Bitcoin needs to be in a bull market before the halving

[Bossian]

Just remember that folks.

The Bitcoin market was bullish before the two previous halvings (hence no clear correlation in my humble opinion). But if you believe there is a correlation then it's important to consider other indicators, and not the halving alone.

When you check the history of Bitcoin price, you will notice there was a clear bullish trend before the two halvings occurred.

I am in the minority here but I doubt this year will be bullish, the trend is still bearish, it has been bearish since we were rejected below 14k last summer.

Watch out for March-April, if they are still bearish months, there is no way IMO the price will skyrocket this year. The important prices here are 10.5k (very strong resistance) and 14k. Before we break these prices again there will be no uptrend.

I am not your financial adviser. Just my opinion  

[jackg]

Yeah there's a high chance we've either maxxed out already for the year I'd you look at the last two halvings. It's probably good from this point for the rest of the year if we remain at $10k and don't fall further after there's no rally post run (some of retail may be expecting that)..

I think in 2016, we moved to about $500 in the early months of the year and then just stayed there for quite a while during and after the halving...

[dentolas]

I agree with your points... and besides, everyone is expecting that the price goes to the moon and usually this means that the price will not go our way... most people are counting with a bull run this year, and this may not happen at all... prices are not showing momentum and the bear is still here...
I was hopping to cross the 10.5k barrier this month, but that does not seem to be happening...

[Free1bitco.in]

I might not pay attention to that because my goal is to hold bitcoin until halving is finished. If there is a bear market in March-April, it will be an opportunity for those who want to invest more. however, I am a person who believes that before halving, the price of bitcoin will rise. at the moment the price of bitcoin may go down, but at the beginning of March, I'm pretty sure the price will recover and return to exceed the price of $ 10,000.

[pooya87]

I am in the minority here but I doubt this year will be bullish, the trend is still bearish, it has been bearish since we were rejected below 14k last summer.

i don't really see it that way, the trend still looks pretty bullish to me. and if you look at the bigger picture i'm sure you can see it too.
the trend begins from December 2018 when the accumulation starts at $3200 and price stays down and stable with a high volume for a couple of months. then we officially enter the bull market that slowly brings the price up then there are some sudden jumps that lead to a mini-bubble that needs to pop and be corrected. that is the $13880 in June and then we had the correction of that. but a correction doesn't mean "bear market" a correction is a sign of a healthy bull market instead.

[exstasie]

Just remember that folks.

The Bitcoin market was bullish before the two previous halvings (hence no clear correlation in my humble opinion). But if you believe there is a correlation then it's important to consider other indicators, and not the halving alone.

When you check the history of Bitcoin price, you will notice there was a clear bullish trend before the two halvings occurred.

It's 3 months away. Compared to last time, we're ~ April 2016. Why do you think BTC was in a bull market then, but not now? Did you miss the 350% rally last year? And now we're re-approaching those highs.

If it looks like a duck....

I am in the minority here but I doubt this year will be bullish, the trend is still bearish, it has been bearish since we were rejected below 14k last summer.

If you're in the minority, it's a very big minority and bull/bear sentiment is mixed. I'm seeing plenty of bear analysis in my circles and the Fear & Greed index is "fearful" at 41: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

[El duderino_]

Exstasie.... bossian is just a troll-ish guy, thinking BTC will come out only in 2024 or something.....

He has some kind of TA that only a meth addict would show in the open ...

[$crypto$]

I am in the minority here but I doubt this year will be bullish, the trend is still bearish, it has been bearish since we were rejected below 14k last summer.

i don't really see it that way, the trend still looks pretty bullish to me. and if you look at the bigger picture i'm sure you can see it too.
the trend begins from December 2018 when the accumulation starts at $3200 and price stays down and stable with a high volume for a couple of months. then we officially enter the bull market that slowly brings the price up then there are some sudden jumps that lead to a mini-bubble that needs to pop and be corrected. that is the $13880 in June and then we had the correction of that. but a correction doesn't mean "bear market" a correction is a sign of a healthy bull market instead.

Means that the market is currently in a correction where a few weeks before it has experienced continuous pumping or bullish now, in correction what is possible this will continue because the current downward trend is high enough to be honest I am quite worried that bitcoin will not return to $ 10,000 again.
If panic like this continues then there is no good but there will only be doubt to be sold at cheap prices even though this is the right correction to buy at a lower price.

[Questat]

Bitcoin is still bullish, but today it seems like it's slowly going down and it might hit $8K+ soon.
The 24 hours low per Binance is 9040, that's very close to going down to $8K.

let's see if the price will bounce back, but I still believe its gonna be bullish before the halving, price should be higher than $10K IMO.

[el kaka22]

The trend is still bearish? What are you looking at? Are you sure you are talking about bitcoin? We started the year at $7k price and now we are at $9k, just because we moved from $10k to $9k doesn't negate the whole fact that we moved from $7k to this place, we are certainly not in a bearish sentiment at all.

Check the forums if you want, you will see there are a lot more messages and topics about how bitcoin will be $20k+ then topics about bearish drops in numbers. Think whatever you want to think about the price of bitcoin in the future, that is something we can't predict correctly because we can't see the future, but when you start to talk about the past we have the data and charts about the past in order to say what really happened or didn't happen and there was definitely no bearish and there is currently no bearish sentiment in the markets.

[bassbity]

The trend is still bearish? What are you looking at? Are you sure you are talking about bitcoin? We started the year at $7k price and now we are at $9k, just because we moved from $10k to $9k doesn't negate the whole fact that we moved from $7k to this place, we are certainly not in a bearish sentiment at all.

I think the crypto market is currently bearish where the whole bull has been exhausted because a few months ago the increase continued to increase in bitcoin and other altcoins, now there has been a severe decline, meaning that the bearish has occurred where we have to read situations like this even I predict bitcoin could fall again to $ 8,000 in the near future is this another factor or just a trend?

If it's like this then bitcoin will have more difficulty touching $ 10,000 because I see that the movement is slow enough for this year to rise.

[bitbunnny]

I might not pay attention to that because my goal is to hold bitcoin until halving is finished. If there is a bear market in March-April, it will be an opportunity for those who want to invest more. however, I am a person who believes that before halving, the price of bitcoin will rise. at the moment the price of bitcoin may go down, but at the beginning of March, I'm pretty sure the price will recover and return to exceed the price of $ 10,000.

Many have similar expectations but the question is if this is really going to happen. Many expected bull run right at the begininig of this year, many think we will having bull run before or immediately after the halving but at the end none of these doesn't need to happen.
I don't have big expectations from halving and I don't think we'll have a true bull run this year, to my opinion Bitcoin price will stay in moderate range.

[fortunecrypto]

Just remember that folks.

The Bitcoin market was bullish before the two previous halvings (hence no clear correlation in my humble opinion). But if you believe there is a correlation then it's important to consider other indicators, and not the halving alone.

When you check the history of Bitcoin price, you will notice there was a clear bullish trend before the two halvings occurred.

I am in the minority here but I doubt this year will be bullish, the trend is still bearish, it has been bearish since we were rejected below 14k last summer.

Watch out for March-April, if they are still bearish months, there is no way IMO the price will skyrocket this year. The important prices here are 10.5k (very strong resistance) and 14k. Before we break these prices again there will be no uptrend.

I am not your financial adviser. Just my opinion  

I'm glad you admit it's just your opinion and of course everyone is entitle to his opinion but not to a fact, it's to early to tell if we are going to be bullish before halving happens we'll know if it will start next month March, if there is going to be a bull before halving, it should happen on the month of March which is a few days from now.

[bittraffic]

It happens so its going to be another hell of fud over in the forum. This bearish move seem very manipulated really, if people bought and hold at $10K they'd really feel miserable already.  I'm glad I have used all my BTC after it hit $10k I have no plans of buying even if people say its the bottom or will hit to $3k again.

I'd just be here going to watch the market whichever the price may go and see if the altcoins I hold are going to make some upturn in the future.

[kolonel_x]

It happens so its going to be another hell of fud over in the forum. This bearish move seem very manipulated really, if people bought and hold at $10K they'd really feel miserable already.  I'm glad I have used all my BTC after it hit $10k I have no plans of buying even if people say its the bottom or will hit to $3k again.

I'd just be here going to watch the market whichever the price may go and see if the altcoins I hold are going to make some upturn in the future.

At a time like this, don't hold on for a long time, especially if you continue to monitor its development, we buy bitcoin and then target it to sell, so don't sell it in the future because it will be difficult at the time of the market, as it will surely be frustrating to see the current short-term decline is a good thing.
Keeping an eye on the market is the most important and also looking at the information that is happening now so that it knows what is the cause and not manipulation.

[fabiorem]

I agree with the OP. We are still in a bear market, albeit it looks like a secondary (ie, transitional) bear market.

For me the signal of a bull market would be the price staying above 12k for six weeks, or at least a month. This didn't happen since the bear market started in 2017. So far, this bear market is way bigger than the one of 2014-2015.

As for the halving, its pure hopium, like it was futures and BAKKT before. The StF ratio was already busted due to its curve being manipulated from 2020 to 2021, so we cant use the four-year cycle as a basis anymore.

[STT]

Not sure I'd label it a bear market, BTC always sells off in a substantial way just like it rises beyond any normal expectations also.    It has lost the uptrend that was there for many weeks, so we're off that ladder and down we go and it just so happens we have bad news in the headlines and thats taken as the reason but it was on the cards anyway.     Right now its best just to look where it can land firmly, get a good standing again and rise.
   200 day moving average is around here but thats just an indicator not support as such though so many look at it so it can behave as such for some time.    Generally we will some process and develop in time and we'll rise again no need to doubt it especially.    However I will put myself down as expecting 2021 to be far more in potential then 2020.
    I just couple 2020 to 2019 and it'll be revising and retreading prices to cheers and sobs at various times, after that churn we rise very likely.

[kentrolla]

You Just have to hold till halving and I have made intention to hold my asset also you don't have to worry about the bull, we are still in bullish movement and no need to panic on that. Yes there might be some corrections happening like before but it doesn't mean we are going down, this is not a indicator for the downfall stay cool.

If you still feel you are in bearish market Just try investing more in BTC because like you know the price will automatically increase as demand will be there while halving.

[exstasie]

I agree with the OP. We are still in a bear market, albeit it looks like a secondary (ie, transitional) bear market.

For me the signal of a bull market would be the price staying above 12k for six weeks, or at least a month. This didn't happen since the bear market started in 2017. So far, this bear market is way bigger than the one of 2014-2015.

What is the significance of $12K? It's ~ the 50% retracement of the 2018 bear market. Let's compare that to the post-2013 market. The 50% retracement there was ~ $650. The market didn't spend 6 weeks above that level again until December 2016 or so.

It sounds like you would have waited until the 2017 bubble began before calling it a bull market. We know in hindsight though that 2015-2016 was a consistently uptrending bull market. The same thing may be happening now. The bull market may have begun in the $3,000s.

The StF ratio was already busted due to its curve being manipulated from 2020 to 2021, so we cant use the four-year cycle as a basis anymore.

Not sure what you are referring to. Could you explain?

[batang_bitcoin]

Do you think that when bitcoin rejected the $14,000 we're already back to bearish? Lucky are those who have seen bitcoin at the bottom of $3,000 and still managed to hold during that time. Wherever this continuous dip is bringing us, it doesn't matter because all was set and planned to be a long term holder and the factor of halving is where everyone is expecting to see a huge gains. It doesn't have to be bullish before the halving, compare the past halvings, the market didn't go like that.