[BitCoinTalk][COVID-19] Grim Reality

[Welsh]

He is suggesting the amount of inactive accounts will go up 2 or 3 or 5 fold.

Which probably won't be the case. This could happen of course, but I wouldn't say its likely. The fact that hackers were brought into the conclusion also seems to be a huge jump. Unless, the hackers have information on you, then I would argue that a active person is far more susceptible to hacks because of social engineering, and various other attacks. There's a big misconception that there's a huge load of elite hackers out there that can work on practically no information, and hack users accounts. However, this isn't the case as I would argue most "hackers" are script kiddies, and the other hackers would likely attack the platform, and not individual users unless they were high level targets. For example, such as Satoshi's account or email, thus the account here has been deactivated. If we were to expect a large amount of accounts under attack, then it would likely be through a database leak, rather than individual attacks. Individual attacks would take far too long, and might even be impossible.

By the way, there’s still a lot of fuzz around how the death rate is being calculated in different countries, and how it’s evolution is not necessarily due to clinical reasons, but rather statistical ones. For example, Germany seems to consider amongst the deceased only those where the Coronavirus was the primal cause of death. Other countries are considering those that, having died for any reason, had the Coronavirus.

Additionally, the more tests that are extended over to mild symptomatic cases, the less the death rate ratio. Spain is currently focused on testing those with clear symptoms, but not so much on those with mild symptoms, thus the death rate is higher, and will decrease as the test is extended on to the milder cases at some point.

This has been something that I've questioned, and many others have. For example, people who are infected with the disease, but are dying from cancer are included in their statistics. However, it isn't clear what actually killed them, and they're treating it as a contribution to other diseases because of it putting more strain on the immune system, however in actuality it may have not been a contributing factor at all. The death rate might well be blown up due to these reasons, because it doesn't seem like they're waiting for a autopsy to confirm their conclusions as it seems that the statistics are up dated as soon as someone is positive, and then later died. I'm wondering whether the statistics upon review after this settles down will be greatly misrepresented.

[Timelord2067]

He is suggesting the amount of inactive accounts will go up 2 or 3 or 5 fold.

Indeed I am - thank you for noticing.


A couple of people have focused on DT1, this isn't about them - my example went down the pecking order DT1, then DT2 then non DT ranked members.  I could have easily (If I had a breakdown of the numbers) looked at Legendary, Hero ... down the line.  I also mentioned that although statistically it could be x of this rank, y of that rank and so on none of this can be said for certain and could be x^2.3 of this rank and y^0.9 of that rank.

I can't filter who might have disappeared from the forum because of the virus but you can get some hints by just check regularly Top 1000 merit receivers who were not active the past 30 days. Then you know who is "gone" for a while.

This is a perfect example of what I am looking for in this thread - evidence that a user stopped posting at this particular time, not after the storm has passed and they then don't come back (if at all) for a very long time.

Then I should start updating this list more often.
We have a really bad flu here in Norway (not the corona one) and many people die from this one too, you can't focus only on covid-19, accidents happen every day.
Stay safe people

If there was an epidemic of people suddenly dieing from car crashes, or ten, a hundred fold deaths from cigarettes, then I might have chosen to look at that.  But the reality is there is a sudden spike in deaths in our global village which can be attributed to the COVID-19 virus and its spread amongst the entire population.

Ok, so I’ve been in contact with a confirmed COVID-19 positive over the past 10 days, but have not developed any symptoms (this is true, and fortunately the person is recovering fine). Should I not post in the coming days, either the synthons have made their appearance, or I’ve got an overwhelming amount of work to do, even on lockdown (although in the latter scenario I could always pop a post or two every now and then).

 

I hope you and your acquaintance are making a speedy recovery.  Please keep us updated if you can.

By the way, there’s still a lot of fuzz around how the death rate is being calculated in different countries, and how it’s evolution is not necessarily due to clinical reasons, but rather statistical ones. For example, Germany seems to consider amongst the deceased only those where the Coronavirus was the primal cause of death. Other countries are considering those that, having died for any reason, had the Coronavirus.

The seven links I posted in the OP are all I could find on statistical data of actual transmission and fatalities, the wikipedia entry is at pains to point out the inaccuracies due to a lack of clear information as is the W.H.O. site with more focus on washing your hands and safe social distancing practices.

If anyone has hard statistical data links they can share, I will gladly amend the OP to reflect the known facts.

Additionally, the more tests that are extended over to mild symptomatic cases, the less the death rate ratio. Spain is currently focused on testing those with clear symptoms, but not so much on those with mild symptoms, thus the death rate is higher, and will decrease as the test is extended on to the milder cases at some point.

I don't think this pandemic will result in a significant change in the number being hacked or reactivated.

Nor do I.  I also tend to think bitcointalk members are younger than average and would probably have a lower mortality rate than the general population--but I have no data to support this, just my impressions based on experience.  

Being more socially aware can be a good thing when self isolating and the evidence suggest the older you are, the more likely this virus will claim your life.

I don't know how many members have died since I registered, either.  There have been a couple that the community was made aware of (like Zepher), but unless a member has on-forum friends that they know personally and someone notifies the community of a death, there's really no way to tell who's died.  And the only reason I'm writing this is because 600+ deaths of forum members is weird to ponder.  

Incagold was a person in my workplace who had been investing heavily in bitcoin (gold and silver bullion) for his self managed superannuation fund.  I introduced him to BCT but he only logged in a couple of times before he was involved in an accident and died.  Because he never posted, his profile just looks line any other UID that registered, logged-in a couple of times then got archived.

And yeah, OP.  More border closings are probably going to happen, and I'm a little surprised countries haven't made that move sooner.

Europe closing it's borders then the member states doing likewise is a significant move.


As always all good points, I'll just focucs on this point:

This kind of meta-analysis should be sought after in order to ascertain the definitive death rate.

My intention with this thread is to alert people here that there will be some users who may just stop posting during this time, some we know well, others we may never have read even a single word of.

We shoudn't consider a Legendary (or a DT1/DT2) user to be dead from the COVID-19 if they fall silent.

All good points in your post, I hadn't intended to focus on DT1, if you have that impression, then I'm sorry you thought that.  DT1 accounts are more valuable for resale once hacked - kenzawak is an example of a multiple hacked account.

There's a lot of users that keep a eye on "high" level profiles on this forum. When I returned to the forum from a period of activity I had several users contact me to provide a signed message from addresses that I had previously posted on the forum. Dating all the way back to 2015.

This is excellent news, it just needs to be tempered with the known fact that if a user awakens in a few years time who fell silent now, the user may well have died and the account has been compromised.

If a hacker suspects a particular account became inactive at this time, then they could put more effort into hacking that account unnoticed.

As for the estimation of the deaths, that would be assuming that the spread of age on the forum is the same as the statistics in other countries. The statistics are chance of death will widely vary due to the fact that Bitcoin, the internet, and cryptocurrencies in general apply to a certain individual, and I would estimate that the younger generation is far more likely to be interested than those that are in their seventies plus. That also brings up the fact that there's likely a lot of programmers, and other users which can work from home, and significantly reduce the chance of getting infected. Unfortunately, due to the varying circumstances you cannot apply the same statistics of the current virus to the forum users.

From the scarce hard data I found, the younger you are, the less likely you are to contract let alone die from COVID-19 so the game bois can safely keep playing minecraft in their mom's bedrooms.

I would estimate that the majority of accounts that can be hacked, have already been hacked due to the database compromises in 2015. Most active users would have likely changed their credentials or their credentials were already good enough to withstand the attacks that a malicious user could've performed on the hashed data.

How does the saying go, the price of freedom is eternal vigilance...

[philipma1957]

wiki has estimates on h1n1 during 2009-2010

175,000-575,000 dead 💀


700,000,000-1,400,000,000 infected.

lets pretend

575,000/700,000,000

worst death rate comes from that.


lets pretend

175,000/1,400,000,000

best death rate comes from that.

so that flu was 1 of 1200 worst death rate.

and 1 of 8500 best death rate.

I had h1n1 in fall of 2009 at the age of 52.

I had a 104.3 fever with chillibain symptoms for 10 hours.

worst flu i ever had.

so if this is 3 to 7 x as bad as h1n1.

we are 1 of 160 at worst to 1 of 2800 at best.

note did the math in my head so i could be off.

but if 1 of 160 people die off world wide that would really be bad. and yeah over 500 people would die here.

if 1 in 2800 die world wide maybe 30 people will die here.

[Timelord2067]

700,000,000-1,400,000,000 infected.

lets pretend

575,000/700,000,000

Thanks for your thoughts and estimates - I'm assuming in the first part of your post that the second set of numbers above should read 375,000/700,000,000 which would be half of the first value.

[hacker1001101001]

700,000,000-1,400,000,000 infected.

lets pretend

575,000/700,000,000

I'm assuming in the first part of your post that the second set of numbers above should read 375,000/700,000,000 which would be half of the first value.

I don't think so, they are just comparing the best and the worst death case scenarios and where 575,000 are death out of 700,000,000 infected peoples is the worst case.

[YOSHIE]

I don't think so, they are just comparing the best and the worst death case scenarios and where 575,000 are death out of 700,000,000 infected peoples is the worst case.

For the past few days the government and doctors in my country issued a statement that the COVID-19 virus could be transmitted and infected through fiat money used for daily shopping., Because we do not know the money we have used has been used by people infected with the virus, if this happens every day that is infected with the COVID-19 virus will multiply doubled.

Doctor's advice, when we trade / buy with banknotes, it is necessary to wash hands, perhaps, which are held and touched by positive people attacked by a virus, quickly spread to people who hold fiat money.

The only way if this could be infected and killed by the COVID-19 virus, when in contact with fiat money automatically all people in this world must use the crypto currency in the sale / purchase transaction, in my opinion, it is to prevent increased casualties.

[philipma1957]

700,000,000-1,400,000,000 infected.

lets pretend

575,000/700,000,000

I'm assuming in the first part of your post that the second set of numbers above should read 375,000/700,000,000 which would be half of the first value.

I don't think so, they are just comparing the best and the worst death case scenarios and where 575,000 are death out of 700,000,000 infected peoples is the worst case.

yep  4 numbers on wiki are

dead  175,000
dead  575,000

infected  700,000,000
infected  1,400,000,000


so  175,000/1,400,000,000  is the lowest death %    0.000125 death rate     x 3 =  0.000375 death rate

and 575,000/700,000,000 is the highest death%     0.0008214 death rate      x 7 = 0.00575  death rate

I have read this virus is just as contagious and is 3x to 7x as deadly.

So  if :

   500,000,000 infected   187,500 low death rate      2,874,900  high death rate
1,000,000,000 infected   375,000 low death rate      5,749,800  high death rate
1,500,000,000 infected   562,500 low death rate      8,624,700  high death rate.


Those are six simple models  pick your poison  huge difference in the numbers.

that 8,624,700 is  a crazy bad number.

On a more personal note my wife has a first cousin that is a nurse she lives in Long Island New York she and her husband have it.

[Timelord2067]

For the past few days the government and doctors in my country issued a statement that the COVID-19 virus could be transmitted and infected through fiat money used for daily shopping., Because we do not know the money we have used has been used by people infected with the virus, if this happens every day that is infected with the COVID-19 virus will multiply doubled.

Doctor's advice, when we trade / buy with banknotes, it is necessary to wash hands, perhaps, which are held and touched by positive people attacked by a virus, quickly spread to people who hold fiat money.

The only way if this could be infected and killed by the COVID-19 virus, when in contact with fiat money automatically all people in this world must use the crypto currency in the sale / purchase transaction, in my opinion, it is to prevent increased casualties.

I actually received an email from a coffee shop chain here in Oz that said their employees will wash their hands after handling cash (as well as other time stipulated in the email), however the next day (today) said coffee shop chain's counter staff asked for credit card payment as they were reluctant to handle cash.

[philipma1957]

For the past few days the government and doctors in my country issued a statement that the COVID-19 virus could be transmitted and infected through fiat money used for daily shopping., Because we do not know the money we have used has been used by people infected with the virus, if this happens every day that is infected with the COVID-19 virus will multiply doubled.

Doctor's advice, when we trade / buy with banknotes, it is necessary to wash hands, perhaps, which are held and touched by positive people attacked by a virus, quickly spread to people who hold fiat money.

The only way if this could be infected and killed by the COVID-19 virus, when in contact with fiat money automatically all people in this world must use the crypto currency in the sale / purchase transaction, in my opinion, it is to prevent increased casualties.

I actually received an email from a coffee shop chain here in Oz that said their employees will wash their hands after handling cash (as well as other time stipulated in the email), however the next day (today) said coffee shop chain's counter staff asked for credit card payment as they were reluctant to handle cash.

Yeah a cc stuck into a machine is safe for the teller.

Just remember to clean your hands after pressing keys on the cc machine

[skarais]

For the past few days the government and doctors in my country issued a statement that the COVID-19 virus could be transmitted and infected through fiat money used for daily shopping.

Transmission not only with paper money but other objects around us that have been contaminated with covid-19. It is true that paper money is a very vulnerable medium of transmission because it is used regularly by everyone and I'm sure not only Covid-19 may be contaminated but there are many other germs and bacteria.

There are many media that can transmit disease to someone without our full awareness, but if transmission can occur through direct contact with objects contaminated by viruses then wash your hands with antisptic or with running water every time you make a transaction involving banknotes and I think this action is a suggested effort.

The only way if this could be infected and killed by the COVID-19 virus, when in contact with fiat money automatically all people in this world must use the crypto currency in the sale / purchase transaction, in my opinion, it is to prevent increased casualties.

Until now to get bitcoin or crypto I think we still need paper money and we still have other problems because not all countries legalize bitcoin and other crypto are used as legal currencies.

[Timelord2067]

Until now to get bitcoin or crypto I think we still need paper money and we still have other problems because not all countries legalize bitcoin and other crypto are used as legal currencies.

Especially if the power goes off even for a few hours.  

Yeah a cc stuck into a machine is safe for the teller.

Just remember to clean your hands after pressing keys on the cc machine

Contactless ATM transactions are happening here and now (tap and go is one name used) but no power, no bitcoin. (True paper wallets etc, but we just talked about NOT using paper/polymer money, so paper bitcoin wallets is out)

[Pmalek]

It might sound lame, but if you are coughing and spluttering all day long, the infection in your mouth will get re-swallowed and re-spread throughout your throughout your system.

It is actually suggested to drink a lot of hot fluids on a regular basis, especially tea. Why? Because the virus stays in your nose and mouth for several days before making its way down towards the lungs. Drinking on a regular basis will wash down the virus towards your stomach where the gastric acid will kill it. So drink a lot throughout the day, whether you are healthy or sick.   

[Timelord2o67]

It might sound lame, but if you are coughing and spluttering all day long, the infection in your mouth will get re-swallowed and re-spread throughout your throughout your system.

It is actually suggested to drink a lot of hot fluids on a regular basis, especially tea. Why? Because the virus stays in your nose and mouth for several days before making its way down towards the lungs. Drinking on a regular basis will wash down the virus towards your stomach where the gastric acid will kill it. So drink a lot throughout the day, whether you are healthy or sick.   

I would appreciate any links you have that confirm that.

[gentlemand]

Now that I'm in isolation the only gloves I have to hand are boxing gloves. That's going to make typing extremely hard. Can the forum staff make extra big letters for people in similar situations?

It is actually suggested to drink a lot of hot fluids on a regular basis, especially tea. Why? Because the virus stays in your nose and mouth for several days before making its way down towards the lungs. Drinking on a regular basis will wash down the virus towards your stomach where the gastric acid will kill it. So drink a lot throughout the day, whether you are healthy or sick.  

Can confirm. I was giving a Liberian hooker cunnilingus when she suddenly remembered she had Ebola. I had a quick cuppa, killed the virus, and then we carried on as before. I really don't understand why all those nincompoops who died from it didn't do that. Sheesh.

[actmyname]

It is actually suggested to drink a lot of hot fluids on a regular basis, especially tea. Why? Because the virus stays in your nose and mouth for several days before making its way down towards the lungs.

Should I start snorting hot tea so that I can access my naval cavity, then? Take a look at the anatomical structure of your head...

Done?

Alright, now add in the fact that the circulatory system connects to most of the surfaces there via capillary systems.
Okay, now consider that blood circulates and passes right by your lungs.

I would appreciate any links you have that confirm that.

Yeah, call me a sceptic but this is what I expect to find on my grandmother's Facebook wall.

[suchmoon]

It is actually suggested to drink a lot of hot fluids on a regular basis, especially tea. Why? Because the virus stays in your nose and mouth for several days before making its way down towards the lungs. Drinking on a regular basis will wash down the virus towards your stomach where the gastric acid will kill it. So drink a lot throughout the day, whether you are healthy or sick.  

Can confirm. I was giving a Liberian hooker cunnilingus when she suddenly remembered she had Ebola. I had a quick cuppa, killed the virus, and then we carried on as before. I really don't understand why all those nincompoops who died from it didn't do that. Sheesh.

Can we substitute 120+ proof rum for the tea? Kill the virus on the spot or at least feel good failing.

[so98nn]

I am not interested in your topic around assumptions about members on this forum, I see a lot of assumptions made, there is no basis to confirm  But to talk about Covid-19, this terrible disease made me feel insecure  Ignoring temporarily the place I'm living, it's quite peaceful to worry. But looking at what is happening in Italy, Iran and some countries in Europe, I wonder how much worse it will be in the future. They seemed helplessly the damn spread of it  A real crisis is taking place  Meanwhile, recently, the UK still held a music festival for thousands of people attending, they didn't seem to be worried about the spread.

I work in a Vaccine industry and we have already started the isolation of strains for Coronavirus. As it seems the study is coming up with complex behaviour of the virus and its self modification in reference with the external environment.

In just few weeks virus has made itself sustain in harsh conditions like heat and cold. It can survive anywhere from zero degree (dormant stage) to over 60 degree's and thus making it more vulnerable.

However, with the isolation we have confirmed the pre-clinical testing to held in next 6 months so as to start developing raw vaccine to be tested in animals.

@Timelord2067, your assumptions are way far from correct as you would never know at what rate Corona will start spreading!

It may just occur that it will start multiplying at far greater speeds than the current one due to its all time evolving phases.

I am not sure if i look into this topic as mathematically fun with some serious background in it but scientifically its not worthy. (Just my opinion).

[STT]

I did read an advisory earlier on high alcohol spirits as drinks to combat Corona and its actually a danger because it lowers immune response.   As a cleaning agent if you spilled your drink over the table and even better set fire to it, thats great but drinking like smoking I suspect is not the best choice for improving % odds.
    Oxygen supply or highly oxygenated drinks if thats such a thing, maybe or I was suggest Vit C drinks as its very easy to be low on this intake.

Statistically a widespread change to world would likely have some change to the forum but I think its going to be hard to guess how much.   The biggest deal is change in behaviour by everyone ill, survivor or uninfected and thats the biggest alteration.   So I thought OP was about to say more accounts created from a greater online population.    Also Corona can be passed and caught via paper money, surely this should be helping Crypto alot.   A side point is phones should be wiped clean regularly or its reducing benefits of washing hands.
 
On deaths, memento mori.  Unique active accounts 1% with another 0.1% to account for the forum membership in high risk groups who are a minority is my guess.        Overall dont be too down about this all imo, I'm quite certain the chances of dying in a car accident far out rate the dangers of this virus and people ignore this from familiarity hence ironically it becomes an ever greater danger.   Not sure thats a cheery note exactly but the biggest risks in life, the odds can be improved.

[Timelord2067]

...

Thanks for your observations - as I've said to everyone else if you can provide a URL to back up your assertion, then I am more than happy to amend any previous post that I've made in this thread.

...

Clinical trials of potential vaccines are being worked on around the clock - I did briefly hear another drug to combat a previous virus might actually work on attacking the COVID-19 strain - if I hear anything concerning that I'll pass it on here.

Micro breweries are being converted to produce hand-sanitiser to bolster demand.  An example of which is the former cricketer Shane Warne's micro brewed gin distillery.

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory/shane-warne-turns-gin-distillery-hand-sanitizer-69722955

Shane Warne turns gin distillery over to hand sanitizer
Legendary Australia leg-spinner Shane Warne has turned his hand from making gin to making hand-sanitizer as shortages frustrate attempts to control the coronavirus outbreak

[Pmalek]

I would appreciate any links you have that confirm that.

I heard that 'recommendation' on a local news program but seeing the reply by actmyname it made me look into it. Turns out it was one of those fake tips and tricks that have been making headlines lately. I am now surprised it was even mentioned on that show, which is well known over here for good reporting. Sorry, bad advice on my part combined with not thinking before posting!

But I do still suggest people should drink water and tea instead of fruit-like concentrate juice piss or soft drinks. I am not letting anyone take that part away.