The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game

[hatshepsut93]

Isn't the goal of quarantines is to stop infections from spreading? I'm confused.

With diseases like the coronavirus you can't truly stop them, only slow them down, which is the goal right now.

I believe 6 months of no/truly low economic productivity/output is enough to default countries with weak economies. Plus the damage of the pandemic.

Entertainment industry, tourism, etc. are taking a huge hit now, but people still go to work in many places, and office jobs allow their workers to work from home. It's not like the economy if fully stopped. And quarantine shouldn't last 6 months, the epidemic might, but the quarantine should be over when the epidemic will start slowing down.

The question was, guessing what country's government would default first. Italy? Iraq?

And my answer was - no country will default. But if you want to make a good guess, I'd say it might be a country that already has weak economy and would be most affected by the anti-epidemic measures, so maybe it's some poor country that lives off tourism.

[Wind_FURY]

I don't know if it is related to the pandemic, a friend of mine told me that Lebanon did not pay a $1.2bn Eurobond payment, and has already defaulted on March 9, 2020.

[inanilujimi]

for me this is no longer a matter of just one country but the whole world is also getting its effects.
I will not speculate with the hardships that have occurred in a country.
this virus has no antidote so it can continue to spread throughout the world.

[snipie]

I don't know if it is related to the pandemic, a friend of mine told me that Lebanon did not pay a $1.2bn Eurobond payment, and has already defaulted on March 9, 2020.

No it is not related. Lebanon defaulted paying its debts due to the social/political movement that led the old government to dissolve, banks to close and/or limit withdrawal of workers money, limiting the use of other FIAT... The situation there is very complex without mentioning the repercussions of the Syrian war.
Corona pandemic is just adding flavor to the mixed sauce.

[shushu9977]

obviously, it is first including the country china. And European union country faces big problem mostly Italy. It is affected all over the world almost 150 countries cross the the great harmful problem corona virus.

[Wind_FURY]

Another question, would some of the other countries of the European Union start proposing their own "Brexits"? Which country will propose to leave next after the UK?

[iv4n]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

It's a guessing game, so I will choose Italy! They were in problems before this, for years they are on edge with their economy. They are pretty badly hit by virus, some news about them is that they can bury all the people who have died. If EU don't help with some huge financial assistance package they will be in huge problems.

Another question, would some of the other countries of the European Union start proposing their own "Brexits"? Which country will propose to leave next after the UK?

Same answer, Italy! If they don't get financial, and all other kind of aid, they will probably leave EU. They are on the edge for years, this is the situation that can easily push them over that edge!

[criza]

The Corona virus ncov-19 have been very destructive in the lives of many people around the globe  It has spread across borders that it had been considered already as a pandemic. Surely, it would greatly affect third world countries that doesn't have great technological and health facilities unlike rich countries to combat the virus especially, thos countries that have more people in poor areas such as squatters in which the rate of spreading of the virus would be high.

With no pre-emptive measures, third world countries are in a great danger.

[Meowth05]

The likely victim of economic crash would be the third world countries that have a lot of cases. The reason is that their countries are focusing on manpower which will be crippled by pandemic.

[Lordshiva]

Cant tell about other countries...but in my country it has already shown a lot of effect withing few days....the share market has crashed as it has never been...and if this continues at this rate for some more time then danger times are coming

[Wind_FURY]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

It's a guessing game, so I will choose Italy! They were in problems before this, for years they are on edge with their economy. They are pretty badly hit by virus, some news about them is that they can bury all the people who have died. If EU don't help with some huge financial assistance package they will be in huge problems.

Another question, would some of the other countries of the European Union start proposing their own "Brexits"? Which country will propose to leave next after the UK?

Same answer, Italy! If they don't get financial, and all other kind of aid, they will probably leave EU. They are on the edge for years, this is the situation that can easily push them over that edge!

Haha. I believe the others will leave too, IF they see by being within the EU, will have no economic advantage after the pandemic. Their people need to eat, and their economy a bail out.

[snipie]

Italy and Spain are the most affected by the virus in Europe until now however Italexit or Spainexit will not happen imo for the moment unless an irreversible damage would happen or in case of surprising major rise of eurosceptic party inside one of them.
It is true that EU is not responding very well until now to help the most affected countries however it has many reserve money that will be mobilised to boost the economy whenever this epidemic situation will be resolved, and i don't think Italy nor Spain will take a risk to rebuild their damaged economy without the help of EU.

[Jeremy Franklin]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

If the virus hits Africa, most of the African states will get in huge trouble. The same goes for South America, if you look at Venezuela. The rich industrial states in Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and also China will overcome this pandemic. It will be pricy but those countries will stand it. For everyone else.. good luck.

[snipie]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

If the virus hits Africa, most of the African states will get in huge trouble. The same goes for South America, if you look at Venezuela. The rich industrial states in Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and also China will overcome this pandemic. It will be pricy but those countries will stand it. For everyone else.. good luck.

In Africa the ones that risk dying are the old folks, those who have many diseases and the poor people. So asking their wealthy politicians to save few hundreds or few thousands of them isn't obvious unfortunately. For Venezuela, people are struggling to get some food and a normal health care in an ordinary day so the infection will not make the situation worse imo since it is already very bad..

[FanEagle]

Italy is by far the most affected for sure, I have seen pictures of "ghost town" type of situations where there was no one around and that kind of means economy stops. Economy is not something that can afford to stop or give a break, it has to continue forever to keep churning profits or as soon as it stops we are talking about a global crisis.

It means Italy is about to have something so huge that other nations will start to get affected because of it, France is next and then Spain will be following them, after that it is impossible to think Germany will be unaffected and of course UK ... as you can see it is going from one place to another and economy will be basically destroyed in general in all of Europe because of this. Hopefully it will be recovered but it will take a lot of time before we are back on regular days economically.

[thesmallgod]

The poorest country of course. Countries with a bad economy, low standard of living and poor health sector. Such countries might able to contain the outbreak which might further damage the economy of such countries. Unfortunately, most of these countries are in Africa according to https://www.concernusa.org/story/worlds-poorest-countries/. Liberia which was hit by the ebola outbreak in 2014 has been regarded as the poorest country in the world.

[Wind_FURY]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

If the virus hits Africa, most of the African states will get in huge trouble. The same goes for South America, if you look at Venezuela. The rich industrial states in Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and also China will overcome this pandemic. It will be pricy but those countries will stand it. For everyone else.. good luck.

Not Italy. I believe their down-playing of the pandemic will cost their falling economy more, than if they implemeted quarantines earlier.

[figmentofmyass]

Not Italy. I believe their down-playing of the pandemic will cost their falling economy more, than if they implemeted quarantines earlier.

woulda, coulda, shoulda. NYC is a disaster too, with something like 20% of all cases in the USA inside its metro area.

the burning question on a lot of peoples' minds is this: are cases being under reported in authoritarian countries like china and russia? their state run medias aren't known for accuracy and transparency. it's hard to tell if the pandemic growth is that much worse in western countries (italy, spain, soon to be USA) or if the problem is being brushed under the rug elsewhere. the chinese government is now planting the narrative that a recent uptick in infections is caused by "imported cases" from incoming travelers from abroad.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-new-coronavirus-infections-double-due-to-imported-cases-idUSKBN21B01X

let's not forget the story of the spanish flu:

To maintain morale, World War I censors minimized early reports of illness and mortality in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. Papers were free to report the epidemic's effects in neutral Spain, such as the grave illness of King Alfonso XIII, and these stories created a false impression of Spain as especially hard hit. This gave rise to the pandemic's nickname, "Spanish flu".

anyway, italy and spain are both in precarious economic positions but under the circumstances, i don't see them pushing for an EU exit and i also see significant EU assistance coming their way.

[FanatMonet]

I will assume that there will be no defaults, but Italy will suffer the most, the situation is too bad there, people have not reacted properly to the threat for too long, and now they are paying for it. They pay a very high price that could have been avoided had the government been a little tougher.

[so98nn]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

I believe its going to be INDIA.

(Good God, apologies but practicality says it)

The thing is India is fighting against coronavirus with full power but in the meantime its loosing huge businesses and its economy bursting inside out.
India does't have enough funds in the Reserve Bank of India.

Banks are not allowed to take loan EMI's and other repayments from the customers for next three months or until next notice from the government. Thus, it will lead to loss of bank business as they will have huge set backs.

On the other hand, NSE and BSE are not recovering that effectively at which rate it shall be. Large number of employees have their money in these markets and which they will not getting back soon or will be selling in loss.

Most of the engineering companies have been shut and there is no salaries to employees.

India is also led by huge number of farmers and for them its getting difficult to sell their goods in far locations due to lockdown of transports etc.

Looking at such locked up situation im betting on India followed by Italy.