Stake.com odds

[OmegaStarScream]

Let's say I have 3.0 ETH or LTC for instance, the initial bet is 0.0001 with a 20% increase on loss.

To know exactly how many losses in a row I need in order to lose the whole 3.0 amount, I've written this:

Code:

           double initialBetAmount = 0.0001; 
            double sumLoss = 0.0000;
            int possibleBets = 0;

            do
            {
                initialBetAmount += ((double)initialBetAmount / 100) * 20; // increase the initialBetAmount by 20%
                sumLoss += initialBetAmount; //sum the losses
           
                possibleBets++;
            

            } while (sumLoss < 3.0);
            Console.WriteLine("Possible losses in a row: " + (possibleBets-1) );

Output:

Possible losses in a row: 46

And based on that, here are the results I've got from the ChatBot (odds command):

Odds of losing 46 bets in a row at 18.0000%: Once every 9216.43 bets.

So, for those who are familiar with Stake or dice games in general, are my calculations above anywhere near accurate? Because they look a bit unrealistic to me.

[1714888137]

1714888137

[1714888137]

1714888137

[1714888137]

1714888137

[1714888137]

1714888137

[dbshck]

So, for those who are familiar with Stake or dice games in general, are my calculations above anywhere near accurate? Because they look a bit unrealistic to me.

It's correct. Why do you think it's unrealistic?

And based on that, here are the results I've got from the ChatBot (odds command):

Odds of losing 46 bets in a row at 18.0000%: Once every 9216.43 bets.

Perhaps you misunderstood that chance percentage on the bot. Did you mean 82% chance of winning (18% chance of losing)? Yeah, that would result in once every 1.8 x 10^34 bets.

[OmegaStarScream]

It's correct. Why do you think it's unrealistic?

Odds of losing 46 bets in a row at 18.0000%: Once every 9216.43 bets.

Perhaps you misunderstood that chance percentage on the bot. Did you mean 82% chance of winning (18% chance of losing)? Yeah, that would result in once every 1.8 x 10^34 bets.

Thanks for the confirmation. I meant an 18% win chance (5.5x payout). I just find it a bit strange because it seems like this could put the player on "profit" almost all the time (at least for the long run). I understand that there is no way to know when are you going to get these red streaks, but still... the more balance you have, the higher your chance to recover the lost amount and continue betting. Am I missing something?

[peonminer]

That once every 9216.43 will come a lot more often than you imagine. I've ran martingale with low bet amounts on there countless times, a few times I've lucked out and cashed out before the drop. Most of the time though, the odds catch up to the bankroll and wipe the account. Followed by the frantic higher bets with higher odds to catch up. Usually ends up in a bust. It is still gambling with a house edge, after all. I only use the chatbot and a calculator though to calculate my odds and how many losses in a row I can sustain before recovery. Another fun strat I run is martingale with 3.33x payout. I only run that when the bankroll is moot to me. I agree though, the higher the bankroll, the better chance you have of sustaining the red streaks. It looks like it will all eventually catch up to you though and wipe it out.

[qomariah95]

I now prefer playing Crash, where I have a good strategy. I placed cashout 3x-5x and added a bet of 75% when I lost.

I think this strategy or opportunity is good for me, of course, for others I might not know. But it can be tried.