Best Overview Of Corona Virus Impact on Finance and the Economy I've Seen So Far

[Hydrogen]

From the GoldSilver youtube channel featuring Mike Maloney and guest Chris Martenson.

Part 1 CoronaVirus: Devastating Economic Consequences To Come:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIeHqjC_wsg

Part 2 Could Coronavirus Trigger the Monetary Reset?:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSNK4MlHqwA

Part 3 Coronavirus Update: IT'S NOT THE FLU!:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6COVaMgHAd0


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The main issue with corona virus in terms of finance/economics is a massive proportion of global production and supply chains being heavily centralized within china, the epicenter of the disaster. There have been calls to decentralize and rely on china less for global productive capacity to prevent similar incidents in the future. I wouldn't expect a full recovery until after we pass peak crisis. That would appear to be a long way off.

The virus itself remains an unknown variable. It has been described as a cross between SARS and AIDs/HIV due to it attacking lungs and immune system in a similar fashion to both illnesses. The problem with global pandemics is it only takes a single person to infect 9 billion people. It is similar to a zombie apocalypse where a single infected can go on to infect another. Then those two zombies can infect two more. It can theoretically attain exponential growth: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024 and on and on.

From the spanish flu we know these infections can come in waves spanning years. It could literally be years before life returns to some semblance of normality.

I'm not kidding myself. I 100% expect to have the virus at some point. Unless it mutates to a point where it no longer infects people before I come across it. Which doesn't appear likely looking at how things are going in italy and nations nearer to the epicenter in china.

Thankfully it won't affect cryptocurrency as much as it may other traditional financial institutions like banks. Some countries are burning their cash for fear of currency being contaminated with the virus. Banks may be forced to close as workers become sick. Hopefully crypto mining is automated enough along with vendors and retailers in the crypto industry for crypto to not be as affected.

[Findingnemo]

And a few minutes ago it was declared as pandemic officially by the World Health Organization.What if billion people got infected by this virus in real soon because it is spreading on the rate.Whole world will be in a mess,yes as well as financially.

[palle11]

And a few minutes ago it was declared as pandemic officially by the World Health Organization.What if billion people got infected by this virus in real soon because it is spreading on the rate.Whole world will be in a mess,yes as well as financially.

It has been so declared and most countries have been taking further step to burn their cash.
I hope that the health sectors of the world finds the solution to this epidemic that seem to be spreading to different region. I hope something is done soon.

[o_e_l_e_o]

He makes a good point in the second video at the 5 to 6 minute marks. We are already seeing the start of this with big central banks like the Fed and the Bank of England cutting interest rates. The next step, as he says, is more quantitative easing and currency printing. In the scenario of there being collapsing supply chains, reduced production, reduced manufacturing, the lack of money isn't the issue - it's the lack of goods to buy. More money for fewer goods and services can only lead to rampant fiat inflation.

It could literally be years before life returns to some semblance of normality.

It won't take years for life to return to normal, but the virus will likely be around for years to come. There are some models which predict a second wave in the winter (northern hemisphere) months, which will be worse than the first wave which is already underway or hitting in the next few weeks, depending on where you live. There is also the possibility that this virus enters the pool of normal human virus along with things like rhinovirus, influenza, and other less serious coronaviruses, and is something which we have to deal with at low levels for ever.

Unless it mutates to a point where it no longer infects people before I come across it.

That's not how mutations work. The virus isn't a single entity. If one case somewhere mutated to infect a different species (for example), there are still over a hundred thousand cases around the world still infecting humans.

[stompix]

It won't take years for life to return to normal, but the virus will likely be around for years to come. There are some models which predict a second wave in the winter (northern hemisphere) months, which will be worse than the first wave which is already underway or hitting in the next few weeks, depending on where you live. There is also the possibility that this virus enters the pool of normal human virus along with things like rhinovirus, influenza, and other less serious coronaviruses, and is something which we have to deal with at low levels for ever.

It doesn't have to work like that.
The 2009 pandemic culprit, A/H1N1 who is a relative of the deadlier Spanish flu virus also disappeared just like it after a year.
Till now the family of the covid19 has acted the same, like mers and sars.

So, based on assumptions it's highly probable once contained it will simply stop and we're going to get rid of it.

But the economic effects are going to be felt for quite a long time.
Around here everything is getting canceled, people are stopping going out, interest in tourism is dying, and we're nowhere near the situation in Italy.
Add the oil war on top of this f* situation and it's not going to be pretty.

More money for fewer goods and services can only lead to rampant fiat inflation.

It depends...probably there will be fewer goods as factories shut down and the chains are affected but at the same time, demand is going down.
People staying in their homes scared of the virus won't rush to buy new cars, remember this: China car sales plummet 80 percent

Right now I think we're actually experiencing the opposite, nobody to use the services as malls and hotels and restaurants are empty.

[o_e_l_e_o]

It doesn't have to work like that.

Doesn't have to, but it might. There are several coronaviruses, such as OC43, which cause the common cold and are in widespread circulation. There's no telling if this virus might also enter seasonal circulation yet.

Around here everything is getting canceled, people are stopping going out, interest in tourism is dying, and we're nowhere near the situation in Italy.

I don't know where you are, but this is going to become more commonplace throughout the world, and to a more severe degree as time goes on. Most countries are on the exact same trajectory of cases as Italy, but with a lag time of one to two weeks.

[hatshepsut93]

The main issue with corona virus in terms of finance/economics is a massive proportion of global production and supply chains being heavily centralized within china, the epicenter of the disaster. There have been calls to decentralize and rely on china less for global productive capacity to prevent similar incidents in the future. I wouldn't expect a full recovery until after we pass peak crisis. That would appear to be a long way off.

Unfortunately, when things will return to normal everyone will quickly forget about it and will keep acting like nothing happened and ignoring the fact that China is in many ways a threat to modern society. Some businesses wouldn't survive if they were forced to cut ties with China, others are too greedy to do so. I've heard that China is becoming too expensive and that some other countries are starting to take its role as cheap manufacturer, so maybe there's a chance that during the next Chinese outbreak the economy won't suffer so much.

[inanilujimi]

if researchers still haven't found a vaccine for this virus, in the next month it is possible that crypto will also be affected due to economic crises that hit in several countries, including in my country many basic ingredients for factory products are obtained from China.
if it continues then there will be no more products and many workers will be laid off from work, which could trigger a global economic crisis, including crypto.

[Darker45]

I am expecting the spread of the virus to become worse in the coming weeks or even months but I don't think it will take one full year before an antidote is formulated to stop it. But before it happens, the economy, both domestically and globally, is already shaken. Well, it has already been disrupted to a significant extent by the mere fact that it hit certain provinces in China hard enough. And yes, I agree, a good portion of the world's production of goods is too reliant on China. There is no balance. Hence, a global economic effect was immediately felt as soon as China was locked down.

I 100% expect to have the virus at some point. Unless it mutates to a point where it no longer infects people before I come across it. Which doesn't appear likely looking at how things are going in italy and nations nearer to the epicenter in china.

Seriously? Are you based in Italy? I don't think one is easily infected for as long as he/she is observing proper hygiene, maintains strong immune system, and does social distancing. Wearing mask and avoiding the crowd would also help a lot.

By the way, just a quick update. Hours ago, the Italian government orders all shops, restaurants, bars, and other commercial establishments closed. Such drastic measure is called for during drastic times. Another domestic economy crippled down due to the virus.

https://time.com/5801497/italy-shops-restaurants-coronavirus/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/italy-faces-calls-to-close-everything-to-tackle-coronavirus

[davis196]

The main issue with corona virus in terms of finance/economics is a massive proportion of global production and supply chains being heavily centralized within china, the epicenter of the disaster.

Yeah,but China is recovering from the virus.There are lots of positive news about more people cured,and less people infected.Life goes back to normal in China.I don't trust this info 100%,maybe a portion of it is propaganda coming from the communist party in China.However,there might be some true.
The supply chains will recover faster than you think.We can't beat China in terms of cheap production costs.People and companies in the western world will always want cheaper products.China still has the competitive advantage of cheap labor and cheap electricity.

[buwaytress]

It's true that Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market has and will continue to feel the impact of this virus but I'm still thinking that it's overblown to some extent, and there is the same fear I see affecting everyone -- Bitcoin is not safe, not because it's vulnerable to market fears but because in general, this is an overarching event that will affect human life as we know it. So all the things we care about take a backseat.

That said, I agree the virus comes in waves, and we've already seen it actually. If you lived in Europe then the flu epidemics are common (and on bigger magnitude). In the Netherlands for example, the flu epidemic of 2018/19 caused about 3,900 deaths. Govt said this was 2900 more than it should have been and was the deadliest week on record for the country since the World War. You can reference here: https://www.rivm.nl/sites/default/files/2019-09/TG_123539_011592_Griep_cijfers_A4_EN.pdf

And I'm telling you, a lot of countries in the region get an ANNUAL flu epidemic come winter.

And loads more people get infected and die.

And the level of mass panic is nowhere near COVID because the media doesn't play it up.

I still think COVID is overblown, but it's good that people are sitting up to take notice. It took SARS for people to do that over a decade ago. Maybe we'll be more responsible in the future during regular flu epidemics.

[crwth]

I believe that since everyone would possibly be affected, it would receive equal amounts of impact with that because people who may be supporting cryptocurrency and tries to hold the price would get out and use their crypto for expenses. Even if it's automated, sooner or later, when there are no more people to monitor the mining farm, it could produce errors, and we could have a hard time with that. There is also a large portion of cryptocurrency mining in China, so there could be an effect as well.

Right now, I think what we could do is not panic and do proper hygiene.

[mu_enrico]

Yea, when a crisis happens, people would store their wealth in gold, and spend the rest to fill their bunker. The price of goods would go up, and speculative assets would go down. It's happening right now, look at the crypto price.

However, no need to panic since this event is similar to the avian influenza outbreak. The situation would be difficult, but not like apocalypse when riot is everywhere. It's just like winter, and we shall live past it. #WinterIsComing

[stompix]

~

I don't know where you are, but this is going to become more commonplace throughout the world, and to a more severe degree as time goes on. Most countries are on the exact same trajectory of cases as Italy, but with a lag time of one to two weeks.

Central Europe, really really central   
But most of my family and relatives live in the north part scattered from Poland to Denmark to Belgium.
And from everywhere bad news...Easter is one month away and a cousin is scared that from huge profits during this period with his hotel he is going to total loss, some are working at home and are still don't feel it and others are worse than all, there are discussions of lay-off.

The only good news is from my parent's farm if we would have right now 1000 tonnes of meat we could sell it in seconds, they have been twice or thrice called by almost all the chain stores and meat processing units, demand is skyrocketing.

I've heard that China is becoming too expensive and that some other countries are starting to take its role as cheap manufacturer, so maybe there's a chance that during the next Chinese outbreak the economy won't suffer so much.

Yeah, it's already happening..
At least when it comes to clothes you'll find more made in Japan than in China around here, everything is from Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam.
Same with cheap plastic things and toys, I've seen a wave from SE Asia, the stuffed bears I've bought for my kid lately were from Vietnam, and when it comes to small electronic things I've seen lots of cables, chargers sticks made in Turkey and Poland fewer and fewer in PRC.

[Hydrogen]

Yeah,but China is recovering from the virus.

I don't believe china, south korea or any nation practicing open borders is recovering as they claim. Russia with its closed border is doing ok. With open borders nations, its difficult to believe reactionary methods alone such as testing can produce tangible positive effects. For a different perspective, sources claiming china is faking its corona virus recovery:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8086057/Chinese-business-leaders-leave-lights-work-fake-countrys-recovery-coronavirus.html

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-fake-whistleblowers-191300391.html

if researchers still haven't found a vaccine for this virus

Its been said corona virus is being treated with anti HIV/AIDs medication.

If its similar enough to AIDs in structure and biology that it can be successfully treated with the same medication. I wonder if it might be a exaggeration to say there never will be an effective vaccine for corona. For the same reasons we have no vaccine for AIDs/HIV.

Seriously? Are you based in Italy? I don't think one is easily infected for as long as he/she is observing proper hygiene, maintains strong immune system, and does social distancing. Wearing mask and avoiding the crowd would also help a lot.

If the virus is as contagious as advertised. I expect to get it eventually due to how much higher population density is in 2020 in contrast to say the spanish flu in the early 1900s. Similar reasons also factor in. Isolationism appears to be the best policy. In many ways, we're less equipped to utilize this strategy. In comparison to those in the early 1900s who were far more prone towards being self sufficient living in independent farms and communities.

It could literally be years before life returns to some semblance of normality.

It won't take years for life to return to normal, but the virus will likely be around for years to come. There are some models which predict a second wave in the winter (northern hemisphere) months, which will be worse than the first wave which is already underway or hitting in the next few weeks, depending on where you live. There is also the possibility that this virus enters the pool of normal human virus along with things like rhinovirus, influenza, and other less serious coronaviruses, and is something which we have to deal with at low levels for ever.

I was reading Steve Wozniak of apple fame's twitter page.

https://twitter.com/stevewoz

He seems to indicate he currently has corona in march 2020. And that he had it in january 2020. I hope he never gets it again. In terms of worst case scenarios, it seems possible to contract the virus every other month for who knows how long.

Unless it mutates to a point where it no longer infects people before I come across it.

That's not how mutations work. The virus isn't a single entity. If one case somewhere mutated to infect a different species (for example), there are still over a hundred thousand cases around the world still infecting humans.

I read a news story claiming a 2nd strain of corona virus was found, indicating it was mutating. The way I see it, there are two main possibilities for explaining why plagues and epidemics come to an end. The first possibility is substantial improvement in the treatment or prevention of infection. The second is the virus mutating to a point where its no longer as infectious.

With global pandemics like the spanish flu, I don't think there was a substantial improvement in treatment or prevention of infection at the tail end of it. Which could indicate the virus simply mutated into a benign or less infectious form.

[pixie85]

Thankfully it won't affect cryptocurrency as much as it may other traditional financial institutions like banks.

Are you sure about that? To me it seems that cryptocurrencies are acting exactly like stocks and are treated the same by people. People are selling all investmenst and turning it all into money because they think they might need money in case of emergency.

In their simple minds they see themselves running away from the flu and buying fuel and food along the way. Maybe they'll need money to bribe someone. They prefer to have something that can be spent fast.

[Darker45]

Seriously? Are you based in Italy? I don't think one is easily infected for as long as he/she is observing proper hygiene, maintains strong immune system, and does social distancing. Wearing mask and avoiding the crowd would also help a lot.

If the virus is as contagious as advertised. I expect to get it eventually due to how much higher population density is in 2020 in contrast to say the spanish flu in the early 1900s. Similar reasons also factor in. Isolationism appears to be the best policy. In many ways, we're less equipped to utilize this strategy. In comparison to those in the early 1900s who were far more prone towards being self sufficient living in independent farms and communities.

Well, the probability to be infected is a lot higher today than it could have been in the past decades. That is one of the effects of having a cramped world. That is why I found it a bit funny when our government declared social distancing as a must. It is highly recommended that everybody should be more than a meter apart from each other to keep everyone safe in case somebody is a carrier of the highly infectious virus. The problem is that the huge majority of the population is using the terribly insufficient public transportation causing the riding public to squeeze themselves into the tiniest spaces in order to get a ride.

Just last night, the capital region in my country is declared to be locked down in the next few weeks to contain the spread of the virus. Now, the lockdown has to be partial because the region, the most populated one all over the country, has to eat and the food supply is coming from the outside.

I don't know where we are headed right now. I have also heard of people getting the virus from unknown sources. I guess the virus is much more widespread than it is being portrayed.

Thankfully it won't affect cryptocurrency as much as it may other traditional financial institutions like banks.

Are you sure about that? To me it seems that cryptocurrencies are acting exactly like stocks and are treated the same by people. People are selling all investmenst and turning it all into money because they think they might need money in case of emergency.

In their simple minds they see themselves running away from the flu and buying fuel and food along the way. Maybe they'll need money to bribe someone. They prefer to have something that can be spent fast.

The virus makes everything similar. There is no more non-correlated asset in these trying times. Everything is being put to their knees. The sell off is now extended to almost everything, and that includes cryptocurrency. We are now losing almost 50% of Bitcoin's value in less than 24 hours.

[el kaka22]

I really doubt it is only with China that the markets are getting this bad. Surely that is one of the biggest reasons there is but that doesn't mean it is the only reason neither. Right now USA literally closed their borders to Europe and not getting any people from Europe to back for example. Do you really think that wouldn't have absolutely zero affects on economy? No way it would get away that easily. Basically trades are generally getting closed both in an out and that means everything that is produced in one nation will be sold in that nation and all the import and export all around the world is getting hurt by this corona.

I remember all the other virus outbreaks as well but this seems to take the cake when it comes to fear of people for some reason.

[Kakmakr]

I can understand why stocks and commodity prices are dropping, because companies are closing and production are going down, but why should this virus have such a huge influence on the Bitcoin price? We do not have large industries closing their doors and the mining hardware manufacturers are still producing and the hash rate is still climbing. 

There are not even large Institutional investments being done on major trading platforms for Bitcoin trades to take such a massive hit? Most investors are private individuals and professional traders trading with their own capital. 

The only logical explanation are that people are liquidating their Bitcoin investments to stock up on facial masks and survival gear.    I think we should buy stocks in those companies now, because they are booming now!!

[Hydrogen]

I have also heard of people getting the virus from unknown sources. I guess the virus is much more widespread than it is being portrayed.

It was said the virus can survive for 3 days on surfaces. Overnight or 2nd day air freight could be potential paths of infection. It could be difficult to stem the tide of pandemic in a world where we've become very reliant upon global commerce and trade. Shipping lanes alone could spread the virus to every corner of the earth.

I can understand why stocks and commodity prices are dropping, because companies are closing and production are going down, but why should this virus have such a huge influence on the Bitcoin price?

Are you sure about that? To me it seems that cryptocurrencies are acting exactly like stocks and are treated the same by people. People are selling all investmenst and turning it all into money because they think they might need money in case of emergency.

I think its 100% market manipulation that both US stocks and bitcoin are crashing the way they are.

There is perhaps evidence for it.

Not certain if I should comment. No doubt many people know what happened. But I don't see anyone discussing it. And so I won't mention it, either. Unless someone asks.

On a superficial level, an observer might take note of how US stocks continued to edge higher even as news of corona virus in china broke. Almost as if the goal were to deliberately overvalue US stocks in order to drop the market from a greater height with the end goal of creating a more spectacular crash and more demoralized bear market in the aftermath.

There aren't many parties in the world with the raw liquidity and capital necessary to orchestrate the type of market manipulation we see in the crash and in some bitcoin crashes as well. I think people may eventually figure it out. Even if they do not know the answer today.