Will Bitcoin Correct to $6,500?

[exstasie]

To put it simply, this already happened, so less likely now than it was at $10K before when there were signs pointing to this amount of downside.
Now there is not the same signs pointing to $6.5K, maybe $7-8K, but just like $3.2K, I think $6.5K is unlikely to occur again.

I would say anything below the $7,600s area (the 61.8% fib of the uptrend + daily pivot zone) is unlikely at this point. There's a good chance the market won't even fall below the 200-day MA. It's hard to deny the bullishness on the weekly and monthly time frames.

Seeing $6.5K again would suggest distribution was occurring over the past couple months. That would be pretty bearish. I wouldn't expect $6.5K to hold. The next stop would probably be the 200-week MA, currently ~$5,300.

[mindrust]

Even if it happens it will happen for a very very short time. You'll probably miss it because it will either happen when you are sleeping or when you don't have any money on the exchange. (unless you have a buy order sitting already)

$6.5k happened not so long ago and it is barely visible on the daily chart. Whales literally attacked that fcking dip. I don't think it is coming back.

$7.5k would be a more realistic target.

[Wind_FURY]

Even if it happens it will happen for a very very short time. You'll probably miss it because it will either happen when you are sleeping or when you don't have any money on the exchange. (unless you have a buy order sitting already)

$6.5k happened not so long ago and it is barely visible on the daily chart. Whales literally attacked that fcking dip. I don't think it is coming back.

$7.5k would be a more realistic target.

"Correction" might also be $9,500 - $10,500, you should give some thought that the current rally is not ending yet.

Hashing power all-time high, the halving, and the return of the bulls will possibly take Bitcoin near $20,000 in my opinion. 50% correction will crash to $10,000.

[dragonvslinux]

To put it simply, this already happened, so less likely now than it was at $10K before when there were signs pointing to this amount of downside.
Now there is not the same signs pointing to $6.5K, maybe $7-8K, but just like $3.2K, I think $6.5K is unlikely to occur again.

I would say anything below the $7,600s area (the 61.8% fib of the uptrend + daily pivot zone) is unlikely at this point. There's a good chance the market won't even fall below the 200-day MA. It's hard to deny the bullishness on the weekly and monthly time frames.

It's starting to worry me how I much I'm in agreement with you at the moment, I preferred it when you saw things differently to provide me with a different perspective
From a pattern perspective this also makes sense, by coming down to the 61.8 this would also look like a marco-sized reverse head & shoulders bullish pattern.

Seeing $6.5K again would suggest distribution was occurring over the past couple months. That would be pretty bearish. I wouldn't expect $6.5K to hold. The next stop would probably be the 200-week MA, currently ~$5,300.

Interesting perspective that I hadn't considered re distribution if we fell to $6.5K. While I find it unlikely, I would expect this level to hold strong again, if we get rejected at current levels that is. If we make this macro higher high above $10K level to say $11-12K, then would agree that dropping to $6.5K would be very bearish.

Reasoning being is by topping out and creating marco horizontal resistance, woud increcase the chances of creating macro horizontal support at $6.5K, as least in my mind. We saw these parallel channels after sell-offs in 2012 (shorter time-frame) as well as 2015 (for nearly a year), so although this doesn't need to happen, the chances of a parallel channel (accumulation at lows) would be more likely than continued downside in my opinion, given current market structure at least..

All theoretical obviously, looks like we're going to break through $10K anyway so much of this analysis won't be relevant 

[coolcoinz]

To put it simply, this already happened, so less likely now than it was at $10K before when there were signs pointing to this amount of downside.
Now there is not the same signs pointing to $6.5K, maybe $7-8K, but just like $3.2K, I think $6.5K is unlikely to occur again.

That's true. There was a huge bearish pressure from people who wanted to get quick gains after buying at 6 and 7k but once we go past 9k all of this is gone. Most traders who bought in the early stages of this bull run, back when we all thought that it's just another correction in the long bearish trend (like the run to 12k in August) have already taken profit and went back in, or simply left the market to enjoy the profit and wait for either another correction or a confirmation of the bull market that we may be witnessing right now.

[jhonjhon]

There is a possibility it will go down to $6500 especially after halving because of some corrections so if you are afraid to lose if the happens then you are free to sell now and get profits but please know that bitcoin price has a potential bull price that may range from $10,000-$15,000 so might as well leave a portion of you bitcoin for the possible bull run.

[exstasie]

Seeing $6.5K again would suggest distribution was occurring over the past couple months. That would be pretty bearish. I wouldn't expect $6.5K to hold. The next stop would probably be the 200-week MA, currently ~$5,300.

Interesting perspective that I hadn't considered re distribution if we fell to $6.5K. While I find it unlikely, I would expect this level to hold strong again, if we get rejected at current levels that is.

I guess what I'm getting at is this: Going back to the $6Ks would (at best) represent a situation like August 2015, where a downside rejection could spring us into a new bull market. At worst, the support wouldn't hold at all.

My expectations are more bullish that that. Q1-early Q2 2016 would be a closer parallel to what I'm anticipating. Dropping to the $6Ks again would really throw that picture into question.

If we make this macro higher high above $10K level to say $11-12K, then would agree that dropping to $6.5K would be very bearish.

Yeah, that would be particularly bearish.

[TopT3ns]

There is a possibility it will go down to $6500 especially after halving because of some corrections so if you are afraid to lose if the happens then you are free to sell now and get profits but please know that bitcoin price has a potential bull price that may range from $10,000-$15,000 so might as well leave a portion of you bitcoin for the possible bull run.

well maybe it could happen like that but I think for this year it's hard to get back to low prices again because there will be a halving day that will make bitcoin prices expensive because it will be harder to get bitcoin and more difficult to get bitcoin, if conditions occur like this then at least have to be able to prepare bitcoin with a very large number to be able to enjoy profit when halving occurs.

[thecodebear]

No, because it already did that. It's not just gonna go back to the price is already tested. If there's a correction it'll be higher than that. Just like in late 2019 it didn't go back to 3000s, it went to 6500. 6500 was testing following a long term (6 month) downtrend, that price is gone now.

[aioc]

I've been in-between moving back to USDT and hodling my Bitcoin in the hopes it may reach the psychological price of $10,000. But this voice in my head that just won't go away says, a heavy dump to $6,500 is on the way. I just hate to get my hopes up high and then dashed again.


Any thoughts?

Are you wishing that to happen or are you wishing the opposite, it's ok to have fear for a dump but when the bull run is happening right before your very eyes it's time to support and, the market is dynamic and very volatile so if you are investing only invest what you can afford to lose or always prepare for the eventualities.

[kesmex]

No, because it already did that. It's not just gonna go back to the price is already tested. If there's a correction it'll be higher than that. Just like in late 2019 it didn't go back to 3000s, it went to 6500. 6500 was testing following a long term (6 month) downtrend, that price is gone now.

did it really disappear? obviously we don't know yet, because if the price of Bitcoin shows a bearish trend, I am very worried that all support will be passed, which is the most frightening, hope Strong support is at $ 7,500

[andamarina]

No not at all, but it might stay more time under 10k who know but to drop so low no.

[Oceat]

No, because it already did that. It's not just gonna go back to the price is already tested. If there's a correction it'll be higher than that. Just like in late 2019 it didn't go back to 3000s, it went to 6500. 6500 was testing following a long term (6 month) downtrend, that price is gone now.

did it really disappear? obviously we don't know yet, because if the price of Bitcoin shows a bearish trend, I am very worried that all support will be passed, which is the most frightening, hope Strong support is at $ 7,500

That's the possible correction price I see that would hit if ever the price of Bitcoin would start to drop back again. But today I don't see Bitcoin will be dropping back so soon, so why not push your limits a little bit so we can see where does Bitcoin price would stop. Perhaps after breaking the $10,000 resistance it might start to drop slowly back to the $7k or something.

[exstasie]

No, because it already did that. It's not just gonna go back to the price is already tested.

Devil's advocate: Go back to 2015. The market tested the $220 area twice (in April and June) before running into the $300s to form a structural higher high. Then it unexpectedly crashed to $200 before recovering and then truly entering a bull market.

So going back to retest the bottom is possible. Is it likely? Maybe not.

My experience is the "we need one more test of the bottom" crowd usually misses out on big moves because they always wait for a perfect entry that rarely comes.

[olumyd]

If you're not sure what's going to happen, then the right move would probably to hedge your bets. Can't decide between USDT and BTC? Then probably put 50% on each instead. Even if we're a few months away from the halving, prices are still not guaranteed to rise so act accordingly.

Good advice.

As for 6000-6500  happening.

Well  

415 dec-2015
447 jan-2016
379 feb-2016............................ feb-2020 about 95-100 days before  ½ ing
419-mar-2016
421-apr-2016 95-100 days before  2016  ½ ing
452-may-2016
577-june-2016

647-jul-2016

587 8/11/2016
605
640
714
767
785  jan-2017
1008 feb-2017


we look okay based on past preformance.

Not sure that the past  ½ is the same as this one so hedging is okay.

Good reference, only if derivative contracts were available back then, it would have been easier to have that fundamental play in the price action. Now, there are too many factors, interest parties and rapid blockchain intake, it may beat previous expectations. But no one truly knows for sure.

[Desscount]

do not know yet, whether to go to $ 6500 or not, all depends on the situation of the market now, if there is bad news then the bullish trend will end, always use risk management

[bearexin]

Right now bitcoin is not at the correction stage, not yet anyway. Right now we are trying again to break over $10k and we try that multiple times in the recent weeks and we will continue to do so for a long time as well. The reality is the fact that we can't just let go of the gas pedal for now because we are too deep into this bull run and it can't end when it is not even going anywhere proper just yet.

We reached from $7k levels to $10k levels and that is amazing, that is not bad at all, however in the history of bitcoin increases that is something doable, we literally went from $3.5k to $13.8k last year on a bull run, that was a proper bull run, this is more like a good hype. So, we need to reach to levels like $14k or more in order to start going down again.

[Japinat]

do not know yet, whether to go to $ 6500 or not, all depends on the situation of the market now, if there is bad news then the bullish trend will end, always use risk management

bad news and good news are always present in the market, the effect depends on the gravity of the news, if the good news is bigger then the bull run will continue. Don't underestimate the crypto market as it has survive a lot of bad news and reach this good price, one of the big bad news in the past was "china banning bitcoin" IIRC , and there was a FUD but eventually bitcoin recover, rise and make a new ATH.

[tbterryboy]

do not know yet, whether to go to $ 6500 or not, all depends on the situation of the market now, if there is bad news then the bullish trend will end, always use risk management

I guess I need to correct you here. If there is bad/negative news than bullish bearish trend would continue. The markets would not completely depend on the news as there already are thousands of news platforms which are actively sharing negative as well as positive news so the media has itself balanced itself.

Now, everything which we could depend upon is the price correction. The current resistant has been crossed but bitcoins continued downgrading after testing the resistant which might predict us that there would be some initial price dump which might be a point to buy coins. Of course, if would not be such excess as OP stated as there is strong support at various levels like 9500, 9000, etc which would never make the price break to 6500.

[sana54210]

$6500 would be a massive dump. By no chance I think bitcoins would go such down to below $7000. The maximum dump I can expect is $8500 and then again bitcoins would start rising. There would be a dump before we could test another resistance. Testing the resistance is not getting much difficult for bitcoins as already we saw bitcoins crossing 10k.

The current charts might be showing a initial dump but it might not be permanent. The price would start growing once bitcoins experience a dump and maybe the graph would continue going in the ascending direction until ATH peak is reached. There are huge expectations from bitcoins this year and let's not ruin them all.