Coronavirus & quarantine & effect on BTC Difficulty. How Bad/Likely? Poll!

[pooya87]

Well, this big miner got caught in the wheels and according to the article has to shut down operations. The only big one I've heard about
in this bind, so far that I know of.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-crypto-mine-stop-or-stall-operations-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak

there has been lots of nonstop efforts in the media to spread FUD about bitcoin and cause panic to push the price down. that is why you keep seeing these articles that make no sense at all since there is zero facts in any of them.
hashrate is pretty stable and hasn't had any major changes in it. not to mention that the Chinese miners are still reporting the same hashrate as before!

[1714969397]

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[gerica0613]

Nothing will change, it's too big of a country to really be THAT affected by flu. Even if a couple of facilities are shut down, there're tons of miners all over the world to take on the load

[Wind_FURY]

in this bind, so far that I know of.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/chinese-crypto-mine-stop-or-stall-operations-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak

MEDIA quote btctop having to shut down...

.. hashrate statistics still show btctop doing 4exahash for last 3 days....
assessment: media less believable than blockchain hashrate stats
summary: btctop still operating

..
by the way.
if china was on a lockdown and quarantine. latest images would not see people walking around but would show a 'ghost town' imagery. .. i see people in latest pics.
assessment: people still free to move around
assessment: western media need to do more research

.. and big big deal information..
LEARN THE DATES OF CHINESE NEW YEAR
people are on vacation in some places.

also..
if you want to have an explanation of all the facemask pics..
i can pick any year in the last decade and find china facemask pics.
just google image:    china <year> smog
yep chinese wear facemasks all the time anyway

..
as for the whole network hashrate
december. lowest hashrate in the 80's exa
january. lowest hashrate in the 90's exa
february. lowest hashrate in the 100's exa

.. all i see is growth.. not shutdowns.

Plus if indeed btctop, or another large mining pool/farm shut down, difficulty will fall, profitability will go up, other miners will take over.

It incentivizes decentralization in my opinion.

[fiulpro]

Only 5 major cities are being locked down , the doctors are already investing the vaccines and it does take time for it to be in the market even after the invention , right now I do think it could take anywhere between 6 months to 1 year , and governments are already battling to stop this infestation .
I do believe that it is not affecting the normal life in any way since you know even after the lockdown people do have things available and it's not affecting the whole China just a part ..
Yes most miners are in China and people do import the mining software from there but you know you can see the price..
It's already going up and the Corona virus is still spreading.
Thus I don't see any direct links ..

[Galanis]

My friend flew from China two days ago and it looks like reality and the information that the media shows are different. There are empty streets and no people anywhere. Flights are canceled. It sounds like a disaster.. but everything will work out I'm hope.

[Artemis3]

Ok so every once in a while this virus kills a young person. Doesn't this happen with normal flu as well? How many people around the world get pneumonia and die?
Coronavirus is bad, but it shouldn't be a factor to cause mass hysteria. There are billions of Chinese, only thousands of them contracted Corona Virus, out of those thosands only a few hundred died.

According to that site that I posted earlier in Australia there were 15 cases, 5 already recovered and nobody died. You really can fight this thing and it is life threatening but so is smallpox, rabies and soon.  

You picked a bad one here. Smallpox. That thing was "destroyed", and written off from the world. Decades ago many countries stopped applying the vaccine for this and without the vaccine it is quite deadly, but since its not supposed to exist, it shouldn't be a problem...

Unless someone lied and kept a live specimen as bio weapon, but since the vaccine remains it shouldn't be a problem in theory (except for the first infected), should an outbreak somehow occurred again.

Of course there are far worse out there that could be used as bio weapon, some without any cure or vaccine.

Mass hysteria does nothing good even in the worst scenario, and the procedure remains pretty much the same anyway: Quarantine, isolate, treat the infected best you can, wait until it dies out. My only fear is if that virus escapes into poor "3rd world" countries, it will spread like wildfire.

[Searing]

Just as an aside.

BTC was at a high this month on 2/13/20 of $10,425.85 USD.

15 days BTC was at the current price (just looked) of $8,740.45 USD.

This is a 16.16% dump in price in those 15 days for Bitcoin, as best as I can determine.

The Dow Jones was on 2/13/20 a price of $29,290.85 USD.

Again, 15 days Down Jones was today at $25,409.36 USD.

This is a 13.25% dump in price in those 13 days for Dow Jones, as best as I can determine.

Gold was $1,575.74 on 2/13/20. Gold was $1,585.78 on 2/28/20.

So far stocks and BTC are pretty much neck and neck and gold was pretty much flat in price.

We will see, I find it interesting we are in this groove with stock losses.

Anyway, for your consideration of the possible correlation of the Coronavirus situation.

Brad

[Kakmakr]

I think a lot of people are making way too much of this whole Coronavirus thing. There are even people buying less Corona Beer now and the company are saying that they are losing millions in sales, because people stopped buying that brand of beer.  

The ASIC manufacturing plants are almost fully automated, so they hardly have any employees working in these factories and those workers are wearing protective clothing for dust in any way. They will increase the price, because the virus is a good excuse for them to pump the price.  

Silicon valley must get their act together and start competing with the Chinese manufacturers of ASIC technology.  

[Ailurophile]

I also vote for no effect at all .
I don't see a reason for the miners to stop even for this corona virus outbreak.
I think this is also the perfect time for them to mine since they are already locked down so it is their way to earn money.

[bitbunnny]

As usual people are spreading panic with no reason. Corona virus is nothing more but just another version of flu. Also, it doesn't affect the price of Bitcoin in any way although some are trying to use that histeria about virus as a reason for Bitcoin price fall. So.don't believe everything you read in media and be rational.and current Bitcoin price is a result of corrections that happen all the time in the volatility cycle.

[Searing]

The below are my thoughts on WHY is it that BTC is not acting like a store of value ...like we figured...

in hindsight...being easy to move and everyone needing to fill up their likely or never had emergency funds

it is the 'quickest' method for quick cash worldwide on a 'cashout'

my other ramblings below on this view (guess/idea/lunacy?)

Interesting..you have a crisis...a potential 'pandemic'

thus BTC is used as a store of value in countries where such things would be much worse..you can't trust your government

or your banks are corrupt or whatever, like say Venezuela.

So now you have your crisis, the one that states 'bitcoin will be a store of value' but what you find is..don't want to take $$$ out

of the bank (or hard or like Venezuela you have no cash in banks)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So of all the assets, you have set aside like, gold/silver and US currency and Bitcoin

which is the 'easiest to move' in a country like Venezuela for quick emergency cash?

You could make the same argument for the USA..do I really want to call my broker to move $$$ out? Or wait for long-term on such?

Say you are cash poor and 'iffy' on your finances if this goes on for a bit, as a result of a potential layoff or whatever or coronavirus fears...due to slowdown and stoppage of parts in China?

But damn, I can dump BTC to 'refund' my (ashamed because empty) "emergency/catastrophe fund' in case any/all of above come to pass.

Take this logic worldwide on the status of the current economic issues of all these worldwide and peoples likely reaction to such and it seems to humble a BTC/Crypto HODL'er indeed!

So we have the 'twin' fun times of when the stock market crashes on fears of something like this ...discretionary $$$ move out of BTC/Crypto and we dump too.

But like today, when the stock market pumps, BTC/Crypto also dumps as much or more.

Great thing BTC as a store of value for trying times...until the trying times come...damn this is harsh...

HODL I guess, but I'm also as 'cash strapped' as all the idiots above if this continues, so sh*t, this cluster could go on awhile if my 'dubious' above views are kinda correct. Sad

The only hope is this resolves itself and stabilizes and Bitcoin recoups as a store of value and being just temporary shakeup/crash in BTC/Crypto. Indeed I hope so!

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So sh*t on a stick, I hope this is the end of such and at least BTC/Crypto acts like Gold say and goes, again, at least, 'sideways' in price vs further 'likely' dumps

in the stock market, etc

Chump or Champ or Pump or Dump or Boom or Doom

we will be the first to know!

Brad

[Searing]

This is also true of any crisis..imagine you are trying to prepare your likely 'emergency fund' which also likely is empty....in say Venezuela

Any of that current currency, if you have such, is probably getting even more worthless due to last week's dump of stocks/BTC/etc. So you can

dig out your hidden emergency gold and/or stocks or take out a loan (all doubtful) or you can liquidate that Bitcoin you've been accumulating

that you were and are buying food, in say Paraguay or some such, because they never will again take Venezuelan currency.

But with this handy/dandy BTC/crypto with the ability to get USD out of such back from BTC and into say USD into your phone, you now can stock up for coronavirus.

This is happening with everyone around the world due to the instant and easy liquidation of BTC/Crypto for such pandemics we may be in the process of having.

So, BTC as plan-B for emergencies this should NOT be a surprise. Was to me, just saying, it should not have been. This easy liquidation is a feature of BTC, the same

as accumulation is.

So we will see how this pans out if/when the stock market continues to fall and other things happen....currencies get manipulated around the world and IMHO

BTC  price will swing back to upward and accumulation will resume and such BTC for the same ease of use above and BTC's decentralized nature.

But this time as a store of value, for these further games by governments and the next round or two of emergencies with this crisis. Again, IMHO. This liquidation

as a phase of BTC/crypto sales and price, dumping is just the 1st act of this whole coronavirus, again IMHO. Boom or Doom, we will be the first to know!

later

Brad

[pooya87]

The below are my thoughts on WHY is it that BTC is not acting like a store of value

store of value by definition is something "that retains purchasing power into the future". it has nothing to do with how easy or hard it is to move it. in fact fiat is considered a "store of value".
from wikipedia:

The most common store of value in modern times has been money, currency, or a commodity like a precious metal or financial capital.

and it is more of a long term thing rather than short term and daily fluctuations. with that definition bitcoin doesn't exactly fit in as store of value because its value "shoots" up in long term rather than retaining the same purchasing power and having small rises! but also it could be considered a store of value because it doesn't lose value.

[slashz9]

unfortunately it does not really affect the crypto, when the virus was announced I think there is no significant effect on it, stable market conditions and there is no drastic increase / decrease after the news circulates, where if there is news that really gives effect to the crypto market will make ups and downs that are not reasonable.
that does not mean I expect this outbreak to make a market increase because of the paralysis of some Chinese industries due to this disease.
but it doesn't seem to have an effect, and we expect this outbreak to end soon.

[carter34]

Nothing will change, it's too big of a country to really be THAT affected by flu. Even if a couple of facilities are shut down, there're tons of miners all over the world to take on the load

You can't say that and just feel indifferent about the corona virus. This has become a global health challenge just as WHO has declared it. Therefore, it is not only affecting China but many other countries have been recorded to have cases of corona virus even in some African country(ies) too. So, talking about miners, it is likely going to affect the system of mining since transmission isn't selected.

[Saint-loup]

I'm not an expert,but AFAIK,even if all the miners located in China stop working,this will decrease mining difficulty and the rest of the miners around the world will successfully handle all the BTC transactions.The blockchain is decentralized,if sertain parts of the system have to shutdown,the rest of the system will carry on.
That's why we aren't dependent of the Chinese miners.

The halving is in 2 months now, so we should see a rise in the hashrate and the difficulty. But except today we haven't see that. The difficulty and the hashrate haven't increased at all in february, they have been totally flat.   It means there is a real impact from the coronavirus, and the close of mining facilities in China.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
https://www.blockchain.com/fr/charts/difficulty?timespan=60days

[Searing]

I'm not an expert,but AFAIK,even if all the miners located in China stop working,this will decrease mining difficulty and the rest of the miners around the world will successfully handle all the BTC transactions.The blockchain is decentralized,if sertain parts of the system have to shutdown,the rest of the system will carry on.
That's why we aren't dependent of the Chinese miners.

The halving is in 2 months now, so we should see a rise in the hashrate and the difficulty. But except today we haven't see that. The difficulty and the hashrate haven't increased at all in february, they have been totally flat.   It means there is a real impact from the coronavirus, and the close of mining facilities in China.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
https://www.blockchain.com/fr/charts/difficulty?timespan=60days

that is my fear...is BTC/crypto simply a 'speculative asset. like stocks that are good in good times but really bad in bad times? In other words, the $$$ that goes into BTC/crypto as a

a speculative asset is not determined by the whole 'store of value' argument..but more like cash, in bad times the first thing to get spent to fill up the old emergency fund before you liquidate

you other more cumbersome assets like stocks and gold etc? That would be bad, very, very bad for me and my HODL BTC/crypto position indeed.

I really was not a big fan of today (Monday 3/2/20) and stocks go up big and BTC/crypto follows...we will see i guess.

[FanatMonet]

I'm not an expert,but AFAIK,even if all the miners located in China stop working,this will decrease mining difficulty and the rest of the miners around the world will successfully handle all the BTC transactions.The blockchain is decentralized,if sertain parts of the system have to shutdown,the rest of the system will carry on.
That's why we aren't dependent of the Chinese miners.

The halving is in 2 months now, so we should see a rise in the hashrate and the difficulty. But except today we haven't see that. The difficulty and the hashrate haven't increased at all in february, they have been totally flat.   It means there is a real impact from the coronavirus, and the close of mining facilities in China.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
https://www.blockchain.com/fr/charts/difficulty?timespan=60days

Of course, the influence from the coronavirus will be visible on various indicators, but I think it's too early to talk about some huge risks associated with its spread. It will be necessary to sound the alarm if a drop in network hashrate begins.

[gundala]

I think that it will have no effect. The virus is more of a scare than a real threat for the country.
You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Thank you for this very useful link. I suggest all of you to see this, and stop worrying too much because more people are recovering than dying from cofid 19. Hyperbole media reporting often causes panic, may worry but must be based on knowledge. Don't forget to monitor information from the official health account in your country, follow the instructions, keep it clean, wash your hands before touching areas on the face and glands, etc.

I don't think this has a direct impact on the movement of cryptocurrency. Although the trend tends to go down, there is no significant movement, do not then relate it to this outbreak, there could be other factors. Stop speculating which tends to cause anxiety.

[Searing]

I think that it will have no effect. The virus is more of a scare than a real threat for the country.
You can check statistics here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Thank you for this very useful link. I suggest all of you to see this, and stop worrying too much because more people are recovering than dying from cofid 19. Hyperbole media reporting often causes panic, may worry but must be based on knowledge. Don't forget to monitor information from the official health account in your country, follow the instructions, keep it clean, wash your hands before touching areas on the face and glands, etc.

I don't think this has a direct impact on the movement of cryptocurrency. Although the trend tends to go down, there is no significant movement, do not then relate it to this outbreak, there could be other factors. Stop speculating which tends to cause anxiety.

So according to this link, there are 7.8 billion people on the Earth, more or less, for math use. https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

I heard PBS Radio Today...that this virus could have up. to 1.5% infection rate. Even if this epidemic is milder as we hope. The 1918 pandemic

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article with a death rate of greater than 2.5% BUT over 40% of the world's population was infected.

An expert on PBS radio today, who wrote a book on the 1918 pandemic, https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/03/03/john-barry-on-pandemics says that

he had 'friends that model such stuff' and project a 40% to 60% infection rate worldwide. Thus with 7.8 billion people on the Earth x say 40% infection rate and

a 1.5% infection rate would be worldwide deaths at that 40% infection rate of 3,120,000 deaths worldwide if my Math is correct.

It would be much, much worse after supplies run out and also in developing countries so you could double that. Also, supposedly a much higher risk if over 50 years old.

To be blunt, there would be more deaths from the 'shutdown' of trade and essential services that the pandemic, IMHO. Commerce even for say, worse case, for 3 weeks

would just stop in an attempt for this pandemic to burn itself out.

Anyway, I'm retired, I may just sometime in the future have the lifestyle of a live a home hermit, if it gets that bad, for others who can't afford to NOT, go to work, over the

age of 50 ..main breadwinners..it could be devastating indeed and yet another risk in your life.

As to how this all applies to BTC? Well, it could be BTC will not act as a store of value under a pandemic. You can 'liquidate' BTC instantly with your phone to refill

your emergency fund in say, Venezuela. There will be countries that will close banks and other dubious actions to keep control. So BTC may indeed be the 'great'

emergency fund but NOT a store of value and drop the same as every other speculative asset out there like stocks...just because only thing out there to buy stuff in

especially dubious 3rd world countries when things may become all 'unglued'

Anyway, we will just have to wait and see how this plays out I guess.

Brad