I see a dump approaching, do you?

[Smitty Werben Man Jensen]

Even though dump happened, Bitcoin is still on the bull trend, don't worry, according to EMA 100 Bitcoin support is at $ 9200, I hope it won't be achieved, but if Bitcoin drops below $ 9200, be careful because according to EMA 100 on TF 1 day the price of support is there at $ 8200, use stop lose

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[sunsilk]

Your TA is good and I like it when you have said it's just under $9k and we'll never see $8k again.

It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold. 

Why not buy if it goes down? But well yeah, this is the decision that we'll ever do whether it goes high or down a bit. I guess everyone has already foreseeing the higher price that they are about to sell. So, this possible revisit to $8k is going to be nothing for longs.

[dragonvslinux]

I am currently short BTC and got a stop loss at $9800 and if this stop actually hits, I would say we are headed straight for the $13.8K and $20K recent all time highs.

Why? its because it would be a weekly close with a higher high from that Xi pump we got a few months back. However with the huge open interest and huge funding rate and how everybody is "crazy bullish" at the moment, I can see a huge cascade of long liquidations bring us under $9K very quickly within a few minutes. However so far most of the dumps are getting bought it.

However when OI is this large, usually it means a swift move one direction or another.

Good analysis, nice position, you're a lot braver than me  

I agree that breaking below $9K would likely lead to quite a few liquidations from some not-so-smart traders who have overlooked the likelihood of finding support (even if temporary) around $8.9K where the 200 Day MA is. Persaonlly, my shorts will trigger on a break of $9.2K (as more of a swing trade), but I'd be keeping a very tight stop loss on the basis of likely bouncing back to re-test this old support as new resistance. I'm aware of how risky this trade is, hence it'd only be a hedge against how long I am right now.

Also think your right about if we break above $9800 we would likely go a lot higher, it's hard to tell how far imo, but quite far probably - at least $11.5K-$12K before a decent sized pull-back. Personally I'd be longing above $9600, rather than $9800, but opening a long isn't quite the same as backing out of a short I guess.

We must stay above the $9200 price to remain bullish since it is the support right now for the short term.

TBH, I'm also expecting for a dump in the next few days but it will not just be a simple dump. It will be a healthy correction and since the halving is approaching, investors think that it will rise in the next few weeks and they will be FOMO'ed causing the price to rise.

Whatever happens to Bitcoin in the next few months, I'm still ready for it. It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold.  

Likewise regarding $9.2K, this is the level I'm watching, while expecting some sort of pull-back soon enough, whether it comes from current prices or higher levels.
I also think any dip will likely get bought up quite quickly, but this is a not-yet-proven theory imo.

Your TA is good and I like it when you have said it's just under $9k and we'll never see $8k again.

It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold.  

Why not buy if it goes down?

Apart from DCA, I don't think I'd be in a hurry to be entering anymore long positions above $7K, not that I would be selling either. I'll leave that opportunity to newer investors wanting to enter the market who have been a lot more patient than me (or older who forgot to buy the dip for that matter). Because ultimately if these new/old investors don't step up to buy $8K levels, because they also bought enough of $6-7K, then who will buy? Like many, I don't have a problem falling back down to $6-7K to accumulate more.

After all, although I think the 200 Day MA has a good chance of holding, as does the $8K level, if we do get rejected by a lower high ($9.5K, after $10.5K, $12K, $14K), then it would suggest a lower low (by simple macro analysis), because it was still indicate bearish market pressure. Obviously there's enough to show the bullish sentiment, but sometimes the bearish picture can fud any bullish sentiment. Remember $10.5K lower high? To me, this showed that enough investors had bought the $7-8K range amd demand had been satisfied, hence falling lower afterwards. The fact that we broke the bear channel is undoubtedly bullish, but without the higher high, we could still make new lows - or equal lows to $6K levels just as likely.

[TheGreatPython]

We must stay above the $9200 price to remain bullish since it is the support right now for the short term.

TBH, I'm also expecting for a dump in the next few days but it will not just be a simple dump. It will be a healthy correction and since the halving is approaching, investors think that it will rise in the next few weeks and they will be FOMO'ed causing the price to rise.

Whatever happens to Bitcoin in the next few months, I'm still ready for it. It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold. 

But this statement might not be same for me. I would short if the price goes down and would long if the price goes up so basically there are profits waiting for me on both the directions so honestly speaking, I might not actually care even if there is a dump in the markets. The price have already been above $9500 for some while which was once a resistance level and crossing that resistance makes it more possible for bitcoins to reach another resistance which is $9800.

Yes, a small dump might show up before the journey to $9800 and it might be the point where most of the whales can accumulate for short or midterm profits.

[redsun114]

It looks like it....  
There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air. When this happens is easy for the price to come down, because it doesn't have any support whatsoever.

Whales & good traders will continue to take advantage of FOMO so they can accumulate more.

I think we will revisit 8k, but just under 9k. After this dip, it looks like we are going to be saying bye bye to 8k for ever.

So, prepare those usd guys for this next dip $$

If you want to know more about my reasoning on this matter visit this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221788.0

Note: It's difficult to predict when is going to happen, but it's highly probable it will.

Charts are showing moving up and down to a greater extend which is making it more difficult to predict the supports and resistances. The price might touch down to $8000 but it might also bring a bearish trend in the markets.

The price might continue dropping until $8500 which might make a lot of traders panic sell their coins hoping there would be some more dump so that they can accumulate accordingly but this might reverse from that point and we might experience a continuous pump which might end up above $10,000 which for sure would be the start to the bullish trend. Dump might be expected before the price could pump as far as my knowledge and experience prompts me.

[exstasie]

Agreed. I just think we need to mentally prepare for the possibility of a deep (50%+ retracement) pullback. In Wave 2 pullbacks, the psychology is often "bull trap over, new lows coming!" Then we get a higher low followed by bullish continuation.....

What? Since when did you consider 50%+ retracements in bull markets? That worries me  Maybe since forever actually thinking about it, considering you didn't consider the "mini-bear" as being a bear market, which is logical on reflection and with some hindsight. I thought we were long done with that though. I'm more of the opinion that spending too long below the 200 Week MA would more likely lead to sub $3K, than support from the $4K level.

Oh I didn't mean to imply going anywhere near the 200-week MA, let alone below. I didn't mean a 50% drop in price, just a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous wave. Like this:

[btc_angela]

Even though dump happened, Bitcoin is still on the bull trend, don't worry, according to EMA 100 Bitcoin support is at $ 9200, I hope it won't be achieved, but if Bitcoin drops below $ 9200, be careful because according to EMA 100 on TF 1 day the price of support is there at $ 8200, use stop lose

Price is still holding up @$9200-$9400, so there's no dump as of the moment.

But if the price goes down to $8k levels again, (which I have been waiting) then I will definitely jump in to reenter my position again. The hardest decision is that what if the price didn't go that level, I don't want to buy at the 5 digit zone. So it's going to be a dilemma on my part, lol.

[Reid]

Even though dump happened, Bitcoin is still on the bull trend, don't worry, according to EMA 100 Bitcoin support is at $ 9200, I hope it won't be achieved, but if Bitcoin drops below $ 9200, be careful because according to EMA 100 on TF 1 day the price of support is there at $ 8200, use stop lose

Price is still holding up @$9200-$9400, so there's no dump as of the moment.

But if the price goes down to $8k levels again, (which I have been waiting) then I will definitely jump in to reenter my position again. The hardest decision is that what if the price didn't go that level, I don't want to buy at the 5 digit zone. So it's going to be a dilemma on my part, lol.

I won't either.
I think I am done with buying for now.
Just monitoring the price to where it might go.

Difficult to find the bottom now. The FOMO seems to never stop as of now which is a good thing.
Maybe they should also stay afterwards. It is not just profits as always. Plus, there is the halving which is getting near.
This month of February might really be a big deal if most of the buyers thinks the same like us.
Slow movement up but it is real. So there will be no correction that will happen.

[STT]

Weekend prices dont matter :p    I'm probably wrong to say that but thats how I feel lol   but in any case the prices on the strongest volume are what count like bricks in a wall, the rest is just some mortar to hold it together but its very much about finding the most significant prices and do these really occur on sleepy saturday and sunday.    Obviously the world is large and turning, the end of sunday is actually monday really and ditto saturday is trimmed or in my view that is the picture.

going anywhere near the 200-week MA

Yea that'd be epic, always possible but what pushes the needle this far is a big if.    200 day I first read that as and of course I think we will re test this and need confirmation before a greater rise.    Every bull run needs a clear path and bears will be gored or possibly win, we shall see.

9050 is first call when/if 9200 goes and I might try small short but as usual I probably would have been smart to enter nearer to 10k as it will waver before it moves properly

[pooya87]

We must stay above the $9200 price to remain bullish since it is the support right now for the short term.

TBH, I'm also expecting for a dump in the next few days but it will not just be a simple dump. It will be a healthy correction and since the halving is approaching, investors think that it will rise in the next few weeks and they will be FOMO'ed causing the price to rise.

Whatever happens to Bitcoin in the next few months, I'm still ready for it. It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold. 

But this statement might not be same for me. I would short if the price goes down and would long if the price goes up so basically there are profits waiting for me on both the directions so honestly speaking, I might not actually care even if there is a dump in the markets. The price have already been above $9500 for some while which was once a resistance level and crossing that resistance makes it more possible for bitcoins to reach another resistance which is $9800.

Yes, a small dump might show up before the journey to $9800 and it might be the point where most of the whales can accumulate for short or midterm profits.

you can't do both because you have to make your move before the market move happens. for example you can't wait until a drop happens then start shorting bitcoin, by that time it would be way too late since the drop is already over and everyone else has shorted and you will start shorting while price is recovering and going back up. same thing for when price goes up.

[Japinat]

Today bitcoin is -2% but the good news is it stayed at $9,000.
I am assuming that this is just a small correction prior to another pump, if there's a possible dump that would happen in the next few days, I am not expecting a serious dump, let's just follow the short trend this year, and so far, there's no heavy dump, instead a good start that until now makes the market still bullish.

[ballerin and giroud]

Even though dump happened, Bitcoin is still on the bull trend, don't worry, according to EMA 100 Bitcoin support is at $ 9200, I hope it won't be achieved, but if Bitcoin drops below $ 9200, be careful because according to EMA 100 on TF 1 day the price of support is there at $ 8200, use stop lose

The technical analyst is not a benchmark it will be wrong sometimes. But seeing this sentiment right now bitcoin will be up again, don't you remember bitcoin will meet halving and it could be make as a reason for bitcoin up again. And if we will see the prire movement day by day bitcoin always in a good trend, up drastically and didn't fall drastically it may need several dump before its price comeback to up. This movement price will be like the movement price 2017 ago, you may know about it and the investor just have a though that bitcoin will up and up more than that. 

[justdimin]

If the price actually dumps it is important to know that what will be the reaction of people. Unfortunately we are such a big massive and totally different group of people in the bitcoin world that we have no idea what will actually happen.

I personally hope that we will move towards recovering after the fall (even if the fall ever happens) instead of trying to stay at that low level.

Remember just recently we actually went from $7.5k levels to under $7k for a while and was around $6.9k levels and everyone was afraid that it will go even further down, some even said we are going towards $3.5k once again like we used to did, however we recovered very well with above $9k levels, now if we ever have another fall, I want that exact thing, at least I hope something like that to happen.

[ethereumhunter]

This weekend, I don't watch the market, and I think I will be back to the market tomorrow because usually, the market will make good movements in the next day. And I see that yesterday, bitcoin price is on a green candle, so I check with fast at the market today, and I am back to see the green candle again in the market, so I hope tomorrow, the green candle still appears at the market. But I know that it's not guaranteed to expect the same situation now because bitcoin price still moving up and down.

[sunsilk]

Your TA is good and I like it when you have said it's just under $9k and we'll never see $8k again.

It goes down, I will hold. It goes up, I will hold.  

Why not buy if it goes down?

Apart from DCA, I don't think I'd be in a hurry to be entering anymore long positions above $7K, not that I would be selling either. I'll leave that opportunity to newer investors wanting to enter the market who have been a lot more patient than me (or older who forgot to buy the dip for that matter). Because ultimately if these new/old investors don't step up to buy $8K levels, because they also bought enough of $6-7K, then who will buy? Like many, I don't have a problem falling back down to $6-7K to accumulate more.

After all, although I think the 200 Day MA has a good chance of holding, as does the $8K level, if we do get rejected by a lower high ($9.5K, after $10.5K, $12K, $14K), then it would suggest a lower low (by simple macro analysis), because it was still indicate bearish market pressure. Obviously there's enough to show the bullish sentiment, but sometimes the bearish picture can fud any bullish sentiment. Remember $10.5K lower high? To me, this showed that enough investors had bought the $7-8K range amd demand had been satisfied, hence falling lower afterwards. The fact that we broke the bear channel is undoubtedly bullish, but without the higher high, we could still make new lows - or equal lows to $6K levels just as likely.

Thanks for that insight.

I would be certain to think and wait until we see the falling lower. I guess we just have to be prepare whenever it does show again at that manner. But as long as it doesn't decrease, we should have maintain our positions until we see the both side.

The possible bullish indicator for the price you have given or the lower one.

[hahay]

This weekend, I don't watch the market, and I think I will be back to the market tomorrow because usually, the market will make good movements in the next day. And I see that yesterday, bitcoin price is on a green candle, so I check with fast at the market today, and I am back to see the green candle again in the market, so I hope tomorrow, the green candle still appears at the market. But I know that it's not guaranteed to expect the same situation now because bitcoin price still moving up and down.

If the green candle happened the previous day then the next day that usually happens is the red candle, but what is happening now is very different because the green candle can last for several days as it did recently and I am also sure that positive movements like this will continue until tomorrow but can't be sure whether this will continue until the end of the quarter, so prepare yourself if you want to buy because the price is sure to be dipped at any time.

[criza]

For me, the price of Bitcoin would not dump again to its price in $8,000. It is possible for its price to decrease from $9,300 but, I think it would not be under $9,000, it would survive and will retain its price minimum is in $9K and would increase in the coming days ranging above the $9k value and would break the $9,400 barrier.

[206 bones]

It looks like it....  
There is some artificial inflation of the BTC price. Pure air.

20k is very conservative. BTC could reach six figures this or next year.

Please help me understand one thing
How is 9k right now pure air but next year 100k at least is perfectly fine?
What will happen till then, we split the atom, revive the kingdom of Arnor, we cure cancer?

Furthermore, how is the price "pure air" at 9400 but not on 8800?
Because subnitride burns at 9000 degrees?  

It's definitely going to be interesting to see where this goes and how traders will react just before/after the halving because that does present a solid sell the news type of event. Might be worth getting into a short if I spot signs of weakness early enough, but all that will translate into is a huge opportunity to buy the dip and add to your hodl stack.

Speaking of things that usually happen, you know that the price has a tendency to stay flat when people are expecting something total radical to happen, right?
I wouldn't be surprised if it stays at this value for the first half of the year, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to the moon, and I will just utter an "uh" if it dips again right after the halving.

Trying to predict things is nice, but when some people are trying to pinpoint the moves over a month period with an accuracy of 10$, it's really funny.

based on a plethora of different indicators (ex: MACD, Ihimoku, Hash)

How is that miner capitulation apocalypse going on?  

Hey there! Read this topic  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5218553.0

I explain all logic that support my forecasts.

[Finestream]

For me, the price of Bitcoin would not dump again to its price in $8,000. It is possible for its price to decrease from $9,300 but, I think it would not be under $9,000, it would survive and will retain its price minimum is in $9K and would increase in the coming days ranging above the $9k value and would break the $9,400 barrier.

Bitcoin price is close to dropping below $9,000 again. 24 hours low was 9108 per https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, so another dump could push the price t drop further, we can't really say because bitcoin has been so volatile so it could drop again, but I believe it would bounce back and make a new high this month, with this kind of trend if it continue, $10,000 will be achieve soon although sudden dump is possible.

[Quidat]

For me, the price of Bitcoin would not dump again to its price in $8,000. It is possible for its price to decrease from $9,300 but, I think it would not be under $9,000, it would survive and will retain its price minimum is in $9K and would increase in the coming days ranging above the $9k value and would break the $9,400 barrier.

Bitcoin price is close to dropping below $9,000 again. 24 hours low was 9108 per https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, so another dump could push the price t drop further, we can't really say because bitcoin has been so volatile so it could drop again, but I believe it would bounce back and make a new high this month, with this kind of trend if it continue, $10,000 will be achieve soon although sudden dump is possible.

I dont know why do people consider it as a dump. Moving 1-2% is just a typical stuff here on crypto.For now btc price is holding above 9k and i dont see
for it to dropped lower than that but still not an assurance because anytime it can dropped in a blink of an eye.We are already approaching halving
event and it seems it would really touch 5 digit price anytime soon as we are heading nearer.If incase theres a dump then we should ready our stashes to buy back.