BTC Weekly & Monthly Update: Bulls On Parade, Majors Flying

[cryptoadvocate]

With the Bitcoin Weekly close in, it's clear the BTC Bulls are on parade and majors are flying left and right. However, the $9,600 weekly resistance still looms overhead, open interest is over $1B and market conditions are getting interesting worldwide. The safest bet is to wait for a close above or to long a pullback.

Full BTC and crypto market thoughts here:

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/btc-weekly-monthly-update-02-02-2020

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[hugeblack]

Yesterday, the price reached near the $ 9,600 barrier, but quickly returned to the levels of $ 9,200 and $ 9,400, which reinforced positive hopes for the possibility of an increase.
Despite this, there is not much optimism that causes of price to break the $ 10,000 barrier again, and this time it may continue above that barrier for several months, thus the possibility of obtaining $ 14,000 and more is possible, especially since we do not notice strong resistance levels above $ 10,000.

So I naturally think that we will settle at $ 9,200 for several weeks.

[justdimin]

That is the truth right there. We may not be able to break the resistance point that easily (even tho we push it further and further, it was around $9.4k just few weeks ago) we are at least not dropping as well. When you see the price trying to above the resistance level and fail, it is whole different to see it go down to support levels or going to somewhere very close.

If price paused $9.6k and failed and dropped to $8.6k or whatever levels, that would be superbly different from going down to $9.4k level.

Right now, we are living at the place where we are not backing down and we keep pushing and pushing and basically slowly carving up that resistance slow by slow without giving up, if we continue to do this, there is no way we are stopping anywhere soon, we will shoot up towards the next resistance right away.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Yesterday, the price reached near the $ 9,600 barrier

It did?  I had checked preev several times throughout the day (and probably more than that) and I don't remember it going that high.  Not that I don't believe you, because if it just spiked briefly I could certainly have missed it.

I don't think $9600 is any kind of barrier, however.  It's just a round number and doesn't have any special significance unless it's one of those "resistance levels" TA people talk about all the time--and I'm not going for that. 

The bulls might be warming up, but they're not yet on parade.  I'd say that once bitcoin breaks through $10k you'll start to hear the marching music and see the batons twirling.  Until then, it's anyone's guess as to whether bitcoin has entered into an upward trend--even though it's higher than it's been for months, it isn't high enough to be sure that we're not just seeing a lot of volatility.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

Speaking from a historic price perspective, bitcoin was always trading sideways just before the halving event took place and on the other hand before trading sideways they had a steady price rise over a year! This is what happening right now since the price is rising steadily and I don't see a massive dump or pump in the near future or past. Way back last year during this time (December-April), we were trading in the $3000-$5000 limit and it took over a year to settle in a stable price ($7000-$9000).

As of now, there isn't any news favoring the immediate price hike apart from the rise in the number of merchants accepting bitcoin payments in their store. I would rather use them as a currency instead on speculating or hodling them for a longer term. I would call this as an adoption and this is the one which will rise the price if being carried out on a wider extent.

Apart from this, the halving doesn't reduce the coins by many folds as it did during the previous halvings of 50 -> 25 coins or 25 -> 12.5 coins. There is quite less ratio of halving taking place and I believe this wouldn't have severe or sudden price hikes as it happened during the last bull run but rather will have gradual rise over a year or two. But, truly speaking the demand lies with the acceptance of coin on a wider level and if they are being accepted in wide variety of shops and many of the world population tend to trade bitcoin, we would reach new heights over the future.

[criza]

Year 2020 have just been started, and the price of Bitcoin have been more progressive at the start of the year. Compared to its price last year, it is more possible that the price of Bitcoin this year would hit bull run. Although it is currently struggling to maintain its price for about $9,000-$94,000, the probability that it would hit $10,000 this month is great.

[Wexnident]

I'm pretty sure instead of a continuous push, bulls would rather reinforce their place right now above $9k so that they have a better foundation at breaking through the $10k mark. If we do check out the current movement, BTC is more on finding a stable position, testing at $9.4k beforehand, and slowly going down.

Not only that, if we were to understand that more traders are seeing the price increase of BTC slowly, once it has shown the possibilities of breaking through $10k, more would probably enter the market, entering a rather unstable bull run.

Apart from this, the halving doesn't reduce the coins by many folds as it did during the previous halvings of 50 -> 25 coins or 25 -> 12.5 coins. There is quite less ratio of halving taking place and I believe this wouldn't have severe or sudden price hikes as it happened during the last bull run but rather will have gradual rise over a year or two. But, truly speaking the demand lies with the acceptance of coin on a wider level and if they are being accepted in wide variety of shops and many of the world population tend to trade bitcoin, we would reach new heights over the future.

Isn't it rather the same? Or might even be more extreme than the previous halvings. The ratio of decrease is a constant 50% every halving, meaning the effect would closely follow the effects of the past, based on a ratio to the results of halving to supply and results of halving to the market. That is if we compare it to the ratio of difference of BTC price between the two halvings.

[beerlover]

That is the truth right there. We may not be able to break the resistance point that easily (even tho we push it further and further, it was around $9.4k just few weeks ago) we are at least not dropping as well. When you see the price trying to above the resistance level and fail, it is whole different to see it go down to support levels or going to somewhere very close.

If price paused $9.6k and failed and dropped to $8.6k or whatever levels, that would be superbly different from going down to $9.4k level.

Right now, we are living at the place where we are not backing down and we keep pushing and pushing and basically slowly carving up that resistance slow by slow without giving up, if we continue to do this, there is no way we are stopping anywhere soon, we will shoot up towards the next resistance right away.

Yeah that is very true, keeping the price over $9k is worth to us more than getting a huge increase. This means that we are in a bull run and going up constantly and not stopping with the possibility of not knowing when it will fall, that is good if you are a holder but not good if you are a trader.

The other however (the situation we have now) means that price is actually taking good strides but also keeping the bottom higher and higher while price sometimes having corrections and stagnant moments and in between of those moments the increases that suggest we are still in the bull run of the year. I hope we will continue to increase like this and not go down or even go up insanely high because both of them would be very risky, going up slowly and making sure to stay up is a lot more valuable.

[1Referee]

Although it is currently struggling to maintain its price for about $9,000-$94,000, the probability that it would hit $10,000 this month is great.

As long as we maintain above the 200DMA and the 21DEMA, I'm pretty confident that we will get that push to $10,300 where we will face our next big resistance. If we close below aforementioned moving averages, I'll switch to bear-mode again and prepare for another sub $8000 push, and likely much further lower.

If this is the actual start of the next bull market, we need continuation of the current momentum. Failure will be punished hard because traders will try to front run each other by selling and prepare to buy the next bounce levels. I expect a reaction from the price before friday. I hope for bullish continuation, but I'm prepared of the other scenario as well.

[Jating]

Although it is currently struggling to maintain its price for about $9,000-$94,000, the probability that it would hit $10,000 this month is great.

As long as we maintain above the 200DMA and the 21DEMA, I'm pretty confident that we will get that push to $10,300 where we will face our next big resistance. If we close below aforementioned moving averages, I'll switch to bear-mode again and prepare for another sub $8000 push, and likely much further lower.

If this is the actual start of the next bull market, we need continuation of the current momentum. Failure will be punished hard because traders will try to front run each other by selling and prepare to buy the next bounce levels. I expect a reaction from the price before friday. I hope for bullish continuation, but I'm prepared of the other scenario as well.

I guess we don't have to wait till the end of this week, although the price stands above $9k, it seems that the bullish momentum has stop for now. From $9500-$9100, I seeing small drops in the coming days and we might be going <$9k or trade sideways with that.

I do hope that we don't go sub $8000, although it will be another opportunity to buy back again. But it could trigger another dump if we see the price go that low this week.

[Slow death]

The safest bet is to wait for a close above or to long a pullback.

I'm waiting to break  $9600 to trade again, in case I can't break the $9600 I will wait to see if it will fall below $9000 to see what I will do. It's been days that I became a spectator like I was watching a fight movie: bulls VS bears


the news channels are already talking about the apocalypse: https://cointelegraph.com/news/traders-eyeing-next-key-support-zone-if-bitcoin-price-goes-below-9k 

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

Isn't it rather the same? Or might even be more extreme than the previous halvings. The ratio of decrease is a constant 50% every halving, meaning the effect would closely follow the effects of the past, based on a ratio to the results of halving to supply and results of halving to the market. That is if we compare it to the ratio of difference of BTC price between the two halvings.

I don't believe we will be having the same effect of sudden price hikes as we had during the last halving run. Rather we will be seeing steady price hikes which will be favoring the stability of bitcoin in the market. Breaking up from the 50 mark to 25 is more or less really a bigger first event (considering the prices were $12-$15 per bitcoin). Each hour prior to November 28, 2012 we had a influx of $3500-$4000 into the market. After the 2012 halving event i.e after December 2012 to be clear, we had a influx of $18000 per hour into the market. Halving was new to miners and traders at that time and this can be considered as a way for pumping the prices.

Let us consider the same scenario in the 2016 event. Prior to the 2016 halving event, we had a influx of $75000-$90000 into the market (the prices considered here are $500-$600 per bitcoin at the generation rate of 6 blocks per hour and 25 bitcoins per block). After the July 9,2016 halving the same pattern followed but after the price hike we had a influx of $90000-$375000 (which was driven purely due to the hype and the shitcoin strategies).

Consider the scenario in this halving, we have a current influx of $750000 per hour into the market (at the rate of $10000 per bitcoin and 12.5 bitcoin per block). Even if we rise up to $20000 per bitcoin, the price would remain constant at $750000. The altcoins have completely died and I don't see any really promising alts which will be driving the prices up to sky high. We are very well aware we would be having a lower volatility as the year goes and would reach the stable prices at somewhere around 40-70 years from now when most of the bitcoins have been mined.

P.S Since the board is Speculation, these are completely my own speculative ideas and thoughts but well demand and popularity of bitcoin over the years after halving would provide an answer to these questions.