Here is why the market is still bearish (nothing to do with the Corona virus)

[Bossian]

Simple but powerful chart.

Quite straightforward, the resistance at 10.5k was very well known and it is pretty clear this resistance is too strong now. This 10.5k is the price we needed to break to obtain a higher high and reverse the trend. We have been in this downtrend for about 7 months.
We've been rejected at 10.5k several times, that's why the downtrend is still alive and kicking.

Is the corona virus causing this? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. Every day of the year there will be some types of news, but remember the answers are always in the charts.

By the way, the fear index is at 41 right now which not a high level, that's why there should be more blood soon (watch out for 7.5k first).

The truth is: the chart above shows the trend that has been playing out since December 2017. We have a rejection in June 2019 at 14k. And the last bearish engulfing weekly candle (less than a day ago) clearly confirms the trend.


Congrats to those who bought at 6.5k by the way, very nice profit up to 10.5k. Now 2020 will be very bad for the bulls (very good for the bears). You think the halving will have any effect? Dream on my friends...


I am making the prediction here than 2020 December 31th will see a Bitcoin price under 6k.

[exstasie]

That trend line is drawn pretty subjectively. Drawn from the wicks, we never even got close to it. We came about ~$1,400 short.

I agree there were plenty of reasons why we stopped at $10,500 though, starting with this one:

Yup, and there's another obvious reason why the market corrected:

Sentiment too. The Fear & Greed index was getting greedy. Check out Bitmex open interest for the past 1.5 months too.



It needed to take a breather. The market likes to punish both bears and bulls, even if the prevailing trend is upwards.

You interpret this short term downtrend as a sign of a longer term bear market. That's where we disagree. I see it as nothing more than a short term correction to the December-February uptrend.

By the way, the fear index is at 41 right now which not a high level, that's why there should be more blood soon (watch out for 7.5k first).

It's actually in the 30s now.

I guess we read it differently. Since the weekly and monthly trends are so bullish, I view this as a short term contrarian indicator. Right now, I think shorts are getting trapped and weak hands are getting shaken out before higher prices.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Someone said bearish? Where? You guys really need to zoom out sometimes

That trend line is drawn pretty subjectively. Drawn from the wicks, we never even got close to it. We came about ~$1,400 short.

Agree. You can proof everyhting if you drow lines like Stevie Wonder.

[alani123]

I agree with OP in regards to how the price isn't related to coronavirus. But i disagree on how it's all in the charts. Charts only show past data, and at best a current ticker. There's no way to forecast prices with accuracy simply from that. In fact, many argue that price forecasting isn't possible in general and especially with how bitcoin is unregulated, its markets are purely responding to demand and supply...

[snipie]

I agree with OP in regards to how the price isn't related to coronavirus. But i disagree on how it's all in the charts. Charts only show past data, and at best a current ticker. There's no way to forecast prices with accuracy simply from that. In fact, many argue that price forecasting isn't possible in general and especially with how bitcoin is unregulated, its markets are purely responding to demand and supply...

Corona virus, at the opposite, will make people very sceptical about papers, gold and every materials, so they will push them to use non-physic money including bitcoin. Actual price drop is related to traders trying to grab some profit from the high price lately..

[fortunecrypto]

Simple but powerful chart.

Quite straightforward, the resistance at 10.5k was very well known and it is pretty clear this resistance is too strong now. This 10.5k is the price we needed to break to obtain a higher high and reverse the trend. We have been in this downtrend for about 7 months.
We've been rejected at 10.5k several times, that's why the downtrend is still alive and kicking.

Is the corona virus causing this? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. Every day of the year there will be some types of news, but remember the answers are always in the charts.

By the way, the fear index is at 41 right now which not a high level, that's why there should be more blood soon (watch out for 7.5k first).

The truth is: the chart above shows the trend that has been playing out since December 2017. We have a rejection in June 2019 at 14k. And the last bearish engulfing weekly candle (less than a day ago) clearly confirms the trend.


Congrats to those who bought at 6.5k by the way, very nice profit up to 10.5k. Now 2020 will be very bad for the bulls (very good for the bears). You think the halving will have any effect? Dream on my friends...


I am making the prediction here than 2020 December 31th will see a Bitcoin price under 6k.

I am quoting your thread here so you cannot deny that you predicted that Bitcoin price will go down to under $6 k probably one of the weirdest prediction, just when the halving is coming when everybody are predicting moon and lambo for Bitcoin I don't know your expertise but I just rely on history and common sense, no chart really.

[davis196]

Is the corona virus causing this? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. Every day of the year there will be some types of news, but remember the answers are always in the charts.

What???So the charts are some kind of oracle and whoever reads them will know the future price trends?
Then how come all the technical analysts aren't millionaires yet?Maybe reading the charts is too difficult.
The news are what causes the price and chart movements.And yes,the panic around the coronavirus has influence over the bitcoin price.It already has influence over the stock prices for sure.
The coronavirus impact over the global economy will grow even further.
Your logic is completely wrong.

[Cherylstar86]

Is the corona virus causing this? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. Every day of the year there will be some types of news, but remember the answers are always in the charts.

What???So the charts are some kind of oracle and whoever reads them will know the future price trends?
Then how come all the technical analysts aren't millionaires yet?Maybe reading the charts is too difficult.
The news are what causes the price and chart movements.And yes,the panic around the coronavirus has influence over the bitcoin price.It already has influence over the stock prices for sure.
The coronavirus impact over the global economy will grow even further.
Your logic is completely wrong.

There's nothing we can do to control over this scenario against corona virus, and it became an epidemic disease all over the country of china and the neighboring countries. Panic caused a lot of troubles, and the people on the affected countries will eventually pull down their asset for personal consumption without considering the loss. What's important is their lives in behalf of an asset.

[Leon83]

Draw a line underneath aswell (on log scale), and you got yourself a squeezing wedge on macro level! And when the price reaches the tip area somewhere after the halving it will most likely break to the upside.

[Upgrade00]

Whenever I come across posts like; 'this is why the market is bearish' or 'what would cause a bull run' I always read with lots of skepticism. The factors that control the market and direct it's movement is largely unknown, and the use of technical analysis or any other form of chart is more of a gamble than an actual indication of the market movement.

Fundamental analysis is a more useful tool in my opinion as it affects real world situation and it's effects can be felt. The corona virus is an example, crisis in some country or another.
Although, I don't think the virus has much of an impact on the current market trend. I also don't think that we have been in a bearish trend for the last couple of months.

[bitbunnny]

I agree with OP in regards to how the price isn't related to coronavirus. But i disagree on how it's all in the charts. Charts only show past data, and at best a current ticker. There's no way to forecast prices with accuracy simply from that. In fact, many argue that price forecasting isn't possible in general and especially with how bitcoin is unregulated, its markets are purely responding to demand and supply...

I totaly agree that price of Bitcoin isn't related to corona virus as some claim, as as it wasn't related with Valentine's day, Christmas or anything similar.
Techical data and charts can be useful and it's good to.have the insight in the price movements  in the past. However, only that can't be used for prediction of further situations because price of Bitcoin is complex, defined by supply and demand but also some factors outside market.

[fabiorem]

I agree with OP in regards to how the price isn't related to coronavirus. But i disagree on how it's all in the charts. Charts only show past data, and at best a current ticker. There's no way to forecast prices with accuracy simply from that. In fact, many argue that price forecasting isn't possible in general and especially with how bitcoin is unregulated, its markets are purely responding to demand and supply...

Corona virus, at the opposite, will make people very sceptical about papers, gold and every materials, so they will push them to use non-physic money including bitcoin. Actual price drop is related to traders trying to grab some profit from the high price lately..

Coronavirus will be good for bitcoin as long as the truth about it wont come out, and people buy the panic promoted by the media. With the avoidance of paper money and even debit cards, some people might run to crypto, injecting new money into it.

Problem is, the lesser whales will keep gambling with futures, trying to push the price down, like the greedy bears they are.

[hatshepsut93]

Fundamental analysis is a more useful tool in my opinion as it affects real world situation and it's effects can be felt. The corona virus is an example, crisis in some country or another.
Although, I don't think the virus has much of an impact on the current market trend. I also don't think that we have been in a bearish trend for the last couple of months.

I'd say it's the opposite - right now technical analysis aka speculation is a better tool than fundamental analysis, because Bitcoin doesn't have established and strong fundamentals - we have so much market data, and there's still no clear connection between world events and Bitcoin price.

In this particular case, coronavirus seems like such a weak reason for a price drop, since it doesn't affect Bitcoin directly. The explanation of a correction and failure to break important resistance level makes much more sense than that.

[exstasie]

Fundamental analysis is a more useful tool in my opinion as it affects real world situation and it's effects can be felt. The corona virus is an example, crisis in some country or another.
Although, I don't think the virus has much of an impact on the current market trend. I also don't think that we have been in a bearish trend for the last couple of months.

I'd say it's the opposite - right now technical analysis aka speculation is a better tool than fundamental analysis, because Bitcoin doesn't have established and strong fundamentals - we have so much market data, and there's still no clear connection between world events and Bitcoin price.

The truth is BTC doesn't even have "fundamentals" in the way stocks do. Stocks have hard fundamental data like earnings growth, sector market share, P/E ratio, etc. that translates to fairly predictable returns. With Bitcoin, what do we have? Pseudonymous blockchain data, fake volume BTC exchanges, skewed public surveys?

The fundamentals are always going to be way murkier than stocks, especially stocks on the blue chip end of things. TA is king.

[snipie]

I agree with OP in regards to how the price isn't related to coronavirus. But i disagree on how it's all in the charts. Charts only show past data, and at best a current ticker. There's no way to forecast prices with accuracy simply from that. In fact, many argue that price forecasting isn't possible in general and especially with how bitcoin is unregulated, its markets are purely responding to demand and supply...

Corona virus, at the opposite, will make people very sceptical about papers, gold and every materials, so they will push them to use non-physic money including bitcoin. Actual price drop is related to traders trying to grab some profit from the high price lately..

Coronavirus will be good for bitcoin as long as the truth about it wont come out, and people buy the panic promoted by the media. With the avoidance of paper money and even debit cards, some people might run to crypto, injecting new money into it.

Problem is, the lesser whales will keep gambling with futures, trying to push the price down, like the greedy bears they are.

Pushing the price a little bit down in the actual world crisis is in fact good.
Now we have a profitable coin, that has actually a "low" price and this price will increase soon especially after the halving + people are getting afraid from physical materials = more people joining the wave 

[xvids]

I don't really understand why the corona virus is being attach to the price of crypto?
Why would the price of crypto drops down because of it?
It doesn't have any connection in crypto currency so why would we blame it for the price drop?

[el kaka22]

That resistance point will eventually be broken, all the resistance points are easily broken when enough people want it broken as well. We had a very strong $9.2k resistance as well that we broke through not only because people actually bought bitcoin at those prices but also because people actually removed their orders from those prices to make the wall a lot smaller to break as well.

So, when we reach $10.5k once again (and we will reach that eventually, we just don't know when) we will see that not only people will buy from those prices to break down the wall but we will see the wall get smaller as well. It will just take some time and it will probably require couple of tries before we can actually go above that price. And I totally agree that it has nothing to do with corona at all.

[Gozie51]

I don't really understand why the corona virus is being attach to the price of crypto?
Why would the price of crypto drops down because of it?
It doesn't have any connection in crypto currency so why would we blame it for the price drop?

I think that is because bitcoin is about the people, the hodlers. If the hodlers keep falling sick and not able to be active to buy and sell which would increase trade volume etc, that could be a logical reason IMO .

[The Sceptical Chymist]

That chart is anything but "powerful".  You picked two arbitrary points and drew a straight line between them and drew a conclusion from that.  That's ridiculous.  I could just as easily show you why bitcoin's bull run isn't finished yet by drawing a straight line from the very beginning of that chart (in 2017) to the present--and my line would be equally as silly.

OP, if you really think bitcoin is headed lower, are you putting your money where your mouth is and shorting it?  How confident are you in that line you drew?

[1Referee]

I think that is because bitcoin is about the people, the hodlers. If the hodlers keep falling sick and not able to be active to buy and sell which would increase trade volume etc, that could be a logical reason IMO .

Hodlers sit on their chair or sofa staring at the screen all day to see if Bitcoin finally surpassed that $100,000 level. They're hardly buying even though many of them are loudly presenting themselves as "dip buyers". It's just the same nonsense as we have always had. Very retarded bull narrative. I'm confident that most of these "hodlers" don't hold many coins to begin with.

Most of the people wishing for $100,000 only do that because they know that they need such insane valuations to see their holdings grow in value much enough. You won't be getting rich with a few tenths of a whole coin, neither with a whole coin which many can't afford nowadays.

In the end, it doesn't matter how many times we go through these corrections, people even if they have been here for a couple of years never get used to them. They always catch them by surprise.