Tone Vays Stands by $4K Bitcoin Price Pre-Halving Prediction

[djcaoile1205]

Bitcoin blasted through the $10K barrier once again this Sunday. But while the majority of analysts are hanging out the flags hailing the next Bitcoin bull run, prominent BTC trader and analyst Tone Vays stands by his bearish prediction. https://bitcoinist.com/tone-vays-defends-bearish-btc/

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[andamarina]

I don't think will fall so down, maybe it will go to 9k and after will go up again after halving.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Man, that would suck if bitcoin dropped to anywhere in the $4k range this year, either before or after the halving.  But despite this guy's prediction (which is crazy bearish in a market that seems to be bullish), I don't think it's going to happen. 

True, bitcoin did drop back below $10k in the past day but that was probably people taking their profits off the table, which is to be expected.  To drop 50% would take some seriously pessimistic views on bitcoin on the part of a lot of investors, and I don't see that becoming the case this year.  It certainly doesn't seem to be the mood of the market right now.

This seems to be one of those public prognostications which are made to keep someone's name in the news.  Whoever Tone Vays is, he might really believe bitcoin is going down to $4k, but if that's the case I think he's a bit delusional.

[exstasie]

As always, Tone Vays is too bearish. He's a classic perma-bear.

He was bearish all the way up in 2017. Called the top at $7,500 and clung to it. This is another one of those times. I wonder how long he'll wait before finally flipping bullish. Probably not until the June 2019 high is broken.

I'm glad to see so many prominent bears in our midst. Tone Vays, Masterluc, Peter Brandt......all seem to be in denial about how bullish the market is.

[$crypto$]

After touching the price of $ 10k maybe a lot of people are selling and they want to profit from now so that the decline is happening right now, but it won't be a big bearish because in my opinion it's only a correction and most falls to $ 9500 then the song will grow above $ 11k.
I am sure at times like this many people will buy and analyze bitcoin movements.

[pooya87]

someone calling for $4k is not "being bearish" it is being stupid. a 60% market crash is not just going to happen out of nowhere when the market is already on the rise in a bull run. something terrible has to happen in order to be able to change the trend in the exact opposite direction and push the price down this low.
expecting $4k right now is like expecting $50k in early 2018 when price was falling from $20k, and is just as stupid.

[STT]

Dropping back from over 10k recently is only a movement within a positive channel.    A sell like that is a positive but 4k would be to represent some failure.
   Tone Vays doesn't have to be incorrect but the scenario he is talking about is remote and in such a short period of time, I wonder why he would bother outlining something not likely to happen and people will just think he is wrong.    The only thing is if he believes the odds are very much higher then we consider and I dont get the information he is trying to convey, wheres this hidden rush of supply to unbalance the price down to 4k
  Not that interested in him being wrong or right absolutely but Im missing the point of why he'd say that especially.   4k is on the map, it can happen but why he stated this path when we likely just stay on the road and drive right past as theres no way its probable without some transformation or event.    Lots of news can and will be bigger then halvening, people are overstating it so thats as far as I can agree with him.

[malevolent]

someone calling for $4k is not "being bearish" it is being stupid. a 60% market crash is not just going to happen out of nowhere when the market is already on the rise in a bull run. something terrible has to happen in order to be able to change the trend in the exact opposite direction and push the price down this low.
expecting $4k right now is like expecting $50k in early 2018 when price was falling from $20k, and is just as stupid.

We've seen two bigger price crashes last year, one ~48%, another one ~38%, and no terrible event preceded them. Depending on how one looks at things, we still haven't left the bear market, although the outlook is much more positive now than two months ago.

[buwaytress]

@Pharmacist on the other hand, 4k means 2
5x more bitcoin for any income compared to what we'd get today...for another few months before the next "true" parabola.

I always thought this Vays guy (just a guess from how often his name crops up in a good way) was a bull but maybe he's like some of us. Long term bull, short term cynic. Better the pain now than later I say.

[Juggy777]

Man, that would suck if bitcoin dropped to anywhere in the $4k range this year, either before or after the halving.  But despite this guy's prediction (which is crazy bearish in a market that seems to be bullish), I don't think it's going to happen. 

True, bitcoin did drop back below $10k in the past day but that was probably people taking their profits off the table, which is to be expected.  To drop 50% would take some seriously pessimistic views on bitcoin on the part of a lot of investors, and I don't see that becoming the case this year.  It certainly doesn't seem to be the mood of the market right now.

This seems to be one of those public prognostications which are made to keep someone's name in the news.  Whoever Tone Vays is, he might really believe bitcoin is going down to $4k, but if that's the case I think he's a bit delusional.

@The Pharmacist this guy is like the shepherd who kept shouting wolf is coming (when there was no wolf) just to be in the limelight, and he’s not done it for the first time as a quick google search about him will reveal that he’s given different bearish statements hoping to get it right. There’s in fact a tweet also which says that whenever he predicts something the opposite of that only happens, hence I’m sure his predictions won’t come true and we should not bother about him or his predictions.

Sources:

https://bitcoinist.com/tone-vays-defends-bearish-btc/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/tone-vays-bitcoin-must-hold-9k-for-2-3-days-to-secure-bull-market
https://bitcoinist.com/tone-vays-bitcoin-btc-wont-dip-to-usd-3000-again/
The wolf reference: http://www.eastoftheweb.com/short-stories/UBooks/BoyCri.shtml

[LFC_Bitcoin]

He’s probably got an agenda, maybe he wants to load up with a load of cheap coins or he’s managing a group of big players who desire a big price drop to load up with cheap coins pre halving.

It’s well known what happens to the price post halving so I can see why somebody or somebody working with rich people might desire one more big dip to buy cheap coins.

Nothing to see here, it’s an overly pessimistic prediction which probably won’t happen.

[Slow death]

the bitcoin price dropped a lot and it didn't take long to see the usual:

Why a Crazy Profitable Bitcoin Whale is Warning of a Brutal Crash

pessimistic news is spreading rapidly. If the price goes up we will see very positive news.

[Kemarit]

Again, this is Tone Vays, if we have a perma bull like Tom Lee, then this is his counterpart. And just for the sake of argument, Bitcoin hits $4000, so what we are going to do? of course, we won't just dump and be emotional. I guess we will hear again, weak has will be shaken.

And we have to understand that this so called experts have their bad/good intentions behind. So I wouldn't be surprised to hear it from Tone Vays, perhaps he is a perma bull, but might be secretly buying in dips.

[gentlemand]

Wasn't he one of those 1k 'hyperwave' fans?

At least he has the courtesy to give a short term guess pulled out of his arse so we don't have to wait very long for it to go nowhere again.

[InvoKing]

someone calling for $4k is not "being bearish" it is being stupid. a 60% market crash is not just going to happen out of nowhere when the market is already on the rise in a bull run. something terrible has to happen in order to be able to change the trend in the exact opposite direction and push the price down this low.
expecting $4k right now is like expecting $50k in early 2018 when price was falling from $20k, and is just as stupid.

A drop of the bitcoin price will happens likely after each rise, kind of correction but $4k! It is huge.
I expect something between $7-8k for a short time.

[justdimin]

I could sort of understand a notion that bitcoin one day may become 4k, however predicting it to go under 10k and reach to 4k before the halving which is in may is a bit off from all other predictions and even possibilities. I am not the one to say bitcoin will always go up and will never go under 10k ever again, I realize there are possibilities where bitcoin could always fall, however thinking that bitcoin will never be too successful or will never go up from here until the may halving period is a bit wrong in my mind.

Maybe he is right and we are all wrong, we will never know until that day comes but I can wager money on the fact that bitcoin will be over 4k before halving and will stay that way for a year or so as well. After which I can understand maybe it may one day fall.

[Yatsan]

3 months before the halving, so I'd say around 2 more months before his prediction to be confirmed whether it is true or not? Still, really though, who would believe the guy? That's a 60% drop for a span of only 70+ days. Unless the market suddenly went haywire and went down literally everyday by huge portions, there's close to 0 chance that BTC would drop to $4k in a few months. This isn't like the bubble of 2017, no it isn't. There's no bubble here, there's no correction to be made here, there's only BTC growing and rising.

Honestly, predictions like this just look like they are screaming, asking for attention. It's pretty difficult to ignore though, since he is quite known by some and predictions like this are well, quite entertaining to see with whatever reasoning they make to defend their stand.

[Stedsm]

I don't see a bear sign anywhere as one of the most awaited triangles have been broken on both daily and weekly charts. This Tone vays who predicts $4k as the bottom needs to look some people's predictions who are deeply invested in this technology - Tom Lee gave a big statement that BTC will surpass Dow Jones and reach $40k before Dow does. I believe such statement itself counters these bears who are interested in making money shorting BTC. $8600 is the worst I'm seeing here and folks, don't worry about the bears, we're already in a big bull rally - this time it's gonna be extreme. There's one more fact that for BTC mining to remain profitable, we need at least $15k on the table in order to achieve better returns through mining.

[TheAndy500]

Bitcoin blasted through the $10K barrier once again this Sunday. But while the majority of analysts are hanging out the flags hailing the next Bitcoin bull run, prominent BTC trader and analyst Tone Vays stands by his bearish prediction. https://bitcoinist.com/tone-vays-defends-bearish-btc/

I also think the situation will happen again and the bull run will not start until a few months after halving. I think that todays market optimism is too early. In the past, bull run always came a few months after halving, so whales still have a lot of time to make a big price dump. Of course, I hope that this will not happen, but in my opinion it is very likely and I fully agree with Tone Vays.

[mahilchii]

I don't think he might be correct because 4k is far behind low before halving right now we can clearly see a bullish trend and it's moving on, I cannot see any signs of bearish trend also I went through few articles and did some research on it where I saw it will maintain from 8k - 9k before halving. This is something unacceptable.