Is it possible in may that a block of BTC will be mined for longer than 10min?

[FontSeli]

In the near future (in may of this year) there will be a halving in the Bitcoin network, which will lead to a decrease in the reward for block mining from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25. This will reduce the revenue of miners by half. Now the crypto market has fallen heavily following the global economy and it does not seem that it will be able to recover and the price of Bitcoin will grow significantly by may 2020.
All this can lead to a serious drop in the network's mining power. The difficulty of the network is recalculated once every 14 days (or after 2016 extracted blocks), and we may find ourselves in a situation that miners will take much longer to solve the tasks necessary for them to be given the right to form a block of the Bitcoin network.
Do you think it is possible in may 2020 that a block of Bitcoin will be mined for longer than 10 minutes?

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[o_e_l_e_o]

Do you think it is possible in may 2020 that a block of Bitcoin will be mined for longer than 10 minutes?

Blocks are mined every 10 minutes on average. It is exceedingly common to see more than 10 minutes between blocks. Indeed, at time of writing, the last two blocks (622115 and 622116) had 13 minutes between them, and you only have to go back another 12 blocks to have a block time of 30 minutes.

If some miners drop off the network and the hashrate drops, then it will take longer than 14 days (on average) to mine 2016 blocks. We might see a short term blip of a few days to a few weeks where the average block time increases above 10 minutes. It makes little different in the long run though, as the difficulty will still readjust to bring that average back towards 10 minutes.

[joniboini]

Pretty sure we'll see that happens once in a while. I've seen two or three blocks (maybe more) being mined for more than 10 minutes this month (other than what oeleo mentioned above), and sometimes quicker than that.

It is interesting if you want to make a comparison though, how many blocks have more than 10 minutes between each other 1 month before and after the halving.

[Charles-Tim]

o_e_l_e_o have said it all.  Before miners hashing power find a solution to the block hash, it can take more than 10 minutes. Not that it happens every 10 minutes accurately but on average. So, it can take more than 10 minutes. The block time of one block can be different from the next block. This is not new and not going to be new after halving.

[o_e_l_e_o]

So during the last difficulty period, the average hashrate was around 118 EH/s. Over the past few days, the hashrate has dropped down to somewhere in the region of 85 EH/s. Looking at the last 100 blocks, it took just under 19 hours to mine them, meaning an average of 11.4 minutes, or 11 minutes and 24 seconds, per block.

We are currently on block 622,203. The next difficulty adjustment is due at block 622,944, which is 741 blocks away. At an average of 10 minutes per block, that would take 5 days, 3 hours, 30 minutes to reach. With an average block time of 11.4 minutes, it will instead take 5 days, 20 hours, 47 minutes to reach.

So with the recent drop in hashrate, the next difficulty adjustment has been pushed around 17 hours further away. If the hashrate stabilizes around these levels, then we will likely see a drop in difficulty of around 20%.

Note that this is kind of circular logic - we have no way of calculating the hashrate, and simply infer its value from knowing the current difficulty and the current average block time.

[odolvlobo]

I think the issue being raised is this: if the price remains low when the subsidy is halved, a very large number of miners will suspend operations because it will not be profitable for them to mine at the current difficulty, and the hash rate will plummet as a result. With a much lower network hash rate, the time between blocks will be much longer than 10 minutes until the difficulty adjusts.

It is hard to predict how many miners will drop out. Many miners will continue to mine unprofitably because they are not in it for the money, or maybe they may think that continuing to mine will give them an advantage when the difficulty drops.

As for the time between blocks, the math is straightforward. If the block time remains at 10 minutes after the halving, then the difficulty would adjust as normal about 1 week later, but that probably won't happen. If 25% of the hash rate stops mining, then blocks will take 13 minutes for about 9 days, and then about 11 minutes for about 15 days. If 50% of the hash rate stops mining, then blocks will take 20 minutes for about 2 weeks, and then about 13 minutes for 18 days. If 75% of the hash rate stops mining, then blocks will take 40 minutes for about 4 weeks, and then about 16 minutes for 11 days.

Then what is the effect of longer block times? The biggest effect is the drop in throughput and that will probably result in a rise in transaction fees. I don't think that anyone relies heavily on 10 minutes block times, so I don't think there will be any other significant impact.

[BrewMaster]

As for the time between blocks, the math is straightforward. If the block time remains at 10 minutes after the halving, then the difficulty would adjust as normal about 1 week later, but that probably won't happen. If 25% of the hash rate stops mining, then blocks will take 13 minutes for about 9 days, and then about 11 minutes for about 15 days. If 50% of the hash rate stops mining, then blocks will take 20 minutes for about 2 weeks, and then about 13 minutes for 18 days. If 75% of the hash rate stops mining, then blocks will take 40 minutes for about 4 weeks, and then about 16 minutes for 11 days.

realistically hashrate never drops suddenly in big percentages like this ever. we had lots of cases where it could drop hard but it didn't such as all the attacks during 2017 and early 2018 and with the much higher incentive to mine copy-shitcoins but it never dropped like this.
there has been only slow declines the effect of which aren't even seen in block times.
by the way price has not dropped that hard to even begin to worry about it like this. it is even recovering already (went to $7100 today).

[dothebeats]

Bitcoin mining is designed in such a way that even if a drastic drop in hash rate is to happen, the difficulty is adjusted accordingly so as to keep the average solving time to still be at 10 mins. We have had scenarios wherein the block takes longer than 10 mins to get solved and it happens on a daily basis, though again in a sudden shift of things nto the negative side of the spectrum, it could be worse. Then again, the math of it ensures that it gets as close to the 10 min mark as possible--in the long run, that is.

[FontSeli]

So during the last difficulty period, the average hashrate was around 118 EH/s. Over the past few days, the hashrate has dropped down to somewhere in the region of 85 EH/s. Looking at the last 100 blocks, it took just under 19 hours to mine them, meaning an average of 11.4 minutes, or 11 minutes and 24 seconds, per block.

We are currently on block 622,203. The next difficulty adjustment is due at block 622,944, which is 741 blocks away. At an average of 10 minutes per block, that would take 5 days, 3 hours, 30 minutes to reach. With an average block time of 11.4 minutes, it will instead take 5 days, 20 hours, 47 minutes to reach.

So with the recent drop in hashrate, the next difficulty adjustment has been pushed around 17 hours further away. If the hashrate stabilizes around these levels, then we will likely see a drop in difficulty of around 20%.

Note that this is kind of circular logic - we have no way of calculating the hashrate, and simply infer its value from knowing the current difficulty and the current average block time.

You are right when you say that the speed of finding a block often exceeds the specified 10 minutes. But this excess is usually only 0-2 minutes (rarely a little more).
But my concern is that if the network hashrate drops by tens of percent, the block production time may double or even more.

The only thing that calms me is the thought that if mining is unprofitable, then whole farms will stop working, not parts of farms. Accordingly, the remaining mining farms will be able to perform calculations of the same level. But in this case, it may turn out that the same mining farm will add more than 6-8 blocks in a row.

[o_e_l_e_o]

You are right when you say that the speed of finding a block often exceeds the specified 10 minutes. But this excess is usually only 0-2 minutes (rarely a little more).

Not so. Block times of significantly less than 10 minutes are common. If we look at even just the last 10 blocks, there was a gap of only 24 seconds between blocks 623,805 and 623,806, and then a further gap of only 22 seconds until block 823,607. There was only 1 minute 19 seconds between blocks 623,808 and 623,809, 2 minutes and 3 seconds between 623,811 and 623,812, and 1 minute 12 seconds between 623,812 and 623,813. And that's all just in the last 10 blocks. Short block times are common.

The only thing that calms me is the thought that if mining is unprofitable, then whole farms will stop working, not parts of farms.

If mining becomes unprofitable for some and whole farms stop mining, then it simply means that when the difficulty next adjusts that mining will become more profitable again. It is a self correcting process.

[ntsdm1]

In the near future (in may of this year) there will be a halving in the Bitcoin network, which will lead to a decrease in the reward for block mining from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25. This will reduce the revenue of miners by half. Now the crypto market has fallen heavily following the global economy and it does not seem that it will be able to recover and the price of Bitcoin will grow significantly by may 2020.
All this can lead to a serious drop in the network's mining power. The difficulty of the network is recalculated once every 14 days (or after 2016 extracted blocks), and we may find ourselves in a situation that miners will take much longer to solve the tasks necessary for them to be given the right to form a block of the Bitcoin network.
Do you think it is possible in may 2020 that a block of Bitcoin will be mined for longer than 10 minutes?

Specifically in may this may actually happen but then the outdated miners will be replaced by new ones and bitcoin will be all right)

[hermawan9416]

It probably will. Over time, the duration will only increase.

[pooya87]

the thing about hashrate is that we really have no way of measuring it accurately. all the data and charts that you see on different websites is a big estimation with a lot of room for error. we have seen multiple times that they even report outright wrong values.
as an example over the past week we saw them report a big drop in hashrate while today they are reporting pretty much the same hashrate as before (~108 E) while price is still 40% lower than it was before!

[FontSeli]

the thing about hashrate is that we really have no way of measuring it accurately. all the data and charts that you see on different websites is a big estimation with a lot of room for error. we have seen multiple times that they even report outright wrong values.
as an example over the past week we saw them report a big drop in hashrate while today they are reporting pretty much the same hashrate as before (~108 E) while price is still 40% lower than it was before!

I agree with you that sites display information about the hashrate of the network, as well as about the hashrate of each pool, not always correctly and accurately. Therefore, such small hashrate drawdowns can be attributed to monitoring errors. But in may, something more may happen and some miners will disable their equipment if mining is unprofitable. This is not fatal, the system will balance itself, but some time before recalculating the network complexity, block mining can take much longer than 10 minutes.

[pooya87]

the thing about hashrate is that we really have no way of measuring it accurately. all the data and charts that you see on different websites is a big estimation with a lot of room for error. we have seen multiple times that they even report outright wrong values.
as an example over the past week we saw them report a big drop in hashrate while today they are reporting pretty much the same hashrate as before (~108 E) while price is still 40% lower than it was before!

I agree with you that sites display information about the hashrate of the network, as well as about the hashrate of each pool, not always correctly and accurately. Therefore, such small hashrate drawdowns can be attributed to monitoring errors. But in may, something more may happen and some miners will disable their equipment if mining is unprofitable. This is not fatal, the system will balance itself, but some time before recalculating the network complexity, block mining can take much longer than 10 minutes.

of course there are miners who will leave whenever price drops but i don't believe it is this drastic to cause any worries, specifically when we see hashrate goes back up without price going back up first.
i am not a fan of conspiracy theories but the reason for such hashrate drops during a price (specially when they don't make sense and then jump back up again) could be a big miner trying to manipulate things and force small miners to exit and push the difficulty down before they come back themselves and mine at a lower difficulty.

[FontSeli]

of course there are miners who will leave whenever price drops but i don't believe it is this drastic to cause any worries, specifically when we see hashrate goes back up without price going back up first.
i am not a fan of conspiracy theories but the reason for such hashrate drops during a price (specially when they don't make sense and then jump back up again) could be a big miner trying to manipulate things and force small miners to exit and push the difficulty down before they come back themselves and mine at a lower difficulty.

It depends on what is a radical change for you. There are owners of Bitcoin who make dozens of payments every day. In case of a significant increase in the mining time of a single block, commissions will also significantly increase, which will hit very hard those who make a lot of payments in Bitcoins every day. This is certainly not fatal, since it will be temporary, but people will either have to wait or incur additional costs.