100 Days Left before Bitcoin to be more Scarce

[Debonaire217]

It is expected that in May 12 2020, the most anticipated event will happen to bitcoin. That is the Bitcoin halving that occurs approximately every 4 years. We just need to wait 100 days starting from now, before this event happens and allot of people will anticipate about the great market value increasing because of the bitcoin mining reward halving.

But why does many people expect this way?

• First, the reason why market price of bitcoin will increase relies on the basic principle of demand and supply. Since the reward for miners will be cut in half, they might sell at higher price, driving the worlds market price of bitcoin to soar way up high.
• And other reason is because of the volatility of bitcoin that could be easily impacted because of this event. Bitcoin is known to be bullish anytime, even with just understanding its graph if it is overbought or oversold. Price could be driven very fast because of this reason, what more if a very big event that is anticipated by many becomes closer to happen.

There are also some speculations that bitcoin could achieve up to $400,000 as the demand for bitcoin increases.

IMO, right now that bitcoin is still achievable to be accumulated at lower price, I don't think we don't have the reason to take advantage of it even though it settled at $9,000 this week, I consider our status to still be called "early adopters of bitcoin".

Think about the system of bitcoin:

• Its protocol is consistent
• Still Decentralized
• Still Volatile
• And still limited to 21 Million Supply

No wonder, that we have been given a 10 year service with these characteristics. Yet, we aren't putting our trust to BTC. So if we really believe in Bitcoin, 100 days is nothing but a number for us to buy starting now, and to lead the way of cryptocurrency enthusiasts making bitcoin as the worlds valuable currency in the world.

For Reference, see link here

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[blckhawk]

There are two sides of the halving. While many are hyping up around the anticipation that it would peak once more, miners on the other hand are planning on quitting being a miner because their profit is effectively reduced by 50%.

The price increases because of FOMO, and investors don't want to get left behind because they all expect the halving would increase the price. Thus, we see a bullish run every halving, a combination of hype and demand-supply idea.

[UserU]

There are two sides of the halving. While many are hyping up around the anticipation that it would peak once more, miners on the other hand are planning on quitting being a miner because their profit is effectively reduced by 50%.

The price increases because of FOMO, and investors don't want to get left behind because they all expect the halving would increase the price. Thus, we see a bullish run every halving, a combination of hype and demand-supply idea.

It's trading at ~9.4K as we speak, so the halvening might spur its growth even more.

Looking forward to it.

[pooya87]

halving doesn't make bitcoin "more scarce", bitcoin is already as scarce as it gets. halving only slows down the production rate.
as for the price rise there are two part about it. the hyped up part that happens mostly before the halving and causes a big jump in price which could be to $20k this time and there is a more reasonable rise after the halving that would be due to less sell pressure on the market as the fresh coins that are being sold on the market would be reduced by 50% while demand keeps increasing. reaching a price such as $400k is easy.

[Debonaire217]

halving doesn't make bitcoin "more scarce", bitcoin is already as scarce as it gets. halving only slows down the production rate..

Basically you are correct at this fact, but the thought is to make people feel that bitcoin is getting scarce when in fact, it is already limited in supply in the very first place. So, with the bitcoin halving occurrence, people will see the opportunity to buy more because they will feel that bitcoin is hard to get, and the way we should really understand that bitcoin is increasing in its value.

[UserU]

Is there demand for permanent price increase, or is it going to just peak again. any thoughts?

Nobody knows. Remember, the peak price of ~18K has never been achieved again since the Bitcoin boom in 2017.

But surely as the miner rewards decrease, there's gonna be larger demands and hence, an increase in price.

[LogitechMouse]

There are two sides of the halving. While many are hyping up around the anticipation that it would peak once more, miners on the other hand are planning on quitting being a miner because their profit is effectively reduced by 50%.

If the price of Bitcoin will rise before the halving will occur, miners will think twice or thrice if they will continue to mine or not. Yes the Bitcoin amount will be reduce but if the price increases, it will be the same for them. Lets just wish that Bitcoin will not go below the price where most of the miners will stay profitable.

The price increases because of FOMO, and investors don't want to get left behind because they all expect the halving would increase the price. Thus, we see a bullish run every halving, a combination of hype and demand-supply idea.

TBH, they are just FOMO'ing because in the past 2 halvings of Bitcoin, its price increased and pumped but if you will see its price movement it rose up but after few weeks it went down too to make a correction. A bullish run when halving comes is normal already since it happened within the past 2 but I also expect that after halving, price will dump.

[Reatim]

halving doesn't make bitcoin "more scarce", bitcoin is already as scarce as it gets. halving only slows down the production rate..

Basically you are correct at this fact, but the thought is to make people feel that bitcoin is getting scarce when in fact, it is already limited in supply in the very first place. So, with the bitcoin halving occurrence, people will see the opportunity to buy more because they will feel that bitcoin is hard to get, and the way we should really understand that bitcoin is increasing in its value.

People that you are pointing are those outside the scene,those target audience right?because we(the people of cryptocurrency) already knew this thing and may consider or already considering in  accumulating bitcoin the near the halving comes and there are already purchase from the year past because bitcoin is very cheap those days and having bitcoin on their possessions will keep them positive in this coming halving.

[Leonardo7]

Halving I believe will definitely lead to the increase in the price of bitcoin because miners will be unwilling to sell low because they won't be getting bitcoin that cheap any longer and the difficulty level is expected to correspondingly increase. Too many reasons to be selfish with your bitcoin.

[TIDOVEE]

We are all expectant of the halving and this will launct us into bull run, bitcoin may actually appear scare and this is because the price will increase. This will not be in favor of the miners as they will not want to sell low at that time. We are all familiar with this pattern and we have to prepare for it to maximize profit, it does not concern the miners alone. Even the investors.

[magneto]

Why do people still seem to believe that bitcoin will become more scarce after a halving?

The supply of BTC will still continually increase regardless of whether or not there is a halving. After the halving, the rate of emission of new BTCs simply slow down - but that does not mean that all of a sudden previously minted BTCs will disappear out of thin air or anything of that sort.

People need to realise that bitcoin is disinflationary, not deflationary. It's one of the things that are grossly miscontrued by bitcoin naysayers.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Why do people still seem to believe that bitcoin will become more scarce after a halving?

I'm wondering that myself.  And even with the cap set at 21 million coins, we still have a long ways to go before we reach that, so bitcoin will technically be becoming less scarce right up until the last bitcoin is mined.  I wish either people would learn what a block reward halving really is or at least stop misstating the facts like OP did.

But hell yeah, upcoming halving!  I don't know what effect if any it's going to have on the market, but the last two seemed to have done good things, at least temporarily--or even permanently (and I hate to use that term here) if you consider that bitcoin is now over $9k and it was far, far below that before the last two halvings.  I'm curious to see what happens in any event.

[GreatArkansas]

Halving I believe will definitely lead to the increase in the price of bitcoin because miners will be unwilling to sell low because they won't be getting bitcoin that cheap any longer and the difficulty level is expected to correspondingly increase. Too many reasons to be selfish with your bitcoin.

For me, it does not all about Bitcoin miners will be the player here. But you have a point here, some miners will for sure hold some Bitcoins rather than selling it or they will stop mining anymore Bitcoins since the Bitcoin rewards will be less for the upcoming Bitcoin block halving.
Additionally, here is the website for the upcoming Block halving of Bitcoin.
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
That is a countdown in which you can see how many days/hours/minutes left before the halving and some latest information about Bitcoin.

[sheenshane]

I have been seen on this forum many people have noise and talking about Bitcoin halving come. IMO, if the previous halving event was successfully climbing exponentially, there is also have a big chance that on this event Bitcoin price will start surging in the market. Many of us expect the skyrocketing through this upcoming Bitcoin halving stage.

The fixed supply of Bitcoin(21 million) as a scarce asset will occur after the halving will effectively be done and it will surely affect the Bitcoin price with the unpredictable time frame. Yes, we are so close but we are still clueless when the skyrocketing will happen. Before, it took almost a year and an all-time wave at the price of $20k in December 2017, one year after the halving occurred.

[buwaytress]

Actually, I don't think it's the most anticipated event in Bitcoin at all -- at least not outside the speculation circle.

I was around in the last halving at it was a pretty big deal then, sure, but that's because probably most people and new users like myself at the time didn't realise until we saw it ourselves this was what happened. The hoo-ha died down after a while, and people still talked about $1k like it was a dream.

This halving's different because it's been well-publicised for years.

[hatshepsut93]

• First, the reason why market price of bitcoin will increase relies on the basic principle of demand and supply. Since the reward for miners will be cut in half, they might sell at higher price, driving the worlds market price of bitcoin to soar way up high.
• And other reason is because of the volatility of bitcoin that could be easily impacted because of this event. Bitcoin is known to be bullish anytime, even with just understanding its graph if it is overbought or oversold. Price could be driven very fast because of this reason, what more if a very big event that is anticipated by many becomes closer to happen.

These aren't some rules that are set in stone, and this is a very public knowledge, so it's very likely to be already priced in (though there's a question to what extent).
As for miners - they don't determine the price, they only follow it, so the argument that they will sell later is wrong.
About volatility - it works both ways, Bitcoin tends to be quite unexpected, and now everyone expects a bull run, so it might not happen or be delayed or be smaller than people expect.

[wxxyrqa]

I can’t understand a bit why halving is considered a certain means against bitcoin inflation, although in essence halving is necessary for the network to work in order to maintain the total number of bitcoins.  But nevertheless, each of us knows that Bitcoin exists only 21 million, that is, its quantity is limited, and unlike the Central Bank, which can print its national currency and thereby provoke inflation in the country, Bitcoin cannot be extracted more than there is on  really. Based on this, it turns out that we all expect the next halving of the miner's reward, which from 12.5 bitcoins will be reduced to 6.25 bitcoins.

[pakhitheboss]

Historically before every halving there has been a small Bull run. I expect the same to happen this time too. But, if you are talking about big price jump then that should happens next year.

In 2016 before halving there was a small Bull run but, the actual price rise happened in 2017.

[LUCKMCFLY]

~snip~

Regardless of what you expect people, there is a clear effect, when the reward is reduced only by economic law should demand increase, supply at the time will decrease, speculation by many analysts can stay there, perhaps the effect It is not immediate, the effect may be much later, because I think that the Fundamentals are what make the market move, after the emotions and plans that are of the Strong Hands, if we go to the stock-to-flow model, It is very real, and the best thing is that it is a model that can be established as the most valid, anyone who knows this is expected to have some BItcoin in Hodl, it is the most intelligent, because anything can happen in the market.

[Artemis3]

Why do people still seem to believe that bitcoin will become more scarce after a halving?

I'm wondering that myself.  And even with the cap set at 21 million coins, we still have a long ways to go before we reach that, so bitcoin will technically be becoming less scarce right up until the last bitcoin is mined.  I wish either people would learn what a block reward halving really is or at least stop misstating the facts like OP did.

But hell yeah, upcoming halving!  I don't know what effect if any it's going to have on the market, but the last two seemed to have done good things, at least temporarily--or even permanently (and I hate to use that term here) if you consider that bitcoin is now over $9k and it was far, far below that before the last two halvings.  I'm curious to see what happens in any event.

Scarcity will depend on the market, not production. Production has smoothly been slowing in the previous halvings, but most bitcoins are already in the market so things are not changing much, except for miners that will earn less as it has occurred in the previous halvings (mining is less profitable).

For miners you could say they will learn 50%, only if the price remained the same. So If the base was 7.5k, and after halving it remained at 7.5k, then sure, 50%. But it is my opinion that the price will be something like 10k, then they will be earning 25% less than before, not 50%.

In any case production of bitcoin at this point is not the main source, the market is. People willing to part with them or not, is what decides the price in the market, and of course people willing to acquire them. Price is always the result of supply and demand, with supply being the vast majority coins that already exist (18m/21m remember?)

In the first decade of Bitcoin's life, most coins have already been produced, and now production is minuscule and is getting microscopic. It simply doesn't affect price anymore because so little are being made in mining, and even less afterwards.

Its all going according to plan, very smoothly.

[fiulpro]

Okay that aside , I do not believe in the concept of bitcoins being scarce , because if it starts getting scarce we can still divide it into small small units like we still do , this will not affect anything honestly. If someone has to buy for 10$ , he can still buy for 10$ .

Scarcity is actually a good thing , it will more bitcoins more valuable and I think every investor can already see the big opportunity that is right before them .

[worle1bm]

The title of the thread is quite misleading. Bitcoin won't become scarce. Supply will still be increasing after halving but the increase in supply will slow down. In other words, we can say inflation of Bitcoin will decrease.

• And other reason is because of the volatility of bitcoin that could be easily impacted because of this event. Bitcoin is known to be bullish anytime, even with just understanding its graph if it is overbought or oversold. Price could be driven very fast because of this reason, what more if a very big event that is anticipated by many becomes closer to happen.

I don't think volatility has anything to do with supply. It is rather effected by adoption. If the supply will be distributed among greater mass then the price will stabilize automatically. Change in the supply won't change the volatility, rather I believe volatility increases after halving.

[kryptqnick]

There are two sides of the halving. While many are hyping up around the anticipation that it would peak once more, miners on the other hand are planning on quitting being a miner because their profit is effectively reduced by 50%.

The price increases because of FOMO, and investors don't want to get left behind because they all expect the halving would increase the price. Thus, we see a bullish run every halving, a combination of hype and demand-supply idea.

After the previous halving everything was not that positive either. People keep saying that it pushed the price up, but let's look at some facts. July 9th, 2016 was the day when the halving occurred. The price was $577. On June 17th it was $750, but it went to $591 five days after that. It was not until the end of November that the price climbed back to $750. Let's not forget that this wasn't anywhere near BTC ATH of $1121 from 2013. The new ATH was not reached before February of 2017 which is 7 months after the halving event. What I am saying is that it might take months if not more after till Bitcoin reaches the new ATH, and there's nothing keeping it from not reaching it in a long while. So maybe we should not keep our hopes up.

[wack slacker]

I think Bitcoin is preparing for a rapid rally like they did in 2016 and 2017. Of course history will repeat but it will depend on whether or not the recession will take place.  ?  Bitcoin exists after the recession and it doesn't have the experience to go through the next recession.  Based on the halving history I will choose Bitcoin to invest more than any asset, of course I will spend a part of money on Bitcoin rather than all.

[bryant.coleman]

I would like to remind everyone what happened during the previous two block reward halving events (2012 and 2016). Very few users had the fortune to be in Bitcointalk during that time, and I was one of those few people.

First Block reward halving (28th November 2012):

For most part of 2012, the exchange rates were hovering around $5 per coin. However a few months before the event, the exchange rates started rising. At the time of the halving event, the price was $12.31 per coin. And within the next 12 months, an ATH of $1,261 per coin was reached.

Second Block reward halving (9th July 2016):

By mid 2015, Bitcoin had lost almost 80% of its value it had attained during the ATH of 2013. However, from this time onwards, the prices began to go up. At the time of the block reward halving, the prices had climbed to $650 per coin from around $220. And within the next 18 months, an ATH of $20,000 per coin was achieved.

I first got my BTC in 2012, when the prices were around $10 per coin. I refrained from selling any of them, during the ATH of 2013. However, I faced a lot of financial crunch during 2015 and had to sell 70% of my coins at around $250. I sold around 10% during 2016-19, and still have the remaining 20%.

[Ryker1]

Well, there are a lot of conspiracy and theories about this 3rd bitcoin halving come and everyone had their own perception about it. For me, if the first and second halving was successfully surging the price of Bitcoin into the crypto market, I did not have a doubt that it will repeat again just like what happened to those previous events. As of now, we saw that the market begun to raise the price and perhaps this is the start to fuel and become skyrocketing. Indeed, it will remain unpredictable but there is one thing for sure will happen after the halving event effectively occurred.

[NavI_027]

First Block reward halving (28th November 2012):

For most part of 2012, the exchange rates were hovering around $5 per coin. However a few months before the event, the exchange rates started rising. At the time of the halving event, the price was $12.31 per coin. And within the next 12 months, an ATH of $1,261 per coin was reached.

Second Block reward halving (9th July 2016):

By mid 2015, Bitcoin had lost almost 80% of its value it had attained during the ATH of 2013. However, from this time onwards, the prices began to go up. At the time of the block reward halving, the prices had climbed to $650 per coin from around $220. And within the next 18 months, an ATH of $20,000 per coin was achieved.

I first got my BTC in 2012, when the prices were around $10 per coin. I refrained from selling any of them, during the ATH of 2013. However, I faced a lot of financial crunch during 2015 and had to sell 70% of my coins at around $250. I sold around 10% during 2016-19, and still have the remaining 20%.

Okay, now I more realized how bad my decision is; but I don't have any choice either because I really need money as much as possible at this moment (Actually what I withdraw is still not enough ). I just really hope I could catch up, I still have 3 months to save btc again and I think I can still make a profit even a little bit when that time comes. Continue saving everyone, good luck!

[Debonaire217]

Actually, I don't think it's the most anticipated event in Bitcoin at all -- at least not outside the speculation circle.

Well, incorporating bitcoin halving to bullish season is quite the big thing people have in mind for today, and if that is the case, to think of it as the reason why market will really drive uptrend is a reasonable idea as it pushes demand for people to buy.

This halving's different because it's been well-publicised for years.

Definitely, but the problem here is that, we could see much fluctuation even before halving starts, and the benefit of it to the market price could be experienced not in an instant, but with a certain span of time after market correction takes place.

[bryant.coleman]

Okay, now I more realized how bad my decision is; but I don't have any choice either because I really need money as much as possible at this moment (Actually what I withdraw is still not enough ). I just really hope I could catch up, I still have 3 months to save btc again and I think I can still make a profit even a little bit when that time comes. Continue saving everyone, good luck!

No need to get discouraged. There is no guarantee that there will be a major bull run this time, just because that was the case during the previous two events. Even during the second half of 2019, a lot of the whales were accumulating Bitcoin, in anticipation of the block reward halving this year. So there is also a chance of the prices crashing once the event happens (just like what happened to Litecoin, after its block reward halving in 2019). If the prices don't spike immediately after the halving event, then a lot many of the investors will start dumping their coins. MY advice is not to worry about what you have done. Rather than that, concentrate on what you are going to do next, in the next few years.

[NavI_027]

No need to get discouraged. There is no guarantee that there will be a major bull run this time, just because that was the case during the previous two events. Even during the second half of 2019, a lot of the whales were accumulating Bitcoin, in anticipation of the block reward halving this year. So there is also a chance of the prices crashing once the event happens (just like what happened to Litecoin, after its block reward halving in 2019). If the prices don't spike immediately after the halving event, then a lot many of the investors will start dumping their coins. MY advice is not to worry about what you have done. Rather than that, concentrate on what you are going to do next, in the next few years.

Thanks for the motivation mate, I deeply appreciate it . Yeah I know there's no 100% assurance that btc's price will skyrocket during/after the halving but I'm pretty sure that tendecies for it to rise is higher than the usual (like everybody feels right now). So you can't blame me if I'm getting a little bit upset right now. Why tons of expenses are on me this first quarter of 2020? Why oh why? What a bad timing .

[iram3130]

I would suggest everyone to look at the other side also. Why a miner should continue if he is already in profit from all of his investments on the equipment and hodling more for his future..?
If I am a miner who has achieved that then why would I continue to mine rather than just hodl or sell.? The electricity prices aint halving with Bitcoin. Will it be profitable with current prices of Bitcoin.?

I know that most of us think that miners will stop selling bitcoin for this price and as the demand continues the price may go up eventually. But what I felt is also a possibility..

[adaseb]

Actually, I don't think it's the most anticipated event in Bitcoin at all -- at least not outside the speculation circle.

I was around in the last halving at it was a pretty big deal then, sure, but that's because probably most people and new users like myself at the time didn't realise until we saw it ourselves this was what happened. The hoo-ha died down after a while, and people still talked about $1k like it was a dream.

This halving's different because it's been well-publicised for years.

Yes I agree with you, I was also around for the last halving and basically there was alot of hype a few days prior to the halving, and then maybe 24 hours after the halving, it was all forgotten more or less since it barely had any effect on price.

I think the bigger event for Bitcoin was when the Winkovoss ETF was denied and when the Bitcoin futures were announced. Those were major FOMO events. The halving weren't really that major in terms of speculation.

It won't spike up 10% immediately right after the halving block, its not a hard-fork, we all know that the halving will eventually happen. So most people already know what to expect. The price usually went up after the halving many many months later.

[pooya87]

I would suggest everyone to look at the other side also. Why a miner should continue if he is already in profit from all of his investments on the equipment and hodling more for his future..?
If I am a miner who has achieved that then why would I continue to mine rather than just hodl or sell.? The electricity prices aint halving with Bitcoin. Will it be profitable with current prices of Bitcoin.?

I know that most of us think that miners will stop selling bitcoin for this price and as the demand continues the price may go up eventually. But what I felt is also a possibility..

if you think about miners as a "business" rather than an "investment" then your views may change. a business is created to make money for the owner(s) and that means they have to liquidate whatever they mine which is what majority of miners do specially the big ones. they sell their bitcoin to earn "money".
however, small miners may act differently. they may even mine at a loss and never even sell their coins because for a small miner (like someone with 1 ASIC) mining is not a business, it is more like a long term investment.

[yazher]

A lot of things will surely happen after those 100 days. We will just need to hold our horses and not to go to the extreme. others our selling their home and precious properties to ride in this coming uptrend. most of us need to think of it twice and start calculating the possible loss. with the BTC Halving is soon to come, we only need to invest the amount that we won't get any regret if we lose it. It's better to be careful than end up crying with our loss.

[buwaytress]

Actually, I don't think it's the most anticipated event in Bitcoin at all -- at least not outside the speculation circle.

I was around in the last halving at it was a pretty big deal then, sure, but that's because probably most people and new users like myself at the time didn't realise until we saw it ourselves this was what happened. The hoo-ha died down after a while, and people still talked about $1k like it was a dream.

This halving's different because it's been well-publicised for years.

Yes I agree with you, I was also around for the last halving and basically there was alot of hype a few days prior to the halving, and then maybe 24 hours after the halving, it was all forgotten more or less since it barely had any effect on price.

I think the bigger event for Bitcoin was when the Winkovoss ETF was denied and when the Bitcoin futures were announced. Those were major FOMO events. The halving weren't really that major in terms of speculation.

It won't spike up 10% immediately right after the halving block, its not a hard-fork, we all know that the halving will eventually happen. So most people already know what to expect. The price usually went up after the halving many many months later.

Yeah, and that was in 2016 too, when we didn't have all these influencers flying around, nor all these altcoin ICO/IEO/WhateverO projects floating about and technical analysis was properly the domain of geekery. It was talked about, for sure, but in much more precise terms and there was a flurry of speculation activity (even tapering off to some other alts).

But now, the hype we hear around it, and every other big event for that matter, is all a result of massive backpatting among influencers and speculators.

but yeah, fomo's normal and we'll probably have to deal with it the rest of our natural lives too.

[fullhdpixel]

Okay, now I more realized how bad my decision is; but I don't have any choice either because I really need money as much as possible at this moment (Actually what I withdraw is still not enough ). I just really hope I could catch up, I still have 3 months to save btc again and I think I can still make a profit even a little bit when that time comes. Continue saving everyone, good luck!

No need to get discouraged. There is no guarantee that there will be a major bull run this time, just because that was the case during the previous two events. Even during the second half of 2019, a lot of the whales were accumulating Bitcoin, in anticipation of the block reward halving this year. So there is also a chance of the prices crashing once the event happens (just like what happened to Litecoin, after its block reward halving in 2019). If the prices don't spike immediately after the halving event, then a lot many of the investors will start dumping their coins. MY advice is not to worry about what you have done. Rather than that, concentrate on what you are going to do next, in the next few years.

The price for bitcoins after the halving would entirely depend on the demand. The demand for halving might rise but mostly it would depend on the big whales. If they keep on selling their bitcoins after the halving than even major people would consider selling their bitcoins seeing the huge sell orders and this might make the price for bitcoins experience a dump.

But on the other hand, if people keep on buying bitcoins in major quantity than the price might surely skyrocket after the halving event. So, actually the price pump or dump depends on us individually who would sell or buy bitcoins in the markets. I'm just wishing that bitcoins should not experience something which was experienced by litecoin in the year 2019.

[traderethereum]

I agree with this thread, it's better to prepare ourselves to collect some of the Bitcoins that we keep for the long term, I am very optimistic that after Halving, the price of Bitcoin will soar as in the previous Halving. And I also hope that the price of Altcoin will also follow the price of Bitcoin.

Yes, it is better to prepare for the bitcoin halving, so we can be ready to sell at the right moment. The opportunity for bitcoin to soar to the highest price will wide open because, in previous halving, we see bitcoin price can rise to $20k, and we can hope that this next halving can make bitcoin price jump to the next highest rate. The altcoin will follow the bitcoin price, although we don't know how high the altcoin will follow bitcoin price I am sure that the altcoin will have the best time to increase so high. You can prepare your altcoin too besides preparing your bitcoin to be sold at a higher price, and I see that the altcoin right now can increase step by step.

[coinfinger]

This year halving might bring something much interesting into the pricing of bitcoins. There might be two cases, in the first the price might constantly keep on rising which would surely bring the bull markets closer but in the second, the price may fall by 3/4th of the current value. We might not exactly know what would happen after the halving but considering the current signs of the markets, we could assume that the market is willing to go in the ascending manner which indeed would be much beneficial for holders/traders.

I would not call us current status as "early adopters" because already price has grown to $9000. Early adopters might be those who have afforded to buy bitcoins below $5000 and yet are holding.

[Baoo]

Absolutely yes, we are certainly excited for the next halving, this event will probably change everything in a special way but hope it is going to happen for real in July,  we don't expect more delays to be honest, so next months are so appropirate for HOLDING and even buying crypto especially Bitcoin  due to the current price is still under $10K.
In fact,  the halving event will affect negatively on the financial icome of  miners, so most of them will probably quit this job I would guess, it is very expected IMO.

[bryant.coleman]

Okay, now I more realized how bad my decision is; but I don't have any choice either because I really need money as much as possible at this moment (Actually what I withdraw is still not enough ). I just really hope I could catch up, I still have 3 months to save btc again and I think I can still make a profit even a little bit when that time comes. Continue saving everyone, good luck!

No need to get discouraged. There is no guarantee that there will be a major bull run this time, just because that was the case during the previous two events. Even during the second half of 2019, a lot of the whales were accumulating Bitcoin, in anticipation of the block reward halving this year. So there is also a chance of the prices crashing once the event happens (just like what happened to Litecoin, after its block reward halving in 2019). If the prices don't spike immediately after the halving event, then a lot many of the investors will start dumping their coins. MY advice is not to worry about what you have done. Rather than that, concentrate on what you are going to do next, in the next few years.

The price for bitcoins after the halving would entirely depend on the demand. The demand for halving might rise but mostly it would depend on the big whales. If they keep on selling their bitcoins after the halving than even major people would consider selling their bitcoins seeing the huge sell orders and this might make the price for bitcoins experience a dump.

But on the other hand, if people keep on buying bitcoins in major quantity than the price might surely skyrocket after the halving event. So, actually the price pump or dump depends on us individually who would sell or buy bitcoins in the markets. I'm just wishing that bitcoins should not experience something which was experienced by litecoin in the year 2019.

You need to consider a few facts while talking about the demand-supply equilibrium. For the last two years, there have been a few market movements which suppressed the exchange rates of Bitcoin. In 2018, the Mt Gox trustee (Nobuaki Kobayashi) dumped a huge amount of BTC in to the market and this had a negative impact on the prices. Also, a few of the hackers and ransomware operators were also dumping huge amount of coins in to the market in 2018 and 2019. This seems to have slowed down now.

At first glance, the impact from these dumping events may not look significant. Bitcoin is having a multi-billion USD daily trading volume and therefore these events should not influence the prices. But the reality is far more complex. A large part of the daily volume comes from day trading and inflated order books.

[smartbitcoininvestor]

We will likely see a slight price increase in the value of bitcoin. If the production rate is slowing down then this means miners are making less money which means they might need to upgrade their equipment and thus sell off some bitcoin as a result.

It probably won't be as big of a deal as the last bitcoin halving but it will affect the scarcity in one way or another. The bitcoin halving after this upcoming one will have an even less of an effect, so hopefully, the value of bitcoin goes way up this year

[carlisle1]

We will likely see a slight price increase in the value of bitcoin. If the production rate is slowing down then this means miners are making less money which means they might need to upgrade their equipment and thus sell off some bitcoin as a result.

upgrading the equipment are what usually Miners Do because they are updated also in the situations.
but most of the people i know are mining altcoins more than Bitcoin .

It probably won't be as big of a deal as the last bitcoin halving but it will affect the scarcity in one way or another. The bitcoin halving after this upcoming one will have an even less of an effect, so hopefully, the value of bitcoin goes way up this year

wow less effect?on what basis?the recent Halving even bring higher from the past and now you are saying this will be lesser?just because of the Mining equipment?nah i don't think you get it right there mate because no matter how Old the tools are still capable of bringing service and profit to miners.

[Google+]

We will likely see a slight price increase in the value of bitcoin. If the production rate is slowing down then this means miners are making less money which means they might need to upgrade their equipment and thus sell off some bitcoin as a result.

It probably won't be as big of a deal as the last bitcoin halving but it will affect the scarcity in one way or another. The bitcoin halving after this upcoming one will have an even less of an effect, so hopefully, the value of bitcoin goes way up this year

well, when the miners unplug and sell all of their mining tools, there will be less and less that can produce bitcoin and of course bitcoin will be very difficult to obtain because there are already few miners who produce bitcoin, with such cases it will have a good impact on the price of bitcoin which will be more expensive because it will be increasingly difficult to obtain.

[michellee]

We will likely see a slight price increase in the value of bitcoin. If the production rate is slowing down then this means miners are making less money which means they might need to upgrade their equipment and thus sell off some bitcoin as a result.

It probably won't be as big of a deal as the last bitcoin halving but it will affect the scarcity in one way or another. The bitcoin halving after this upcoming one will have an even less of an effect, so hopefully, the value of bitcoin goes way up this year

I am sure the miners already upgrade their equipment from the last year or this year because they realize that if they want to get the big reward, they need to have big hashrate of mining equipment. They are ready for the halving time, and they still mining until now. But I think that only the big miners which can upgrade their equipment because to buy the high-end equipment, it needs much money so for small miners, I think they still use the old equipment.

[tvplus006]

We will likely see a slight price increase in the value of bitcoin. If the production rate is slowing down then this means miners are making less money which means they might need to upgrade their equipment and thus sell off some bitcoin as a result.

It probably won't be as big of a deal as the last bitcoin halving but it will affect the scarcity in one way or another. The bitcoin halving after this upcoming one will have an even less of an effect, so hopefully, the value of bitcoin goes way up this year

After halving, miners will generate 900 bitcoins less per day. This is a small amount to make the market feel the deficit. However, even before, not all the volume of bitcoin generated per day was transferred to the cryptocurrency exchange. A small increase in the price of bitcoin, we see today. So bitcoin mining will be profitable even after halving.

[Sanugarid]

We will likely see a slight price increase in the value of bitcoin. If the production rate is slowing down then this means miners are making less money which means they might need to upgrade their equipment and thus sell off some bitcoin as a result.

It probably won't be as big of a deal as the last bitcoin halving but it will affect the scarcity in one way or another. The bitcoin halving after this upcoming one will have an even less of an effect, so hopefully, the value of bitcoin goes way up this year

We are still waiting for the biggest happenings that will occur this year and we do not actually know what is the result especially the halving of bitcoin. We are all hoping that it will be a good result and make it pump so that the market also can get back to its healthy state like before. About the scarcity of bitcoin, we do not know what will happen if the halving occurs, maybe we should wait.

There is no stopping in Bitcoin trading, so I don’t think there will be an end to the distribution of Bitcoin. The only thing is that the price might keep increasing till it reaches a level where it will be very expensive. So anyone that invests now should still be considered an early investor since the price will still rise above the current price level, but it’s definitely going to take a long time.

But, one thing I know for sure is that there wouldn’t be a time when Bitcoin would be scarce or something, there will always be enough for anyone to buy.

The idea is that the circulation is still happening with its high volume, I don't think scarcity will happen. The more buyers and investors will come the more upcoming project can be helped by them. So that bitcoin is not the only crypto that is going up. WE can say that there are lots of bad things happening as of now regarding bitcoin but the only thing we can do right now is to keep on supporting bitcoin.

[bryant.coleman]

I am sure the miners already upgrade their equipment from the last year or this year because they realize that if they want to get the big reward, they need to have big hashrate of mining equipment. They are ready for the halving time, and they still mining until now. But I think that only the big miners which can upgrade their equipment because to buy the high-end equipment, it needs much money so for small miners, I think they still use the old equipment.

Technology is advancing at the speed of light and it is very difficult to keep up with it. For example, a group of miners may spend a fortune to accumulate millions of USD worth of state of the art mining rigs, with the latest technology. But after 6 months, they will find themselves behind the technology race as by that time even better mining rigs will be in the market. Now the miners are left with very little options. If they want to go for the latest equipment, then they need to get rid of the old ones. And they won't be able to get good prices for their old equipment, since the second hand prices for mining equipment is not that good.

[xvids]

only 92 days left before halving and we already hit $10K mark on Bitcoin price would it continue to grow before we hit May 12?
I think it is just the beginning of it would we see it hit another ATH this year?
I don't really wish for it to hit a new ATH but instead just stay up into the 5 digit zone and never come back below $10k again.

[slaman29]

We will likely see a slight price increase in the value of bitcoin. If the production rate is slowing down then this means miners are making less money which means they might need to upgrade their equipment and thus sell off some bitcoin as a result.

It probably won't be as big of a deal as the last bitcoin halving but it will affect the scarcity in one way or another. The bitcoin halving after this upcoming one will have an even less of an effect, so hopefully, the value of bitcoin goes way up this year

A slight price increase? What would you call a 30% rise in price SO FAR in 2020? Of course, I'm not equating it to Bitcoin halving at all but my point is, even without halving, price could go out in huge numbers as it already is doing literally right now.

But Production rate means miners should also sell double the price to make the same profits. And we know they won't of course, as no one would buy it. But eventually we'll get there!

[Docnaster]

Why do people still seem to believe that bitcoin will become more scarce after a halving?

I'm wondering that myself.  And even with the cap set at 21 million coins, we still have a long ways to go before we reach that, so bitcoin will technically be becoming less scarce right up until the last bitcoin is mined.  I wish either people would learn what a block reward halving really is or at least stop misstating the facts like OP did.

But hell yeah, upcoming halving!  I don't know what effect if any it's going to have on the market, but the last two seemed to have done good things, at least temporarily--or even permanently (and I hate to use that term here) if you consider that bitcoin is now over $9k and it was far, far below that before the last two halvings.  I'm curious to see what happens in any event.

Scarcity will depend on the market, not production. Production has smoothly been slowing in the previous halvings, but most bitcoins are already in the market so things are not changing much, except for miners that will earn less as it has occurred in the previous halvings (mining is less profitable)

So long as usage exceeds the rate of production of new BTC (around 1.8% per year) then there should always be a net shortage.

With that said, if the absolute utility decreases, then scarcity would also decrease as more people want to sell than buy.

I actually think that we'll grow at far more than 1.8% per year though, more like 50% growth for the next several years in terms of users, merchants and transactions, which should overall lead to increase scarcity and price appreciation.

[buwaytress]

Bitcoin isn't going to be more scarce, just to get things straight. New Bitcoin introduced into circulating supply will only have its rate cut in half... so 50% fewer new bitcoins generated every block. That's all.

The max supply and available bitcoin isn't actually becoming scarcer, that happens only when more people accumulate and hold, or they're permanently lost (either through accidents or death). In which case, we can assume this is happening more and more every day and only when lost or withheld supply is more than new supply will bitcoin be "more scarce".

It's only psychological though to me. 1 btc = 100 million smaller units.

[bryant.coleman]

Bitcoin isn't going to be more scarce, just to get things straight. New Bitcoin introduced into circulating supply will only have its rate cut in half... so 50% fewer new bitcoins generated every block. That's all.

The max supply and available bitcoin isn't actually becoming scarcer, that happens only when more people accumulate and hold, or they're permanently lost (either through accidents or death). In which case, we can assume this is happening more and more every day and only when lost or withheld supply is more than new supply will bitcoin be "more scarce".

It's only psychological though to me. 1 btc = 100 million smaller units.

The supply of "fresh" coins will become scarce and there is no doubt about it. As of now, some 656,250 coins are being mined every year, and in around three months this amount will drop to half of that. As of now, there are close to 18 million coins in circulation, but a large part of this is not in free-float. Some 4 million coins are "lost" (i.e no one is having the private keys to move them) and a larger amount is being kept in cold storage. Considering this, the suppy reduction is going to have an impact on Bitcoin exchange rates.

[Slow death]

• First, the reason why market price of bitcoin will increase relies on the basic principle of demand and supply. Since the reward for miners will be cut in half, they might sell at higher price, driving the worlds market price of bitcoin to soar way up high.

on this subject, I wondered about the following: When the bitcoin price was $ 1000 I didn't see the miners complaining about the price. When the price was  $3000 I also didn't see the miners complaining about the price. It seems to me that the bitcoin price is decided only by buyers and sellers and the miners just conform to this market

[Artemis3]

Bitcoin isn't going to be more scarce, just to get things straight. New Bitcoin introduced into circulating supply will only have its rate cut in half... so 50% fewer new bitcoins generated every block. That's all.

The max supply and available bitcoin isn't actually becoming scarcer, that happens only when more people accumulate and hold, or they're permanently lost (either through accidents or death). In which case, we can assume this is happening more and more every day and only when lost or withheld supply is more than new supply will bitcoin be "more scarce".

It's only psychological though to me. 1 btc = 100 million smaller units.

The supply of "fresh" coins will become scarce and there is no doubt about it. As of now, some 656,250 coins are being mined every year, and in around three months this amount will drop to half of that. As of now, there are close to 18 million coins in circulation, but a large part of this is not in free-float. Some 4 million coins are "lost" (i.e no one is having the private keys to move them) and a larger amount is being kept in cold storage. Considering this, the suppy reduction is going to have an impact on Bitcoin exchange rates.

Some people seem to have gotten this the wrong way, this is not oil production we are talking here where little is put on hold and most is burnt right away.

Bitcoin production is ALREADY insignificant, and its becoming EVEN MORE insignificant. Note that this has been occurring over time as designed, most coins are already minted and the reminder is the last 14%.

It didn't matter if mining was profitable or not, if there were few or millions of miners, Bitcoin production was set in the code and this has executed as written. Bitcoin is a program running in a computer, which happens to be distributed across the globe. The program is very well documented and reviewed, thanks to being Free and Open Source code.

Furthermore if you paid attention, this "reduction" of production has occurred very smoothly, not suddenly. Again, exactly as designed. It was fast and furious at first, and now its slowing down into a crawl going to the point of irrelevancy. 86% of the coins were produced in 11 years, of the reminder 14%, 86% of that (420k BTC) will be produced in the next 11 years, and so on and on. See the pattern? (ok its actually every 4 years half of the previous, but you get the idea).

There is nothing "new", unexpected or "sudden" about a halving, it is the continuation in the programmed slowdown in bitcoin production. Most of the coins are already in the market, the supply and demand is largely decided by whats already out there already, this 14% remainder isn't going to affect the price much anymore.

Yes it is LESS and LESS than before, this is absolutely correct.

And yes, technically its not 21 million bitcoin, the absolute number is measured in satoshis, there are so many of them before it ever becomes a practical issue. Just express everything in satoshis and see for yourself.

Yes a bitcoin is a cosmetic unit of measure equal to a hundred million satoshis, the actual number is near 21 000 000 000 000 000 satoshis.

[20kevin20]

on this subject, I wondered about the following: When the bitcoin price was $ 1000 I didn't see the miners complaining about the price. When the price was  $3000 I also didn't see the miners complaining about the price. It seems to me that the bitcoin price is decided only by buyers and sellers and the miners just conform to this market

The miners are not complaining because probably most of them know the price has only increased post-halving. The $3k price most likely hurt some of the miners, but they know the higher price will return. If it does not, mining isn't profitable anymore so they'll shut their rigs down (unless they're some heavy BTC fans and mine Bitcoin just for the sake of it, like they did back when BTC was launched) as soon as they're paying for electricity.

Almost nobody would mine without profit. It would make more sense then to use money to buy then Bitcoin rather than using it to invest in mining equipment. If you're mining now and know that after every halving your accumulated BTC turns out to be 10-20x more expensive, you're going to not care about the months of lower BTC price. It makes more sense to sell the mined BTC only when its price increased enough for it to be considered a large profit than selling it as soon as you mine it, doesn't it?

[gundala]

A few days have started to show a positive trend. if this continues it will likely have a very positive effect. With this halving system, it makes BTC even more difficult to be mined, its scarcity also increases with the movement of economic law from supply and demand. This is a brilliant system, so it is very effective and provides a great opportunity for cryptocurrency enthusiasts to make a profit. Continue to monitor its movements and don't miss the best moments:D

--

Almost nobody would mine without profit. It would make more sense then to use money to buy then Bitcoin rather than using it to invest in mining equipment. If you're mining now and know that after every halving your accumulated BTC turns out to be 10-20x more expensive, you're going to not care about the months of lower BTC price. It makes more sense to sell the mined BTC only when its price increased enough for it to be considered a large profit than selling it as soon as you mine it, doesn't it?

You are right, especially with the increasing level of difficulty. It would be better to sell it at a higher level to cover operational costs, maintenance, electricity and internet bills, etc. If you don't want to lose a good strategy is needed.

[Kelvinid]

People are already anticipating the possible huge market pumps this coming halving and they are now currently in the hold as I believe.
Bitcoin price is peaking up everyday making a way for Bullrun ( I hope it will). But saying for scarcity, we certainly not be going that moment and we are really overthinking that miners could able to mine 21 million bitcoins.
https://www.investopedia.com/tech/what-happens-bitcoin-after-21-million-mined/.

I'd love to see people appreciate the current market movements but I'm afraid to see FOMO'eng that possibly will happen in the coming days.

[RealMalatesta]

I don't really know what you mean about being scarce, if you mean a time when the cryptocurrency won't be available for anyone that wants to buy it, then I'm not going to believe that. There are trading platforms and every time people are buying and selling. There is not a day you will place a buy or sell order and it won't be processed due to lack of assets to purchase in the market or whatsoever lol.

It is still going to continue going round even after the whole coins are lined, there will still be coins for you to buy and sell. I do believe that after the halving there is going to be an increase, but I'm not sure about that. I can really predict the future of Bitcoin, all we can do is just to speculate on the price.

[Mahanton]

I don't really know what you mean about being scarce, if you mean a time when the cryptocurrency won't be available for anyone that wants to buy it, then I'm not going to believe that. There are trading platforms and every time people are buying and selling. There is not a day you will place a buy or sell order and it won't be processed due to lack of assets to purchase in the market or whatsoever lol.

It is still going to continue going round even after the whole coins are lined, there will still be coins for you to buy and sell. I do believe that after the halving there is going to be an increase, but I'm not sure about that. I can really predict the future of Bitcoin, all we can do is just to speculate on the price.

Scarce on the sense that bitcoin reward blocks cuts in half which means if the demand is constant or even does increase then it will surely have some effect on its price.
When we do talk about total supply then its already fixed as we know it the only thing here is that as more halvings do happen the more harder to generate new coins
but we know that it would take a hundred years before the whole supply would be mined out thats why its not really relevant to mind or stress yourself too much into these matters.

[7788bitcoin]

Technology is advancing at the speed of light and it is very difficult to keep up with it. For example, a group of miners may spend a fortune to accumulate millions of USD worth of state of the art mining rigs, with the latest technology. But after 6 months, they will find themselves behind the technology race as by that time even better mining rigs will be in the market. Now the miners are left with very little options. If they want to go for the latest equipment, then they need to get rid of the old ones. And they won't be able to get good prices for their old equipment, since the second hand prices for mining equipment is not that good.

There is no debate that the technology is developing at a fast pace but there is a point in which it will take time to develop further as now we are talking about 3 nm technology which was announced by Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Company but these big miners have spent millions to built up the farms and i do not think that they will replace everything and even in the mining market there is competition and the company with big funds will always win.

[Zemomtum]

Well, I concurred with your opinion but we might only have a small bull run before the halving as it happened in the year 2016 before the massive and all-time high happened in the year 2017. I am anticipating even a very big move come next year.