Don't Panic Yet, Bitcoin Analysis.

[FanEagle]

It doesn't take a genius to realize that there are resistance levels and there are support levels and you can see where the biggest support levels are and you can act accordingly. If you are a whale and you want to buy cheap what could you do to make sure the price goes down so that you can buy a lot of bitcoins for cheap but you do not go down too much that everyone else starts buying as well? You check the support levels. The $3k or $3.2k to be more precise is a support level where everyone and their mother would buy bitcoin at that price.

So, what makes sense for a whale to buy cheaper? They could make it $3.5k and then let it go up while buying as much as they can, if they do this multiple times they will have shit ton of bitcoin while others are still waiting for the support level.

[mikeywith]

That may be debatable. The internals of Wave 3 are questionable, which is why I've always rejected that count.

There are no invalidations in Wave 3, I agree that the wave is not perfect, especially the way "they" count (ii) in the said wave but as far as structures are concerned, nothing really invalidates the wave count, if you see any invalidations, please point them out, I am far from an expert with EW.

I see it as plausible but not the highest probability outcome. I also agree with Masterluc that it's part of Historical Wave IV, not a bearish supercycle yet.

It does make sense.

but I also think the ultimate low is probably in. V-bottoms are rarely retested, especially in BTC. I doubt we can reach that level of panic again.

Speaking of large time frames (weekly and monthly) the only previous similar situation we had with double bottom formation was the 2015 capitulation period, that was not a perfect double-bottom but we had a wick go below the body of the previous candle, which in hour case should have been the $3600 level, but we did dip to as low as $3700 on some exchanges, so you are right, as far as double-bottom this could be it.

That could change if global markets enter another panic and this morphs into a 2008 crisis. For now, as crazy as it sounds, I still think markets are in the beginning of a stabilization period, on the cusp of a relief rally like the post-Black Monday rally in late October and early November 1987.

I wish I had half the optimism you got because I think we are not even halfway to misery as far as the global economy is cornered, today alone the U.S had over 5000 new Corona cases, the same number in Italy, sadly Italy lost 627 people today to the virus, and if you look at the Coronavirus chart you can easily see an uptrend of nearly 90 degrees, I know for certain that China was the best country to handle the virus, and I can only assume that things will be worse everywhere else, no vaccine seems to be coming next week, our bodies don't seem to be developing any new method to fight the virus, I don't want to spread fear, but things don't look promising at all, sadly.  

As far as TA is concerned, I am keeping a close eye on everything, the monthly candle has a lot to tell as well, I will take any close above 6.4k as a good sign on the monthly timeframe, and weekly close above 200MA is as good, a weekly close above 20MA and I will become bullish, close above 10.5k and a retest, I will be super bullish, but I think all of that is wishful thinking because the most likely scenario, for now IMO is this > 6.1k-6.4k is major resistance and we are unlikely going to break it, we head back to make a lower low below 3.1k, everyone and their grandmother loses hope in bitcoin, range between 2k and 4k for a few months, and then start a new bull cycle.

I will not be trading based on that scenario, that's a very large picture, I am sticking to the short/midterm in my trading, but it's a scenario that worth to be highly considered and prepared for, what we have now is everyone thinking the halving will change everything and take us to new ATH, everyone thinks making money is easy, buy bitcoin before the halving, become rich after the halving, but we know that markets don't work this way, it needs to eliminate those people first and thus, the scenario above is not any less likely to happen than any other scenario.

Let's watch the 200MA and the weekly candle's close in 2 days.

[BrewMaster]

all the panic that we had over that past week has only postponed the big rallies of 2020 that are inevitable. like always the panic was only a short lived one while the weak hands made it bigger than it could have been predicted.
you don't need to be an "analyst" to see the potential of bitcoin and the way it has been growing in adoption this past 2 months in multiple countries around the world as they officially accepted it as a legal currency.

[Searing]

In my view, the BTC price will only 'stabilize' at whatever price that may be when the US Stock Market finally dumps to around 1/2 of its previous value before
this Pandemic crisis. At that point, IMHO, people will go 'what the hell' and simply have to HODL and bet on Capitalism and the economy recovering. To think
anything else right or wrong will be beyond their conception....thus that will be the HODL point for fiat. Of course a few more trillion $$ will be tossed in the
pot to stabilize this at that 1/2 way loss point. But this is how I see this all playing out as BTC worth via Fiat worth.
When/If above happens, then IMHO, BTC will start to act as a store of value...even if only sideways from whatever price it is when the above happens.

[exstasie]

That may be debatable. The internals of Wave 3 are questionable, which is why I've always rejected that count.

There are no invalidations in Wave 3, I agree that the wave is not perfect, especially the way "they" count (ii) in the said wave but as far as structures are concerned, nothing really invalidates the wave count, if you see any invalidations, please point them out, I am far from an expert with EW.

You see how the Wave 3 has 7 swings? There should only be 5, or 9 if one of the sub-waves was extended.

Speaking of large time frames (weekly and monthly) the only previous similar situation we had with double bottom formation was the 2015 capitulation period, that was not a perfect double-bottom but we had a wick go below the body of the previous candle, which in hour case should have been the $3600 level, but we did dip to as low as $3700 on some exchanges, so you are right, as far as double-bottom this could be it.

You know how in January 2015 we went to $150 but in August 2015 the market stopped at $200? That's what I mean about no double bottom. I think the $3,850 low may be our January 2015.

That could change if global markets enter another panic and this morphs into a 2008 crisis. For now, as crazy as it sounds, I still think markets are in the beginning of a stabilization period, on the cusp of a relief rally like the post-Black Monday rally in late October and early November 1987.

I wish I had half the optimism you got because I think we are not even halfway to misery as far as the global economy is cornered, today alone the U.S had over 5000 new Corona cases, the same number in Italy, sadly Italy lost 627 people today to the virus, and if you look at the Coronavirus chart you can easily see an uptrend of nearly 90 degrees, I know for certain that China was the best country to handle the virus, and I can only assume that things will be worse everywhere else, no vaccine seems to be coming next week, our bodies don't seem to be developing any new method to fight the virus, I don't want to spread fear, but things don't look promising at all, sadly.  

It's not about whether the pandemic will get worse. Of course it will. It's about when the resulting economic contraction gets priced in and the panic stops because the outlook has been normalized.

There's no real way to quantify whether the stock market should fall 30% or 60% or whatever else. At this point, it's less about fundamentals and more about sentiment. If/when the West turns a corner like China, there will be a solid market recovery, even if we know infections will continue to rise in the coming months.

[mikeywith]

You see how the Wave 3 has 7 swings? There should only be 5, or 9 if one of the sub-waves was extended.

This does not validate the count, looking at it on the monthly chart, the only thing that is not perfect is the length of wave 2 in wave 3, regardless of how you try to count it, as I said it is not a perfect wave but the wave still meets all rules of a correct Eliot wave.

You know how in January 2015 we went to $150 but in August 2015 the market stopped at $200? That's what I mean about no double bottom. I think the $3,850 low may be our January 2015.

Yup, that is exactly what I just said, without using the levels.

It's not about whether the pandemic will get worse. Of course it will. It's about when the resulting economic contraction gets priced in and the panic stops because the outlook has been normalized.

Agreed but I still think we have a long way to go for panic to stop, that we had so far is merely the pandemic effect, the global economy was going to collapse either way this will only speed things up.

Short term look at BTC, I see us going to $5100, and then $4600, was not planning to take such a trade, but I can't stop my itchy hands. 

[exstasie]

You see how the Wave 3 has 7 swings? There should only be 5, or 9 if one of the sub-waves was extended.

This does not validate the count, looking at it on the monthly chart, the only thing that is not perfect is the length of wave 2 in wave 3, regardless of how you try to count it, as I said it is not a perfect wave but the wave still meets all rules of a correct Eliot wave

The internal count seems invalid to me. Maybe this can be overlooked. It's not worth arguing over. Time will tell, but I prefer a count that better accounts for the price action in 2012:

You know how in January 2015 we went to $150 but in August 2015 the market stopped at $200? That's what I mean about no double bottom. I think the $3,850 low may be our January 2015.

Yup, that is exactly what I just said, without using the levels.

Cool, I wasn't sure from the wording.

Short term look at BTC, I see us going to $5100, and then $4600, was not planning to take such a trade, but I can't stop my itchy hands. 

Yes I see that too, and the bearish pre-market open on stocks supports that idea: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54077735#msg54077735

Measured move target is in the low $5,100s but as we know, BTC's lack of liquidity often takes the market beyond typical levels. I plan to close shorts there and then wait for an obvious bottom before buying back on spot.

If there is enough panic in the world markets, we could have another March 12th event that takes us below $3K. I'm still trying to be contrarian since everyone is expecting the worst, but things are admittedly looking pretty grim.