I see a dump approaching, do you?

[bgaf]

This is expected mate as series of correction will be made until it find its strong support. Right now, its keep going up, and might able to reach 9600-9800 level as many buy orders are keep approaching. But this will stop, as those traders and whales their cash or gains first. So we should prepare for a dump and make an entry point again but if this continue maybe that's a early bull run for us. Hoping it still fly, cause I'm already 340% gain already planning to dump it on 9650 if target hit. Then find a new level again.

[lienfaye]

Price dump is always possible to happen especially the price of btc is increasing for the past few days. Expect those short term investors to take advantage the situation so minor recovery might really happen.

However as btc halving is approaching and just few months away, we know many of us are also accumulating because of possible bull run.

Well it might be too early to say but we cant deny the fact that the start of this year is positive for crypto because of the growth in price of btc and other alts.

[Reid]

There will always be that possibility specially when it is increasing in fast pace.

I'd be more worry about it when it jumps with thousands of dollars. But it is not.
Just a couple of hundred is not bad for a week.
Besides, it had been dumped for so much the last year. I think it is just the right time for it to come back to where it belong.
Although, there will always be that frightening idea that it might really go down anytime.
Traders will have to be ready with that.

[Oasisman]

Revisiting below $9,000 level may only have a slight chance to happen, that's what I see in this current market condition. Bitcoin is slowly gaining positive momentum and I don't see any signs of it coming down hard this time. Short pull backs were caused by quick sellers when they see a good range to sell, but as we all can see, Bitcoin can't be stopped from gradually increasing by now.

[exstasie]

Yes I do, although there will probably be some disagreement over use of the word "dump." In the bigger picture, it will probably be viewed as a "pullback" or "correction" instead.

This is my general idea:



A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep.

that's a huuugee dip. I'm happy we are matching with our forecast. But I think it will be VERY difficult to go under 8.5k. The majority of people who are buying now, will not sell, so that will make support level rise from the previews one due to less supply.

It could definitely be a sideways correction instead, like a dip to the 0.382 that flags out. A "time" correction rather than a "price" correction, you might call it.

I'll say this though. That feeling of "it can't go below x price, it's just too bullish!".....my experience is, when you get that feeling, get ready to see sub-x prices.

I'm not sure I'd call the upper $7,000s likely, but very possible. It's good to keep in mind. xxxx123abcxxxx is seeing the same thing from another perspective:

[GuyFromBarcelona]

Yes I do, although there will probably be some disagreement over use of the word "dump." In the bigger picture, it will probably be viewed as a "pullback" or "correction" instead.

This is my general idea:

https://i.imgur.com/yD47pOA.png

A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep.

that's a huuugee dip. I'm happy we are matching with our forecast. But I think it will be VERY difficult to go under 8.5k. The majority of people who are buying now, will not sell, so that will make support level rise from the previews one due to less supply.

It could definitely be a sideways correction instead, like a dip to the 0.382 that flags out. A "time" correction rather than a "price" correction, you might call it.

I'll say this though. That feeling of "it can't go below x price, it's just too bullish!".....my experience is, when you get that feeling, get ready to see sub-x prices.

I'm not sure I'd call the upper $7,000s likely, but very possible. It's good to keep in mind. xxxx123abcxxxx is seeing the same thing from another perspective:

https://i.imgur.com/xpDaKvA.png

I am waiting for the pullback to get some more money in, I would be very happy if it goes to 7k before recovering but there are a freacking ton of buying orders at 9,2k, a ton at 9k and another ton at 8,8k, is very hard for me to imaging a pullback to 8-8,2k, in fact I have the order at 9075 and thinking if I should put it higher.

But I am very new to bitcoin, more used to classical values. Wouldn't be going under 8,8k as surprising as seems to me? should I get used to randomly see that kind of pullbacks in bitcoin? the pullbacks I have seen this weeks weren't that strong.

[Sanitough]

You maybe right but you can't erase to the mind of majority that they are liking what they are seeing because they have been longing for the bull run.
Price may dump, then what? we have been seeing this for years already, so we are just hoping here that bitcoin will eventually be bullish and so it would attract investors again who are really to pour their money in crypto.

The bull run will come soon, call me bias but that's why my eyes and my mind sees for now.

[1Referee]

Well it might be too early to say but we cant deny the fact that the start of this year is positive for crypto because of the growth in price of btc and other alts.

It's quite a good start when you take into consideration that the month of january isn't usually Bitcoin's best month. I think what contributed to this is how altcoins seem to be breaking bullish, and when that happens they help lift Bitcoin up too, while usually it's Bitcoin lifting altcoins up.

It's definitely going to be interesting to see where this goes and how traders will react just before/after the halving because that does present a solid sell the news type of event. Might be worth getting into a short if I spot signs of weakness early enough, but all that will translate into is a huge opportunity to buy the dip and add to your hodl stack.

Gold is holding strong too, which might help boost people's confidence in Bitcoin since the correlation between the two assets has been quite significant in the last 6-8 months. Currently it's hovering around $1580 but I'm confident that it will reach ~$1700 before the end of the year. Whether it will hold that level remains to be seen, but that's something to think about later.

https://goldprice.org/

[Lucius]

So buying now thinking in holding for a year or two is a good and probably profitable option regardless of what happens now-short term.

This is thinking shared by many, mostly based on the logic that history will repeat itself as it did in the first 2 halvings. I personally share this opinion and I hope that is exactly what will happen, but when it comes to BTC one should always take everything with a great deal of caution. Never invest what you can not afford to lose, and do not be greedy - I think that 100% profit is something that should be taken without think too much.

I think we are now seeing profit-taking in action, this is for sure slows even faster price growth. Short-term investors always play their games, but that can't last forever. I think it will take until halving, and after that, we might see a little more serious growth.

[dragonvslinux]

Yes I do, although there will probably be some disagreement over use of the word "dump." In the bigger picture, it will probably be viewed as a "pullback" or "correction" instead.

This is my general idea:



A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep.

Nice analysis, I agree the $8800 level is a likely area to pull back to and find strong support, and we don't need to correct that far either. Especially given it's only the smaller time-frames (4hr/Daily) that are suggesting we need to "cool off" (RSI for example), whereas the Weekly will signal a bearish to bullish trend change based on a plethora of different indicators (ex: MACD, Ihimoku, Hash) by the end of the week. Simply put, macro traders and investors will be signaled to buy dips, no matter how small they are.

Seeing recent TA looking for a pull-back early next month reminds me of my time-based analysis from last month of the next swing low between February 6th and 11th 2020, that is now telling me the correction might be a lot faster than most people are anticipating. At least based on the past 6 years of data, this time period has been a good (or safe) time to buy, based on a probability of 85%. Not as good as 90% probability of $7245 being the second best buying opportunity of 2019, but hey these high probability opportunities don't come around very often.


(Note: If you click play on this TA BLX is currently reading the BTC price as $0. Don't panic: Bitcoin didn't actually go to zero)

An orderly pull back to the 200 Day MA (around $8900) at a minimum is to be expected, and finding support from this key MA would be even more bullish (than being above $9K) in my opinion. Reaching $10K this week or not becomes less relevant right now. $8.8K and $8.5K* look like very reasonable levels of support, as does $8.2K VPVR support:

Either way, prices are looking very strong  

[ololajulo]

Our fate goes with FUD and FOMO walking hand-in-hand, this is why it is always advised not to rely on your emotions in this space, follow your gut and make your decision fast. If you are sure we are in bullrun you can still buy up cause you dont know how low it could dump, FUD and FOMO will always affect your decision now. Most strategies are not revealed in the market thats why a mentors with at least 2 cycle experience can help ones decision.

[206 bones]

I am waiting for the pullback to get some more money in, I would be very happy if it goes to 7k before recovering but there are a freacking ton of buying orders at 9,2k, a ton at 9k and another ton at 8,8k, is very hard for me to imaging a pullback to 8-8,2k, in fact I have the order at 9075 and thinking if I should put it higher.

But I am very new to bitcoin, more used to classical values. Wouldn't be going under 8,8k as surprising as seems to me? should I get used to randomly see that kind of pullbacks in bitcoin? the pullbacks I have seen this weeks weren't that strong.

Wouldn't be going under 8,8k as surprising as seems to me?

It will be very difficult to get under 8,8k & very unlikely to see 8,5k ever again. The support strength is increasing as we approach the halving. Every new low will be higher than the previews.

100 days remain, but! in the 60-45 days before its likely FOMO will very difficult to break with fear. Taking all this into account I see that we have a window of 40 days to keep accumulating at corrections. After this, the portfolios must be ready & just HODL for 2020 & 2021.

should I get used to randomly see that kind of pullbacks in bitcoin?

The behaviour depends on where you are positioned within the 4 year cycle.

It's very complex to understand how it behaves. Study as much as you can. Crypto index helps. Stock-to-flow ratios. Sense the social media. I recomend to read "the bitcoin standard".

Take a look of one of my topics: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5218553.0

[Latviand]

It looks like it.... 
There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever.

Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more.

I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever.

So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$

If you want to know more about my reasoning in this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0

I'm actually not expecting any real dump again at this time , every price flunctuation now will still be around this present value and not lesser.This Moment is close to halving and we are leaving $8k for the next level. We may not have much puch till April but there will be steady increase till the halving in attained.

The majority of people believe this. I don't. We will see. There is still 100 days to halving. Not close enough.

How can you say that there's 100 days befofe halving? Can you please share a proof to this? Because I am not aware of such thing. All I know is that, it is normal for its market value to fall and rise since that is the nature of market volatility. I no longer anticipate dumps because as what happens everytime, it would be followed by a recovery although the price won't be back to its state before the downfall, but still, recovery is there, same thing with the uprise. As an investor you should know when to sell and when to hold.

[206 bones]

How can you say that there's 100 days befofe halving? Can you please share a proof to this? Because I am not aware of such thing. All I know is that, it is normal for its market value to fall and rise since that is the nature of market volatility. I no longer anticipate dumps because as what happens everytime, it would be followed by a recovery although the price won't be back to its state before the downfall, but still, recovery is there, same thing with the uprise. As an investor you should know when to sell and when to hold.

https://www.binance.vision/es/halving

[target]

Not a serious dumps, it could go up easily like the normal higher highs since the start of the year. If you just bought back you may sell again at 9800 and then buy at 9600. I don't know if my analysis is correct but I made a sell order on 9800. A few satoshis at every hop is now worth saving.

[GuyFromBarcelona]

Not a serious dumps, it could go up easily like the normal higher highs since the start of the year. If you just bought back you may sell again at 9800 and then buy at 9600. I don't know if my analysis is correct but I made a sell order on 9800. A few satoshis at every hop is now worth saving.

but you are risking not jumping back in on time just to scratch few satoshi

[crwth]

There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever.

I'm not an expert trader, but I'm curious as to why you think it's artificial? If you classify it that way, then the whole price thing on Bitcoin now is artificial and would bound to be negative?

Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more.

Isn't that FOMO would lead to a higher price? It depends on the situation, I guess. When people are scared that Bitcoin will burst, they sell. When they are hopeful, they buy.

After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever.

Stop this non-sense without any facts to show. I do hope that the price of Bitcoin increases continuously, but that's not the reality we are in.

For those who are interested in the topic he just posted, he mentioned on the linked thread that his evidence could be the stock to flow ratio. Which is increasing. I did a simple Google search and found an interesting site. Check the link here: https://digitalik.net/btc/

[STT]

Nah too predictable, bumps in the road can be part of the groundwork to both a rising trend and declines overall and thats all there is on the menu just a reset to the gains already seen.     So far 2020 has been very positive, taking some of that back is par for the course.



Just at the top I see it falling below the rapid momentum of recent rise and historically we have a level of about 9250 it should stay above to keep rising.   I think it can reset a greater amount then the sell already seen today if not confirming above 9250 as support.

[stompix]

It looks like it....  
There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air.

20k is very conservative. BTC could reach six figures this or next year.

Please help me understand one thing
How is 9k right now pure air but next year 100k at least is perfectly fine?
What will happen till then, we split the atom, revive the kingdom of Arnor, we cure cancer?

Furthermore, how is the price "pure air" at 9400 but not on 8800?
Because subnitride burns at 9000 degrees?  

It's definitely going to be interesting to see where this goes and how traders will react just before/after the halving because that does present a solid sell the news type of event. Might be worth getting into a short if I spot signs of weakness early enough, but all that will translate into is a huge opportunity to buy the dip and add to your hodl stack.

Speaking of things that usually happen, you know that the price has a tendency to stay flat when people are expecting something total radical to happen, right?
I wouldn't be surprised if it stays at this value for the first half of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to the moon, and I will just utter an "uh" if it dips again right after the halving.

Trying to predict things is nice, but when some people are trying to pinpoint the moves over a month period with an accuracy of 10$, it's really funny.

based on a plethora of different indicators (ex: MACD, Ihimoku, Hash)

How is that miner capitulation apocalypse going on?  

[target]

Not a serious dumps, it could go up easily like the normal higher highs since the start of the year. If you just bought back you may sell again at 9800 and then buy at 9600. I don't know if my analysis is correct but I made a sell order on 9800. A few satoshis at every hop is now worth saving.

but you are risking not jumping back in on time just to scratch few satoshi

It happens countless times as long as it didn't yet touch the overbought level its still a good buy. I miss jumping back on time many times, there is no loss to that but miss chances. Many will do it being just a scalper with few $ capital. The dump today might easily bounce after all the hype is being hyped and the 2020 market is greener.