(Bustabit) How often do long streaks of red come?

[leea-1334]

I wonder why some people argue and grasp the concepts differently!

For me, my English is poor but I can say this with true certainty. The more you play, the more likely you are to experience streaks. Whether it is red or green, just by playing much much more you can increase your likelihood to see this. It does not mean you WILL!

Every person who diced millions of hits can understand this;)

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[deisik]

Do you agree that Team A has a smaller chance to win the game but both teams have equal chance for winning the second half?

Yes, team B is more likely to win the game

But this is not the same as "as you progress along a run of losses, reaching 10 losses in a row becomes more likely, not less". Since we assume that the teams are of equal strength (read, it was a lucky kick for team B), losing the first half doesn't in the least mean that the team A has become closer to losing the second half, but this is what follows from the original example, i.e. losing the first half somehow facilitates losing the second half, i.e. losing all the halves, no matter how many there could be. Actually, your example is sooner proving my point rather than refuting it, as well as making it more clear overall. And this is definitely not semantics

[o_e_l_e_o]

but this is what follows from the original example, i.e. losing the first half somehow facilitates losing the second half, i.e. losing all the halves, no matter how many there could be.

If you are going to keep on arguing against a point that I am not making and have never made, there is no point trying to help you understand. My statement does not in any way imply that flipping 5 heads somehow facilitates flipping 5 more heads, and if you still think it does despite me explaining this several times then that's an issue with your English skills, not my logic skills.

I am going to make 10 flips.
Each flip has a probability of 0.5 to be heads.
Before I start, I have a 0.5¹⁰ (1 in 1024) probability of my next 10 flips being heads.
After I've made 1 flip, I have a 0.5⁹ (1 in 512) probability of my next 9 flips being heads.
After I've made 2 flips, I have a 0.5⁸ (1 in 256) probability of my next 8 flips being heads.
After I've made 3 flips, I have a 0.5⁷ (1 in 128) probability of my next 7 flips being heads.
After I've made 4 flips, I have a 0.5⁶ (1 in 64) probability of my next 6 flips being heads.
After I've made 5 flips, I have a 0.5⁵ (1 in 32) probability of my next 5 flips being heads.
After I've made 6 flips, I have a 0.5⁴ (1 in 16) probability of my next 4 flips being heads.
After I've made 7 flips, I have a 0.5³ (1 in 8) probability of my next 3 flips being heads.
After I've made 8 flips, I have a 0.5² (1 in 4) probability of my next 2 flips being heads.
After I've made 9 flips, I have a 0.5¹ (1 in 2) probability of my last flip being heads.

Now, if all my flips do end up as heads, then as I progress along my run of heads from having made 0 flips to having made 10 flips, the probability of my reaching 10 heads in a row becomes more likely.

This is going to be my last post on the subject, since I am running out of ways and examples to explain this very basic concept.

[deisik]

My statement does not in any way imply that flipping 5 heads somehow facilitates flipping 5 more heads, and if you still think it does despite me explaining this several times then that's an issue with your English skills, not my logic skills

Well, I don't really think that is your intention

To make it abundantly clear, I don't say you are deliberately implying (read, insinuating) that the past rolls or flips somehow determine the outcomes of future bets since we both seem to agree with the assumption that the bets are independent of each other. With that said, however, if you don't imply something, it may still follow from what you say. As you can see, it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with my English skills

This is going to be my last post on the subject, since I am running out of ways and examples to explain this very basic concept

Generally speaking, you are trying to apply a very abstract (thus basic) concept to a real-life situation but without adding back the factors which have been removed when making this concept abstract. The example with teams A and B clearly reveals the numerous pitfalls of this approach, its deficiency and inadequacy