Notorious Bear Tone Vays: 90% chance $3,800 was the low

[dragonvslinux]

I'm 90% sure we're not going to be fall below $3,800.

Sharing Tone's perspective after the recent drop that he not only predicted, but was heavily criticized and mocked for.





Source: https://twitter.com/ToneVays/status/1238359552422273024

All Signs Point to this being the final capitulation of the 2 year Bear Market.

Accordingly, Vays set the chances of a fresh dive below $5,000 at 50%, given press time levels of $5,700:

Do I still think that we are going to fall below $5,000 one more time? The answer is: I actually do.

Conversely, the chances that BTC/USD had seen its floor this week were much higher — around 90%. Vays would only “panic” if markets hit $1,000, he added.

On the future, the message was simple:

The final capitulation has happened, the bear market is over, but the road back up will be harder than people realize.

Recent videos:
How Many Chances to Buy Under $5k Will There Be? - March 14th
The Bottom is Most Likely In! - March 13th
Big Crash in BTC, Let's Try to Make Sense of It - March 12th

[fabiorem]

He is right. The window only lasted for some minutes, the bounce was fast and agressive.

And like I explained in another post, below $3k is the zone of the previous cycle recovery and bull run.

[rdluffy]

I share on another thread:

According to Peter Brandt, BTC is still falling and could reach 1k
Read here: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-under-1k-is-possible-warns-veteran-trader-peter-brandt

I prefer to trust in 3800 for sure, and everything is pointing to that, but we have to know that everything is possible, and it's not so hard to be at sub 2k levels again

[exstasie]

Interesting choice having bottom bids at $2,750-$2,950. I think breaking the 2018 bottom would get much more bearish than that. If that happens, I'm open to the 2013 ATH range or even sub-$1K.

He is right. The window only lasted for some minutes, the bounce was fast and agressive.

I strongly agree there. That's what V-bottoms look like, an extremely high volume wick.

However I would really like to see an upside break from the present consolidation. Closing well above the 200-week MA (weekly close is 27 hours away) and trapping bottom sellers below this mode in the $5K-$6K area will seal the deal and confirm this dump as a historic V-bottom.

Until that happens, we are on shaky footing.

[Botnake]

I wish he is correct but the market right now is still not stable, the bears are here and bitcoin might fall below $5000 again, and with another huge dump, I am afraid next stop would be below $4000. Not a fan of following predictions by the experts, but I would be happy if he is correct, besides I would just accumulate again if that happens.

[noormcs5]

He is right. The window only lasted for some minutes, the bounce was fast and agressive.

And like I explained in another post, below $3k is the zone of the previous cycle recovery and bull run.

It was very strange to know that bitcoin fell to 3800$. I could not even imagine this bitcoin price in 2020. However, i hope we will not touch this number again. Do you think as soon as the global threat of Covid-19 is over, bitcoin will jump as fast as it is dumped ?

[fabiorem]

He is right. The window only lasted for some minutes, the bounce was fast and agressive.

And like I explained in another post, below $3k is the zone of the previous cycle recovery and bull run.

It was very strange to know that bitcoin fell to 3800$. I could not even imagine this bitcoin price in 2020. However, i hope we will not touch this number again. Do you think as soon as the global threat of Covid-19 is over, bitcoin will jump as fast as it is dumped ?

The dump was not caused by Covid-19, it was caused by Bitmex.
Covid-19 can go away, but not Bitmex. Because some cucks believe in something they call "freedom", and they think that having some controls in place is "tyranny".

So, no, I dont think the price will jump quickly to where it was before. It will take a long time to see $10k again. I believe we will not see $10k this year, and bitcoin will never see a ATH again.
Being a long-term holder (since 2015), I'm going to change my strategies and sell a part of my stash when bitcoin arrives at $10k, probably next year.

This bear market will last for at least five years, and might be even permanent, since its being guided by derivatives. The price will bounce between $4k and $12k. There will be no more ATH, no adoption by merchants, no safe haven against the fiat system.

[michellee]

I wish he is correct but the market right now is still not stable, the bears are here and bitcoin might fall below $5000 again, and with another huge dump, I am afraid next stop would be below $4000. Not a fan of following predictions by the experts, but I would be happy if he is correct, besides I would just accumulate again if that happens.

That could be true. We almost touch the $4,000 level price, so the chance to see another down will be possible. But we hope that the situations are not getting worst because if the price is down below $5,000, many traders will be panic, and I cannot imagine what will happen with the market. Maybe not only bitcoin will lose the price, but the altcoin will also get the same things. We have to wait for the next month, and we hope that the price will be back at a higher price.

[The Cryptovator]

The dump was not caused by Covid-19, it was caused by Bitmex.

Personally I won't be agree with you on that case. Just forget about others previous dump, but recent dump I believe happened for huge cash out from bitcoin. Most of peoples need real cash now due to global crisis. Like this people become more panic means more dump. I know it's not going to recover very soon till global economy reverse to previous stage. I am waiting to buy back on $3K zone.

[Free1bitco.in]

I wish he is correct but the market right now is still not stable, the bears are here and bitcoin might fall below $5000 again, and with another huge dump, I am afraid next stop would be below $4000. Not a fan of following predictions by the experts, but I would be happy if he is correct, besides I would just accumulate again if that happens.

the potential exists today, but all of these predictions might change when the corona problem is over. however, I also believe that prices could be under $ 5,000 right now. Well, maybe for those who really believe this, the best step to take is to hold assets in the form of stable coins or fiat.

[pooya87]

i hate people like him who always come out with their bullshit during a price drop like this. i still remember last year when price was heading towards $4k+ he was insisting that the "winter" is not over yet and price should fall down more even though there was every indication of the drops being long over and the price at that time being unnaturally below the actual value.

the fact right now is that nobody can predict this market since the movements are not explainable. we might as wee see the COVID-19 situation get worsen in US (which is the likely scenario as stats are exactly like Italy) and the stock market crashes even harder, that can continue the panic in bitcoin and causes more drop for no reason again or this all could end when people realize bitcoin has nothing to do with any of the things going on in the world and we can see the rise and the FOMO begin soon.

[Jating]

He is right. The window only lasted for some minutes, the bounce was fast and agressive.

And like I explained in another post, below $3k is the zone of the previous cycle recovery and bull run.

Right, I was scrambling to buy at cheap price, just waiting for some fiat, unfortunately, I wasn't able to ride as the price quickly bounce back from -46% to -31% and price going above $5k. That was really a great opportunity to get some cheap coins and hold and wait for the eventual bull-run, sadly I was late.

It it goes down, sub $5k again, then definitely I will buy small portions and see how it goes. Not that I wanted to see the price to go down again, but it will present another perfect opportunity, another chance to scoop BTC.

[exstasie]

i hate people like him who always come out with their bullshit during a price drop like this.

"Even a broken clock is right twice a day."

He deserves his day in the sun. He doesn't get to be right very often!

the fact right now is that nobody can predict this market since the movements are not explainable. we might as wee see the COVID-19 situation get worsen in US (which is the likely scenario as stats are exactly like Italy) and the stock market crashes even harder, that can continue the panic in bitcoin

The Corona virus situation will worsen in the coming weeks but there's a decent chance it's already been priced in by the 30% stock market crash. The crash is all about fear, emotion, psychology and not so much about the actual logistics of a global slowdown. That's why they say markets are irrational. So the real question is "is the panic over yet?" If it's like 1987, then yes. If it's like 2008, then no. People seem to be expecting the worst now. As a contrarian, that tells me the worst is probably over already.

[buwaytress]

Wait, Tone is a bear? I always thought he was one in the same gang as all the others predicting all kinds of prices. Which, if I recall correctly, were pretty bullish as it comes?

And yeah, like pooya says, why should he come out like this AFTER the fact? His genius should have shone through before this, when others were calling it much, much higher lows. Boo Toney =p

[Lucius]

A statement like this is just playing with numbers, nothing more than that. 90% is something that is pretty safe, but he still thinks it can go a lot lower, which I agree with.

Considering the situation from the outset, it's not hard to see that the first major impact came on the stock market (about $5 trillion wiped out), but in same time BTC remained almost intact. The second strike was much more serious, and followed the announcement by the WHO of declaring a world pandemic resulting in a sharp fall in oil prices (20%) and BitMex forced liquidation.

Today we have the result of all this, with the catastrophic situation in Italy and also Spain concerning COVID-19. In fact, the whole of Europe is becoming what China was a month and a half ago - but the EU is still not giving up on open border policy, which only worsens the situation.

I would say that there is a 90% chance that this is not even close to over, but that the Italian scenario can be repeated in all major countries in the EU, and also in the USA.

[dragonvslinux]

Interesting choice having bottom bids at $2,750-$2,950. I think breaking the 2018 bottom would get much more bearish than that. If that happens, I'm open to the 2013 ATH range or even sub-$1K.

Not my first choice of bids either, I have a feeling he's expecting a 2015 style fakeout, where price breaks below the lows and traps the bears (at least on some exchanges). The likelihood of this happening again (in this exact manner) I find very unlikely, mainly because this particular bear market is clearly very different to 2015 (despite some comparisons). But his main argument is that he doesn't think price will break below $2,500, which I tend to agree with, so the risk/reward is definitely there long-term.

He's also said he's willing to sell the positions at a loss if prices break $1,500 

i hate people like him who always come out with their bullshit during a price drop like this.

He deserves his day in the sun. He doesn't get to be right very often!

It's true   At least he knows this though! He admits he's better off trading stocks instead of Bitcoin  

Wait, Tone is a bear? I always thought he was one in the same gang as all the others predicting all kinds of prices. Which, if I recall correctly, were pretty bullish as it comes?

Yeh, not a perma-bear, but has been bearish 95%+ of the time since 2018. Last year he bought $4K and sold at $5K expecting it to correct, then continued to be bearish until $14K. Arguably you could say he was "right" because price did re-test $4K levels eventually, as he was expecting last year, but in reality he missed out on an entire mini-bull run.

Also sold part of his hodl position prematurely around $6K levels, again last year, before price went twice as high  

Fortunately my signature doesn't prevent me from criticizing him  

[exstasie]

I would say that there is a 90% chance that this is not even close to over, but that the Italian scenario can be repeated in all major countries in the EU, and also in the USA.

Of course it's not close to over. Anyone who has lived through past pandemics know that. But how do we turn that into price analysis?

If cases of infection keep rising, it's not going to keep linearly affecting the stock market. Everybody already expects it to get worse now so it should be ~ priced in. The crash occurred because nobody expected the pandemic, or they underestimated the effects. Now the tables have completely turned. Literally every person I know in the entire world is worried about the corona virus. Consequently the stock market has already crashed 30%.

What is not priced in? The possibility that the corona virus is like every other FUD pandemic (SARS, swine flu, avian flu) and is being blown out of proportion. Once that reality starts sinking in, I think markets will go back to climbing a wall of worry, and lots of retail investors will have sold the bottom.

[bitbunnny]

I wish he is correct but the market right now is still not stable, the bears are here and bitcoin might fall below $5000 again, and with another huge dump, I am afraid next stop would be below $4000. Not a fan of following predictions by the experts, but I would be happy if he is correct, besides I would just accumulate again if that happens.

I also don't like to follow predictions and generaly they do more harm than good.
However, I think it's possible that this time Bitcoin price goes below 4000$. Maybe not in the next week, price will probably continue to fluctuate around 5000$ but after that anything it's possible.
Even if price goes below 4000$ I wouldn't consider that as a tragedy but as a new opportunity to buy more coins and the price will recover again.

[GreatArkansas]

He probably loaded his bags on the recent 50% drop, maybe he bought around $4,000 part.
Also some people told that that below $4,000 drops are fake and it's just because of derivatives trading exchange just like Bitmex.
Jeez, it's really awful when you saw how the drop goes and all you can do is to watch only since you don't have any extra money to buy more Bitcoins.

[malevolent]

If the coronovarius is going to keep warranting serious responses such as limited social contact for extended periods of time and going out only to buy food then most worldwide stock markets will keep on crashing (and what we've witnessed in the past week was just the beginning), and they will take Bitcoin with them. If almost every industry except maybe the food industry starts suffering from heavily reduced demand, Bitcoin, too, will suffer. Maybe the halving will be a fuel for a little bit of optimism but I'd be prepared for the worst.