.

Well, there is no income tax on gambling profits. Betting is considered a game of luck and thus it's not taxable here. The tax I have to pay, is directly at the bookmakers and it's officially 5% on your turnover. Most bookmakers have a model, where they pay the tax for you on losing bets (in fact they don't pay anything imo ). For winning bets, they take 5% of your profit and officially pay it to the State of Germany (in reality they don't pay anything again or just parts of it - they just increase their profit with it imo). Since this is an additional 5% I have to beat on top of the house edge, I don't play at these bookmakers no more.

There are also some bookmakers that have no tax at all for german customers, and they claim to pay all taxes from their money for you (again they don't pay anything imo). And then you have bookmakers that just don't care what Germany has to say, because they are sitting faaaaaaaaaaaaar away. This is all very chaotic, but I have adapted to it and where there is a will, there is a way. Mainly with agents.

So I never really considered moving to another country, at least not for betting purposes And with a lot of bookmakers it would make no difference for me anyway, since I have been kicked out or limited by most of them, so I can't bet there anymore no matter where in the world I live. I would need someone else to place bets for me on a non-taxed account and for that I can as well stay where I am.

I think a better system is to tax the companies themselves on profits made (...)

I am no tax expert, but afaik, Germany can't tax a company that sits on some offshore island, even if it is serving german customers. They already struggle with taxing companies like Amazon properly for the business they do here

[iTradeChips]

Hmm, there are multiple ways to be successful and how to manage your bankroll. I don't have the golden way and I am certainly not going it; I am just going my way But step by step:

There is this one poker buddy that I know of who told me that his way of gambling is that he treats gambling as a business.

Treating gambling as a business is a good approach - you are investing in valuable odds/spots and there are a lot of people out there who do this (insurances for example and they are very good at it, because they are filthy rich ).

He calculates his profits from a game then put some money back to his "bank" so to speak. If he lost on certain days, he will calculate again so that he will be sure that he can get his losses back once he wins on some games. And the cycle repeats until he can save enough to buy things he want or put money to their existing business.

Re-calculating your bankroll as often as possible or needed is recommended to not overstake. What you do with your profits is a very individual matter and depends a lot on your circumstances. If possible, I would try to compound, because the bigger your bankroll is, the bigger you can stake and the more money you will make. But if you need to pay bills, then it's not always possible to compound; you have to withdraw some money regularly. And you should reward yourself from time to time for all the work you put in, i.e. have some nice holiday, buy a new car or whatever makes you happy.
There are also people, who pay themselves a regular income every month, no matter how they have been doing that month. If they win 10k one month, their wage will be 2k and if they only win 1k, there wage will still be 2k, but I am not a fan of that. Just take out what you need for expenses and compound the rest.

I don't like the term "he can get his losses back". You should never chase losses - just accept them as part of the game and move on without thinking what happened yesterday (same goes for when you had a very good yesterday). You shouldn't think in days in regards to your profit, but in months or even years. If you had a losing day, just re-calculate your bankroll and start fresh the next day as if it is your first day of gambling. Not easy and I fail with it as well, but thats how it should be.

I want to ask if that is a doable strategy in living a gambling life as another source of living?

I see not reason why it shouldn't I said before, that you don't have to be pitch-perfect in every sector, if you are gambling for a living, no one is. Some struggle with money management, others with discipline, then you have people with poor staking etc. Just try to give your best in every regard (and don't forget to improve every day !) and go your own way and not the way others want you to go or what is the "norm". You have to feel comfortable with what you do. And if you are more comfortable with some suboptimal staking it is better than feeling uncomfortable with optimal staking.

I wasn't able to get his whole strategy in gambling but kidding aside he was able to buy a car and a house in the 7 years that I know him gambling weekly. It really baffles everyone in the neighborhood as he does not have a job and judging by my previous visits, he frequently visit poker sites and invests heavily in cryptocurrency. So I guess he is diversifying his gambling profits to other ventures which is good, I mean most of us know the saying "Don't put all of your eggs in one basket". After all those years he now has a small business and still gambles from time to time. But I was impressed that he was able to pull it off. I might not be able to gather the courage to do what he does but he is an inspiration to me as a crypto enthusiast.

[tyKiwanuka]

I wasn't able to get his whole strategy in gambling but kidding aside he was able to buy a car and a house in the 7 years that I know him gambling weekly.

Other people are able to buy cars and houses from the money they get for doing their jobs as well

It really baffles everyone in the neighborhood as he does not have a job and judging by my previous visits, he frequently visit poker sites and invests heavily in cryptocurrency.

Huh ? He has a job, you and your neighbours just don't see it as his job, because for you it's unthinkable to make a living out of gambling (read: investing). Parking some of your money in other investements, like cryptocurrency, is a good idea, since you don't always need all your bankroll at once. So, if you feel comfortable having your money in such a volatile investment, why not

I might not be able to gather the courage to do what he does but he is an inspiration to me as a crypto enthusiast.

It doesn't take a lot of courage. Other people take risks too, when they start some business, have a little shop or whatever and take loans for it. Gambling/investing for a living is a bit unusual yes, but it's a job like any other in the end.

[roosbit]

People say go big or go home meaning to commit everything you have so whats your take on this

to live off gambling, do you go for large lots or for the purpose of good account management you place a percentage of your a/c.

[tyKiwanuka]

People say go big or go home meaning to commit everything you have so whats your take on this

to live off gambling, do you go for large lots or for the purpose of good account management you place a percentage of your a/c.

I am trying to have a proper money management, I wrote a bit about it here and here.

I like a go big or go home approach in general, but it's not sustainable with professional gambling. If you go big in gambling, you won't have a home to go to longterm, because you will be homeless sooner or later. There is this saying, that betting is a marathon and not a sprint - I hate this saying by now, because I have heard it gazillion times, but it's very true.

No bet is ever 100% safe and you should never stake more than single digit % of your bankroll on any bet, as tempting as it might be. And something like 10% of your bankroll on a single bet should be a very rare event and only if you have very good information & insight, when the odds represent tremendous value and have a good probability to win. This will happen not very often in your (betting) lifetime The rest is just playing the long game and getting rid of the luck factor that every single bet has.

[Steamtyme]

Well now that live sports (no fans) have been back for a while, and with it live sports betting; I'm curious. How has it been? On paper I expect that most matches would have similar odds to what it would have been pre-pandemic, but I got to thinking about just how different games look. Not to mention the behind the scenes of practicing and out of game lifestyle for players.

Have you noticed or did you notice that there has been a major difference in teams and their performances, and/or that the odds on matches are a little skewed now or early on after the return. Any sports that were affected more so than others that you generally bet on?

[tyKiwanuka]

I was really struggling to answer these questions, since every sport/league is so unique with their very own dynamics etc. but tried my best

On paper I expect that most matches would have similar odds to what it would have been pre-pandemic, but I got to thinking about just how different games look. Not to mention the behind the scenes of practicing and out of game lifestyle for players.

Yes, the odds didn't change that much. The european football leagues still had home advantage priced in, but not as much as with spectators of course. Then you have leagues like MLS or Chinese Super League, which are played in neutral locations in a bubble and bookies just remove any home advantage and go on from there.

The games itself are rather boring to watch and even the players look kind of bored at times. This non-atmosphere often gives you the impression of players not trying 100%; there seems to be no urgency, even if down 0-1 in the latter stages of a game. It's missing the (home) crowd to push the teams. In general I would say that these kind of artificial circumstances favour the more skilled teams.

It's not easy for the players on a mental level since they only commute between hotel/practice facility/stadium and don't get to see their families for weeks/months or can just chill a bit at home.

Have you noticed or did you notice that there has been a major difference in teams and their performances, and/or that the odds on matches are a little skewed now or early on after the return. Any sports that were affected more so than others that you generally bet on?

No, not really. Once a sport/league resumes it's like in the beginning of a normal season, so not really Corona-related if there are some surprise results and upsets. After some weeks there are no secrets anymore, the odds get adjusted and it's as hard as ever before to find valuable spots.

I do think that Football (Soccer) and Basketball are more affected than Formula 1 or Cycling for example. In Football/Basketball there is a huge difference, if you play in a packed stadium/arena or in an empty place, where you hear every peep. The fans are more part of the game there and can even influence things a bit. A Formula 1 driver doesn't basically notice any fans/atmosphere during the race.

While Football/Basketball/F1 are on some regular schedule/rhythm, Cycling has a brutal schedule this year. They are doing inside 3 months, what they would normally do in 6+ months. Cycling is the hardest and most challenging sport imo and this super tight racing calendar will make for some super crazy results and good betting opportunities (hopefully).

[Steamtyme]

Solid answers, thanks for the insight. A few guys I work with have been glued to the Hockey games lately and listening to them got me thinking about this. They made similar comments to this.

The games itself are rather boring to watch and even the players look kind of bored at times. This non-atmosphere often gives you the impression of players not trying 100%; there seems to be no urgency, even if down 0-1 in the latter stages of a game. It's missing the (home) crowd to push the teams. In general I would say that these kind of artificial circumstances favour the more skilled teams.

I don't really follow many team sports so I really had no basis to go off. It made sense to me that without that stadium energy some might not be capable of mentally bringing their "A" game.

While Football/Basketball/F1 are on some regular schedule/rhythm, Cycling has a brutal schedule this year. They are doing inside 3 months, what they would normally do in 6+ months. Cycling is the hardest and most challenging sport imo and this super tight racing calendar will make for some super crazy results and good betting opportunities (hopefully).

This sounds insane, and likely to bring about more than a few injuries. I imagine the action will begin to get crazy somewhere around week 7, just a little past the midway point.  I don't follow anything with cycling but I imagine in a normal season, athletes attempt to participate in most if not all races in an attempt to qualify for whatever the Championship is.

Good luck finding the right spots. 

[TedMosby]

whenever I read something like "gambling for living", "betting for living", "professional gambler", my mind always thinking about a person who can constantly get profit from gambling.
did you even minus in one month? how did you manage that kind of situation?

[tyKiwanuka]

did you even minus in one month?

For sure I did. Every professional gambler will have had losing months; the exception are maybe arbers, when it comes to betting. One month is a too short period to get rid of variance all the time, thats why you should think more longterm than a month.

how did you manage that kind of situation?

The first post in this thread has some table of contents, where you can find posts about my journey.

[2double0]

A few questions I would like to add to your glossary would be:

Have you ever gambled on live casino games like Baccarrat or BlackJack? Do you know some tricks to reduce casino's odds in these games?

Have you ever made it to the slots? If yes, how was your experience with this type of gambling?

[tyKiwanuka]

Have you ever gambled on live casino games like Baccarrat or BlackJack? Do you know some tricks to reduce casino's odds in these games?

Have you ever made it to the slots? If yes, how was your experience with this type of gambling?

I think I talked about that already in the past, but probably not enough for it to make into the table of contents And maybe rightfully so, since there really isn't much to talk about. You can play these games, but you will lose money. It's fine to do it for entertainment purposes, but don't expect to get anything out of it (longterm). With some strategic play, you can reduce the house edge, but you won't win that way too, you will just lose less.

I don't like to play games, where I don't have a fair chance of winning anything and my opponent (the house in this case) always wins. I played BlackJack and some slots, but only when I got freespins or some bonus/free money for the Casino from a bookmaker where I play and they happen to have a Casino too. I have to admit, that it's maybe some fun to play these games, but the fact that I will lose, never got me really excited about these games fortunately. And imo these games are highly dangerous, because so addictive and can destroy peoples life.

We have loads of offline arcades (not sure about this term) here. In every little village you have them, and no matter at what time you drive by, there are always cars parked in front of them. Also look at how many online Casinos promoting their services in here (you wear a signature from one of them as well). They are making lots of money and there seems to be no saturation - because there are so many addicted players and the house always wins.

I can only recommend to never start playing these kind of games. It's better to play or Poker or do sportsbetting/-trading, if you are looking for a thrill, because these are skill games, where you can beat the house. And you are no gambler then anymore, but an investor - you are investing in good odds Hopefully.