Can we agree BTC is not a store of value?

[exstasie]

Nothing is a store of value at the moment. Global markets are down, gold, silver, copper and platinum are down, oil and gasoline are down, corn, wheat, cocoa, and coffee are down, futures are down, FTSE, CAC, DAX, IBEX, Hang Seng, Nikkei, Shanghai, RTS, ASX are all down.

Fiat currencies seem to be holding up just fine.

Everything is decimated at the moment, but the Fed have moved too early and are now out of ammo. They have nowhere to go from here other than printing even more money even faster than they already are, or negative interest rates, which will be a disaster for them.

I'll admit I'm concerned at how quickly the Fed slashed to zero rates and how little the markets reacted. At the same time, I see lots of parallels to the 1987 crash and my gut tells me the corona virus panic will subside soon.

[imstillthebest]

but who said it is  ? people and wanabe investors  ?  even the owner himself didnt mention anything related to it but he only claim that btc is a kind of digital currency  or can act as a payment method , nothing more nothing less  .

he didnt claim that its a form of store value because the owner already know that bitcoin will become volatile   but people then eventually labeled bitcoin as one it just because they see btc is increasing and sticking on its value for quite some time     . 

[Sadlife]

Nothing is set in stone, did you not notice that when the stocks fell and still continues to crash even today. Bitcoin also came down it's obvious to me that many stock traders and Institutional investors are heavily invested. If the current financial system falls down, with the bloody market they're experiencing and continues loses. They will surely look at Bitcoin as a good store if value.

[thesmallgod]

If you have stored your values in gold or even diamond, it would have been otherwise because the world is facing a global crisis and not the only bitcoin is affected but also other assets. The global stock markets are affected and this is what is trending since the rise of the coronavirus. I am sure if the price of bitcoin pumps up in a few days and goes above the peak it has reached this year, you will come here to say otherwise.

[Pffrt]

Other than GOLD every stock market and commodities have been affected by Corona. Gold was affected less because of its wide acceptance while BTC is not that widely accepted. I never used to see BTC as store of value although. It was always a currency to the inner me.
The recent drop was not only from the corona virus affect, there are some other issues which you must have to account before a calculation.

[Botnake]

Bitcoin is not stable, it's so volatile so we can't compare it with a proven asset like gold which is a good store of value.
However, as long as you don't sell your bitcoin and hold it long term, you'll never gonna lose money as history tells it has its bull period which gives the holders a good time to cash out.

Also, if you believe that adoption will increase in the long run, then we should not hesitate to consider it as a store of value as definitely the price will grow, due to strong adoption which would result to less manipulation by the whales.

[o_e_l_e_o]

Fiat currencies seem to be holding up just fine.

Maybe during the panic phase. People are pulling their money out of all these other falling markets, and so fiat gets an artificial boost. Most experts are now suggesting several months of lockdown, quarantines, school, college, university closures, bar, restaurant, club closures, etc. Retail industry collapse, service industry collapse, travel and tourism industries collapse. We are already seeing hundreds of thousands of jobs being lost and the shutdowns have barely even begun. Economies will start to tank and fiat currencies along with them.

my gut tells me the corona virus panic will subside soon.

The panic will subside soon as the novelty wears off, and the panic buying will subside as you can only hoard so much and a lot of people will soon be struggling for income. However, the virus and the shutdowns will not. This is expected to drag on for months.

[FlightyPouch]

However much you want it to be, BTC is NOT a store of value.  It has been a few years since $20K and even now, each peak is smaller than the previous peak.  Probably be $3K by the end of the week.

I think bitcoin being a store of value is still debatable despite its volatility. If we will be tracking the price changes over the years, you can still see that people will be having good profits despite the huge dumps. Now that the price is lower, people might take advantage of it so I don't think it will fall further to $3K. Right now, it is getting stable at $5K and then the halving is getting close so I think that would be the lowest this year.

[wozzek23]

Listen to this podcast.
https://unconfirmed.libsyn.com/coronavirus-how-it-will-impact-bitcoin-and-the-halving-ep116
However much you want it to be, BTC is NOT a store of value.  It has been a few years since $20K and even now, each peak is smaller than the previous peak.  Probably be $3K by the end of the week.

I’m sorry mate I am still not going to agree to that. What about gold? Everyone keeps saying that gold is a safe haven, but didn’t you see that the price of gold dropped from the over $57k and down to $45k or so (I think a bit above or less that). And yes Bitcoin was also affected, but does that make gold to be anything better than Bitcoin? No! They were both affected so they are probably the same.

If you’re looking for something that can be used as a means for store of value, you should go for whatever you want to use, anything can be used as a store value, as long as it works for you. They can’t be profitable at all times.

[AniviaBtc]

Not even gold is store of value in this climate, I’m watching at everything getting dumped and that’s absolutely out of this world, no logic behind what’s all the number ticking, but don’t be fooled, everything would adjusted to normal over the time amounting to weeks, months or even years, nobody can manipulate the true value of any asset forever.

The best thing to do is to invest a business so that you will not have a hard time manipulating your money. Also if you invest your money, although it is still uncertain, it depends on how you manage the business you started. Don't rely on BTC during times like this, but if your predictions are good and you can really think critically about what will happen in the near future, then you must really trust BTC. Everything is risky when money are involved so you need to be careful on your decisions and be responsible to your actions. BTC is somehow good as a store of value since 2017, but this time I think you should focus on other things and just hold all your bitcoin.

[exstasie]

Fiat currencies seem to be holding up just fine.

Maybe during the panic phase. People are pulling their money out of all these other falling markets, and so fiat gets an artificial boost. Most experts are now suggesting several months of lockdown, quarantines, school, college, university closures, bar, restaurant, club closures, etc. Retail industry collapse, service industry collapse, travel and tourism industries collapse. We are already seeing hundreds of thousands of jobs being lost and the shutdowns have barely even begun. Economies will start to tank and fiat currencies along with them.

That last sentence is a real stretch. Gold investors have been predicting this imminent collapse of fiat money for several decades, and BTC investors have been repeating the same thing ever since Bitcoin was launched. I'm skeptical. There is a big difference between an economic crash/recession and a currency collapse. You're exaggerating how easily the entire financial system can just collapse.

Regarding a market recovery or lack thereof, you're expecting the worst case scenario, as are most people. When I look around, it looks like peak hysteria. I'm not sure this panic can maintain much longer before people realize that life goes on, and a contraction is more or less priced in. A 30-35% crash, like the 1987 crash, could easily be enough. Especially if it turns out (as I expect) that mortality rates, overall infection estimates, and doomsday economic estimates get revised away from the extremes.

However, the virus and the shutdowns will not. This is expected to drag on for months.

Bubbles and crashes are all about psychology. They have little to do with fundamentals. The panic is what really matters. The market pricing in a small or moderate contraction is one thing. Investors endlessly panic selling because they fear everything is going to $0 is another.

The question for me is, is this a 1987? A 2008? Something totally different? It's not always the worst case scenario.

[o_e_l_e_o]

A 30-35% crash, like the 1987 crash, could easily be enough.

We've already seen a 30% crash in the markets. A month ago, NASDAQ was at 9,800. Today it's at 6,900. Dow Jones from 29,300 to 20,200. Most foreign markets - FTSE, CAC, DAX, etc - are showing similar 30% drops. This is even with the Fed announcing another $700 billion of QE and cutting interest rates twice to zero percent. And even now, we've haven't even begun a proper quarantine, and the suggestions coming from the WHO and top medical/scientific advisors is that this could last for months. Governments around the world are already starting to bail out airlines and other travel companies after only a week or so. I hope you're right, mostly for the sake of all the people who are going to be out of jobs and struggling to get by, but I fear this is just getting started.

[South Park]

A 30-35% crash, like the 1987 crash, could easily be enough.

We've already seen a 30% crash in the markets. A month ago, NASDAQ was at 9,800. Today it's at 6,900. Dow Jones from 29,300 to 20,200. Most foreign markets - FTSE, CAC, DAX, etc - are showing similar 30% drops. This is even with the Fed announcing another $700 billion of QE and cutting interest rates twice to zero percent. And even now, we've haven't even begun a proper quarantine, and the suggestions coming from the WHO and top medical/scientific advisors is that this could last for months. Governments around the world are already starting to bail out airlines and other travel companies after only a week or so. I hope you're right, mostly for the sake of all the people who are going to be out of jobs and struggling to get by, but I fear this is just getting started.

I believe this is just starting as well, many people are not going to be able to stay in their homes for weeks since they do not have the money to do so, but even if they want to work there will be no way to earn more money as many business will not hire anyone when most people are remaining in their homes, so most likely the rate of spread of the virus will go down for now but it will probably accelerate again as people try to continue with their lives making the economic crisis even worse.

[fiulpro]

I do think that one cannot just make assumptions dependent on the price chart and therefore one should understand that this is how it works , bitcoins is not a fiat , it is not backed up by anything nor it is controlled by any governmental authority .
One should understand that the only thing that is important is it is not a death sentence for bitcoins , it is not like it is going to not spike back up because once the market works better and people understand how important bitcoins is for the people one way or the other , we can say it is a store of Value , the value is not controlled so it can do up and down anytime.

[desertfox470]

A 30-35% crash, like the 1987 crash, could easily be enough.

We've already seen a 30% crash in the markets. A month ago, NASDAQ was at 9,800. Today it's at 6,900. Dow Jones from 29,300 to 20,200. Most foreign markets - FTSE, CAC, DAX, etc - are showing similar 30% drops. This is even with the Fed announcing another $700 billion of QE and cutting interest rates twice to zero percent. And even now, we've haven't even begun a proper quarantine, and the suggestions coming from the WHO and top medical/scientific advisors is that this could last for months. Governments around the world are already starting to bail out airlines and other travel companies after only a week or so. I hope you're right, mostly for the sake of all the people who are going to be out of jobs and struggling to get by, but I fear this is just getting started.

I believe this is just starting as well, many people are not going to be able to stay in their homes for weeks since they do not have the money to do so, but even if they want to work there will be no way to earn more money as many business will not hire anyone when most people are remaining in their homes, so most likely the rate of spread of the virus will go down for now but it will probably accelerate again as people try to continue with their lives making the economic crisis even worse.

This may be off-topic, but one major thing that I don't understand is how self quarantining in our houses helps defeat the virus as international travel and life will continue to go on. Is it just to slow down the curve of people getting the virus so that it will progress at a slower rate? I am self quarantining, but don't fully understand it haha.

[o_e_l_e_o]

but even if they want to work there will be no way to earn more money as many business will not hire anyone

I've seen reports from multiple countries of supermarkets, delivery/transport/logistics companies, and online retailers, trying to hire thousands of temporary workers to help meet demand. Everything from people to stack the shelves to delivery drivers and warehouse workers. If you suddenly find yourself on unpaid leave or let go from your job, then this would be a great place to start looking for work if you need it. Walmart alone in the US are trying to hire 150,000 temporary workers.

bitcoins is not a fiat , it is not backed up by anything nor it is controlled by any governmental authority .

Since I obviously can't hear your tone or inflections over the internet, it is impossible to tell if you are meaning this as a good thing or as a bad thing. As you say, bitcoin is not fiat and is not backed up the government, and that's what makes it so much better. Fiat is backed up by less than nothing. It rapidly and consistently devalues, being backed up by governments which are trillions of dollars in debt, running trillions of dollars in deficits, and which print more fiat out of thin air as and when they please.

Is it just to slow down the curve of people getting the virus so that it will progress at a slower rate?

Yes. It's called "flattening the curve". The major issue with this virus is how many people are requiring admission to intensive care and ventilation to treat their lung disease. If tens of thousands of people catch the disease at once (as is currently happening the world over), intensive care units quickly reach capacity, and a lot of people who may have lived had they received intensive care will die, simply because there are no resources remaining. If we can spread the infection rates out over a longer period of time, then there is more of a steady trickle in to intensive care, rather than a flood, and resources can be spread around more people, resulting in fewer deaths.

Have a read of this article for more info: https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html

[FanEagle]

Well, it used to be, but somewhere along the way that changed for a reason we have no idea why. I mean normally bitcoin price was at least acting as if it was a store of value but now its not and its not even all that long ago neither.

Just remember couple months ago when Iran and USA had a trouble, remember how the price went up? That shows that just a month or so ago people were thinking how bitcoin was a store of value and they were running away from a war and putting their money into crypto. However today, just a month or so later we see it going down like crazy with everything else.

So, all we can say is that bitcoin is basically a store of value whenever people want to and not a store of value whenever people just do not want it. We can't know which one will happen when.

[exstasie]

A 30-35% crash, like the 1987 crash, could easily be enough.

We've already seen a 30% crash in the markets.

That was the point.

I hope you're right, mostly for the sake of all the people who are going to be out of jobs and struggling to get by, but I fear this is just getting started.

You and everyone else. As the news cycle shifts to the west, everyone seems to be ignoring China's miraculous recovery:

The magnitude of the global slowdown is huge and in some ways unprecedented but at the same time, the extremely swift recovery in China is leading to expectations of a V-shaped dip in GDP growth: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/coronavirus-recession-worst-wwii-economic-recovery-global-deutsche-bank-2020-3-1029012757

China will see its gross domestic product slump by 31.7% in the first quarter before rocketing to 34% in the following three-month period, the economists said.

There are still lots of unknowns. For all I know, this is a Great Recession/Depression situation. All I'm saying is, consider the speed and magnitude of the drop and the hysteria surrounding it. If the outlook improves (I know, I know, you think it's impossible) the relief rally will be enormous.

If the rest of the world follows China's recovery, I'm betting on this model holding up:

The big question for me still: is this a short term contraction (months) that does not coincide with a larger recession, like 1987?

[o_e_l_e_o]

As the news cycle shifts to the west, everyone seems to be ignoring China's miraculous recovery

China have made a good recovery because they implemented strict quarantine policies early, and have only just started to ease up on them. Since new cases can have a lag time of up to 14 days between becoming infected and showing symptoms, and during those 14 days you can still infect others, any new social distancing or quarantine measures will not begin to be reflected in the count of new cases for 7-14 days, and only after several weeks will you see the real difference it made to the exponential spread of this virus. The US has now passed China in terms of cases per million population, but China have already been on full lockdown for months. The US still has bars, clubs, schools, universities, etc., all open. Huge parties for St Patrick's Day and Spring Break. The lockdown in China was swift and far more restrictive than anything we have seen in the US yet. We won't see the full ramifications of the US's lack of action for several weeks yet, but this is far from over.

Look at Italy for example. They are absolutely crippled right now. Their measures were slower than those of China, but still faster than the US.

[hatshepsut93]

Long-term, Bitcoin is a Store of Value.

Short-term, Bitcoin is a speculative asset.

By long-term, I mean the time horizon is 5-10 years (more than 1 halving). This is my current thesis. We can divide Bitcoin owners into two groups: long-term hodlers and short-term traders. The groups are somewhat fluid. Some hodlers switch to trading. Some traders switch to holding.

Bitcoin's price movement is mostly controlled by traders in the short-term. But in the long-term, hodlers will ultimately decide the price movement. Bitcoin price long-term has been up. That suggests a growing number of hodlers. Data also suggests growing hodlers.

People will move their money around. Know your long-term timeline. Ignore short-term price movement.

5-10 years isn't really a long term, I bet nothing will seriously change in Bitcoin - the price will be higher than it is now, but it still would be speculative and risky. If some other major crisis will happen at that time, Bitcoin would probably react just as it did now.

Bitcoin today is ten times higher than it was 4-5 years ago, and still it is just as volatile. It will take really-really long for Bitcoin to become a mainstream asset like gold, if it will actually happen.