Personal Opinion: Only a matter of time until Bitcoin will surprise us again

[20kevin20]

We've had the Iran vs USA situation. We've been through the 2008 recession, but that's when Bitcoin was only starting to grow up. We've been through hacks, exploits, scams, hard times our governments have given us and all but today we're still here. Bitcoin - it is still here today. We're growing up like never before together with the Blockchain technology.

This comes with advantages and disadvantages. The only disadvantages I can think of are the way Blockchain will be used at one point against our own freedom. But now, let's talk a bit about the situation we're confronting at the moment. This is not about politics, conspiracy theories or anything else but the way Bitcoin is going to behave during and after the situation we're confronting today.

We're in the middle of the Coronavirus hysteria. Is it as much of a threat and should we be that scared about it? Both "yes" and "no" come with enough proof, so at this point we just do not know what to believe and what not to. However, for one moment, let's put all this virus part aside and talk about the hysteria it provoked all around the world.

At this point, as soon as the virus gets closer to a country, hysteria begins. It's enough to hear that one person has been affected in the country for everyone to go wild. Is this normal? I can assure you it is not. Instead of calming down, everyone is acting as if the apocalypse is here.

We've seen a pretty drastic.. let's name it "crash" in the cryptocurrency markets in the past few days. Have you wondered what has caused this to happen? I have, and the conclusion I've reached is that the markets were not only unprepared for this hysteria but we also have no idea if Bitcoin is going to be a safe haven during these times or not. Mainsteam media is provoking panic all over the Internet and a lot of people fear this virus is a real and very serious threat, so they are looking for information that denies the worst scenario to calm themselves down - I believe this is some psychological effect. Because Bitcoin has never been in this situation before (it has, but when only few knew about it), this is the moment we find out if people have woken up and found out Bitcoin is the key solution to the problem or not. Or in other words, we will just now find out whether the market is starting to reach maturity or not.

Because of the panic, people do not understand what we've just put ourselves into. The enormous amount of money poured into the economy and the immense amount of money people are spending on literally anything and using the virus as an excuse is scary and has irreversible consequences over the global economy. We're most likely going to see a huge upcoming inflation and more debt and this hysteria will eventually end up moving us from the virus threat into a huge recession so smoothly we won't even notice it.

I've posted here about the upcoming recession before. I'm not sure if I've mentioned it before on the forum, but I always say it when talking to somebody: it's not a matter of "if" it happens; it's a matter of when it will. The clock is now ticking fast, China is entering big economical issues so is Europe. I can clearly see around me that people are starting to enter a panic mode caused by the urgent necessity of cash. Unfortunately, this led to people selling their assets and investments in order to get cash for emergency purposes. And one of the investments people first think of selling is Bitcoin. Why? "It's virtual, you cannot use it physically and you cannot buy stuff with it". Let me tell you what - Bitcoin is one of the few existing assets that go against the inflation. You'll never hear the President of China say "we're creating and pouring $174B worth of Bitcoin into circulation". Even precious metals can change their scarcity negatively at any point in the event of a huge mine discovery. In comparison, we will never find more than exactly 21M BTC.

All of this means that Bitcoin will most likely always thrive in any negative scenario. Governments can confiscate your precious metals, but they cannot confiscate your Bitcoin as you can simply bury a piece of paper wallet inside a bottle under the ground and no detector will ever find it. Governments can make your fiat money worth ~$0 with only an announcement, but people will always be willing to pay a decent price for a scarce asset. Governments can warn you the banknotes may be infected with some bacteria, but Bitcoin existing only in a digital form will never come with this danger. Banks may close and seize your funds as if they were never yours, but Bitcoin is only stored and controlled by you and you can give anyone some BTC without a third party asking where that came from and why. Someone might give you an oz of gold and you'll have to trust the gold isn't fake, but you cannot receive a fake satoshi. Get it now? Bitcoin is simply a safety during hard times.

Therefore, the price crash in this market should, in my opinion, not scare you away. People need cash. In my country, I have seen packs of 5 pieces of surgical marks sold at around $100. People are willing to pay that much just for their own safety and health. Hence, they will sell anything they have to get fiat and that includes Bitcoin. Actually, because BTC has never been through such hysteric moments before, it will probably be the first thought of many when it comes to the "what should I sell first?" question. I strongly believe this crash will stay here for a bit (or maybe a bit longer) and then a huge surprise will come.

My personal opinion is we should not panic or panic-sell. If you're in a huge need of cash, commodities should probably be somewhere on the second half, towards the end, of the list of stuff you're thinking to sell. Time will prove whether I'm right or not though, and I wish I could give the best advice ever during these times but I am not willing to take responsibility for anyone's assets, wealth or life. Therefore, this post serves as a summary of the accumulated thoughts I've been having in the recent days.. any critique is more than welcome, so feel free to contradict me

[Kemarit]

Of course why would someone in panic mode and sell their stash because of the corona virus scare? Everything will settle down in the next couple of days. And just be checking the price today, crypto markets are in a positive, although the rest of the traditional markets are still red.

So I'm not panicking, I will just sit it out and let those who panic push the sell button. Then smart investors simply will buy those BTC at a cheap price. This has been the formula since the beginning, and it's no secret as well that those who panic usually regrets their decision when Bitcoin goes on another massive run.

[pooya87]

We've seen a pretty drastic.. let's name it "crash" in the cryptocurrency markets in the past few days. Have you wondered what has caused this to happen? I have, and the conclusion I've reached is that the markets were not only unprepared for this hysteria but we also have no idea if Bitcoin is going to be a safe haven during these times or not.

i don't think you can make that conclusion based on what we have seen so far.
bitcoin market is a worldwide market and it has not yet been affected that much with the panic in my opinion and that panic is not everywhere anyways.
the panic needs to be a lot bigger than this and other markets have to have serious crashes so that we can start observing how bitcoin would react in that situation, whether it goes up or follows others. so far it has never followed any other market and i don't see that changing. the recent drops could have simply happened because price failed to break the major resistance at $10k-$11k after multiple tries for a long time and like all the previous times it had a bigger correction.

[davis196]

I wonder why the coronavirus hysteria is so big.
After all,this is a virus with a 2-3% death ratio and only the really old and weak people die.The rest can be cured successfully.
The mainstream media and the social media platforms cause all the hysteria with all the "breaking news" and clickbait BS.
I don't think the hysteria is the only reason behind the Bitcoin price correction.The crypto whales just cashed out big profits at 10K USD price,and they are preparing to buy some cheap bitcoins right before the halving hits and the price goes up.

[jseverson]

We've seen a pretty drastic.. let's name it "crash" in the cryptocurrency markets in the past few days. Have you wondered what has caused this to happen? I have, and the conclusion I've reached is that the markets were not only unprepared for this hysteria but we also have no idea if Bitcoin is going to be a safe haven during these times or not.

I don't know if the drop is significant enough to be indicative of market jitters. The way I see it, speculators have been hoarding coins ahead of the halving (considering how hyped it is this time around), then just dropped their coins once they feel they've reached the ceiling. Basically the same thing happened last halving, where prices started going down near the halving date, and the downtrend continued for like 3 months after.

I would like to be surprised though. The halving is still a couple months away, so there's definitely still a lot of action to be had.

[1Referee]

So I'm not panicking, I will just sit it out and let those who panic push the sell button. Then smart investors simply will buy those BTC at a cheap price. This has been the formula since the beginning, and it's no secret as well that those who panic usually regrets their decision when Bitcoin goes on another massive run.

It looks like smart investors are actually unloading, and the dumb money buying the dips. I'm preparing for ~$7500 to be met before the halving takes place, which I'll then look into whether or not it's worth buying. Perhaps there might be a shallow bounce in the coming days, but that's perfect to sell into if you want to get out.

Closing below the 200 daily moving average (which we did two days ago) is generally a sign that you should be preparing for more downside, hence the reason I am short as we speak.

On a more positive note, wherever we end up bottoming, that will very likely turn out to be the best recent entry point. It's hard to be macro bearish with the emission of coins getting cut in half in the coming months.

[20kevin20]

I've read the replies so far and I'm pretty surprised how you guys tell me the Bitcoin fall isn't correlated to the Coronavirus outbreak at all as if they're part of two different universes.

Do you guys think that cryptocurrencies are 100% immune to all the other moves in the markets? Some of the most important stocks USA just had the biggest crash in their history and overall it's been the biggest drop since 2008, and some of you say the stock markets need to have a bigger crash to affect BTC.. Isn't a worse-than-2008 crash enough?! Trillions of dollars have already been wiped out..

It is not like stock traders panic sell in this hysteria while Bitcoin traders are having the best time of their life. My main point was that a stock market crash will provoke a BTC sell-off too and, after a while, Bitcoin will wake up and surprise us with another insane boom.

Keep in mind that Bitcoin has never been through such hysteria before..

[OcTradism]

the recent drops could have simply happened because price failed to break the major resistance at $10k-$11k after multiple tries for a long time and like all the previous times it had a bigger correction.

And there is a history that bitcoin has never broken its all time high price at halving days. Will bitcoin make it with this halving, the first time in its history? With the rising demands and general increases of crypto acceptance and the better law regulations, it has better conditions than the past to break its ATH around halving day, the 1st record.

If bitcoin breaks that resistance, then people will fomo buy it again and their fomo demands can help price skyrockets to the $14k.

[icewitch0612]

Bitcoin surprises us every year. Isn't that enough for you ?

[Wexnident]

I wonder why the coronavirus hysteria is so big.
After all,this is a virus with a 2-3% death ratio and only the really old and weak people die.The rest can be cured successfully.
The mainstream media and the social media platforms cause all the hysteria with all the "breaking news" and clickbait BS.
I don't think the hysteria is the only reason behind the Bitcoin price correction.The crypto whales just cashed out big profits at 10K USD price,and they are preparing to buy some cheap bitcoins right before the halving hits and the price goes up.

Because of the media. They basically embellish the news regarding the spread of the virus plus announcing every little "predictions" of scientists around the globe. Now, the mass, as we know it, take these "predictions" as facts instead, spreading mass hysteria all over the globe. Still, it's a virus quite devastating, but I really doubt it's enough to affect the market by so much. I mean, we'd have to wait for it to at least reach the level of the black death to at least say that the market would crash right?

 Imo though, what affected the market heavily was the reaction of the traders towards the "threat" levels of the Corona virus. That, and the cause of the massive drops of stocks just recently these past few days. There really isn't any solid data to prove it, but the reactions of the population should be enough as proof no?

[Anonylz]

I've read the replies so far and I'm pretty surprised how you guys tell me the Bitcoin fall isn't correlated to the Coronavirus outbreak at all as if they're part of two different universes...

I am also of the opinion that one has nothing to do with the other, my reason for saying this is that this is not the first crash in price of btc and won't  be the last base on market movement history,
If you think this correction has something in common with coronavirus then what about other corrections that have happened in the past, should we tie them to the events that occur during that time! and what if nothing happen at that time?

[joinfree]

@OP When it comes to survival you can expect to see all this panic from people mate so don't take it too hard on them I am sure if it hits your country you might even do worst. Well, the panic from Coronavirus is surely one which everybody should be concerned about. Though you see bitcoin's price stabling. I am certainly sure we are likely going to see a major decline in its value if this disease is not slowed down at any point in time.
Even if world governments decide to switch to the use of cryptocurrencies following this infectious disease it will certainly not be bitcoin but some other altcoins.

[dothebeats]

I wonder why the coronavirus hysteria is so big.
After all,this is a virus with a 2-3% death ratio and only the really old and weak people die.The rest can be cured successfully.
The mainstream media and the social media platforms cause all the hysteria with all the "breaking news" and clickbait BS.
I don't think the hysteria is the only reason behind the Bitcoin price correction.The crypto whales just cashed out big profits at 10K USD price,and they are preparing to buy some cheap bitcoins right before the halving hits and the price goes up.

News flash: COVID-19 is actually a global threat and that's not overestimating what it can do. If anything, microbiologists are actually questioning whether the reports China are releasing on the daily are credible or they are really just covering up what's really happening behind the scenes. Either way, even if the virus is that scary, it shouldn't be connected to anything crypto-related as the ones actually affected by this pandemic are the tourism and domestic economy of China and the world.

As for bitcoin, it is always a matter of time before it surprises anyone. Just the previous bull run to ATH was a huge shocker to the world, as most people were stating that bitcoin will never reach more than $5000 no matter how much push the traders do. Bitcoin is capable of doing such due to it being in a free market, and anyone can join the fun as long as they have the money to trade. That's the edge of bitcoin over traditional markets, hence why it will always perform better since people know they can jump in and out of the water whenever there are events happening around.

[Artemis3]

My personal opinion is we should not panic or panic-sell. If you're in a huge need of cash, commodities should probably be somewhere on the second half, towards the end, of the list of stuff you're thinking to sell. Time will prove whether I'm right or not though, and I wish I could give the best advice ever during these times but I am not willing to take responsibility for anyone's assets, wealth or life. Therefore, this post serves as a summary of the accumulated thoughts I've been having in the recent days.. any critique is more than welcome, so feel free to contradict me

Panic sell is always idiotic. You are correct in everything you said, perhaps the big inflation might not come just yet, but economy recession is. If the inflation does come, welcome to the club. Those who kept their bitcoins, will have the best chance.

Unfortunately most people here have never experienced inflation beyond 1 digit, or 2 digits, they may even think it could never happen to them. They might be right, or they might be wrong. Unfortunately, if it does happen, it will be too late. The only way to prepare, is to always keep a bitcoin stash just in case.

I think bitcoin price is going to bounce up at some point, either before the halving, or after it. This virus seems it could take 5% to 10% of the world population, while the elderly is the most endangered group, its not exclusive and younger people have died as well. So its not like the panic is unfounded, but the reaction sometimes is.

[Darker45]

The rise and spread of this very infectious virus is no joke anymore at this stage. The World Health Organization (WHO) has just raised the level of global risk to "very high." Just recently, a person in the US is infected without knowing where the infection came from. Furthermore, more countries are included in the list where the virus is present. Mexico, New Zealand, and Azerbaijan are now infected as well. 

In times like this, people will cease to do their usual business. Not just people but also countries. As a result, the flow and circulation of money is limited. A lot of people who stop doing business take refuge to their savings. Others will definitely need to sell some properties in exchange for cash. They need money to continue surviving while hiding inside their homes. Those who have Bitcoin may also consider selling their Bitcoin even if they do not really have the intention to let go of it. It is pointless to argue that Bitcoin has exactly 21 million in supply, Bitcoin cannot be seized, Bitcoin is an asset against inflation, and so on and so forth. The point is that if they cannot buy their day to day needs using Bitcoin, they might as well sell them. A lot of people are not receiving their regular salaries due to companies and stores closing. Many of these businesses are closed indefinitely. They badly need cash for now.

Hopefully, when all of this is finally over and the smoke goes down, people will quickly recover and get back those possessions they've sold out of pure necessity. And that includes Bitcoin.

[coinfinger]

I don’t really think that I should consider Bitcoin as a safe haven. Bitcoin is good, but the volatile nature makes it to be a lot risky. There are times you can invest and the price will fall and you will start losing and sometimes it happens unexpectedly and at a time you will not be comfortable with it. Bitcoin might be a good choice for a long term investment and that’s if you have plans to invest for like a decade?

Because from what I have come to understand, as times goes on the price of Bitcoin is increasing slowly. Last year the lowest price was $3000 and if you check past years you will notice that their lowest is below that. So that shows that every year there is an improvement.

[Mulann2]

I don’t really think that I should consider Bitcoin as a safe haven. Bitcoin is good, but the volatile nature makes it to be a lot risky. There are times you can invest and the price will fall and you will start losing and sometimes it happens unexpectedly and at a time you will not be comfortable with it. Bitcoin might be a good choice for a long term investment and that’s if you have plans to invest for like a decade?

Because from what I have come to understand, as times goes on the price of Bitcoin is increasing slowly. Last year the lowest price was $3000 and if you check past years you will notice that their lowest is below that. So that shows that every year there is an improvement.

Yeah, I agree about the volatility aspect of btc, it will be hard for someone like me to also consider btc as a safe haven or store of value, this will only be very interesting if the price is a bit stable or rises without falling which is very impossible,
So in the absence of this 2 option, it will be difficult to consider this, although when the price is high it makes you to forget when the price is down, better to consider long term, then you won't worry so much about occasional drops.

[hatshepsut93]

I've read the replies so far and I'm pretty surprised how you guys tell me the Bitcoin fall isn't correlated to the Coronavirus outbreak at all as if they're part of two different universes.

Do you guys think that cryptocurrencies are 100% immune to all the other moves in the markets? Some of the most important stocks USA just had the biggest crash in their history and overall it's been the biggest drop since 2008, and some of you say the stock markets need to have a bigger crash to affect BTC.. Isn't a worse-than-2008 crash enough?! Trillions of dollars have already been wiped out..

It is possible, but there are more arguments against it:

1. 15% drop isn't too uncommon in crypto, it happens at least a few times per year with Bitcoin, and it historically dropped even lower without any global events that could explain it.

2. We just had a rally, going from $7k to $10k, when a rally loses steam, correction follows.

3. Why should coronavirus or stock markets affect Bitcoin? There's no direct connection, there's no underlying mechanism for such movements. So far the argument for it seems to be "everyone panics so they sell Bitcoin", but with such logic you could say that every single asset should crash because people "panic". This isn't the case.

[palle11]

I wonder why the coronavirus hysteria is so big.
After all,this is a virus with a 2-3% death ratio and only the really old and weak people die.The rest can be cured successfully.
The mainstream media and the social media platforms cause all the hysteria with all the "breaking news" and clickbait BS.
I don't think the hysteria is the only reason behind the Bitcoin price correction.The crypto whales just cashed out big profits at 10K USD price,and they are preparing to buy some cheap bitcoins right before the halving hits and the price goes up.

I also don't know why the so much negative news about it, maybe a strategy to get families to sell off what they have cheaply including bitcoins. Yes, I read in google, it isn't as if it kills as the media has popularize it. I read SARS is more dreaded but then maybe some coins have been sold out of panic. We however expect that market will soon start recovering.

[CaVO32]

I wonder why the coronavirus hysteria is so big.
After all,this is a virus with a 2-3% death ratio and only the really old and weak people die.The rest can be cured successfully.
The mainstream media and the social media platforms cause all the hysteria with all the "breaking news" and clickbait BS.
I don't think the hysteria is the only reason behind the Bitcoin price correction.The crypto whales just cashed out big profits at 10K USD price,and they are preparing to buy some cheap bitcoins right before the halving hits and the price goes up.

I also don't know why the so much negative news about it, maybe a strategy to get families to sell off what they have cheaply including bitcoins. Yes, I read in google, it isn't as if it kills as the media has popularize it. I read SARS is more dreaded but then maybe some coins have been sold out of panic. We however expect that market will soon start recovering.

It is a dreaded epidemic because people are really dying. The number of deaths given by China is not the real one as many are claiming that their relatives who were dead because of this has not been accounted for. and the widespread infection is fast. if someone is infected and has not been diagnosed properly, he will be dead soon also. so I guess, i understand if many people are scared of this virus. and the problem is, vaccine is not yet fully developed. but we don't know the exact impact of it in the crypto market, if they really sold off or not? they should be buying instead as it is one of the safest to transact right now and not using fiat currency particularly in China.