100 Days Left before Bitcoin to be more Scarce

[fiulpro]

Okay that aside , I do not believe in the concept of bitcoins being scarce , because if it starts getting scarce we can still divide it into small small units like we still do , this will not affect anything honestly. If someone has to buy for 10$ , he can still buy for 10$ .

Scarcity is actually a good thing , it will more bitcoins more valuable and I think every investor can already see the big opportunity that is right before them .

[1714797310]

1714797310

[worle1bm]

The title of the thread is quite misleading. Bitcoin won't become scarce. Supply will still be increasing after halving but the increase in supply will slow down. In other words, we can say inflation of Bitcoin will decrease.

• And other reason is because of the volatility of bitcoin that could be easily impacted because of this event. Bitcoin is known to be bullish anytime, even with just understanding its graph if it is overbought or oversold. Price could be driven very fast because of this reason, what more if a very big event that is anticipated by many becomes closer to happen.

I don't think volatility has anything to do with supply. It is rather effected by adoption. If the supply will be distributed among greater mass then the price will stabilize automatically. Change in the supply won't change the volatility, rather I believe volatility increases after halving.

[kryptqnick]

There are two sides of the halving. While many are hyping up around the anticipation that it would peak once more, miners on the other hand are planning on quitting being a miner because their profit is effectively reduced by 50%.

The price increases because of FOMO, and investors don't want to get left behind because they all expect the halving would increase the price. Thus, we see a bullish run every halving, a combination of hype and demand-supply idea.

After the previous halving everything was not that positive either. People keep saying that it pushed the price up, but let's look at some facts. July 9th, 2016 was the day when the halving occurred. The price was $577. On June 17th it was $750, but it went to $591 five days after that. It was not until the end of November that the price climbed back to $750. Let's not forget that this wasn't anywhere near BTC ATH of $1121 from 2013. The new ATH was not reached before February of 2017 which is 7 months after the halving event. What I am saying is that it might take months if not more after till Bitcoin reaches the new ATH, and there's nothing keeping it from not reaching it in a long while. So maybe we should not keep our hopes up.

[wack slacker]

I think Bitcoin is preparing for a rapid rally like they did in 2016 and 2017. Of course history will repeat but it will depend on whether or not the recession will take place.  ?  Bitcoin exists after the recession and it doesn't have the experience to go through the next recession.  Based on the halving history I will choose Bitcoin to invest more than any asset, of course I will spend a part of money on Bitcoin rather than all.

[bryant.coleman]

I would like to remind everyone what happened during the previous two block reward halving events (2012 and 2016). Very few users had the fortune to be in Bitcointalk during that time, and I was one of those few people.

First Block reward halving (28th November 2012):

For most part of 2012, the exchange rates were hovering around $5 per coin. However a few months before the event, the exchange rates started rising. At the time of the halving event, the price was $12.31 per coin. And within the next 12 months, an ATH of $1,261 per coin was reached.

Second Block reward halving (9th July 2016):

By mid 2015, Bitcoin had lost almost 80% of its value it had attained during the ATH of 2013. However, from this time onwards, the prices began to go up. At the time of the block reward halving, the prices had climbed to $650 per coin from around $220. And within the next 18 months, an ATH of $20,000 per coin was achieved.

I first got my BTC in 2012, when the prices were around $10 per coin. I refrained from selling any of them, during the ATH of 2013. However, I faced a lot of financial crunch during 2015 and had to sell 70% of my coins at around $250. I sold around 10% during 2016-19, and still have the remaining 20%.

[Ryker1]

Well, there are a lot of conspiracy and theories about this 3rd bitcoin halving come and everyone had their own perception about it. For me, if the first and second halving was successfully surging the price of Bitcoin into the crypto market, I did not have a doubt that it will repeat again just like what happened to those previous events. As of now, we saw that the market begun to raise the price and perhaps this is the start to fuel and become skyrocketing. Indeed, it will remain unpredictable but there is one thing for sure will happen after the halving event effectively occurred.

[NavI_027]

First Block reward halving (28th November 2012):

For most part of 2012, the exchange rates were hovering around $5 per coin. However a few months before the event, the exchange rates started rising. At the time of the halving event, the price was $12.31 per coin. And within the next 12 months, an ATH of $1,261 per coin was reached.

Second Block reward halving (9th July 2016):

By mid 2015, Bitcoin had lost almost 80% of its value it had attained during the ATH of 2013. However, from this time onwards, the prices began to go up. At the time of the block reward halving, the prices had climbed to $650 per coin from around $220. And within the next 18 months, an ATH of $20,000 per coin was achieved.

I first got my BTC in 2012, when the prices were around $10 per coin. I refrained from selling any of them, during the ATH of 2013. However, I faced a lot of financial crunch during 2015 and had to sell 70% of my coins at around $250. I sold around 10% during 2016-19, and still have the remaining 20%.

Okay, now I more realized how bad my decision is; but I don't have any choice either because I really need money as much as possible at this moment (Actually what I withdraw is still not enough ). I just really hope I could catch up, I still have 3 months to save btc again and I think I can still make a profit even a little bit when that time comes. Continue saving everyone, good luck!

[Debonaire217]

Actually, I don't think it's the most anticipated event in Bitcoin at all -- at least not outside the speculation circle.

Well, incorporating bitcoin halving to bullish season is quite the big thing people have in mind for today, and if that is the case, to think of it as the reason why market will really drive uptrend is a reasonable idea as it pushes demand for people to buy.

This halving's different because it's been well-publicised for years.

Definitely, but the problem here is that, we could see much fluctuation even before halving starts, and the benefit of it to the market price could be experienced not in an instant, but with a certain span of time after market correction takes place.

[bryant.coleman]

Okay, now I more realized how bad my decision is; but I don't have any choice either because I really need money as much as possible at this moment (Actually what I withdraw is still not enough ). I just really hope I could catch up, I still have 3 months to save btc again and I think I can still make a profit even a little bit when that time comes. Continue saving everyone, good luck!

No need to get discouraged. There is no guarantee that there will be a major bull run this time, just because that was the case during the previous two events. Even during the second half of 2019, a lot of the whales were accumulating Bitcoin, in anticipation of the block reward halving this year. So there is also a chance of the prices crashing once the event happens (just like what happened to Litecoin, after its block reward halving in 2019). If the prices don't spike immediately after the halving event, then a lot many of the investors will start dumping their coins. MY advice is not to worry about what you have done. Rather than that, concentrate on what you are going to do next, in the next few years.

[NavI_027]

No need to get discouraged. There is no guarantee that there will be a major bull run this time, just because that was the case during the previous two events. Even during the second half of 2019, a lot of the whales were accumulating Bitcoin, in anticipation of the block reward halving this year. So there is also a chance of the prices crashing once the event happens (just like what happened to Litecoin, after its block reward halving in 2019). If the prices don't spike immediately after the halving event, then a lot many of the investors will start dumping their coins. MY advice is not to worry about what you have done. Rather than that, concentrate on what you are going to do next, in the next few years.

Thanks for the motivation mate, I deeply appreciate it . Yeah I know there's no 100% assurance that btc's price will skyrocket during/after the halving but I'm pretty sure that tendecies for it to rise is higher than the usual (like everybody feels right now). So you can't blame me if I'm getting a little bit upset right now. Why tons of expenses are on me this first quarter of 2020? Why oh why? What a bad timing .

[iram3130]

I would suggest everyone to look at the other side also. Why a miner should continue if he is already in profit from all of his investments on the equipment and hodling more for his future..?
If I am a miner who has achieved that then why would I continue to mine rather than just hodl or sell.? The electricity prices aint halving with Bitcoin. Will it be profitable with current prices of Bitcoin.?

I know that most of us think that miners will stop selling bitcoin for this price and as the demand continues the price may go up eventually. But what I felt is also a possibility..

[adaseb]

Actually, I don't think it's the most anticipated event in Bitcoin at all -- at least not outside the speculation circle.

I was around in the last halving at it was a pretty big deal then, sure, but that's because probably most people and new users like myself at the time didn't realise until we saw it ourselves this was what happened. The hoo-ha died down after a while, and people still talked about $1k like it was a dream.

This halving's different because it's been well-publicised for years.

Yes I agree with you, I was also around for the last halving and basically there was alot of hype a few days prior to the halving, and then maybe 24 hours after the halving, it was all forgotten more or less since it barely had any effect on price.

I think the bigger event for Bitcoin was when the Winkovoss ETF was denied and when the Bitcoin futures were announced. Those were major FOMO events. The halving weren't really that major in terms of speculation.

It won't spike up 10% immediately right after the halving block, its not a hard-fork, we all know that the halving will eventually happen. So most people already know what to expect. The price usually went up after the halving many many months later.

[pooya87]

I would suggest everyone to look at the other side also. Why a miner should continue if he is already in profit from all of his investments on the equipment and hodling more for his future..?
If I am a miner who has achieved that then why would I continue to mine rather than just hodl or sell.? The electricity prices aint halving with Bitcoin. Will it be profitable with current prices of Bitcoin.?

I know that most of us think that miners will stop selling bitcoin for this price and as the demand continues the price may go up eventually. But what I felt is also a possibility..

if you think about miners as a "business" rather than an "investment" then your views may change. a business is created to make money for the owner(s) and that means they have to liquidate whatever they mine which is what majority of miners do specially the big ones. they sell their bitcoin to earn "money".
however, small miners may act differently. they may even mine at a loss and never even sell their coins because for a small miner (like someone with 1 ASIC) mining is not a business, it is more like a long term investment.

[yazher]

A lot of things will surely happen after those 100 days. We will just need to hold our horses and not to go to the extreme. others our selling their home and precious properties to ride in this coming uptrend. most of us need to think of it twice and start calculating the possible loss. with the BTC Halving is soon to come, we only need to invest the amount that we won't get any regret if we lose it. It's better to be careful than end up crying with our loss.

[buwaytress]

Actually, I don't think it's the most anticipated event in Bitcoin at all -- at least not outside the speculation circle.

I was around in the last halving at it was a pretty big deal then, sure, but that's because probably most people and new users like myself at the time didn't realise until we saw it ourselves this was what happened. The hoo-ha died down after a while, and people still talked about $1k like it was a dream.

This halving's different because it's been well-publicised for years.

Yes I agree with you, I was also around for the last halving and basically there was alot of hype a few days prior to the halving, and then maybe 24 hours after the halving, it was all forgotten more or less since it barely had any effect on price.

I think the bigger event for Bitcoin was when the Winkovoss ETF was denied and when the Bitcoin futures were announced. Those were major FOMO events. The halving weren't really that major in terms of speculation.

It won't spike up 10% immediately right after the halving block, its not a hard-fork, we all know that the halving will eventually happen. So most people already know what to expect. The price usually went up after the halving many many months later.

Yeah, and that was in 2016 too, when we didn't have all these influencers flying around, nor all these altcoin ICO/IEO/WhateverO projects floating about and technical analysis was properly the domain of geekery. It was talked about, for sure, but in much more precise terms and there was a flurry of speculation activity (even tapering off to some other alts).

But now, the hype we hear around it, and every other big event for that matter, is all a result of massive backpatting among influencers and speculators.

but yeah, fomo's normal and we'll probably have to deal with it the rest of our natural lives too.

[fullhdpixel]

Okay, now I more realized how bad my decision is; but I don't have any choice either because I really need money as much as possible at this moment (Actually what I withdraw is still not enough ). I just really hope I could catch up, I still have 3 months to save btc again and I think I can still make a profit even a little bit when that time comes. Continue saving everyone, good luck!

No need to get discouraged. There is no guarantee that there will be a major bull run this time, just because that was the case during the previous two events. Even during the second half of 2019, a lot of the whales were accumulating Bitcoin, in anticipation of the block reward halving this year. So there is also a chance of the prices crashing once the event happens (just like what happened to Litecoin, after its block reward halving in 2019). If the prices don't spike immediately after the halving event, then a lot many of the investors will start dumping their coins. MY advice is not to worry about what you have done. Rather than that, concentrate on what you are going to do next, in the next few years.

The price for bitcoins after the halving would entirely depend on the demand. The demand for halving might rise but mostly it would depend on the big whales. If they keep on selling their bitcoins after the halving than even major people would consider selling their bitcoins seeing the huge sell orders and this might make the price for bitcoins experience a dump.

But on the other hand, if people keep on buying bitcoins in major quantity than the price might surely skyrocket after the halving event. So, actually the price pump or dump depends on us individually who would sell or buy bitcoins in the markets. I'm just wishing that bitcoins should not experience something which was experienced by litecoin in the year 2019.

[traderethereum]

I agree with this thread, it's better to prepare ourselves to collect some of the Bitcoins that we keep for the long term, I am very optimistic that after Halving, the price of Bitcoin will soar as in the previous Halving. And I also hope that the price of Altcoin will also follow the price of Bitcoin.

Yes, it is better to prepare for the bitcoin halving, so we can be ready to sell at the right moment. The opportunity for bitcoin to soar to the highest price will wide open because, in previous halving, we see bitcoin price can rise to $20k, and we can hope that this next halving can make bitcoin price jump to the next highest rate. The altcoin will follow the bitcoin price, although we don't know how high the altcoin will follow bitcoin price I am sure that the altcoin will have the best time to increase so high. You can prepare your altcoin too besides preparing your bitcoin to be sold at a higher price, and I see that the altcoin right now can increase step by step.

[coinfinger]

This year halving might bring something much interesting into the pricing of bitcoins. There might be two cases, in the first the price might constantly keep on rising which would surely bring the bull markets closer but in the second, the price may fall by 3/4th of the current value. We might not exactly know what would happen after the halving but considering the current signs of the markets, we could assume that the market is willing to go in the ascending manner which indeed would be much beneficial for holders/traders.

I would not call us current status as "early adopters" because already price has grown to $9000. Early adopters might be those who have afforded to buy bitcoins below $5000 and yet are holding.

[Baoo]

Absolutely yes, we are certainly excited for the next halving, this event will probably change everything in a special way but hope it is going to happen for real in July,  we don't expect more delays to be honest, so next months are so appropirate for HOLDING and even buying crypto especially Bitcoin  due to the current price is still under $10K.
In fact,  the halving event will affect negatively on the financial icome of  miners, so most of them will probably quit this job I would guess, it is very expected IMO.

[bryant.coleman]

Okay, now I more realized how bad my decision is; but I don't have any choice either because I really need money as much as possible at this moment (Actually what I withdraw is still not enough ). I just really hope I could catch up, I still have 3 months to save btc again and I think I can still make a profit even a little bit when that time comes. Continue saving everyone, good luck!

No need to get discouraged. There is no guarantee that there will be a major bull run this time, just because that was the case during the previous two events. Even during the second half of 2019, a lot of the whales were accumulating Bitcoin, in anticipation of the block reward halving this year. So there is also a chance of the prices crashing once the event happens (just like what happened to Litecoin, after its block reward halving in 2019). If the prices don't spike immediately after the halving event, then a lot many of the investors will start dumping their coins. MY advice is not to worry about what you have done. Rather than that, concentrate on what you are going to do next, in the next few years.

The price for bitcoins after the halving would entirely depend on the demand. The demand for halving might rise but mostly it would depend on the big whales. If they keep on selling their bitcoins after the halving than even major people would consider selling their bitcoins seeing the huge sell orders and this might make the price for bitcoins experience a dump.

But on the other hand, if people keep on buying bitcoins in major quantity than the price might surely skyrocket after the halving event. So, actually the price pump or dump depends on us individually who would sell or buy bitcoins in the markets. I'm just wishing that bitcoins should not experience something which was experienced by litecoin in the year 2019.

You need to consider a few facts while talking about the demand-supply equilibrium. For the last two years, there have been a few market movements which suppressed the exchange rates of Bitcoin. In 2018, the Mt Gox trustee (Nobuaki Kobayashi) dumped a huge amount of BTC in to the market and this had a negative impact on the prices. Also, a few of the hackers and ransomware operators were also dumping huge amount of coins in to the market in 2018 and 2019. This seems to have slowed down now.

At first glance, the impact from these dumping events may not look significant. Bitcoin is having a multi-billion USD daily trading volume and therefore these events should not influence the prices. But the reality is far more complex. A large part of the daily volume comes from day trading and inflated order books.