Don't Panic Yet, Bitcoin Analysis.

[mikeywith]

It has been a while since I posted any analysis on the forum, probably a good time now.

Today's drop was tragic and probably took many people by surprise, I personally did not see that coming, but I always like to plan ahead of time and be prepared for all possible scenarios.




The chart above contains the two most important moving averages on the weekly chart of btc/usd, the 20 and the 200 moving averages, clear as day when price closes below the 20MA (blue) we enter a down a trend and quite often head to the 200 MA ( purple ), currently the weekly 200 MA is at $5524, by no means bitcoin should close below that, because if it does then IMO it will very likely print a lower-low below $3000.

Selling now at these prices is a dumb move because chances are the 200MA will hold as it always did for 6 years now, but bouncing back of the 200MA which is very likely is not a clear sign of a bull market unless a weekly candle closes above the 20MA we are still bearish.
 
I highly doubt any considerable rebound prior to the halving, maybe going back to the 7.5 - 8k range and that's it, the reason I think so is not the coronavirus but rather the market rules and structure, it's normal for the majority of people to lose money, bitcoin is no difference, now everybody is expecting to get rich because the price is supposedly going to the moon right after the halving but that IMO will not happen this time.

You might argue that it happened every other previous halving, that's true and there is no denial in that, but you and almost everyone else did not see that coming, back in 2016 there were probably only a handful of people thinking that the halving was going to cause price increase, while the majority thought bitcoin was going to die, nobody expected the 20k and so it happened, now everyone is expecting it, it simply not going to happen because no market will allow the average Joe to make money this easily.

I hope I have not created any more fud/panic, it's to my best interest that BTC price goes to $100,000 next week, but after being wrong so many times, i have to live with the fact that I am not special, I don't control the market and I have to always be ready for the worse.

TL;DR
-a Weekly close above 200SMA with a long wick(very good news) > a correction to the upside is most likely.
-a weekly close above 200SMA with no wick(Good news) > sideways market before a major correction or another potential dip.
-a Weekly close below 200SMA (Terrible News) > Most likely heading towards 3k again.

The scenario that has the highest probability of happening IMO would be the second one, we are likely to close the week above the 200SMA, go into a sideway action for a few weeks.


I would love to hear other trader's opinions, permabulls and permabears are not welcome.  

[hatshepsut93]

You might argue that it happened every other previous halving, that's true and there is no denial in that, but you and almost everyone else did not see that coming, back in 2016 there were probably only a handful of people thinking that the halving was going to cause price increase, while the majority thought bitcoin was going to die, nobody expected the 20k and so it happened, now everyone is expecting it, it simply not going to happen because no market will allow the average Joe to make money this easily.

I think there will definitely be a bull market after the halvening, maybe it will start after 0.5-1 years after that date or even later, but I'm sure we'll see a new ATH, but I doubt it will be the $100,000 promised by perma-bulls, my guess is that it will be $30,000-40,000 or in my most optimistic scenario it will be $60,000. And as for the near future, we'll likely see the same thing that happened recently - longer period of stagnation, then a few bullish weak until we meet resistance and fail to overcome it. Seems like this is becoming a new Bitcoin trend.

[fabiorem]

I believe a bull market will only kick in 2022, that is, two years after the halving.

FA got busted, and the StF ratio (which was the pillar of the hodler's creed) was manipulated and pushed ahead, which invalidated the 4-year cycle model. So we will see these swings for quite some time yet, going from 5k to 15k and back.

[TravelMug]

Yes, I'm sure everyone was caught by surprised seeing the market goes down hard including bitcoin -20%-25% in just matter of days.

Comparing it though to the prior halving in 2016, we didn't have this kind of worst case scenario. Back then it was just fud and speculation that fuel the market down before the halving. But this time, it's very different, we have the corona virus to take into consideration and we have seen the effects already. So if we are going to go the next bubble after this year's block halving, I'm guessing it could be 2021-2022.

[GreatArkansas]

]
CHART NOW:
$4,900 already broken. Almost 50% lost within 24hours. Very bad for Bitcoin.
Again, if we zoom out and identify the horizontal supports, for me, our next stop if incase we will still go down is the lowest price after we reach $19,000 last 2017-2018 which are around $3,200+.
Jeez, this is really devastating.
To avoid panic; avoid observing the chart for these days. Panic sellers are everywhere. This is also good for everyone (like me) who want to buy again at a lower price.

[AakZaki]

~snip~
Jeez, this is really devastating.
To avoid panic; avoid observing the chart for these days. Panic sellers are everywhere. This is also good for everyone (like me) who want to buy again at a lower price.

Seeing a long red candle like that is terrible, but to trace I do not need to experience panic.
Is not it in 2018 when bitcoin reached ATH then a few months later reached its lowest price of 3100 $ + we still buy it.

Today the price of Bitcoin has reached the MA200 as a long-term decline goal, here I am sure that the MA200 will not break, but there must be a reflection of the price in this MA200.
So keep waiting and see.

[jadenunderhill]

~snip~
Jeez, this is really devastating.
To avoid panic; avoid observing the chart for these days. Panic sellers are everywhere. This is also good for everyone (like me) who want to buy again at a lower price.

Seeing a long red candle like that is terrible, but to trace I do not need to experience panic.
Is not it in 2018 when bitcoin reached ATH then a few months later reached its lowest price of 3100 $ + we still buy it.

Today the price of Bitcoin has reached the MA200 as a long-term decline goal, here I am sure that the MA200 will not break, but there must be a reflection of the price in this MA200.
So keep waiting and see.

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value. 

[bgaf]

I believe a bull market will only kick in 2022, that is, two years after the halving.

FA got busted, and the StF ratio (which was the pillar of the hodler's creed) was manipulated and pushed ahead, which invalidated the 4-year cycle model. So we will see these swings for quite some time yet, going from 5k to 15k and back.

Two years isnt enough I guess for a huge break down. TA will probably useless for now, as the market swing is quite fast and its support has been modified continously. I am not so experience but seeing a pattern like this, is remembering the 2018 cycle.

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value. 

Right now at 5k again, 30mins passed and still kicking some huge pushed. Thinking of some whales started to move again.

[jadenunderhill]

I believe a bull market will only kick in 2022, that is, two years after the halving.

FA got busted, and the StF ratio (which was the pillar of the hodler's creed) was manipulated and pushed ahead, which invalidated the 4-year cycle model. So we will see these swings for quite some time yet, going from 5k to 15k and back.

Two years isnt enough I guess for a huge break down. TA will probably useless for now, as the market swing is quite fast and its support has been modified continously. I am not so experience but seeing a pattern like this, is remembering the 2018 cycle.

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value. 

Right now at 5k again, 30mins passed and still kicking some huge pushed. Thinking of some whales started to move again.

Or it is the dead cat bounce and a final capitulation is about to start..

[Free1bitco.in]

the current price has been a low price since 2020. Well, this makes people surprised and panicked because, in just a few days, the price of bitcoin reached its lowest point. honestly, I am not so panicked about this, because I still believe that prices will recover due to encouragement from halving. but, I might be a little pessimistic about the price of bitcoin which will recover this year. Well, I agree with the statement above that it is likely that the price of bitcoin will recover in 2021-2022. especially when the covid-19 virus is finished.

[mikeywith]

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value. 

This is is not how it works, you can't take a moving average on the weekly time frame and say it was broken because a candle on the 4 or 1 hour chart closed below it, we need to wait until sunday for the weekly candle to close, the rest is just noise.

[exstasie]

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value. 

Bulls broke back above it just now. We might have to chop above and below it a few times before the market confirms it as support for good.

The prospects for a full on V-bottom look decent. We saw insanely high volume exchanged. Capitulation occurred for sure and shorts piled on massively. We just need bulls to follow through now and trap sellers below $6K.

Based on volume and magnitude, this selloff looks like the January 2015 capitulation. A true old school BTC capitulation. I hope nobody around here managed to sell in the $3,000s.

[AakZaki]

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value. 

In my opinion it's not part of the MA200 broken, it just touched and slightly fell past the MA200.  If you want to say the MA200 is broken you need to see the candle next week, if it continues to be passed and the price continues to fall then you say the MA200 is broken.

Some of my analysis on the MA200 is part of the barrier, I myself am not sure if it continues to be bypassed.

[jadenunderhill]

MA200 was already broken couple hours ago. Coinbase shows 3867 as the lowest value. 

In my opinion it's not part of the MA200 broken, it just touched and slightly fell past the MA200.  If you want to say the MA200 is broken you need to see the candle next week, if it continues to be passed and the price continues to fall then you say the MA200 is broken.

Some of my analysis on the MA200 is part of the barrier, I myself am not sure if it continues to be bypassed.

Hope U are right. But I'm not so optimistic( Even if it will stand for now, there will be few months of world financial crysis with bearish markets everywhere.

[tbterryboy]

I doubt that we can call it a weekly before week ends. However, the fact is price actually moved towards a place where we were half expecting it to go down if things get sour. The trouble here is the fact that there was a huge sale, that means it might be nothing related to analysis or nothing related to charts and ma200 or anything at all. It could be simply just a rich dude selling a lot of bitcoins they had to buy more stocks just as when it dropped.

Remember not everything in crypto is actually calculated moves, some of them just happens out of nowhere and shocks the whole world. Maybe that is one of the reasons why it moved all the way down to 3600 but moved back up, it wasn't a predicted move but nobody really thought the price would stay there all the time and bought it right away.

[fabiorem]

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

[jadenunderhill]

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Not sure that even 3K will be a final stop this time.

[fiulpro]

The thing is , we haven't yet reached the Halving and sooner or later the price is going to climb up really fast and panic selling would only make things worse for you , you will loose money and at the same time you will feel real bad when you see the price climb up. 
The good thing is things will pass , you just got to have patience and stop looking at the price of bitcoins time and again .
This just makes situations worse.
Just calm down and hold for long time.

[exstasie]

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Link? Peter Brandt is known for selling his followers down the river.

This is what I was getting at in my discussion of "what kind of bear market is this?" You assume it means lower lows and endless carnage, $3K and beyond. There is a distinct possibility we are in a long term sideways formation. I think you are ignoring that and have been for a very long time.

Watching the market reach $3,850 then V-bottom, and still expecting $3K.......I suspect that prediction will not age well, but let's wait and see how the weekly candle closes in relation to the 200-week MA. Bulls are not out of the woods yet.

[fabiorem]

Dead cat bounce, bitcoin is going back to $3k. Small traders are selling now.
Its not panic, people want to buy cheaper after Peter Brandt prediction.

Not sure that even 3K will be a final stop this time.

I would be cautious with any shorting. Governments are printing money to cover the crashes and this might reach bitcoin sooner or later.