CoronaVirus USA - Open by easter?

[Initscri]

Despite what you believe politically, President Trump made a statement "showing hope" to have the USA "open by easter".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/trump-easter-economy-coronavirus/index.html

Do you think this is possible? What do you think the impact of this will be if this is forced ahead (companies allowed to re-open up, etc). Do you think it'll make the health and/or economic problem better or worse?

[Gyfts]

It's reasonable but the economic ramifications are going to last for years. The U.S. unemployment office is expected to receive 2.25 million unemployment applications which is the largest number ever recorded. So having millions of people who don't have employment isn't magically going to be fixed the day the economy reopens. Small businesses are going to file for bankruptcy and most have already laid off employees so at a minimum you're looking at anywhere from 8-12 months for a small business to actually recover and hire back their full time staff. In addition to that, certain industries aren't going to recover for a long time -- movie theaters and sit down restaurants are gone for the foreseeable future.

[NeuroticFish]

Despite what you believe politically, President Trump made a statement "showing hope" to have the USA "open by easter".

~

Do you think this is possible?

No. It's a "political" timeline/declaration, to give hope, to not scare people, to avoid people despair and overreact.
It's somewhat similar with his statement where he was distrusting Bitcoin.

[exstasie]

Despite what you believe politically, President Trump made a statement "showing hope" to have the USA "open by easter".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/trump-easter-economy-coronavirus/index.html

Do you think this is possible?

He's speaking prematurely and is just trying to quell panic, but there are some signs this will be over quicker than we thought. Not because the corona virus stops spreading, but because it's so infectious that most people have already been exposed.

An Oxford study suggests half the UK population already has or had the corona virus: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html

While that may sound bad initially, what it really means is this:

If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.

So it may turn out the corona virus is insanely infectious but also has an extremely low mortality rate, and even a low rate of expressing symptoms at all. If this model is correct, we won't flatten the curve by stopping the spread through containment. The curve will flatten because the virus will run out people to infect.

If other studies confirm these findings in the coming weeks, it will be a real game changer.

[Gyfts]

An Oxford study suggests half the UK population already has or had the corona virus: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html

This is a common theory in analytics of the epidemiology of various diseases. The reported data tends under report the real number of cases due to a lack of testing. You combine this with the fact that the majority of coronavirus victims will be asymptomatic for a certain period while the disease is transmissible, you're looking at large swaths of the population to contract coronavirus. Still though, suggesting that half have the disease already is a bit of a stretch this early. We're not going to know the true numbers of coronavirus until months after this is over once widespread testing is enacted in countries expanding South Korea.


China has widespread testing but I wouldn't trust a single number they put out.

[gentlemand]

An Oxford study suggests half the UK population already has or had the corona virus: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html

While that may sound bad initially, what it really means is this:

If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.

So it may turn out the corona virus is insanely infectious but also has an extremely low mortality rate, and even a low rate of expressing symptoms at all. If this model is correct, we won't flatten the curve by stopping the spread through containment. The curve will flatten because the virus will run out people to infect.

If other studies confirm these findings in the coming weeks, it will be a real game changer.

I would love that to be true but it seems too good to be true, just as the millions of dead figures are too far the other way. I have zero doubt that the actual mortality rate is vastly lower than will ever be known or reported.

Maybe Donny is making the right call in this case. He does have a weird feral instinct. But the sad thing is we'll never who had the right or wrong strategies until it's too late.

[hatshepsut93]

Trump just wants to appeal to his Christian voters who can't wait to go to church (though many actually ignore quarantine for it). The US is still far from reaching the peak, even Italy which started to have coronavirus earlier still hasn't peaked. If Trump will proceed with this plan, he'll likely make things much worse.

[20kevin20]

Truly depends on how events unfold. If US will continue with the decreasing death/total cases ratio, then plugging back in the economy could be okay. They're slightly above 1% death rate as of now, compared to Italy which has it close to 10%.

If we don't test at all, this could turn into a legit bloodbath. But if we only test patients who have symptoms or those who go to the hospital, we'll get an unreal death rate. Therefore, the best thing we can do is test as many people as possible because if we test an entire country and 1M people are infected out of which only a few thousands have died, the numbers will change significantly..

[so98nn]

Despite what you believe politically, President Trump made a statement "showing hope" to have the USA "open by easter".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/trump-easter-economy-coronavirus/index.html

Do you think this is possible? What do you think the impact of this will be if this is forced ahead (companies allowed to re-open up, etc). Do you think it'll make the health and/or economic problem better or worse?

Impossible.

Have you even checked out the rate at which coronavirus is spreading all over the USA?

Its racing itself at faster pace day by day. There is no cure on the corona yet, and even if there comes any medication then also it will take 6 months to 10 months to immunise every dam human being around the globe. Even if single person is left out then he will spread the stuff one more time.

Also, don't forget it is viral disease which means those who have got already infected cant be cured!! They will be contagon for the others and threat remains (may be at lower rate but it stays!)

If Trump makes mistake of opening USA again so quickly then half of the population is gonna die. (Apologies, but scientifically you cant disagree).

[gentlemand]

Impossible.

It's totally possible it just might be very, very inadvisable. Anyway the man himself has said he's taking advice and will consider it on a day by day basis. If they tell him it's armageddon I presume for once at least he may listen and ease off.

He's basically a huckster who tells people what he thinks they want to hear. This is more of the same.

[exstasie]

This is a common theory in analytics of the epidemiology of various diseases. The reported data tends under report the real number of cases due to a lack of testing. You combine this with the fact that the majority of coronavirus victims will be asymptomatic for a certain period while the disease is transmissible, you're looking at large swaths of the population to contract coronavirus. Still though, suggesting that half have the disease already is a bit of a stretch this early. We're not going to know the true numbers of coronavirus until months after this is over once widespread testing is enacted in countries expanding South Korea.

Yeah, the Oxford researchers said we need actual large scale testing to confirm the model:

To see if their math checks out, the Oxford team is now working with researchers at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to begin antibody testing as soon as this week. “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” Gupta told the Financial Times.

Other preliminary studies do support the idea though:

Research published last week by Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University in New York and his colleagues analysed the course of the epidemic in 375 Chinese cities between 10 January, when the epidemic took off, and 23 January, when containment measures such as travel restrictions were imposed.

The study concluded that 86 per cent of cases were “undocumented” – that is, asymptomatic or had only very mild symptoms (Science, doi.org/ggn6c2).

A project in Italy has also found many symptomless cases. When everybody was tested in a town called Vò, one of the hardest-hit in the country, 60 per cent of people who tested positive were found to have no symptoms.

That is lower than the number found in China but is in the same ballpark, says Shaman. “It might be one in 10 in some societies versus one in five in others, but generally you’re looking at about an order of magnitude more cases than have been confirmed,” he says.

At this point the corona virus has shown itself to be so infectious, that we better hope this model (or something close to it) is correct. Otherwise we can expect hospitals to be overwhelmed.

[so98nn]

Impossible.

It's totally possible it just might be very, very inadvisable. Anyway the man himself has said he's taking advice and will consider it on a day by day basis. If they tell him it's armageddon I presume for once at least he may listen and ease off.

He's basically a huckster who tells people what he thinks they want to hear. This is more of the same.

AH!

What people want to hear?

Situation may come we drive ourselves into apocalyptic day. It can happen and we cant just take it casually. Just learn from the Italy!

Im just saying its impossible to open up business doors by April 12th !!

[LazerSMS]

Incredible how many businesses can't survive without 1 month of revenues, open by end of April or not the damage is already done but that's not just the USA, the entire World is gonna shake

[Initscri]

Impossible.

It's totally possible it just might be very, very inadvisable. Anyway the man himself has said he's taking advice and will consider it on a day by day basis. If they tell him it's armageddon I presume for once at least he may listen and ease off.

He's basically a huckster who tells people what he thinks they want to hear. This is more of the same.

To be fair, isn't every politician some form of a huckster - wanting to give out false hope even if it's a lie.

He's just a more heavily monitored/criticized one.

I'm sure every politician would love to go out and give hope right now. And part of me thinks it isn't a bad thing even though it's probably a bold face lie. The 24/7 Armageddon coverage on CNN does get old after a while.

[rambogoham1]

Despite what you believe politically, President Trump made a statement "showing hope" to have the USA "open by easter".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/trump-easter-economy-coronavirus/index.html

Do you think this is possible? What do you think the impact of this will be if this is forced ahead (companies allowed to re-open up, etc). Do you think it'll make the health and/or economic problem better or worse?

I think only if were able to detect people who have had the virus and are now immune can we be certain of opening back up the country to where it was before. I think the governor of New York mentioned this in a statement about how quite a few people will get the virus but never go to the hospital or have anything bigger than a fever. These people can return to work.

[gentlemand]

To be fair, isn't every politician some form of a huckster - wanting to give out false hope even if it's a lie.

He's just a more heavily monitored/criticized one.

I'm sure every politician would love to go out and give hope right now. And part of me thinks it isn't a bad thing even though it's probably a bold face lie. The 24/7 Armageddon coverage on CNN does get old after a while.

For better or worse he does have a point. I'm sure many other leaders are thinking the same thing but they're not deranged enough to voice it. At some point if it does look like it's going to be an infinite bleed a decision will have to be made to live with it rather than put the entire world in deep freeze. I think it'll be the US that breaks ranks first if that is the situation.

[Gozie51]

He's basically a huckster who tells people what he thinks they want to hear. This is more of the same.

I think also that this is a media hype and stunt. You can be talking of opening up when it is not confirmed that a vaccine is taking care of affected people in the country (except there is something we are yet to know).

[el kaka22]

Not a chance, Easter is 12th of April for anyone who doesn't know, that is about 2-3 weeks away and there is no way the world will get rid of corona that easily.

I am not saying it will stay for years or something, I am not trying to scare anyone, it will definitely be either over or basically close to being over by this summer, I believe that this summer holiday vacations will be a lot better. However at the same time, this is simply 2-3 weeks we are talking about, 12th April is too close, even in the best chances we will not see something like that easily.

There has been some talks about couple of drugs that cures people when given together so I guess we are getting closer and overtime we are going to see a lot less people dying and getting infected, but even with that in mind 12th of April is just too close.

[exstasie]

Not a chance, Easter is 12th of April for anyone who doesn't know, that is about 2-3 weeks away and there is no way the world will get rid of corona that easily.

To his credit, he's not suggesting we can "get rid of" the corona virus by then, just that the infection curve will have flattened, so easing the total social and economic shutdown might be justified.

Mostly he's just trying to stop the panic and turn the market around. His hotels are at risk of bankruptcy if this goes on for months and months. It's true though that we as society can't really afford to live in this state of near shutdown until summer vacation. Most businesses will be completely bankrupt by then and people will be broke and starving from lack of income. At that point, political revolutions and government overthrows become realistic.

I think many people are underestimating the economic effects of shutting down even for just a few weeks, let alone months. Most businesses won't last longer than a month, and most people already live paycheck to paycheck with almost no savings.

[Meowth05]

I hope that he will back up what he is saying because people are worrying, these kind of times are in need of responsible and reliable leaders. If US opens by easter as he says then economy will stabilize as soon as possible.