Sans monetary stimulus and injections, how do you respond to an economic crisis?

[Darker45]

Governments are now trying to protect their economies in the face of the COVID-19 issue. While the virus itself is not highly fatal, its effect to the economy is much worse. It could kill it. As a response, trillions in fiat are now being injected by the governments to keep the liquidity and to make sure the economy does not crash.

The people from the cryptocurrency community are bashing all these efforts. Accordingly, this kind of economic approach will devalue fiat. The bigger the stimulus, the lower the value of a currency goes. Moreover, it might cause an intolerably high inflation. In general, this will cause fiat to crumble down.

However, what choice do we have in the face of this economic crisis? If we do away with all these questionable actions, what do you propose? I have read countless of criticisms which sound really brilliant but I haven't encounter a sound suggestion along with them. You cannot just say Bitcoin is made for this, we should instead shift to Bitcoin, and so on and so forth.

Thanks!

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[20kevin20]

May sound like a conspiracy but I am pretty confident the governments have their backup plan in case fiat goes down. There are market cycles always repeating and our authorities know that very well. Hence, there should be some Plan B undercard. My question is whether they'll pull it during this recession or after it ends.

I don't think there is a perfect solution to a recession. If there was one, it would've been used long ago and recessions wouldn't have been a thing anymore. What surprises me and makes me wonder how will this recession look like is the fact that the USD inflation is climbing up while usually the opposite should happen. Purchasing power is lost which makes the free $1k checks worth much less than they would've been 2-3 months ago.

Bitcoin is not the solution either. Not for now, at least. And I doubt any government will ever suggest using it as a refuge. Gold isn't the solution either. I believe governments will sooner or later pull out the Plan B card which might be their own version of digital currencies.

The world is buried in debt. Things just can't go well this time and we have to let things happen the natural way. The economy needs a disaster because until in the past decade it only grew on an artificial, non-existent amount of money no country in this world would ever be able to pay back.

But those at the top of the pyramid knew it. They are much more intelligent than us and they surely do have a plan for all this thing going on.

[Ucy]

I believe some with conscience know the truth, and want it implemented but are afraid it would drastically change societies. Those who choose the easy way will have themselves to be blamed in the end. I am not against handout to people who need them. Just wish they will be used for "only good things".    If you list the "good things" people should spend on, would they believe? I just hope the believers do what is right.
I prefer the decentralized approach to things. It is much safer in my opinion

[Hydrogen]

It boils down to basic problem solving.

• People have difficulty self isolating due to food and shopping limitations, needing to work to pay their bills
• Businesses are forced to shut down temporarily to prevent the pandemic from spreading making it difficult for them to pay liabilities: taxes/bills/wages

This being a bitcoin forum let's try to envision a decentralized, open source, approach.

Crowdsourced Solutions
The state could offer cash prizes in exchange for crowdsourced solutions to address corona virus. Most of the knowledge and expertise surrounding the containment of pandemics was developed decades ago. It is possible new and better methods could be found. An open forum approach could also contribute towards information being better distributed and people becoming better educated and prepared on how to cope with such issues in the future.

Decentralized Empowering of Communities Rather Than Monolithic Big Government
Communities and regions are different in terms of disposition and needs. Big government soutions tend to be one size fits all. Rather than the state simply throwing money at issues as if our status quo. It might be better to empower individual communities to become more self reliant and independent in terms of electricity, transportation, food and other necessities.

[Darker45]

May sound like a conspiracy but I am pretty confident the governments have their backup plan in case fiat goes down. There are market cycles always repeating and our authorities know that very well. Hence, there should be some Plan B undercard. My question is whether they'll pull it during this recession or after it ends.

This may generally be bad but it is certainly advantageous to the government authorities that they seem to hold the power. They print the money, they themselves determine the amount and time, they are also the ones creating monetary policies, and so on and so forth. I mean, they are at the Mt. Olympus. They decide on things. My point is that they must have until Plan Z and won't allow their own fiat creation to end up into the waste bin.

It boils down to basic problem solving.

• People have difficulty self isolating due to food and shopping limitations, needing to work to pay their bills
• Businesses are forced to shut down temporarily to prevent the pandemic from spreading making it difficult for them to pay liabilities: taxes/bills/wages

This being a bitcoin forum let's try to envision a decentralized, open source, approach.

I agree with the couple of basic problems at hand. Notwithstanding the fact that this all started as a health issue, things are getting worse in the economic aspect.

By the way, do you consider the urgency of the moment? I mean, do we have to stick to our paradigm in times like these? Or is this a time to appreciate the pros of centralization? Admit it or not, centralization and decentralization have their own fair share of pros and cons.

Of course, needs, circumstances, ground situations, and so on are never centralized; they vary from one local to another. But then the central bank or government is the sole source of a much-needed stimulus when a crisis like this happens. And to make sure the smaller government units remain functional and the people themselves are kept protected, the central authority will have to decide on injecting huge amount of money from god knows where.

[sheenshane]

Injecting fiat is an option that is compared to the band-aid. It would only provide temporary solutions. But if you won't let the scar heal naturally by having a healthy option, then the infection would still spread worst.

Injecting fiat is also the easiest way. But its long term effect would ruin the economy and will cause high inflation soon.

But then again, the pandemic virus is still something to cure. The globe has no choice but to cure and fight it until it will rid of and stay away. Even economically speaking, they are losing. IMO

[amishmanish]

Who else thinks that this is a very well thought out Chinese move to finally shift the center of global power decisively in its favor. Post the industrial revolution, every geo-straegic shake up has been the result of a global war. War by their very nature do not need such measures because ultimately they are a boon to the economy. More production, a highly committed workforce, easy market (Ammunition, fuel, clothes, rations, weapons, transport).

In a linked economy like today's, a real war can be very damaging. China cannot afford an open war. So they come up with this inexplicably virulent, hitherto unknown virus. Manage a controlled outbreak for it to seem authentic. Deploy everything from hospitals to sanitary workers in full-hazmat suits in a swift response that could have only been the result of meticulous pre-planning.

They then export it to the world and boom..everything goes into lockdown. That is when very conveniently, the "World's factory" comes back to normal. In response, West does what it does best after years of servitude to growth and financial engineering. It is going to "print" more money, devaluing their currencies in the process while spending that money to buy Chinese medical supplies in huge numbers, having long relegated the role of manufacturing to China. I don't think the world governments have a plan Z or a even a plan B. Its only the dragon that has all the plans.

The actions of the Chinese always remind me of Talia-Al-Ghul in Dark Knight rises:

You see, it's the slow knife, the knife that takes it's time, the knife that waits years without forgetting, then slips quietly between the bones. That's the knife, that cuts deepest.

The chinese knife has been waiting for over a century now since the humiliation of the opium wars and the "Cutting of the Chinese melon". You guys really think the people who invented gunpowder, rocketry, paper and gave the British the idea of a Civil Services were actually going to let it go?

[fiulpro]

I think the most important thing is

Sustainability

We should have been prepared for a thing like this in the first place. If government spends more on healthcare and less on wars , the death rates will be far less . . .
They won't have to ignore sick people like they have been doing in many countries...

People should also be ready for a situation like this in the future and change their lifestyle.

[amishmanish]

We should have been prepared for a thing like this in the first place. If government spends more on healthcare and less on wars , the death rates will be far less . . .
They won't have to ignore sick people like they have been doing in many countries...

People should also be ready for a situation like this in the future and change their lifestyle.

It is pretty much impossible to prepare for a situation where such a virus mutates in the wild completely unknown and makes human to human transmission possible within months rather than the usual 2-3 years that it takes. That is why it is most likely engineered.

Healthcare in Italy is probably amongst the best in world, yet the struggle is completely due to the novelty and fast spread of the virus. The only way the death rates will come down is if people take responsibility and stop running off and dancing in the streets when told to hole up.

[Febo]

Who else thinks that this is a very well thought out Chinese move to finally shift the center of global power decisively in its favor. Post the industrial revolution, every geo-straegic shake up has been the result of a global war. War by their very nature do not need such measures because ultimately they are a boon to the economy. More production, a highly committed workforce, easy market (Ammunition, fuel, clothes, rations, weapons, transport).

They are not called Peoples republic of China to kill Chinese. Over 4000 Chinese will die out of Corona virus. It is out of question they would ever put economy before their citizens. They are not Corporations Republic of China.

[LeGaulois]

...

And why couldn't it be coming from the USA? What (economical) reasons behind? I don't know the pharma industry firstly but it could be geo-politic, knowing the country is an oligarchy and not a democracy https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/oligarchy-in-the-united-states/C23926DB2E90E340C4DC2B2BCDEEE27C

Now if you think about it:

1-Who were the first countries hit by the virus? Iran and China.
2-Who are the biggest enemies of the USA? Iran and China

Coincidence? hmmm
(Just a reminder, the CIA did have a plan to make something like the World trade center attack, to have an excuse for a war against Cuba. Until the president realizes the plan and fires the man in charge. What I want to mean here is this country is totally able to create diabolic plans like this one)

It is perhaps an invention on their part to strengthen their position as world leaders and to reinforce their system of capitalism. To damage the countries I talked about above, for the same reasons you mentioned regarding China. (Can't afford a pure war)

China accused the US to have created the virus. As well, do you remember the topic here not long ago about counterfeit Chinese banknotes found in the US? Think about it.

There is this book https://books.google.fr/books/about/Le_nouveau_rapport_de_la_CIA.html?id=Me1ePgAACAAJ&source=kp_book_description&redir_esc=y

Translating a blog article about it:

The prediction of a global pandemic is surprisingly accurate. It was in an article entitled "the possible outbreak of a global pandemic" that CIA experts had described a scenario very close to Covid-19.

They predicted that "a new, virulent, highly contagious human respiratory disease, for which there is no adequate treatment, could develop into a global pandemic. "Surprisingly, the report even predicted the areas and circumstances in which a new virus would emerge: "If a pandemic disease occurs, the report even predicted the areas and circumstances in which a new virus would emerge. It is likely to be in a densely populated area with close proximity between humans and animals. As in China and South-East Asia, where people live in contact with livestock. "The breeding practices at work in these areas are vectors of viral contagion among animal populations and transmission to humans," the authors point out, recalling the example of H5N1 influenza.
Covid-19: Could the epidemic have been prevented?
They added that there would have been a late identification of the disease in case of a lack of adequate means for its detection.
Analysts feared the risk of a pandemic.

"IT WOULD TAKE WEEKS FOR LABORATORIES TO PROVIDE DEFINITIVE RESULTS CONFIRMING THE EXISTENCE OF A DISEASE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MUTATE INTO A PANDEMIC."
It should be remembered that the prediction proved realistic since the first cases of Covid-19 were recorded on 31 December in Wuhan, China. It then took a month later for WHO to declare a state of a health emergency.
The authors added that the presence of asymptomatic patients would be an aggravating factor:
 
"DESPITE RESTRICTIONS ON INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL, TRAVELLERS WITH FEW OR NO SYMPTOMS COULD CARRY THE VIRUS TO OTHER CONTINENTS".
According to the CIA, a global economic shock will shake the world with "degradation of vital infrastructure and global economic losses".
Finally, the CIA had tried to reassure by recalling that American research centers were working on a vaccine that would reduce the risk of such a pandemic. In 2014, the National Security Council (NSC) of the White House formed a pandemic unit with world-renowned experts. However, this unit was abolished in May 2018 by the Trump administration.

https://www.lemaghrebdz.com/?page=detail_actualite&rubrique=Internationnal&id=99387

[figmentofmyass]

And why couldn't it be coming from the USA?

...

There is this book https://books.google.fr/books/about/Le_nouveau_rapport_de_la_CIA.html?id=Me1ePgAACAAJ&source=kp_book_description&redir_esc=y

Translating a blog article about it:

The prediction of a global pandemic is surprisingly accurate. It was in an article entitled "the possible outbreak of a global pandemic" that CIA experts had described a scenario very close to Covid-19.

They predicted that "a new, virulent, highly contagious human respiratory disease, for which there is no adequate treatment, could develop into a global pandemic. "Surprisingly, the report even predicted the areas and circumstances in which a new virus would emerge: "If a pandemic disease occurs, the report even predicted the areas and circumstances in which a new virus would emerge. It is likely to be in a densely populated area with close proximity between humans and animals. As in China and South-East Asia, where people live in contact with livestock. "The breeding practices at work in these areas are vectors of viral contagion among animal populations and transmission to humans," the authors point out, recalling the example of H5N1 influenza.

of course the prediction was accurate. it's literally the archetypal "outbreak" story, with elements from recent avian/swine flu and SARS outbreaks mixed in. it's more common sense than anything else, given the zoonotic nature of pandemic viruses in recent years. huge livestock breeding industries and marketplaces and huge dense populations is a recipe for an eventual viral outbreak.

vegans have been talking about this shit for decades from a public health angle, at least since mad cow disease emerged in humans in the 80s.

the USA was utterly unprepared for this pandemic, which supports the idea that the government never saw it coming.

[bits4books]

The crisis is not a bug but a feature of a healthy economy. 10 years of bull market isnt normal. Like a strong Cup of coffee after a good night's sleep is invigorating and inspires new strength.
Inefficient market participants will leave the market during the crisis and make room for new players. The strongest will shake themselves up and find new ways to improve and optimize their actions.
 The main thing in a crisis is to correctly calculate company capabilities and be ready for the "eternal growth" to begin again

[Arkann]

All businessmen are accustomed to earning superprofits, while creating all the conditions in order to receive as much income as possible from their production and enterprises.  But in any case, a situation occurs when it comes time to slow down.  But no one wants to reduce their income and therefore do everything to minimize losses due to ordinary people.  Based on this, I believe that any economic crisis is primarily displayed not on business, but on an ordinary person.  In any case, you need to carry out the right leadership with the right approach to the problem, because during the World Economic Crisis in 2008, it was China that showed very good growth rates for its economy.  So we still have to learn from these people how to work.

[DooMAD]

Probably an unpopular opinion, but what appears to be happening is that many of the primarily capitalist countries are taking a large step towards socialist policies, at least in the interim, because that's what seems to be working.

*dives for cover from impending gunfire*

[Hydrogen]

By the way, do you consider the urgency of the moment? I mean, do we have to stick to our paradigm in times like these? Or is this a time to appreciate the pros of centralization? Admit it or not, centralization and decentralization have their own fair share of pros and cons.

Of course, needs, circumstances, ground situations, and so on are never centralized; they vary from one local to another. But then the central bank or government is the sole source of a much-needed stimulus when a crisis like this happens. And to make sure the smaller government units remain functional and the people themselves are kept protected, the central authority will have to decide on injecting huge amount of money from god knows where.

Centralization is merely another word for: single point of failure.  

Had food production, drug production, refining of raw materials, energy generation and overall infrastructure been more decentralized by design. The public could be in a better position to self isolate and wait out the virus.

Stimulus will cost trillions. Its an inefficient and non ideal method of solving basic issues allowing people to self isolate. Especially with banks, governments and corporations being in vulnerable positions. If communities were self sufficient. Grew their own food, owned their own land, produced their own energy. They wouldn't need a massive stimulus bailout. I think that's a potential path to consider for the future.

Who else thinks that this is a very well thought out Chinese move to finally shift the center of global power decisively in its favor.

The actions of the Chinese always remind me of Talia-Al-Ghul in Dark Knight rises:

You see, it's the slow knife, the knife that takes it's time, the knife that waits years without forgetting, then slips quietly between the bones. That's the knife, that cuts deepest.

The chinese knife has been waiting for over a century now since the humiliation of the opium wars and the "Cutting of the Chinese melon". You guys really think the people who invented gunpowder, rocketry, paper and gave the British the idea of a Civil Services were actually going to let it go?

If it was a deliberate move on china's behalf, their efforts appear rushed and disorganized. It reflects desperation, more than carefully weighed or planned strategy imo. Rather than guaranteeing china victory, it could carry an opposite effect. People may blame china when they lose relatives and family members. China could be blamed when jobs and lost, bills can't be paid. Shortages of food, water and basic supplies.

Whoever is in charge of things would appear to be isolated from average everyday people. Perhaps enough so that they made major miscalculations. Not only in their handling of the virus but also in the way they have the media covering things.

[Meowth05]

I propose that we should use cryptocurrency as a mean to give financial to people for relief operation. This ensures that the circulation of fiat will not be affected and there will less chance that a virus is contracted when you use digital currency.

[abhiseshakana]

Probably an unpopular opinion, but what appears to be happening is that many of the primarily capitalist countries are taking a large step towards socialist policies, at least in the interim, because that's what seems to be working.

*dives for cover from impending gunfire*

Some economists argue that now America is implementing an economist at war, since Trump rules the world conditions in the escalation of the war, especially between American Super Power and Great Power China. There are about 7 types of war, 1 using military weapons while six in the other form. The goal of Trump and the capitalists behind Trump is world hegemony.

Outbreaks and economic conditions at this time is the right time for the United States to print money because in addition to circumstance also because the interest rate FED Reference becomes zero as in 2008. America needs a war to print new value dollars because old dollars have been printed thousands of times overvalue in the real sector. Or more paper than the underlying business. Like the year 2008 when banknotes were printed dozens of times the amount of property built. Therefore there must be a reset value, there must be a bailout of all financial systems, the old paper is invalid.

For new money printing, the lord of war warriors such as in 1929, the economy and shares were only 20 percent, down 80 percent and in the 30s there was a recession, the war was used as the solution as well as reset value. so America calculated the cost of war and then printed money from thin air. Either way, America must win.

[Renampun]

monetary stimulus is the best policy during a crisis...
currently, all countries are faced with the tough choice of "lockdown or not", Countries that do Lockdown must naturally prepare an allocation of funds to fulfill the lives of their citizens during the Lockdown period. I am not a Donald Trump fan but I really appreciate his policies during this Pandemic period https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/11/21175953/trump-coronavirus-speech-response-policies.