Notorious Bear Tone Vays: 90% chance $3,800 was the low

[Wilhelm]

If the coronovarius is going to keep warranting serious responses such as limited social contact and going out only to buy food then most worldwide stock markets will keep on crashing (and what we've witnessed in the past week was just the beginning), and they will take Bitcoin with them. Maybe the halving will be a fuel for a little bit of optimism but I'd be prepared for the worst.

Corona is only delaying the growth of bitcoin by a month or two.

[malevolent]

Corona is only delaying the growth of bitcoin by a month or two.

If things start going back to normal after several weeks then it might not be that bad, but so far more and more countries are introducing stricter measures aimed at minimizing human contact. If the USA follows most of Europe in the next 1-2 weeks I'd expect further losses on the stock market and that will spillover into BTC.

[exstasie]

If the coronovarius is going to keep warranting serious responses such as limited social contact and going out only to buy food then most worldwide stock markets will keep on crashing (and what we've witnessed in the past week was just the beginning), and they will take Bitcoin with them. Maybe the halving will be a fuel for a little bit of optimism but I'd be prepared for the worst.

Corona is only delaying the growth of bitcoin by a month or two.

What makes you so confident?

The panic in world markets seems overblown given the trajectory of past pandemics, and the fact that the corona virus is looking less and less deadly.

What scares me is this: The Fed just slashed interest rates and announced QE. What did the futures markets do? They dumped on the news instead of relief rallying! That's true bear market behavior. Seems like the panic isn't over yet.

BTC has never lived through a 2008-style crash. If that's where we are heading, I think BTC is in for more than a month or two of bearishness. The last month of price action shows we can't afford to ignore the global economy.

[pooya87]

~
Corona is only delaying the growth of bitcoin by a month or two.

What makes you so confident?

it seems to me that all the drama started from US as soon as the stock market started tanking hard after the number of infected people started growing. and since the growth in US is surprisingly similar to growth in Italy and China we can expect this to continue in the same path and it will plateau in about a month or two (it took 2 months in China to plateau) which could be the start of reaching bottoms and end of panic/manipulation.  by which time things go back to normal and the rise begins.

[Lucius]

The panic in world markets seems overblown given the trajectory of past pandemics, and the fact that the corona virus is looking less and less deadly.

Less and less deadly, where, in China? Well look at the situation in Italy, almost 2000 people have died and 200-300 new people die every day, and this is just a start of something that (based on China case) can last at least 2-3 months. Spain is next to repeat almost the same scenario, and I do not see how Germany and France can avoid the same.

The whole world is becoming one big quarantine, there is a total sale of stocks, gold, cryptocurrency everywhere. At this moment I do not see that BTC has any level below which it can not go - it is a free fall with a temporary delays.

I watch Trump last night when he annunciate Fed slashed interest rates, and in just few minutes BTC price jumped 10%, but even such an incentive measure cannot move the market in a positive direction, easy up and easy down -15% today.

[buwaytress]

Yeh, not a perma-bear, but has been bearish 95%+ of the time since 2018. Last year he bought $4K and sold at $5K expecting it to correct, then continued to be bearish until $14K. Arguably you could say he was "right" because price did re-test $4K levels eventually, as he was expecting last year, but in reality he missed out on an entire mini-bull run.

Also sold part of his hodl position prematurely around $6K levels, again last year, before price went twice as high  

Fortunately my signature doesn't prevent me from criticizing him  

I knew he was one of the more vocal ones, and frequently too, didn't know he actually traded as well.

And you point out perfectly how everyone's predictions can be right at some point, if you cherry pick and selectively alter timeframes. I know all about those pro whale traders who claim to be in the know -- cause I very stupidly paid for expensive subscriptions in the past, so made double losses: lost out on subscription, AND made losing trades.

P.S. Got me curious about your signatures;)

[exstasie]

The panic in world markets seems overblown given the trajectory of past pandemics, and the fact that the corona virus is looking less and less deadly.

Less and less deadly, where, in China? Well look at the situation in Italy, almost 2000 people have died and 200-300 new people die every day, and this is just a start of something that (based on China case) can last at least 2-3 months.

You realize hundreds of thousands of people die from the common flu every year, right? None of the numbers are that alarming, especially as the winter winds down.

Data on asymptomatic cases is poor. In the initial stages of the swine flu outbreak, mortality rates like 7% were being thrown around too. In the end, it was closer to 0.2% once testing became robust and asymptomatic cases were accounted for. That's where the current pandemic is likely to end too.

Are cases going to continue to rise? Yes and it's really not the end of the world. People just need to get used to the idea instead of running around like chickens with their heads cut off.

[malevolent]

This coronavirus spreads faster than the common flu and seems to be more deadly. There are other concerns, such as potential mutations bringing even more chaos.

[STT]

No the most deadly element to the virus is the duality to it.    You can have it and its nothing at all to you, because you are young or whatever factor some shake it off personally yet propagate it to others.   Some of the others will go terminal, cannot be helped and die in quite short order.   

Thats quite terrifying in effect I guess.    Hence isolation and the effort to delay the spread otherwise its like 18% of certain age groups will be gone.   That % for countries overall varies but places like Japan half their country is old and in danger.

[exstasie]

This coronavirus spreads faster than the common flu and seems to be more deadly. There are other concerns, such as potential mutations bringing even more chaos.

It's complicated. Asymptomatic cases are now recognized as a major driver of the pandemic: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

While it may spread more easily than most forms of the flu, this new data suggests the mortality rate is being very drastically overestimated. The mortality rate draws only on confirmed cases and deaths (high risk symptomatic cases) while asymptomatic or mild cases are going completely under the radar in extreme numbers.

This is hard to speculate about, but given the flurry of new information on asymptomatic cases and the general trajectory of mortality estimates (see the swine flu example earlier) it's not much more deadly than the seasonal flu. I would guess the current estimates will drop by an order of magnitude, closer to 0.3-0.4% (maybe even lower) rather than 3-4%.

On average, seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1 percent of people who become infected. The 1918 flu had an unusually high fatality rate, around 2 percent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html

The difference in effects on young vs. old populations may complicate things however. There are still lots of unknowns, and I assume that's why people are so fearful and expecting the worst.

[FanEagle]

When even Tone Vays says that the bottom has been reached, you know bottom has been reached. I have previously said many times that we will not see under 5k ever again and we have seen it so I was wrong. However, as you can see even when we dropped under 5k it was for only few hours and we have recovered from that and moved up once again which shows that there was a lot of people like me who imagined under 5k was not a fair price for bitcoin and directly bought as much as they can which brought the price higher.

I don't know if we can call this fall really a fall because it wasn't really staying there for too long, it increased up really high very quickly. I still think under 5k is not a thing for bitcoin anymore, it may drop like this to go back up very quickly but I am sure it won't last long.

[malevolent]

It's complicated. Asymptomatic cases are now recognized as a major driver of the pandemic: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

While it may spread more easily than most forms of the flu, this new data suggests the mortality rate is being very drastically overestimated. The mortality rate draws only on confirmed cases and deaths (high risk symptomatic cases) while asymptomatic or mild cases are going completely under the radar in extreme numbers.

This is hard to speculate about, but given the flurry of new information on asymptomatic cases and the general trajectory of mortality estimates (see the swine flu example earlier) it's not much more deadly than the seasonal flu. I would guess the current estimates will drop by an order of magnitude, closer to 0.3-0.4% (maybe even lower) rather than 3-4%.

On average, seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1 percent of people who become infected. The 1918 flu had an unusually high fatality rate, around 2 percent.

Obituaries in a Bergamo newspaper are 3-5 times longer than usually:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-obituaries-bergamo-italy/2020/03/16/6c342f02-66c7-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html

On the Diamond Princess about half were asymptomatic. 1% of diagnosed cases there ended in deaths. 1% death rate, under an assumption that there is enough equipment and qualified medical staff, is a significant number, especially if this coronavirus might not be eradicated by summer's time, because then the death rate can quintuple.

[onrise]

If the coronovarius is going to keep warranting serious responses such as limited social contact and going out only to buy food then most worldwide stock markets will keep on crashing (and what we've witnessed in the past week was just the beginning), and they will take Bitcoin with them. Maybe the halving will be a fuel for a little bit of optimism but I'd be prepared for the worst.

Corona is only delaying the growth of bitcoin by a month or two.

The things may more get worst as now in this week there are many countries which have started to report the cases more significant and fastly then the previous weeks. Also, in coming weeks this numbers may just multiply if proper care or vaccine not found quickly and we may see more and more panic selling happening considering the past as how market reacts to some news etc. But it is always a good time to buy on the dips and it would be resolved in coming time as not here to stay permanent.

[Questat]

A new drop could be income, wow! so we are seeing another $3000 price here?

Possible considering the COVID-19 would take longer to eliminate, we need some cure if there's no cure the more people panic.
When people panic, we know what would happen, if the whales can create some panic by just feeding wrong information to the people, then how much more that we are witnessing a real life panic due to the pandemic.

I would say welcome $3000 in advance, not something we should be scared of though.

[imstillthebest]

nice . nice to hear that some experts are also agreing with my predictions  because my prediction says that this was the lowest bitcoin can get  . i monitored the price from time to time but no new hard dips are experienced so far    .

 this was a good news to me aside from the recovery of some patients on our own country that lately been got by corona virus    .  maybe the recovery of the people have a relation to the recovery or stableness of the value of btc and other cryptos  ?  hmm , that was also one of my theory    .

[carlisle1]

He missed 1000$ to be precise in his prediction but at least more Buyers felt like positive to take more in 3k$ level but they are all fail.

with worldwide affect of this Virus no wonder that we will still looking for another fall of $3,800 or lower nobody can stop the market.

This coronavirus spreads faster than the common flu and seems to be more deadly. There are other concerns, such as potential mutations bringing even more chaos.

and also Media gives all this to people ,the scare and panicking but just like what you said above in a month or so this Virus effect on Bitcoin price will end and the possible growth will Follow.

[Saisher]

He is right. The window only lasted for some minutes, the bounce was fast and agressive.

And like I explained in another post, below $3k is the zone of the previous cycle recovery and bull run.

Although it looks Tone lose in his debate against Heart I believe in his analysis he is good at figuring out things and it looks like he is correct on this one again, one thing I'm sure many are going to make a huge profit from this crash, but still depends on how we fought this Pandemic, the market is still open to anything.

[bitgolden]

Honestly, I still think that we have no idea what bitcoin can do. I still suspect there will be a bull run very soon because of many great things about to happen to bitcoin such as bitcoin halving, plus miners not being able to keep this going for too long and would have to stop their machines which would only mean that transactions will be more costly and would create some slowness and people would be willing to pay more which would result with those machines turning back on and prices going back up.

But aside from that, even the world economy can't collapse too much, we had 2008 before and we know world will not let that happen again and there will be solutions. So, I assume 3800 is a right amount, we may however go back down to that once again, we can live around this $6k to $6.8k levels for a little while.

[Febo]

We can only pray he is right. When predicting Bitcoin bottom in next year old charts are useless. He uses carts to predict future price. We might have huge shit in Europe and North America. I basicyl see teh onyl hope in Summer and that we somehow found vaccine before Winter. If that will not be the case, ......