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Author Topic: I see a dump approaching, do you?  (Read 813 times)
coinfinger
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January 31, 2020, 04:56:39 PM
 #41

As per my analysis, the market is still looking more bullish, I seriously hope that the bulls will be able to defend the current level aggressively and prevent the bears from crashing the price. I have seen a few experts predict that the next price Bitcoin will be moving to will be $10,360.89 only if the bulls will be able to defend it.

But if it’s the opposite, then we should be looking forward to it crashing a bit to the next support level at $7,856.76. So, that means we should be looking forward to something above the $10,000 rate before the halving, and after the halving it will possibly go for a higher price than that.
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January 31, 2020, 07:01:15 PM
 #42

If the main reason for this dump is because of the Bitcoin halving, welp that was too advanced I think since Bitcoin hasn't been gaining too much yet. Although it is quite bullish this time but that's not enough of a reason for Bitcoin to dump back to $8k. It might be possible but it won't happen right away after the halving because most of the time if there is a bull run coming, the price would start to drop drastically.

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January 31, 2020, 08:58:27 PM
 #43

based on a plethora of different indicators (ex: MACD, Ihimoku, Hash)

How is that miner capitulation apocalypse going on?  Grin

It's went incredibly well thanks for asking! Unsurprisingly given that it was based on relatively simple tried & tested mathematics  Wink Gotta love those 1s and 0s  Cheesy

$7245, December 27th 2019 (10)



Quote from: capriole_charles
Buying during Miner Capitulation yields wonderful returns.

In case you weren't aware, the miner capitulation (translation: drop in hash rate) ended (quite swiftly infact) and the Hash Ribbons indicator signaled an incredibly reliable buy signal. Sorry if you weren't aware of the data science playing out, better luck next time, maybe. Then again, if everyone in the space understood these data science models, in-depth statistical analysis, as well as source code, then there wouldn't be any money to be made  Tongue

I appreciate you and others skepticism however, if it weren't for this I wouldn't of been so convinced by the probability and the source code's mathematics, but spent the time to study it enough to now be sitting in a nice leveraged position, 28% up so far (not including high leverage), but I'll obviously wait for thousand % returns before cashing out  Tongue


I hope others were able to benefit from the signal, given the 90% probability it would be accurate, which so far unless it breaks below around $6,200 looks pretty solid, which would then be questionable whether the post buy signal correction is deeper than the max draw-down, or whether the source code needs improving due to lack of accuracy. But then again, mathematics that has been reliable for 9 years sounds a lot like a familiar asset that I own, so no need to doubt that the value of 1 or 0 will change in the near future  Wink

For now though, all good, thanks for asking! I waited nearly a year to get a nice highly leveraged position to ride out for the next cycle. If it weren't for that indicator, I wouldn't be in one.

I can hardly find a worse indicator other than the number of horses that have taken a dump on the track at Kempton.



No, it was not what math calculated, don't bring math into this.

Code: (Hash Ribbons indicator)
//@version=4
study("Hash Ribbons",overlay= false)

// NOTES

// The "Spring" is the confirmed Miner capitulation period:
// - The 1st "gray" circle is the start of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses UNDER 2 month Hash Rate)
// - Last "green" circle is the end of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses OVER 2 month Hash Rate)
// - The "greener" the spring gets (up until blue) represents Hash Rate recovery (it is increasing)
// - The "blue" circle is the first instance of positive momentum following recovery of Hash Rate (1m HR > 2m HR). This is historically a rewarding place to buy with limited downside.

// INPUTS

type = input('Ribbons',options=['Ribbons','Oscillator'],title="Plot Type")
len_s = input(30,"Hash Rate Short SMA (days).")
len_l = input(60,"Hash Rate Long SMA (days).")
signals = input(true, "Plot Signals")
plot_halvings = input(true,"Plot Halvings")
raw = input(false, "Plot Raw Hash Rate")

// HASH RATE MA

// HR on TV only has "yesterday's" value --> use "lookahead_on" when running live (on current bar), to pull forward yesterdays data
live_HR_raw = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", close,gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
live_HR_short = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_s),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)
live_HR_long = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_l),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_on)

hist_HR_raw = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", close,gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
hist_HR_short = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_s),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
hist_HR_long = security("QUANDL:BCHAIN/HRATE", "D", sma(close,len_l),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)

daily_s10 = security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", sma(close,10),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)
daily_s20 = security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", sma(close,20),gaps=barmerge.gaps_off, lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off)


// DAILY TIMEFRAME MGMT

is_newbar(res) =>
    t = time(res) // res calculated below \/
    change(t) != 0 ? true : false

// Check how many bars are in our upper (otf) timeframe
since_new_bar = barssince(is_newbar("D")) //1-360 for minutes, D = Daily, W = Weekly, M = Monthly
D_total_bars = int(na)
D_total_bars := since_new_bar == 0 ? since_new_bar[1] : D_total_bars[1] // calculates the total number of current time frame bars in the OTF

// INDICATORS

HR_short = float(na)
HR_long = float(na)
HR_raw = float(na)
s10 = float(na)
s20 = float(na)

HR_short := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_short : hist_HR_short
HR_long := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_long : hist_HR_long
HR_raw := barstate.isrealtime ? live_HR_raw : hist_HR_raw

s10 := barstate.isrealtime ? (since_new_bar == D_total_bars ? daily_s10 : s10[1]) : daily_s10
s20 := barstate.isrealtime ? (since_new_bar == D_total_bars ? daily_s20 : s20[1]) : daily_s20

capitulation = crossunder(HR_short,HR_long)
miner_capitulation = HR_short<HR_long
recovering = HR_short > HR_short[1] and HR_short > HR_short[2] and HR_short > HR_short[3] and miner_capitulation
recovered = crossover(HR_short,HR_long)

// HASH BOTTOM + PA SIGNAL

buy = false
buy := s10>s20
     and (
     (barssince(recovered) < barssince(crossunder(s10,s20)) and barssince(recovered) < barssince(capitulation))
     or crossover(HR_short,HR_long)
     )
    
buy_plot = buy and (buy[1] == false)

// OSCILLATOR

delta = HR_short-HR_long
diff = (delta/HR_short)*100

// PLOT - DEFAULT

plot(raw ? HR_raw : na, color = color.green, linewidth = 1, style = plot.style_line, title='HR Raw')
p1=plot(type=='Ribbons'? HR_long : na, color = color.gray, linewidth = 2, style = plot.style_line,title='HR SMA Long')
p2=plot(type=='Ribbons'? HR_short : na, color = (HR_short<HR_long? color.red : color.lime), linewidth = 2, style = plot.style_line,title = 'HR SMA Short')
fill(p1,p2,color=(HR_short<HR_long?color.red:na),transp=30)

// PLOT - OSCILLATOR

plot(type=='Oscillator' ? diff : na,style=plot.style_columns,color=(diff<0?color.red:color.blue),title='Oscillator')

// PLOT - SIGNALS

plotshape(signals ? capitulation :na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.gray,size=size.normal,transp=50,text='Capitulation',textcolor=color.black,title='Capitulation')
plotshape(signals ? miner_capitulation : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.green,size=size.normal,transp=90,title='Miner Capitulation')
plotshape(signals ? recovering : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.green,size=size.normal,transp=50,title='Recovering')
plotshape(signals ? recovered : na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.lime,size=size.normal,transp=0,textcolor=color.white,title='Recovered')
plotshape(signals ? buy_plot: na,style=shape.circle,location=location.top,color=color.blue,size=size.normal,transp=0,text="Buy",textcolor=color.blue,title='Buy')

// HALVINGS

halving_1 = timestamp(2012,11,28,0,0)
halving_2 = timestamp(2016,7,9,0,0)
halving_3 = timestamp(2020,4,30,0,0) // projected! https://www.bitcoinclock.com/
h1_range = time >= halving_1 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_1 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
h2_range = time >= halving_2 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_2 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
h3_range = time >= halving_3 - 3*(24*60*60*1000) and time <= halving_3 + 3*(24*60*60*1000) //adds 3 day either side for chart visibility
bgcolor(h1_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)
bgcolor(h2_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)
bgcolor(h3_range and plot_halvings? color.red : na, transp = 20)

//ALERTS

alertcondition(capitulation, title='Alert - Capitulation')
alertcondition(recovered, title='Alert - Recovered')
alertcondition(buy and not(buy[1]), title='Alert - Buy')

Reference: https://www.tradingview.com/script/kT7jIvqv-Hash-Ribbons/


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stompix
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January 31, 2020, 09:32:57 PM
 #44

In case you weren't aware, the miner capitulation (translation: drop in hash rate) ended (quite swiftly infact) and the Hash Ribbons indicator signaled an incredibly reliable buy signal. Sorry if you weren't aware of the data science playing out, better luck next time, maybe. Then again, if everyone in the space understood these data science models, in-depth statistical analysis, as well as source code, then there wouldn't be any money to be made  Tongue

I'm still trying to figure out what type of English you're speaking when you using terms like "capitulation" for a 0.7% drop in hash rate.
You were claiming mining capitulation at 12.7 T and we're at 15.6 T
Oh, and stop trying to use long phrases to hide the fact you have nothing to say, if you try to copy nullius, you're starting with the wrong part, first find something to say and elaborate, don't elaborate because you have zero.

And second, ..your prediction for the hash rate drop you claim to have predicted now...well..it happened after the only serious drop in the last year.
Let's not even mention your other gem where you used your "math" to demonstrate that we won't be hitting 9k before the halving and we're going to stay at 7k.
Or your gem from a month before when we would experience an "accumulation period" at around 4k before the halving, right?
Or lets' go a month before when you were totally bullish and you claimed resistance at 8k?








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dragonvslinux
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January 31, 2020, 09:57:52 PM
Last edit: January 31, 2020, 10:08:46 PM by dragonvslinux
 #45

In case you weren't aware, the miner capitulation (translation: drop in hash rate) ended (quite swiftly infact) and the Hash Ribbons indicator signaled an incredibly reliable buy signal. Sorry if you weren't aware of the data science playing out, better luck next time, maybe. Then again, if everyone in the space understood these data science models, in-depth statistical analysis, as well as source code, then there wouldn't be any money to be made  Tongue

Ouch, you seem very bitter  Roll Eyes Did you not get your buys filled at lower levels or something? Better luck next time  Tongue

As a reminder; I didn't invent the indicator (that was Charles Edwards as referenced). I didn't write the source code using the term "capitulation" (that was Charles Edwards as referenced), and I don't care about your semantics regarding terminology either. This indicator is about mathematics (from Charles Edwards), not masturbating your linguistic skills. I take it as a compliment that you accuse me of making these predictions, rather than crediting the writer of the well-published source code, but ultimately it's factually wrong and you should probably stop doing it.

And second, ..your prediction for the hash rate drop you claim to have predicted now...well..it happened after the only serious drop in the last year.

Didn't predict anything, wasn't claiming to either. I published what the indicator had caluclated (mainly because no-one else was). Your welcome!

Let's not even mention your other gem where you used your "math" to demonstrate that we won't be hitting 9k before the halving and we're going to stay at 7k.

I never said Bitcoin wouldn't hit $9K, or stay at $7K, that's ridiculous. You won't ever hear we say Bitcoin WON'T go to anywhere between $0 and infinity. Quote me next time please or it's bullshit. For the record I still see that Bitcoin could be around $7K for the halving, as well as $10K. It's called having a diversity of opinions or being open-minded (it's healthy, you just try it sometime).

Or your gem from a month before when we would experience an "accumulation period" at around 4k before the halving, right?

I don't remember claiming accumulation around $4K, do you have a reference? If you're referring to my 10 Part series, with (obviously) 10 different outcomes, then this was my summarized prediction:

That's a range between $2,500 and $6,875, with anywhere between 2-18 months of consolidation. ✔️

The tick implies it was correct, I was right. Boo hoo for you and your bruised ego.

Or lets' go a month before when you were totally bullish and you claimed resistance at 8k?

I don't even understand what you're saying here, there was resistance around $8K  Roll Eyes

Personally, I don't care if it's because you didn't btfd or "personal problems", etc, etc, you just seem very bitter, and I don't care for your reasons. Just at least put a quote of reference to your claims next time, otherwise it just sounds like untrustworthy slander.

Finally, I don't claim to be right all the time either, there are enough times that I have been wrong, why don't you just reference these? Your being lazy. I'm happy being right a minimum of 51% of time for 2:1 reward:risk trades, nothing else is needed thanks (fyi that's the minimum required probability to being a successful trader or investor).

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stompix
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January 31, 2020, 10:20:42 PM
 #46

otherwise it just sounds like untrustworthy slander.

Sue me just like I will sue you from calling me bitter when I'm full oh chocolate after my cousin's party:P
Stop trying to wage a war when there is none, I'm just making fun of how you think that by making a hundred assumptions a month you will finally hit one and your work won't be in vain!

Didn't predict anything, wasn't claiming to either.

Common, stop the bs.
Just because you're editing your titles doesn't make things go away

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.msg53202274#msg53202274
Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years @ $7245

Remember what the original title was?
Quote
Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?

When you use the term "Is Here" with capital letters you are claiming something!
And when you're changing your topic titles because .... you're bitter your prediction was wrong....well, I like you a bit so I'm not going to use that word!

For the record I still see that Bitcoin could be around $7K for the halving, as well as $10K. It's called having a diversity of opinions or being open-minded (it's healthy, you just try it sometime).

Nope, it's not healthy at all, it's called avoiding reality by making a hundred predictions so that you can nail one and say you're right.
Try some chocolate, not healthy either but at least it's a bulletproof solution to make you feel better.

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January 31, 2020, 10:37:31 PM
 #47

I have the same feeling that the Bitcoin price will be dumped before the next jump as it did not hit the target 9600 USD! But if it continues to hold the 9K zone strongly, then I feel the price will not go to 8K USD again before the halving! Today I read 2 articles that Bitcoin price was growing because of coronavirus effect! So, there is a possibility to see Bitcoin at 10K USD within February!

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exstasie
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January 31, 2020, 10:44:26 PM
Merited by dragonvslinux (1)
 #48

An orderly pull back to the 200 Day MA (around $8900) at a minimum is to be expected, and finding support from this key MA would be even more bullish (than being above $9K) in my opinion.

That's my ideal bullish scenario, the "time correction" I was talking about. Confirming the 200-day MA as support would be a conventional and straightforward bullish confirmation that would be difficult to ignore.

Either way, prices are looking very strong  Cool

Agreed. I just think we need to mentally prepare for the possibility of a deep (50%+ retracement) pullback. In Wave 2 pullbacks, the psychology is often "bull trap over, new lows coming!" Then we get a higher low followed by bullish continuation.....

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January 31, 2020, 10:44:56 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #49

otherwise it just sounds like untrustworthy slander.

Sue me just like I will sue you from calling me bitter when I'm full oh chocolate after my cousin's party:P

No-one is sueing anyone, slander isn't anything to do with the law. Even if it's interesting that you instinctively assume I mean something law related:

"make false and damaging statements about (someone)."

Stop trying to wage a war when there is none, I'm just making fun of how you think that by making a hundred assumptions a month you will finally hit one and your work won't be in vain!

Come off it, you've been trolling me for months now. I'm OK with it, if my TA "gets to people" I know must be doing something right.

Didn't predict anything, wasn't claiming to either.

Common, stop the bs.
Just because you're editing your titles doesn't make things go away

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5205261.msg53202274#msg53202274
Hash Ribbons Indicator confirms 10th buy signal in 9 years @ $7245

Remember what the original title was?
Quote
Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?

Yeh of course I remember the original title, it's still referenced in the post for transparency sake (click on the chart referenced in original OP). I didn't want it to "go away", you're insinuating that I tried to hide it, which is far from the truth. I have no interest in hiding my predictions that were inaccurate, especially if they resulted in no losses and was a good short entry none the less, even if not on the time-frame I was looking for (macro/Weekly). I think you should try harder pointing to my incorrect TA than a break-even stop loss being triggered though, just a suggestion. There's worse than that, you're being lazy again.

PS - I still think the price could of gone to $3,800 with further capitulation and it could still happen in the near future Shocked

When you use the term "Is Here" with capital letters you are claiming something!
And when you're changing your topic titles because .... you're bitter your prediction was wrong....well, I like you a bit so I'm not going to use that word!

Again, I was referencing the indicator, from Charles Edwards. You really need to PM Charles on twitter if these semantics are getting you down.
I changed the title because I wasn't going to create a second topic within such a short period of time based on Hash Ribbons, I wanted it to be in the same place, so that others could also see my previous incorrect prediction of a deeper capitulation that what did occur.

For the record I still see that Bitcoin could be around $7K for the halving, as well as $10K. It's called having a diversity of opinions or being open-minded (it's healthy, you just try it sometime).

Nope, it's not healthy at all, it's called avoiding reality by making a hundred predictions so that you can nail one and say you're right.

I like to see all the possible outcomes, what can I say. It gives me a better understanding of the paths the market can take (which is often infinite). You say that I'm right 1 out of 100 times, I'm not going to bother arguing with you, my trading account tells me otherwise, people find value in my TA that is more accurate than not, that's all that matters to me.

Try some chocolate, not healthy either but at least it's a bulletproof solution to make you feel better.

Mate I love chocolate, I'm literally an addict. I usually eat it while doing my art & design style TA  Cheesy

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January 31, 2020, 10:54:25 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #50

An orderly pull back to the 200 Day MA (around $8900) at a minimum is to be expected, and finding support from this key MA would be even more bullish (than being above $9K) in my opinion.

That's my ideal bullish scenario, the "time correction" I was talking about. Confirming the 200-day MA as support would be a conventional and straightforward bullish confirmation that would be difficult to ignore.

Indeed  Cool

Either way, prices are looking very strong  Cool

Agreed. I just think we need to mentally prepare for the possibility of a deep (50%+ retracement) pullback. In Wave 2 pullbacks, the psychology is often "bull trap over, new lows coming!" Then we get a higher low followed by bullish continuation.....

What? Since when did you consider 50%+ retracements in bull markets? That worries me  Undecided Maybe since forever actually thinking about it, considering you didn't consider the "mini-bear" as being a bear market, which is logical on reflection and with some hindsight. I thought we were long done with that though. I'm more of the opinion that spending too long below the 200 Week MA would more likely lead to sub $3K, than support from the $4K level. We'd find support from $4K no doubt, but I find it hard to believe we'd break $5-5.5K after that, instead turning the 200 Week MA into resistance and going considerably lower as a consequence.

All theoretical obviously, but I'm more of the opinion that a 50% retracement (full miner capitulation) would be relatively fatal at current prices. Falling to the 200 Week MA maybe, possibly, but not below anymore. I ruled that out sometime ago when these fractals starting to drift away from this possibility. But obviously this is just my interpretation.

Unless it's a wick, wicks are fine and bullish. They are encouraged  Cheesy

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January 31, 2020, 11:31:17 PM
 #51

I don't if there is a reason why we have to face a huge dump again. Actually, we are started to so move high slowly though volatility is still there, dump and pumps are inevitable but can't see any reason for its strong dumps rather than halving that raise the price high. Even people would say that dumps will come in the coming days, well I'm not worried and I am preferred for anything that will happen in the next days. And I am not thinking off for the market but its all been positive as it looks nowadays.
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January 31, 2020, 11:32:20 PM
 #52

Come off it, you've been trolling me for months now. I'm OK with it, if my TA "gets to people" I know must be doing something right.

Common, don't be like that, I don't remember discussing things with you in more than two topics I doubt I'm anywhere near what others do to you Tongue.
And frankly, we wouldn't have had any conversation it it wasn't for the mining part in your topic, with the price you can do your fancy graphs, average 60 days 120 days lines and curves and balloons I don't care, that's what speculation is for.
With mining, you touched a nerve, mining is about how much your bill is and how much hash you get for that, miners must follow the price, the price didn't give a damn about my bills Tongue

I have no interest in hiding my predictions that were inaccurate,

But you just said you...
Didn't predict anything, wasn't claiming to either.

Ok, I'll stop here because it might start to look like I'm really trying to pick on you.
Just stay out of hashing correlations and we can be friends!

Leaving our quarrel aside, I still wanna hear from the OP why is 9.5k full of air right now but 100k at least easy doable in 12 months.



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February 01, 2020, 12:04:09 AM
Last edit: February 03, 2020, 10:32:12 AM by dragonvslinux
 #53

With mining, you touched a nerve, mining is about how much your bill is and how much hash you get for that, miners must follow the price, the price didn't give a damn about my bills Tongue

Thanks for explaining at least, it does make a lot more sense. Is everyone this nervous in the mining industry about the price crashing? It would at least explain the routine capitulations from a fundamental standpoint, but probably this a discussion for a different topic. I'm actually very curious though on the fundamentals behind these capitulations.

I have no interest in hiding my predictions that were inaccurate, [quote extended] especially if they resulted in no losses and was a good short entry none the less, even if not on the time-frame I was looking for (macro/Weekly).

But you just said you...
Didn't predict anything, wasn't claiming to either.

Ok, I'll stop here because it might start to look like I'm really trying to pick on you.

Don't worry it doesn't, it makes you look like either dumb, lazy, simply can't read, and/or continuing to try and slander my analysis (which you're welcome to try and do by the way).
To clarify: I didn't "predict" $3,800, I questioned it with a healthy heavy dose of skepticism. My only prediction was that it was unlikely.

I'm posting this not necessarily because I believe it will happen, but for educational purposes

The extrapolated price comes from the "2018 miner capitulation" that caused the price to drop 50%. Will we go back to $3,800? Unlikely, but clearly this is possible if the capitulation is as aggressive as 2018.



Just stay out of hashing correlations and we can be friends!

No can do I'm afraid, feel free to pick on me the next time I reference the next miner capitulation, sometime later this year I imagine post-havling.
1. I don't do what people tell me to do (as I don't need to).
2. I will always provide technical analysis for education purposes.
3. I'm not looking for friends, only information, analysis and data, sorry.

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February 01, 2020, 03:46:05 AM
Last edit: February 01, 2020, 04:34:41 AM by STT
 #54

I would be surprised at a harsh pullback right now, I reckon 8000 is about the fair or normal kind of pullback that might occur (thats not harsh imo) and people would be thrown off by that and selling into what probably becomes support at that point.   I dont rule out any lower because I've still not defined this move as a proper regular channel or rising trend, I think its just broken some of the (regular) selling and we'll see if that develops.



   Right now I dont think its negative at all, an old chart has these recent lows as possible support.    My general rule is if we stay above a rough weekly average then its got alot of momentum and generally its going to be a pain to short or express any negative trade until that 'bounce' in its step is removed.

3800 would be a back breaker, off the scale of possible for most which is where particpants or speculators at least are shed.   Depends also over what time period but most people are leaning into 2020 like its a special year, hence that'd be painful I imagine.

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February 01, 2020, 04:02:39 AM
 #55

It all depends on how the price reacts to reaching resistance. We have reached the peak we could reach without going to skyrocketing, this price is literally the last seconds of price not jumping insanely high if it is going to stay here. So long story short, either we are going to be $10k+ easily in the following days or we will go down under $9k and maybe even closer to $8k itself, we don't know which one will happen.

If anyone knew which one would happen, they would just react accordingly and either sell or buy bitcoin to position themselves, unfortunately we are not that type of people and all we can do is "assume" what it will do, which is far from actually knowing what it will do but only making up guesses about it. I personally still think it will go up, however I wouldn't be shocked if it went down neither.

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February 01, 2020, 05:27:03 AM
 #56

I am currently short BTC and got a stop loss at $9800 and if this stop actually hits, I would say we are headed straight for the $13.8K and $20K recent all time highs.

Why? its because it would be a weekly close with a higher high from that Xi pump we got a few months back. However with the huge open interest and huge funding rate and how everybody is "crazy bullish" at the moment, I can see a huge cascade of long liquidations bring us under $9K very quickly within a few minutes. However so far most of the dumps are getting bought it.

However when OI is this large, usually it means a swift move one direction or another.

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February 01, 2020, 09:33:43 AM
 #57

Please help me understand one thing
How is 9k right now pure air but next year 100k at least is perfectly fine?
What will happen till then, we split the atom, revive the kingdom of Arnor, we cure cancer?

Apparently, the Illuminati is behind why we haven't split the atom (wait, haven't we?), revived Arnor or Camelot, or cured cancer (the tears of Chuck Norris I believe is the cure and you know, he never cries).

But yeah. I think the more I read some of the posters here the more I wonder if they're really just clacking on their keyboards pulling stuff out of their ass.

Back on point though, I honestly thought I'd wake up today and see prices dip below 9k again. So far so strong!

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February 01, 2020, 10:04:42 AM
 #58

I honestly don't see a sizable dump coming any time soon.

There's very little FOMO in the market right now anyway. The previous dump down from 9.1k to 8.2k was already extremely sizable and wiped out a lot of the weak hands that were within the market.

The overall uptrend is clear - we are going for the $10k resistance now, and once that is breached, expect a ton of FOMO and rallies.

Only after that occurs do I expect big corrections. Certainly not right now, when the $7k price floor is already well established, and there is very little downward pressure on price.

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February 01, 2020, 10:14:55 AM
 #59

It looks like it....  Shocked
There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever.

Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more.

I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever.

So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$

If you want to know more about my reasoning on this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0

Note: It's difficult to predict when is going to happen, but it's highly probable it will.
Small dump can be seen on the market but it would not affect the current bullish trend.
We are about to enter the bull markets and before we could enter the bull markets, a bearish sign is always necessary.
So this is the bearish sign.

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February 01, 2020, 10:30:24 AM
 #60

We must stay above the $9200 price to remain bullish since it is the support right now for the short term.

TBH, I'm also expecting for a dump in the next few days but it will not just be a simple dump. It will be a healthy correction and since the halving is approaching, investors think that it will rise in the next few weeks and they will be FOMO'ed causing the price to rise.

Whatever happens to Bitcoin in the next few months, I'm still ready for it. It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will holdGrin Grin

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..BUY/ SELL CRYPTO..
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