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Author Topic: POST BREXIT FUTURE FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM & THE EU  (Read 502 times)
JollyGood
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February 02, 2020, 01:08:17 AM
Last edit: March 05, 2020, 01:49:40 PM by JollyGood
 #1





The United Kingdom officially exited the European Union on 31st January 2020 but both parties are allowing time to strike a trade deal. They have until 31st December 2020 to agree to a UK/EU trade deal which would include all things from banking/finance to import/export customs taxes to visa free travel arrangements and intelligence sharing - and more...

What does the future hold for the EU on the following basis the United Kingdom is no long a member of the EU (Brexit has taken place) and the UK was the biggest EU trading partner in terms of purchasing goods and services from the other EU member states. The EU needs the UK much more than the UK needs the EU.

What would happen to the European Union if - Italy with its right wing and anti-EU government if they went through with their threat to expel Poland from the EU because of recent domestic laws that were passed by their parliament which are against EU laws?

Or what would happen if Italy with its right wing and anti-EU government decided to dump the EURO and reintroduced the Lira as their currency? Or if they went a step further and decided to hold their own referendum about whether to exit the EU or not?

What about Greece? The EU bailouts have tightened its noose around Greece and effectively made it bankrupt and in-debt to the EU which was bankrolled by Germany. If the dump the EURO and reintroduce the Greek Drachma or decide to exit the EU because of all the problems the EU has brought them - then how will the EU modify its model to survive?

The same could apply to all EU member states with Spain maybe likely candidate too if it was not seeking consensus on trying to take sovereignty over Gibraltar and taking advantage of the fact it will have the EU support in its case against a non-EU member such as the United Kingdom.

If just one country upset the system by reverting back to their pre-EURO currency or exited the EU (just as the UK did) then what future would it hold for the EU? Further referendum by other members states just might bring in a vote to leave the EU - thus diminishing the power of the EU and bringing about its demise sooner. Maybe it will exist but in a much smaller capacity that it is now.

What do you see the EU looking like over the next few years? And how would you see the UK during that same period? Personally I see it as the beginning of the end for the EU. What started off as an economic co-operation between a handful of countries in 1957 under the Treaty of Rome creating the EEC morphed in to an almost European Superstate (or United States of Europe) but it was rejected by the United Kingdom.

The United Kingdom will now seek free-trade deals with the rest of the international community. Both the EU and the UK are now starting new pages in their history after Brexit.



Edit 5th March 2020: New British Passport pic added





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February 02, 2020, 07:19:13 AM
 #2

a deal has been agreed. almost like saying "we need to divorce" but its not till december until we actually part ways. we still have to obide by their laws an current policies and trade agreements. thus no exit yet.
just a mutually agreed divorce

there is no big drama or concern from the UK prospective. the UK will thrive. the only drama for the EU is other countries may drop out. but then EU will try grabbing new countries to replace it.

but thats EU's problem

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February 02, 2020, 07:36:53 AM
 #3

a deal has been agreed. almost like saying "we need to divorce" but its not till december until we actually part ways. we still have to obide by their laws an current policies and trade agreements. thus no exit yet.
just a mutually agreed divorce

there is no big drama or concern from the UK prospective. the UK will thrive. the only drama for the EU is other countries may drop out. but then EU will try grabbing new countries to replace it.

but thats EU's problem
nah uk won't thrive, eu will take more and more power over time, there is a rule in europe:

if you are not in the EU or russian and in europe you are a racist a nazi or a hateful islamist/middle easterner/african/asian.

uk won't be able to live against that rule for long.

its basically europe insulting germany to be nazi for 100 years firering back to all other europeans

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February 02, 2020, 02:22:04 PM
 #4

The UK is officially no longer a member of the European Union, they have pulled out and have exited. Their mutual flags are no longer being displayed respectively.

It is much more than that a "we need to divorce" scenario, the divorce has happened. Until 31st December 2020 (which is when the transition period ends) the status quo continues, it serves the UK and EU purpose for allowing negotiations to go on therefore most EU regulations and laws continue to be applied including the free movement of people but I see that as a small price to pay while talks are on-going.

Most analysts see it almost impossible to have a free trade deal between the UK and EU tied up by 31st December 2020 and think an extension seems plausible but I doubt it. The fear of a n0-deal Brexit would hit the EU much harder than it would hit the UK and with them knowing they are dealing with a British PM that is taking a no-nonsense approach to exiting the EU then it would be better for all parties to expedite the process.


a deal has been agreed. almost like saying "we need to divorce" but its not till december until we actually part ways. we still have to obide by their laws an current policies and trade agreements. thus no exit yet.
just a mutually agreed divorce

there is no big drama or concern from the UK prospective. the UK will thrive. the only drama for the EU is other countries may drop out. but then EU will try grabbing new countries to replace it.

but thats EU's problem

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February 02, 2020, 02:50:44 PM
 #5

I def feel it will be a No-Deal Brexit for the time being but then they'll hv fresh negotiations by end of 2021. It wud help to kickstart a new deal without the baggage of the past.

Also, post-Brexit future depends alot on the leadership being provided, with the current one, no offence, but u r going to d dogs. But with a better leader at times such moves help too (eg. Singapore breaking away from the Malay federation)

P.S.
Also Can someone explain if it is reasonable for Spain to demand Gibraltar?
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February 02, 2020, 03:06:21 PM
 #6

I def feel it will be a No-Deal Brexit for the time being but then they'll hv fresh negotiations by end of 2021. It wud help to kickstart a new deal without the baggage of the past.

Also, post-Brexit future depends alot on the leadership being provided, with the current one, no offence, but u r going to d dogs. But with a better leader at times such moves help too (eg. Singapore breaking away from the Malay federation)

Leaving without a deal means uncertainty for trade and commerce (though WTO rules would kick-in) but the issues over airspace for commercial flights and movement of people (those UK citizens living in the EU and those EU citizens living in the UK)  as well as other issues. Better to leave with some sort of deal for both parties.



P.S.
Also Can someone explain if it is reasonable for Spain to demand Gibraltar?

No it is not unreasonable for Spain to demand Gibraltar by claiming Gibraltar belongs to Spain.

Equally, it is not unreasonable for the UK to demand Spain stop claiming Gibraltar because it is part of the British Overseas Territory.

A brief look at history will show you why both Spain and the UK claim Gibraltar as their own.

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February 02, 2020, 05:51:06 PM
Last edit: February 02, 2020, 06:01:31 PM by franky1
 #7

Most analysts see it almost impossible to have a free trade deal between the UK and EU tied up by 31st December 2020 and think an extension seems plausible but I doubt it. The fear of a n0-deal Brexit would hit the EU much harder than it would hit the UK and with them knowing they are dealing with a British PM that is taking a no-nonsense approach to exiting the EU then it would be better for all parties to expedite the process.

there will be a deal. just like there is a friggen deal with america, asica africa and other area's.
heck did you know that russia has iphones.. kfc, nike sneakers, mcdonalds.. yea russia and america trade and they meant to be enemies.

if you think the UK has to be in the EU to trade with countries .. then how come people can buy champagne, belgium chocolate and swiss  cheese in america. when america aint EU

the UK will trade with europe. no question.
the tarrifs wont be 500% .. they will be 5-12%.. no one cares for a 5-12% rate.
if you just go actually do research you will see that the details are done.. but if you listen to media propaganda you will hear apocalypse stories of how doomsday is happening.

sorry no doomsday.. its just media drama.

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February 02, 2020, 06:18:28 PM
 #8


~snip~

if you just go actually do research you will see that the details are done.. but if you listen to media propaganda you will hear apocalypse stories of how doomsday is happening.

sorry no doomsday.. its just media drama.

I agree. There were all sorts of lies and misinformation being spread about what would happen to the economy and what would happen to the queues of heavy goods vehicles at ports such as Folkestone and Dover with propaganda peddling merchants saying 10 mile long queues would be normal but the lowest of the low liars were the ones saying that medicine in pharmacies would run out within 1 month of a no-deal Brexit.

There is no doomsday for the UK, it will make trade-deals (free or otherwise) with major economies around the world and make a new path which will involve close co-operation with the EU on multiple fronts such as trade, security, intelligence and a lot more while being a proud sovereign independent country but for sure it is the end of the EU in its current manifestation. It might be the first time a members state has voted to leave but it will not be the last time it happens. If a far-right government comes in to power in France or Germany then leaves the EU with or without a referendum - the EU will have nothing left. The irony for them is the architects of the European project were the ones who will ultimately lead it to its demise because of lack of foresight on how to hold together a group of 27 different nations with different agenda with different cultures and societies.

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February 06, 2020, 05:59:56 PM
 #9

Leaving without an agreement can only mean that both sides have not yet decided what they want to get.The problem can be created for those who will make air flights (it is necessary to mark the air borders). I think they need to reach common compromises as soon as possible.
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February 06, 2020, 06:47:35 PM
 #10

uk doesnt deserve to use the EU flag, it needs a nazi swastika flag, since its all the time siding with nazis in europe

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February 06, 2020, 07:58:18 PM
 #11

I really try to say out of the political side of the forum, but since I just had to deal with it:

GB for the moment is shooting themselves in the foot by dragging this out. I just helped a client of a client begin to do some IT work for their move out of GB (some place just outside of London) to another city just outside of Paris (where they already had a small office). Why? Not because they gave a crap about Brexit one way or another. But they have been trying to figure out what the next move would be. Where / when / what kind of deal and the owner just finally got fed up and said. Screw it, we have to renew our lease and some other contracts in 90 days. Lets just move and not deal with it.

If he knew what was going to happen he would have been happy to stay. But, since nobody knows 100% what is going to happen it's easier just to pack and move. It's just office workers so there is nothing to move in terms of machinery.

-Dave

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February 06, 2020, 08:29:52 PM
 #12

I really try to say out of the political side of the forum, but since I just had to deal with it:

GB for the moment is shooting themselves in the foot by dragging this out. I just helped a client of a client begin to do some IT work for their move out of GB (some place just outside of London) to another city just outside of Paris (where they already had a small office). Why? Not because they gave a crap about Brexit one way or another. But they have been trying to figure out what the next move would be. Where / when / what kind of deal and the owner just finally got fed up and said. Screw it, we have to renew our lease and some other contracts in 90 days. Lets just move and not deal with it.

If he knew what was going to happen he would have been happy to stay. But, since nobody knows 100% what is going to happen it's easier just to pack and move. It's just office workers so there is nothing to move in terms of machinery.

-Dave

paris is also no good solution as france is fucked up with its nazi movment too,

this all ends up making germany richer and richer sind germany is pro free trade with hole europe and is always pro eu, many companies want to invest and move to germany.

once germany was a nazi in europe today germany is antinazi and everywhere in europe are nazis, including the stupid brexit brits. who cry after the nazi states the eu took sovereignty away.

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February 07, 2020, 03:00:40 AM
 #13

I really try to say out of the political side of the forum, but since I just had to deal with it:

GB for the moment is shooting themselves in the foot by dragging this out. I just helped a client of a client begin to do some IT work for their move out of GB (some place just outside of London) to another city just outside of Paris (where they already had a small office). Why? Not because they gave a crap about Brexit one way or another. But they have been trying to figure out what the next move would be. Where / when / what kind of deal and the owner just finally got fed up and said. Screw it, we have to renew our lease and some other contracts in 90 days. Lets just move and not deal with it.

If he knew what was going to happen he would have been happy to stay. But, since nobody knows 100% what is going to happen it's easier just to pack and move. It's just office workers so there is nothing to move in terms of machinery.

-Dave

Ouch. Just thinking about how expensive this is to have to do, this is probably brutal for a business owner and has been freaking him out for months now.

Just cause I'm curious, was the client also living outside of Paris or was the office just for workers or something along those lines? Cause moving from London to Paris (I know you said outside of Paris) is going to be rough if you double the amount of things to think about, as you're not only dealing with your business but with your home and family moving as well.

How expensive is such a move? All in all that is.




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February 07, 2020, 09:44:28 AM
 #14

I just helped a client of a client begin to do some IT work for their move out of GB (some place just outside of London) to another city just outside of Paris (where they already had a small office). Why? Not because they gave a crap about Brexit one way or another. But they have been trying to figure out what the next move would be.

What an insane thing to do - Why would you want to move away from the probably golden expansion of the CANZUK alliance, and move into the contracting, bankrupt EU with all it's trading limitations, and onerous restrictions and taxes.
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February 07, 2020, 10:57:55 AM
 #15

Leaving without an agreement can only mean that both sides have not yet decided what they want to get.
That does not make sense, could you elaborate please.


The problem can be created for those who will make air flights (it is necessary to mark the air borders). I think they need to reach common compromises as soon as possible.
Air travel will be just one of the many intricate and complex issues need resolving. This includes agriculture, fishing, trade (including VAT, customs, excise, import/export), banking, intelligence sharing and so much more.

I disagree with you, they do not have to reach compromises as soon as possible, the status quo suits all parties because they have until 31st December 2020 to reach a deal. Most analysts say an extension will be made for another 3 or 6 months after that date to finalise any outstanding issues.

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February 07, 2020, 12:43:14 PM
 #16

I really try to say out of the political side of the forum, but since I just had to deal with it:

GB for the moment is shooting themselves in the foot by dragging this out. I just helped a client of a client begin to do some IT work for their move out of GB (some place just outside of London) to another city just outside of Paris (where they already had a small office). Why? Not because they gave a crap about Brexit one way or another. But they have been trying to figure out what the next move would be. Where / when / what kind of deal and the owner just finally got fed up and said. Screw it, we have to renew our lease and some other contracts in 90 days. Lets just move and not deal with it.

If he knew what was going to happen he would have been happy to stay. But, since nobody knows 100% what is going to happen it's easier just to pack and move. It's just office workers so there is nothing to move in terms of machinery.

-Dave

Ouch. Just thinking about how expensive this is to have to do, this is probably brutal for a business owner and has been freaking him out for months now.

Just cause I'm curious, was the client also living outside of Paris or was the office just for workers or something along those lines? Cause moving from London to Paris (I know you said outside of Paris) is going to be rough if you double the amount of things to think about, as you're not only dealing with your business but with your home and family moving as well.

How expensive is such a move? All in all that is.

Since I was not directly involved with the owner and only had a few conversations with him (client of a client as I said) I don't know everything but:
He is single, no idea about an apartment / home / or anything in the UK has a small apartment in France.

He moved out of furnished office space for about 25 people and the place they moved into is for about 40 it is much bigger then he needs / wants but it was in the same building that his original people in France were in so they just let him change his lease to the new space.

For the move, costs on the tech side, not that much. It's 2020; his phone server is cloud based, he document server is cloud based, it's was more of pick up 25 PCs put them in boxes, ship, unbox and get back to work. (as soon as I had the bigger better VPN between my client and his new service setup).

Can't speak to the cost of moving workers. Don't know if he did or just hired new ones or what. Did not come up. Yeah, that makes me sound harsh but all I cared about was can the new place communicate with SonicWall here in the US.

Biggest freak out for him was the number of his clients around the world that basically said that if nothing is firm and in place by the time contract renewal with him comes up they were not going to renew with him or even discuss it, but use a different service elsewhere. So he avoided the issue by moving.

-Dave

Edit: and to all the people in the UK and France. I don't remember the names of the places he moved from / to. It was like they are moving to XYZ and I said "Where?" and the reply was "Oh, it's about 10 miles out of Paris"
 

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JollyGood
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March 05, 2020, 01:46:48 PM
 #17

Here are the new British Passports, it is another important step to take as they break away from the European Union and the European Union single identity.

In the image below the one on the left is the new passport and the one on the right is the older passport that was used before the red EU passport.





KingScorpio
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March 07, 2020, 02:26:29 PM
 #18

Here are the new British Passports, it is another important step to take as they break away from the European Union and the European Union single identity.

In the image below the one on the left is the new passport and the one on the right is the older passport that was used before the red EU passport.





#
jeah that passport is much weaker than the one you had before, and you know what, it is also not blue as promised but black

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March 07, 2020, 02:28:40 PM
 #19

I def feel it will be a No-Deal Brexit for the time being but then they'll hv fresh negotiations by end of 2021. It wud help to kickstart a new deal without the baggage of the past.

Also, post-Brexit future depends alot on the leadership being provided, with the current one, no offence, but u r going to d dogs. But with a better leader at times such moves help too (eg. Singapore breaking away from the Malay federation)

P.S.
Also Can someone explain if it is reasonable for Spain to demand Gibraltar?

it is not, if uk would have a friendly relationship with the EU, if uk has a hostile relationship

it is completely reasonable for spain to demand gibraltar, for the sake of european safety. and its own spanish safety.

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March 10, 2020, 04:52:08 PM
 #20

The goal of the UK is to be in the European Economic Area, just like Norway right now. The question is if both the British government and EU officials are looking for this solution.

From past statements of high-rank officials, it seems as if they wanted vengeance upon the Great Britain.

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