The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game

[Wind_FURY]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

[1714891172]

1714891172

[Darker45]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

As always the case, the poorest countries are at the most disadvantageous position. Thickly populated countries whose population is highly dependent on daily wages or a no-work no-pay basis are going to feel the economic pain earlier and in a more severe degree. I don't want to name countries but we know which of them have such a situation. In those countries, health benefits are next to nothing. Moreover, if a lockdown is implemented, the daily wage earners, which doubtless comprise the huge majority of the population, may not be exposed to the danger of getting infected but will go hungry until god knows when.

I am coming from the Philippines and my country is certainly one in the category that I've mentioned. The primary concern of my country right now is that lockdown and community quarantines are hard to implement. The rich and the privileged don't have any problem with it; it is very easy for them to abide with the order. How about the poor? They don't scratch, there is nothing to peck. While I don't believe this pandemic will make my country bankrupt, it will definitely hurt the economy. And when the economy of a developing country is severely hit, the ordinary man will suffer the most.

[Wind_FURY]

I believe it might be from one of the countries in the European Union which already has problems BEFORE the pandemic because if slow economic-growth.

[btc_angela]

Italy will be the likely candidate, as it is one of the worst country that is being hit by the virus outside of China. Death toll already surpassed 2,500, and the demographics itself, country has the second-oldest population on earth. And obviously, the younger generation respect their elders in a Catholic country like Italy that's why the spread is unprecedented. And I think we can consider Italy now as ground zero, so it have slowed down their economy in the last month or so.

 

[Subbir]

At first, China was but now Italy is that the most affected i feel the Italian government are going to be the foremost suffering from the worldwide epidemic of COVID-19. The price in Italy is on the increase and there's no place for dead bodies in hospitals. China has been ready to overcome its effects to some extent but Italy is more affected than China After Italy the effect is in Spain.

[KrisAlex18]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

I think those modest countries will be the one who will be bankrupt first, even though China is the most affected country compared to other country because the virus came from that country, I don't think that they will be the first one that will be bankrupt because as we all know China is strong and rich country, there are so many population in China that makes them so powerful.

But I think if the virus will stay for so long, but I hope it will not, it will really affect the country of China because there are already a lot of citizen in that country who died. there are a lot of businesses who get failed, there are so much people who became unemployed because of the virus on their land.

[White Christmas]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Actually it is hard to say and predict on which country will br have a big negative effect of the coronavirus or the COVID 19 virus because we all know that we care about our brother countries so that it is hard but I guess the first one who will going to bankrupt are those country that has a very low economic growth way back then the virus has not started.

[Janation]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Obviously, it will be the third world country including China.

Every country is affected and based on the people that are being contaminated by this virus, I think it would be Italy though it is not a third world country. Other than Italy, obviously there is China that is the number one country affected by this pandemic. I also read this article you can also see other countries affected by this pandemic. Take care you guys.

[Gozie51]

China has a huge population and this is one factor to look at because you need also a huge resources to go about it, from taking care of the medical personnel that will treat affected patients to providing quarantine places and health materials. I think the amount of resources will be huge. Because China is largely an export country, many businesses have been shut Dow which means financial inflow has reduced. I see China being one of the biggest hit.

[abhiseshakana]

In my opinion, the most disadvantaged are China and the most benefited country is the United States, because, in reality, the value of the dollar is getting stronger. China is a great power country that wants to become a superpower country like the United States, unfortunately, China only wins in trade transactions or has a large reserve capital but loses in the military, integration of its power, currency, and hegemony.

The global supply chain is currently controlled by America, for example, an industry in India, they import goods from Thailand, Romania, Costa Rica and a few percents of products from Thailand require raw materials from China. With China shut down for several months due to the coronavirus, Thailand, Romania will fail to send to India by force majeure reasons. America is attacking China's supply and demand with Corona.

China counteracted this by making a foreign direct investment to many developing countries in the world through the OBOR program. China has a large reserve currency that is used as a proxy weapon for a dollar to enter China. The way the dollar enters China is by investing in exported products.

America has a surefire strategy so that Chinese investment in developing countries does not generate dollars, that is, how to get those Chinese partner countries to pay high taxes.

[FlightyPouch]

I am certain that it is China. They are the origin of the virus and a lot of people died in the country, They should also be blamed since instead of containing the people to avoid the pandemic, they did not do it. They are one of the biggest markets and had a lot of exports to other countries but with the lockdown, they can't export goods to other countries. Other countries are affected that are related to China's not able to trade or export goods like Japan.

[princesspoppy]

I think the country that will suffer the most because of this pandemic virus is Italy. Although the virus originated from China and many people there were infected, they know how to handle this kind of situation. It is also stated that many people have already recovered from it and less people are now reported infected. As for Italy, it has now the largest number of infected people and many people already died from it. If the virus keeps on spreading, there will be many patients to be treated, and the recovery of them will take longer as well as the recovery of their economic status.

[figmentofmyass]

Italy will be the likely candidate, as it is one of the worst country that is being hit by the virus outside of China. Death toll already surpassed 2,500, and the demographics itself, country has the second-oldest population on earth. And obviously, the younger generation respect their elders in a Catholic country like Italy that's why the spread is unprecedented. And I think we can consider Italy now as ground zero, so it have slowed down their economy in the last month or so.

not to mention that italy's economy has already been on the edge for a while. this time last year, economists were already speculating about a greek-style financial crisis in italy and how it poses a threat to the entire euro zone.

speak of the devil. this just in from the new york times: A New Hurt in Italy From the Coronavirus: A Banking Crisis

With Italy effectively quarantined, its industry shuttered, and consumer spending practically nil beyond food and medicine, the economy is expected to contract by 3 percent this year, according to a recent forecast from Oxford Economics.

“It’s likely that banks will need to be rescued,” said Nicola Borri, a finance professor at Luiss, a university in Rome. “The economy has basically been stopped. We are probably going to see massive defaults. Clearly, Italian banks will be badly hit.”

[Wind_FURY]

Italy will be the likely candidate, as it is one of the worst country that is being hit by the virus outside of China. Death toll already surpassed 2,500, and the demographics itself, country has the second-oldest population on earth. And obviously, the younger generation respect their elders in a Catholic country like Italy that's why the spread is unprecedented. And I think we can consider Italy now as ground zero, so it have slowed down their economy in the last month or so.

not to mention that italy's economy has already been on the edge for a while. this time last year, economists were already speculating about a greek-style financial crisis in italy and how it poses a threat to the entire euro zone.

speak of the devil. this just in from the new york times: A New Hurt in Italy From the Coronavirus: A Banking Crisis

With Italy effectively quarantined, its industry shuttered, and consumer spending practically nil beyond food and medicine, the economy is expected to contract by 3 percent this year, according to a recent forecast from Oxford Economics.

“It’s likely that banks will need to be rescued,” said Nicola Borri, a finance professor at Luiss, a university in Rome. “The economy has basically been stopped. We are probably going to see massive defaults. Clearly, Italian banks will be badly hit.”

It's maybe the reason why Italy was late in implementing its national quarantine. The government knew that it would weaken their already weak economy, possibly defaulting. Because of not doing it early, they will suffer a worse economic crisis, AND a health crisis.

[nutildah]

I'm gonna guess its the countries that are already on the verge of economic collapse, those which have unsustainable debt and whose economies are relatively fragile:

Country with debt/GDP ratio:

- Portugal 119.46%
- Italy 133.43%
- Greece 174.15%
- Spain 95.96%

Spain has actually been improving as of late, but these 4 countries have collectively been known as the PIGS for at least 10 years for having too much debt.

[el kaka22]

Italy by far, China is so crowded that you can literally kill a million people there and they would keep on being powerful, I am sure until 100 million it must be around the same but when it is death in a crowded one specific area that is both worse and better for economy, it is worse for that place and whatever that nation was getting from that area, but better because all else continues like nothing happened.

France, Spain, UK, USA all will be affected, they will probably have a horrible horrible 2 months ahead if we can't get a cure, however if they actually succeed something like that nobody will be too much affected because cure would help both infected and the economy. Yet when it comes to "most affected" it is obviously Italy, they are basically just staying inside until this passes, all business are closed.

[kaya11]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Well we have different kinds of views and perceptions, I guess the if things gets to worst and all countries are lockdown, and no more trading of goods from other countries, then my opinion is the one whose country is self sustaining will be able to overcome such problem. If people starts to think that paper money is nothing and food is more important, then they would farm for survival and leave out everything else. This means lands which crops grows in all seasons will be able to survive right, and countries with harsh climates will have a hard time looking for food, if the pandemic will be on a large scale and will be longer, maybe for at least 2 years or more.

[Oasisman]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Let me have a close guess, Italy.
Before the pandemic, Italy has been suffering from economic crisis (I haven't read much about it).
Adds to the burden that hurt their economic status is the covid-19 that continuously devastating the country with the highest mortality rate right now, breaking the China's rate.
With the current lockdown in most part of the Italy, I don't think it will do any good to their economy.

[Hydrogen]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Sadly enough, I would guess greece. Due to their cultural trend of tax evasion coupled with big government spending producing not much in tangible benefits for their society. They seem to have also been bailed out the most. The European Union would also appear ill prepared to cope with global pandemics due to their insistence on open borders. And prioritizing the needs of illegal immigrants above their own native demographics.

I can't remember whether the united states or european union carried a larger deficit in proportion to GDP. Its so difficult to find an accurate statistic for exactly how many trillions of euros the EU is in debt. I don't think anyone knows the answer.

[yanto@1977]

and be the first to go bankrupt

I try to search about bankrupt country and the meaning is the country have big loan without have ability to pay, we can call it bankrupt. But in global economic world there's chance loan can be erase but of course depend in which organization they join, so there's no bankrupt country. All country have effect from Corona but the biggest is in China, they can struggle because have equipment and fund but will never survive if they fight alone.