Coronavirus & quarantine & effect on BTC Difficulty. How Bad/Likely? Poll!

[Searing]

Coronavirus & quarantine & effect on BTC Difficulty. How Bad/Likely?

Indeed, IF, I think it is 65% of ASIC miners are out of China and IF this Coronavirus Quarantine drags....indeed even past halving...

I'd guess that difficulty would stay flat for that time period? If this is not the case then my view is that any workers that could be

gathered under such a scenario, would be used to MAYBE build units (5nm maybe Q1 as stated by Innsilicon and Bitmain) thus if we

do see a rise in BTC difficulty, I'd pretty much count on the main ASIC makers feathering their own nest first by filling data halls on a

flat difficulty universe and consumers are just damned and SHOL.


https://www.coindesk.com/how-the-long-tail-of-the-coronavirus-might-slow-bitcoins-hash-power-growth

Anyway, my own view is this coronavirus mild or otherwise will last as long as the typical 'flu season' which would be well into May 2020.

So, my guess is flat difficulty at best and at worse the China ASIC makers taking full advantage of limited workers to fill their own data halls with

equipment first with this flat difficulty for a few months. Or it could be worse, they could do the above with NEW 5nm equipment 'supposedly' due in Q1 2020!

Your views?

Take the Poll.

Brad

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[Searing]

Update on 2/6/2020 on the China Coronavirus here are the links below:

Below is a post I credit to Paashaas Profile: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=169384

here on Bitcointalk. Here is a link to Paashass's post. I suggest you read his post-in-depth with the chart of course.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53787712#msg53787712

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6



Scary Stuff!

Brad

[pixie85]

I think that it will have no effect. The virus is more of a scare than a real threat for the country.
You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

There were only a little over 500 deaths worldwide out of which almost all were in China. There will not be an lack of workforce as the Virus kills weak and old people, usually recovering from another form of illness, just like other types of flu used to do.


If you have some immunity problems, like you have AIDS and you get a normal flu you have hgh probability of dying but nobody will make a big deal out of it if it really happens. Now if this is a new mutated flu everything changes. Now you're part of a completely new statistical group.

[bgaf]

As what you mentioned work force will be halt and reduced and most workload will be taken only by huge group of miners that will likely result into increase of difficulty. Imagine how many miners came from China and if we cut their time for this due to the virus then of course what will happened next? Price of bitcoin is increasing on a very shady way which should be affected by this reduction of miners.

There were only a little over 500 deaths worldwide out of which almost all were in China. There will not be an lack of workforce as the Virus kills weak and old people, usually recovering from another form of illness, just like other types of flu used to do.

Little deaths but how about those under quarantine? I assume they arent quaranteed on their own home or own storage for the mining activity which they are doing. Or if Chinese did then how long do you think this will end if they just tolerating shit. Much better to fix this problem first then go back to a normal routine when its done.

[Artemis3]

I think that it will have no effect. The virus is more of a scare than a real threat for the country.
You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

There were only a little over 500 deaths worldwide out of which almost all were in China. There will not be an lack of workforce as the Virus kills weak and old people, usually recovering from another form of illness, just like other types of flu used to do.


If you have some immunity problems, like you have AIDS and you get a normal flu you have hgh probability of dying but nobody will make a big deal out of it if it really happens. Now if this is a new mutated flu everything changes. Now you're part of a completely new statistical group.

I don't think this person was weak or old, 34 year old DOCTOR from the very Wuhan hospital, who ended becoming a patient Jan 30 and now is dead.

There really is a threat, it appears to have been contained so far, but its no common flu like you say, its serious. It does propagate like the flu, which means worryingly easy.

That said i don't think this will affect Bitcoin much, if at all. Mining operators in China, live in the farm itself, they don't really need to be going out much. I suppose it might disrupt asic production, but that's another matter. If anything, it will slowdown somewhat the diff increase as they won't be expanding or upgrading miners for a month or so until people can go back to normal and the quarantine is lifted up.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Thank you for that link--I was wondering if there was a website that kept track of deaths due to this outbreak, and apparently there is.  It's showing 638 deaths right now, which is really small in the grand scheme of things.  I'm not exactly sure how many people die of the flu each year, but I'd imagine it's comparable.  And if you compare deaths from coronavirus to deaths from auto accidents or overdoses, then it pales by comparison.

And I don't think any viral outbreak is going to produce so much as a blip on the radar of bitcoin's price, its miners, or anything else associated with it unless it was so severe that it was killing millions of people in China, and even then I'd bet the miners would lock themselves in their mining warehouses with a year's supply of hand sanitizer and plenty of barrier masks.  In other words, it's not going to be much of a problem.

It also looks like more than twice as many people have recovered from coronavirus than have died (though that does suggest it is pretty deadly).

[AniviaBtc]

I think that it will have no effect. The virus is more of a scare than a real threat for the country.
You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

There were only a little over 500 deaths worldwide out of which almost all were in China. There will not be an lack of workforce as the Virus kills weak and old people, usually recovering from another form of illness, just like other types of flu used to do.


If you have some immunity problems, like you have AIDS and you get a normal flu you have hgh probability of dying but nobody will make a big deal out of it if it really happens. Now if this is a new mutated flu everything changes. Now you're part of a completely new statistical group.

I don't think this person was weak or old, 34 year old DOCTOR from the very Wuhan hospital, who ended becoming a patient Jan 30 and now is dead.

There really is a threat, it appears to have been contained so far, but its no common flu like you say, its serious. It does propagate like the flu, which means worryingly easy.

That said i don't think this will affect Bitcoin much, if at all. Mining operators in China, live in the farm itself, they don't really need to be going out much. I suppose it might disrupt asic production, but that's another matter. If anything, it will slowdown somewhat the diff increase as they won't be expanding or upgrading miners for a month or so until people can go back to normal and the quarantine is lifted up.

It is very difficult to be productive in work when there is a hindrance like a virus outbreak. It is not safe to go out in China because of fast spreading of the virus that can lead to hundreds of deaths. In some aspects it really take part on country's economy affected by this. It is very hard for the bitcoin to move although it is digital, some people tend to be sick because a lot of population in China can't work outside. People should make their immune system stronger and healthier so that they can somehow resist the virus by their own body. If they get sick, they can easily overcome it and be cured. Hoping that corona virus doesn't become worst in a certain period of time and I hope that they find a cure for it.

[pooya87]

i still don't see any kind of relationship whatsoever. Cronavirus is not the Plague! even if it were a lot more serious that it currently is, bitcoin hashrare nor its price would have been affected by it. besides miners aren't at the heart of populated cities, they are usually outside of city, even in heights like in the mountains,... (so secluded) and they don't really need that much constant maintenance from workers. on top of that majority of hashrate is not even in China and it has been growing elsewhere so whatever happens in China can't really affect hashrate growth in other countries.

[Kakmakr]

A lot has been made of the Coronavirus, but the reality is that it is highly contagious, but not that lethal compared to other viruses. I think some article mentioned that it only has a 2% death rate of the 1000s of people that was infected. Yes, it is still very scary and even with a 2% death rate, people will still worry about this.

The other thing is that most businesses in China are still functioning as normal, but people are using protective measures to protect themselves against the virus. <Wearing masks & constantly washing hands etc.>

The most affected areas are under quarantine and if most of the ASIC chips were manufactured there, it would have a bigger impact on the hash rate in the future. <Less ASIC miners = slower increase in the difficulty> 

[michellee]

Actually, I don't have any idea about the Coronavirus & quarantine & effect on BTC Difficulty because that is a different thing. The bitcoin difficulty depends on the miners who mine bitcoin using their hardware, and it's not connected to the virus itself. If the people who mining bitcoin are infected with the virus, their device still running by itself and it still mining bitcoin. The process of the mining will still run unless people in China shut down all of their equipment so that it can impact the bitcoin difficulty.

But if finally, the Coronavirus give an impact to the economy of China, and people in China cannot use their fiat, then maybe there is an impact on the bitcoin price. But I guess that will not give an effect in a short time because the Chinese government will find out the other way before they decide to use bitcoin.

[franky1]

1,000,000,000 population
0,000,000,X00 deaths
not 10%.. no 1% not 0.1% not 0.01%

sorry but with the 0.00005% (of which most are kids and pensioners.
i dont see a problem

the january lull is not unusual.
it happens every year its called the chinese new year.

miners run on electric. not human muscle. electronics do not catch the corona virus so there is no quarantine for average people

as for humans. at airports there is just a person with a thermometer at check in
westerners in china are still getting on planes and coming home to the west.

will people stop trying to cause stupid speculation to affect the market price
if you want to make money.. buy paper facemasks for pennies and sell them to dumb people for 10x

[Searing]

Yep, wondering this myself. Why the huge crackdown? Perhaps it is because afraid the virus will mutate? Just because China can crack down massively to kill it sooner?

https://www.naturalnews.com/2020-02-06-if-coronavirus-no-big-deal-why-china-cracking-down.html

But as relates to Bitmain and Innsilicon and Data Halls in China, kicking out units to themselves and/or eventually consumers in/out of China.

This is starting to look like it will drag out well into April. IMHO.

Brad

[pixie85]

I don't think this person was weak or old, 34 year old DOCTOR from the very Wuhan hospital, who ended becoming a patient Jan 30 and now is dead.

There really is a threat, it appears to have been contained so far, but its no common flu like you say, its serious. It does propagate like the flu, which means worryingly easy.

That said i don't think this will affect Bitcoin much, if at all. Mining operators in China, live in the farm itself, they don't really need to be going out much. I suppose it might disrupt asic production, but that's another matter. If anything, it will slowdown somewhat the diff increase as they won't be expanding or upgrading miners for a month or so until people can go back to normal and the quarantine is lifted up.

Ok so every once in a while this virus kills a young person. Doesn't this happen with normal flu as well? How many people around the world get pneumonia and die?
Coronavirus is bad, but it shouldn't be a factor to cause mass hysteria. There are billions of Chinese, only thousands of them contracted Corona Virus, out of those thosands only a few hundred died.

According to that site that I posted earlier in Australia there were 15 cases, 5 already recovered and nobody died. You really can fight this thing and it is life threatening but so is smallpox, rabies and soon. 

[hatshepsut93]

Mining farms don't have that many employees, so they wouldn't be affected by some restrictions that might be installed by the Chinese government. Also, I remember watching a documentary about miners and it showed how the works basically live on the site - I don't know if its the case for many/all farms, but still it's a possibility, and with the bullish market the owners can offer a good pay to make their workers stay inside for days and weeks.

[dothebeats]

Aren't mining farms on China manned by a few people on remote areas? Usually mountainsides? If that's the case then the threat of infection would be low. The virus per se cannot survive without a host in ~12 hrs, is not airborne and can only be passed through human-human transmission. Given the conditions of the mining farms being isolated and far from civilization for the most part, there's a slim chance that workers would contract the disease, and I'm pretty sure they are now avoiding the hotspots of infection, particularly areas surrounding Wuhan. So general opinion here: mining and business as usual.

As for the virus itself, countries are finding a cure now and it's just a matter of time before everyone is cured and the virus itself is quarantined.

I don't think this person was weak or old, 34 year old DOCTOR from the very Wuhan hospital, who ended becoming a patient Jan 30 and now is dead.

The human body is a fascinating vessel. We might not know whether the person suffered from fatigue (which helps accelerate the effects of the virus) and/or other unknown complications--or may have been left unchecked. It is not lethal, but highly contagious for sure. Majority of the people who died from the virus have pre-existing medical conditions, are children with underdeveloped immune system and the elderlies with a weaker immune system. For healthy human beings, they have a chance to get out of the said sickness.

There really is a threat, it appears to have been contained so far, but its no common flu like you say, its serious. It does propagate like the flu, which means worryingly easy.

There was, prior to the recreation of the virus in lab conditions. It has an R0>2.5 which is way higher than SARS and MERS-CoV, though its symptoms and effects to the body isn't lethal and isn't developing faster into deadlier complications.

Perhaps this is nature's way of telling people to not eat everything that moves.

[Searing]

Well, this big miner got caught in the wheels and according to the article has to shut down operations. The only big one I've heard about

in this bind, so far that I know of.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-crypto-mine-stop-or-stall-operations-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak

[Sadlife]

I think the mining industry in china will not be affected because most of their mining facilities are automated and only few people work their that's is isolated from city's. The virus only works if you get in contact with people and doesn't have safety mask and weak immune system.

The same goes for the ASIC manufacturers most of it are all machine there with little needed of manpower.

[franky1]

in this bind, so far that I know of.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-crypto-mine-stop-or-stall-operations-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak

MEDIA quote btctop having to shut down...

.. hashrate statistics still show btctop doing 4exahash for last 3 days....
assessment: media less believable than blockchain hashrate stats
summary: btctop still operating

..
by the way.
if china was on a lockdown and quarantine. latest images would not see people walking around but would show a 'ghost town' imagery. .. i see people in latest pics.
assessment: people still free to move around
assessment: western media need to do more research

.. and big big deal information..
LEARN THE DATES OF CHINESE NEW YEAR
people are on vacation in some places.

also..
if you want to have an explanation of all the facemask pics..
i can pick any year in the last decade and find china facemask pics.
just google image:    china <year> smog
yep chinese wear facemasks all the time anyway

..
as for the whole network hashrate
december. lowest hashrate in the 80's exa
january. lowest hashrate in the 90's exa
february. lowest hashrate in the 100's exa

.. all i see is growth.. not shutdowns.

[bryant.coleman]

Well, this big miner got caught in the wheels and according to the article has to shut down operations. The only big one I've heard about

in this bind, so far that I know of.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-crypto-mine-stop-or-stall-operations-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak

I would never trust Coin Telegraph, because they have a long history of publishing fake news. This particular news item didn't appeared in any other Bitcoin related media. So I assume that it is unconfirmed. Most of the Bitcoin mining farms in China are located in remote provinces such as New Mongolia Autonomous Region, which have remained largely free of the virus till now. Also, the lockdown is affecting the major urban areas and not the rural districts where the vast majority of the mega farms are located.

[davis196]

I'm not an expert,but AFAIK,even if all the miners located in China stop working,this will decrease mining difficulty and the rest of the miners around the world will successfully handle all the BTC transactions.The blockchain is decentralized,if sertain parts of the system have to shutdown,the rest of the system will carry on.
That's why we aren't dependent of the Chinese miners.