Bitcoin Close To Testing Logarithmic Growth Curves Around $7.4K

[dragonvslinux]

Similar to December 2019, we reached a couple of hundred dollars from the lower support trend of the logarithmic growth curve (currently at $7413 as of 10/03).
This is otherwise known as the adoption s-curve.



"Everything is fine" - Buying the lower band of logarithmic support yields excellent results.



Source: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-logarithmic-growth-curve/

Note: Chart doesn't include today's low of $7,630 but yesterday's close around $8,100.

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[adaseb]

Do you know when this curve was created? Seems a little to accurate. In the article it says it was created in Dec 2019, so did it predict Dec 2019 or did they draw the curve from that day? One reason I am asking is because it might be a repainting indicator. Many of these indicators in hindsight seem to work great however when you use them in real-time they produce alot of false positives.

Either way, I am assuming anywhere from $5.5-$7.5k or so is a good long area. Way too much panic in the markets and in a few weeks it might boil over. The markets are generally reacting very bad due to the oil price wars and its creating panic pretty much in every sector including crypto. I think in a few months time this will all pass and we will see how the halving performs.

[exstasie]

Do you know when this curve was created? Seems a little to accurate. In the article it says it was created in Dec 2019, so did it predict Dec 2019 or did they draw the curve from that day? One reason I am asking is because it might be a repainting indicator. Many of these indicators in hindsight seem to work great however when you use them in real-time they produce alot of false positives.

That's the nature of all trend lines or curves. It's regression analysis, a form of curve fitting. Over time, lines of best fit will always become increasingly inaccurate. As new data comes in, we find more "accurate" ones which themselves will fail over time.

A friend of mine used to say "trend lines were meant to be broken." And he's right. Once I start seeing 4, 5, 6 touches on a trend line, I start expecting it to fail. It's not some fundamentally huge deal when it happens either. It's just mean regression.

[GreatArkansas]

I also this chart on twitter: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1236741267440259072
They have also some similarities in the first post charts which is pretty amazing and clean charts.
There are lot of higher timeframe charts are in danger now, it's like hanging on the cliff. Most are in the support areas.
It's really like a cycle what is happening now, if you compare it on the previous years, especially if you will zoom out the charts.

[dragonvslinux]

Do you know when this curve was created? Seems a little to accurate. In the article it says it was created in Dec 2019, so did it predict Dec 2019 or did they draw the curve from that day? One reason I am asking is because it might be a repainting indicator. Many of these indicators in hindsight seem to work great however when you use them in real-time they produce alot of false positives.

Good question, while it's done a good job picking out the bottoms in 2019, I have to agree with the following:

That's the nature of all trend lines or curves. It's regression analysis, a form of curve fitting. Over time, lines of best fit will always become increasingly inaccurate. As new data comes in, we find more "accurate" ones which themselves will fail over time.

A friend of mine used to say "trend lines were meant to be broken." And he's right. Once I start seeing 4, 5, 6 touches on a trend line, I start expecting it to fail. It's not some fundamentally huge deal when it happens either. It's just mean regression.

I can see that argument for sure, especially when it has ground along the bottom of this curve numerous times, while the top of this curve has only 3 touch-points. Therefore, as support has been tested a lot more than the resistance of this channel, it is more likely to break than the resistance level.

That said, we are starting to see a bounce from the same lower band as we have done throughout Bitcoin's history. If we find support from this curve as has happened previously, it would be a good indicator of another swing low. The relevance of this curve is being tested at the moment, that's for sure.

[bitgolden]

The problem with historical data charts is the simple fact that you can find resembles to whatever you want whenever you want. I can check right now and find something that will show how what happened today happened before as well and it will go up again, I can also go back enough to find how it will continue to go back down as well.

You see when you look further back enough and you take the chart into days/hours/weeks/months or whatever you want, you can basically find comparisons to anything you want, up or down or stable and all of them would be easy to find with help of some scripts as well so you can do it every single day for every single chart. Could this be true? Of course it could be, does this mean it is true? I doubt that but even if it is that doesn't change anything.

[fabiorem]

I dont trust FA anymore, because the curves always change to postpone the next levels. This means FA is currently being sold as hopium to those who dont pay attention.

TA is much more trustworthy at the moment, even when it miss the mark.

[exstasie]

I dont trust FA anymore, because the curves always change to postpone the next levels. This means FA is currently being sold as hopium to those who dont pay attention.

TA is much more trustworthy at the moment, even when it miss the mark.

I would consider drawing trend lines or curves to be TA. The OP's log curve may be long term but it's a purely technical view of price action.

FA would be things like stock-to-flow ratio, the halving, on-chain activity, legal/regulatory issues, the global economy and its effect on BTC, and other fundamental things like that.