I think I Found The Reason For Bitcoin's Latest Crash

[Hydrogen]

EDIT:

Recap on BTC price history.

A news story claiming quantum breakthrough was published on september 20th, 2019: https://www.ft.com/content/b9bb4e54-dbc1-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17

The coinciding decline in BTC price:



A news story claiming quantum breakthrough was published on march 11th, 2020:  https://phys.org/news/2020-03-year-old-puzzle-quantum-breakthrough.html

The coinciding drop:




....

Engineers crack 58-year-old puzzle on way to quantum breakthrough



12 MAR 2020

A mishap during an experiment led UNSW quantum computing researchers to crack a mystery that had stood since 1961.

A happy accident in the laboratory has led to a breakthrough discovery that not only solved a problem that stood for more than half a century, but has major implications for the development of quantum computers and sensors.

In a study published today in Nature, a team of engineers at UNSW Sydney has done what a celebrated scientist first suggested in 1961 was possible, but has eluded everyone since: controlling the nucleus of a single atom using only electric fields.

“This discovery means that we now have a pathway to build quantum computers using single-atom spins without the need for any oscillating magnetic field for their operation,” says UNSW’s Scientia Professor of Quantum Engineering Andrea Morello. “Moreover, we can use these nuclei as exquisitely precise sensors of electric and magnetic fields, or to answer fundamental questions in quantum science.”

https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/engineers-crack-58-year-old-puzzle-way-quantum-breakthrough

....


This news story was published on march 12th 2020. (march 11th** see edit below) The day of our latest downtrend spike. The value of bitcoin declines whenever a "quantum computer breakthrough" news story is published. Anyone that cares to put this to the test can lookup the publishing date of any recent news story announcing a "breakthrough" in quantum computers. There will be a correlation with a decline in BTC price. The theory behind it being quantum computer breakthroughs carrying a potential to defeat the encryption standards technologies like bitcoin are built upon.

That said I suspect scientific claims published in this article to later be discredited and proven false in the future. A normal and typical trend for a high percentage of questionable breakthroughs published in science journals today. The results of which often cannot be reproduced.

This amounts to nothing more than market manipulation and smokescreens imo.


EDIT:  CORRECTION.

The first publishing of this story was on march 11th, 2020 here:  https://phys.org/news/2020-03-year-old-puzzle-quantum-breakthrough.html

[jackg]

I wonder what sort of equipment you'd use to check there isn't a magnetic field thst wouldn't itself create aagnetic field 😲...

Itll be interesting if the guy in the office next door accidentally disrupted their experiment by doing something with fields the just happened to oscillate in the same direction... 🤣

I do think the nsa should hurry up on that front, or maybe someone like semantec and cloud flare could bother to make a partnership of a secure signature algorithm...

At the moment, we don't really have an algorithm to become the defacto standard. I've just heard people pick favourites.

[HeRetiK]

I think general uncertainty on the markets due to a certain pandemic is more likely to blame than anything quantum related.

You know what also happened during the day of the big red spike? The US closing their borders to Europe.

[alicecrowl966]

I think that almost no one knew about this news in the day of drop. And this is still not a game changer article for so big drop

[avikz]

I think general uncertainty on the markets due to a certain pandemic is more likely to blame than anything quantum related.

You know what also happened during the day of the big red spike? The US closing their borders to Europe.

I doubt mate! A general uncertainty within the common market usually should lead to a positive spike in crypto market. Because crypto assets are generally seen as a alternate market where people invest during the uncertain times. It is very similar to the gold market at large!

Also crypto should not be affected by the closing of any boarded. It's a truly global currency which defeats the geographical borders and its related restrictions. All you need is a laptop and an internet connection to get associated with crypto market from any corner of the world. You don't really require a KYC to prove your nationality to crypto market. So crypto market is usually immune to the such kind of things.

I believe, the downturn happened due to a huge sell-off worth 110 million USD from Plus Token owners. That was reported in several crypto related news websites few days ago. Seems more convincing!

[HeRetiK]

I doubt mate! A general uncertainty within the common market usually should lead to a positive spike in crypto market. Because crypto assets are generally seen as a alternate market where people invest during the uncertain times. It is very similar to the gold market at large!

Bitcoin acting as a viable hedge in times of economic crisis is only an assumption so far. Sure, Bitcoin has a low correlation to classical markets and could behave like gold during a bear market.

But we don't know that yet because there hasn't been a recession since Bitcoin's inception.

People take higher risks in bull markets. But in times of crisis we see people fleeing from high risk assets (eg. stocks, especially small caps) to what is perceived as safe havens (eg. gold). We're about to witness whether Bitcoin falls in the first or the latter category. Whether it makes sense that closing geographical borders affect a purely digital asset is unfortunately rather irrelevant in this case, as the market is rarely rational, especially in the short term.

[figmentofmyass]

this is the conclusion of the article:

“This landmark result will open up a treasure trove of discoveries and applications,” says Professor Morello. “The system we created has enough complexity to study how the classical world we experience every day emerges from the quantum realm. Moreover, we can use its quantum complexity to build sensors of electromagnetic fields with vastly improved sensitivity. And all this, in a simple electronic device made in silicon, controlled with small voltages applied to a metal electrode.”

what does this mean in terms of qubit processing? what real applications does this have? does this actually represent a threat to bitcoin and other encrypted protocols?

[Hydrogen]

I edited OP to better illustrate evidence for claims.

 

I wonder what sort of equipment you'd use to check there isn't a magnetic field thst wouldn't itself create aagnetic field 😲...

Good question. Maybe one of the reasons the news story hasn't been widely circulated is it will fail to hold up under scrutiny if subject to peer review. That's what I would expect although I can't claim to have the physics background to put everything into perspective the way it should.

I do think the nsa should hurry up on that front, or maybe someone like semantec and cloud flare could bother to make a partnership of a secure signature algorithm...

This is an example of why encryption algorithms developed by intelligence agencies should NEVER be utilized if security is the goal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/national-security/cia-crypto-encryption-machines-espionage/

I think general uncertainty on the markets due to a certain pandemic is more likely to blame than anything quantum related.

You know what also happened during the day of the big red spike? The US closing their borders to Europe.

It has been said russia and singapore are having success keeping the virus contained. Thanks to their closed border policy. If that is true, shouldn't bitcoin's price have risen after the united states closed their borders as well. As we are now seeing canada and other nations follow suit in limiting travel and closing borders.

this is the conclusion of the article:

“This landmark result will open up a treasure trove of discoveries and applications,” says Professor Morello. “The system we created has enough complexity to study how the classical world we experience every day emerges from the quantum realm. Moreover, we can use its quantum complexity to build sensors of electromagnetic fields with vastly improved sensitivity. And all this, in a simple electronic device made in silicon, controlled with small voltages applied to a metal electrode.”

what does this mean in terms of qubit processing? what real applications does this have? does this actually represent a threat to bitcoin and other encrypted protocols?

Quantum computing is no nearer to progressing from a vaporware pipe dream to reality, in my opinion. I think these news stories are simply a method of helping to conceal anti bitcoin market manipulation being orchestrated by banking cartels and their associates.

One core foundation of crypto could be the encryption standards upon which it is built. It loosely follows that developments which threaten that core foundation might have negative effects on bitcoin price. But I think everyone knows that shouldn't naturally happen to such a significant degree without a better proof of concept.

Market manipulation is my best guess. Although I can't claim to have hard evidence.

[Twinkledoe]

I think general uncertainty on the markets due to a certain pandemic is more likely to blame than anything quantum related.

You know what also happened during the day of the big red spike? The US closing their borders to Europe.

I am with this reason rather than this quantum thing. The pandemic is affecting the global population and almost all the businesses. Have you seen in your lifetime countries after countries closing their borders to everyone? I guess this is your first time to witness such event. So this I think is the major reason of bitcoin's latest crash.

[hatshepsut93]

Now take all reports about quantum computers breakthroughs over the last few years - I'm sure there's more than these two, and I'm sure most of them didn't cause any significant price reaction, and probably some of them were more significant that this last one that supposedly crashed the market. Because if it was like you say, then Bitcoin would have these 30-50% crashes many times a year.

I think it's clear to everyone that the stock market crash triggered Bitcoin's crash, especially since the same happened with gold and other markets.

[yanto@1977]

Many analysis came and claim the reason why bitcoin crash and the closer one is Corona. I respect your opinion but your opinion similar with history will repeat again and whales use it to change market direction. In general situation we call it manipulation, that's really bad. I prefer say global economy use Corona issue to protect currency and commodity against bitcoin domination. Every country know how to deal Corona but they let it happen to press bitcoin value, if they don't do it currency will follow bitcoin, that's a mistake.

[jackg]

I edited OP to better illustrate evidence for claims.

 

I wonder what sort of equipment you'd use to check there isn't a magnetic field thst wouldn't itself create aagnetic field 😲...

Good question. Maybe one of the reasons the news story hasn't been widely circulated is it will fail to hold up under scrutiny if subject to peer review. That's what I would expect although I can't claim to have the physics background to put everything into perspective the way it should.

I do think the nsa should hurry up on that front, or maybe someone like semantec and cloud flare could bother to make a partnership of a secure signature algorithm...

This is an example of why encryption algorithms developed by intelligence agencies should NEVER be utilized if security is the goal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/national-security/cia-crypto-encryption-machines-espionage/

Yeah no one wants the guys working on an innovative project to succeed if it means they rank faster 🤣.

And I do doubt the quality of a CIA report into itself. Its not like an unbiased secondary agency went in to check the information they managed to take...

I've also been having to read up on pre-80s encryption with LCG used at IBM and it was very easy to crack...
There still has been no progress by the bitcoin devs to even suggest what quantum proof algo they'll likely use...

[el kaka22]

Everyone fears that quantum computers could cause the bitcoin blockchain to be ruined and someone to be able to brute force their way into anything they want but we are forgetting one simple truth, it is not just for the bad, it is for the good as well.

If quantum computing ever becomes slightly more common everywhere in the world, not saying we will all use quantum computing at our homes or anything but just a bit more common, we would honestly have people who defend bitcoin as well with it and not just trying to destroy.

Plus, if a person ruins blockchain and steals money, that would kind of mean end of bitcoin as well if they are successful and there are no defenders, which means people would sell and that person would get nothing, in the end there is no winning scenario for quantum to be used to do whatever you want in crypto world, you either get a defender and fail, or you succeed but still worthless because of it.

[Naida_BR]

Good shot on trying to explain the recent crash.
However, i think that the reason is pretty much simple. The pandemic trend of coronavirus is to be blamed as all the financial markets are being affected by it. The cryptocurrency markets are on the same category such as the financial markets so they follow the same trends (ups and downs).

[Febo]

I think I Found The Reason For Bitcoin's Latest Crash

A news story claiming quantum breakthrough was published on march 11th, 2020:  https://phys.org/news/2020-03-year-old-puzzle-quantum-breakthrough.html

I dont know on what world are you living. On planet Earth everyone talks about deadly covid19 virus. Where we need to self isolate and with that economic activity decreases a lot. Covid19 is a sole reason why we have sub $10000 Bitcoin right now. And it will keep Bitcoin under $10000 for many more months.

[Lucius]

I think general uncertainty on the markets due to a certain pandemic is more likely to blame than anything quantum related.
You know what also happened during the day of the big red spike? The US closing their borders to Europe.

WHO declares COVID-19 as pandemic on world level at 11 March, oil is go down 20%, and BTC is drop like a rock from almost $8000 to $4800 on March 12 followed by BitMEX forced liquidation of $700 million in just 15 minutes. It's not difficult to connect the dots, the picture is pretty clear for anyone who wants to see things realistically.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/who-declares-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-global-pandemic.html
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5232757.msg54026737#msg54026737

[mu_enrico]

Quantum computer? How about the dip in the stock market then? I understand people want to see Bitcoin detached from the mainstream financial cycle, but the evidence says otherwise. If the economy is terrible, the Bitcoin price will go down.

[ufaiz50]

I doubt mate! A general uncertainty within the common market usually should lead to a positive spike in crypto market. Because crypto assets are generally seen as a alternate market where people invest during the uncertain times. It is very similar to the gold market at large!

Bitcoin acting as a viable hedge in times of economic crisis is only an assumption so far. Sure, Bitcoin has a low correlation to classical markets and could behave like gold during a bear market.

But we don't know that yet because there hasn't been a recession since Bitcoin's inception.

People take higher risks in bull markets. But in times of crisis we see people fleeing from high risk assets (eg. stocks, especially small caps) to what is perceived as safe havens (eg. gold). We're about to witness whether Bitcoin falls in the first or the latter category. Whether it makes sense that closing geographical borders affect a purely digital asset is unfortunately rather irrelevant in this case, as the market is rarely rational, especially in the short term.

Yes that's right, "cryptocurrency is a safe asset if there is a global economic crisis" that's just an assumption. I totally agree with you sir. I don't know why but in reality the cryptocurrency market is unpredictable, a lot of manipulation. so we could say, "whether the crypto assets are safe from the effects of the global crisis?"

The crypo market is full of manipulation, making conspiracies that link many fields, events and times. but is it really true? those are assumptions.

[fudster]

Human lives are in danger due to the deadly virus and cities are locked up due to it, its like from the zombie movie scene. I would leave anything valuable behind and sell some of my BTCs if it saves my life and my kids in the next months.

Its the food and medication preparation for the next few months that I would be worrying and forget about that quantum and qubits since they have nothing to do with how I can be prepared and I think traders in stock market thought the same thing before the zombies come.  No wonder the markets crash. Those who dumped didn't think of quantum computing.

[Sirait]

I think general uncertainty on the markets due to a certain pandemic is more likely to blame than anything quantum related.

You know what also happened during the day of the big red spike? The US closing their borders to Europe.

I am with this reason rather than this quantum thing. The pandemic is affecting the global population and almost all the businesses. Have you seen in your lifetime countries after countries closing their borders to everyone? I guess this is your first time to witness such event. So this I think is the major reason of bitcoin's latest crash.

we will indeed continue to disagree about what causes the price of Bitcoin Crash, but there is nothing wrong with analysis and I appreciate the OP analysis...