What if BTC never reaches all time high?

[Rengga Jati]

We can see that their Second All time high to All time high ratio are almost the same. Is that the same pattern bitcoin will follow?

I don't think that they are the same, you just make it the same with your calculation above. Stock and crypto shouldn't have the same pattern, they are a bit different. Yep, what's happening on Nikkei 225 cannot be compared with Bitcoin because they are different in history, function, and characteristics. At least, you know that Bitcoin is like the main coin in crypto and has high volatility. It is much different than Nikkei 225. So, I believe that Bitcoin never follows the pattern of Nikkei 225.

[Utoy101]

With massive adoption and usage of cryptocurrency, i think bitcoin can attain unimaginable price value even higher than it's previous ATH. After the bull run of the 2017, a lot of people remove money from the cryptocurrency market because of lot of scam ICO that leverage the nice trend gather by the cryptocurrency market. The current market capitalization is less than half of what we had in 2017 which validates the fact that rate of  adoption is the key to cryptocurrency price increment. I can't wait to see the marketcap rose above trillion dollars

[Shasha80]

Don't compare bitcoin with the stock market, because investing in both is much different. If now the Nikkei 225 stock index data is the same
with bitcoin is just coincidence. Because I'm sure bitcoin will reach all time high, but it is not in the near future. I remain optimistic about the
future of bitcoin, in fact I am sure the price of bitcoin will exceed all time high in a few more years.

[DarkDays]

If Bitcoin is to achieve mass adoption, then it will need to reach at least the market capitalization of circulating US dollars. That's around 2 trillion USD in bills, or approximately 17.5x higher than the current valuation of Bitcoin. At that value, each Bitcoin would be worth approximately $100,000.

If Bitcoin never achieves wide-scale adoption, then it will never reach anywhere near this value. The fact is, further growth from this point pretty much relies on Bitcoin achieving some form of adoption, and that's simply not going to happen in its current slow iteration.

[Kelvinid]

Don't compare bitcoin with the stock market, because investing in both is much different. If now the Nikkei 225 stock index data is the same
with bitcoin is just coincidence. Because I'm sure bitcoin will reach all time high, but it is not in the near future. I remain optimistic about the
future of bitcoin, in fact I am sure the price of bitcoin will exceed all time high in a few more years.

You are right, crypto investment is different from the real investment but then, the risk found in crypto is really high. I know that almost all of us here are meant to be optimistic and think for another ATH but not really that is easy. It relies on the market resistance and something it misses these days when we are at war against COVID-19. This year is really a big challenge for all of us but despite this, we are still able to cope it up and still stood strong.

[FlightyPouch]

Now it looks likely it will never reach its all time high anymore.

I enjoyed reading this statement cause you said "It looks like". Actually, bitcoin as I believe will go beyond it's all time high even if not soon but then, is bitcoin all about the money? Or an idea created for making payments?

Well, for you it might be a great way to make payments, to pay loans and something like that for most people it's about the profit they are getting from trading and long term holding. I don't really look at the future movement as it will just stir my mind so instead, I will just meddle on what's in front of me. I can't mold the future but what I can do right now is be ready for what may happen. 

[Janation]

Don't compare bitcoin with the stock market, because investing in both is much different. If now the Nikkei 225 stock index data is the same
with bitcoin is just coincidence. Because I'm sure bitcoin will reach all time high, but it is not in the near future. I remain optimistic about the
future of bitcoin, in fact I am sure the price of bitcoin will exceed all time high in a few more years.

What we can do now is to wait for what will happen.

It is said that the pandemic can't affect the price of Bitcoin directly but that is not the same with those people that are having a hard time now with the quarantine. This pandemic will not be that easily dispersed and we might wait for a longer time for our lives to be normal. Even with the halving, we can't really say that it would be the same as last year's result.

[jossiel]

We will never know but like pooya mentioned it's not about the price but the development that it has for being a payment method. That would be a great day to see most of the countries start using it.

We'll just think of the price secondarily.

Never say never, but no one said it had to be "soon", it could take years, or the USD may collapse tomorrow for the inducing inflation of printing trillions of extra dollars that did not not exist before.

While i understand the intent, what pooya said is silly. Bitcoin will always fluctuate, but less and less over time. It will also keep climbing, also slower over time. This is why i am sure it will eventually breach that 19.8k price, tho it might not be soon.

And no, people will not wait until bitcoin magically stabilizes (it never will) to use it. People are already using it, you just have to abandon all your Chicago school of economy misconceptions; it is easy to use a coin that doesn't lose value over time: just use what you need and keep the rest safe. No debts, no banks. Logically, prices and wages will go down too naturally as the coin gains value. Prices in a free market are never fixed, periodically contracts are renewed, etc.

I'm extracting what he said about the development and it's a good point to take that base from what OP was asking. Yes, given that the USD may inflate soon since the stimulus was already there.

And that's the exciting part where we will be heading after this crisis.

[NavI_027]

If it's not then it's not, as simple as that. However, I doubt about that possibility because in my point of view btc grow bigger and bigger which later can definitely result to price increase later. After this pandemic, there's a big chance that many government around the globe will realized how significant a cashless transaction is and this is where Bitcoin may enter . They may finally accept crypto payments within their countries, more and more people might adopt such kind of technology, and big businessmen might also invest unto it. Who knows ?

[Wexnident]

Why are we even judging it by its price? Sure, talking about if it could reach another new high is fun and all, after all, if you hodl and that happened, easy profit. But that doesn't mean that THAT itself defines what BTC is. If it never reached it, then so be it. It's not like that BTC code has a self-destruction sequence that states that when it doesn't reach the ATH in x amount of time, the system would be destroyed or something like that. BTC isn't an investment in the end, it's just a means just like fiat. A medium of transaction which is basically done over the internet, one that no central power has control of.

[Zionatin]

So what? It doesn't matter if it doesn't reach ATH, as long as BTC still exists and is used or traded or invested, IMHO. Prices will always be there, volatility will be there, as long as demand and supply flood the market. We can know that ATH is not really the final destination, because new peaks and new valleys are always dynamic, taking advantage of existing patterns.

I am sure, one day the previous ATH can be exceeded, when? I don't know, no one can guess for sure, just limited to speculation. Sooner or later even relatuif, it's only a matter of time. The problem is we miss a lot of opportunities to get profits.

I think many people are upset they lost out when crypto was still very new just after 2010 but in foresight, it's easy to say that. Even if you flip a coin and get heads not tails you could just say to yourself you should have picked tails. I think most people that talk about the price high are wanting a second chance at glory but they should not forget at other currencies too. When crypto really picks up and tokens have real-world value and tokens act more like stocks in a company then those tokens will soar in price along with the new project that backs them.

[Abiky]

Bitcoin should never be put in the same category as stocks. Stocks are an IOU that you own a share in a company. Bitcoin is like having something physically valuable in digital form, which can be easily divided then transacted or traded.

In my mind Bitcoin's price is either going to moon like crazy and eventually become the global reserve currency & digital gold or die a horrible death. You could say the risk of the investment is binary (1 or 0).

In a Bitcoiner's eyes, the chance of it succeeding far outweighs it's death. Bitcoin has been designed to be extremely robust on the internet (Distributed, Decentralized, Neutral, Censorship resistant etc). It has an 11 year track record of being extremely bullish. It's overall growth of development, infrastructure, adoption etc is not slowing down.

I personally think after you've done a certain amount of research, your decision will become very easy to make.
You will eventually come to the conclusion of BUY, HODL & continue to stack sats (DCA - Dollar cost averaging).

Short term price movements are a distraction to shake you out.

Exactly. Bitcoin was never meant to be a dependent currency from the world's monetary system. It was created to be largely independent from the centralized infrastructure that's prone to corruption and fraud. People have used Fiat as a unit of account to measure Bitcoin's value. Prices go up and down in a blink of an eye as they're the ones who determine its value instead of a central authority. Since there's no company, central operator, or middleman behind it, the pioneer cryptocurrency can never be compared to the likes of traditional stocks in the mainstream world. Comparing Bitcoin vs stocks is like comparing apples vs oranges. Stocks cannot be used as money for daily payments unlike Bitcoin. The pioneer cryptocurrency allows you to use it as both a store of value and a currency for daily payments. It's like combining the best of both worlds.

Saying that Bitcoin will never reach a new ATH, is a pessimistic attitude. Given that Bitcoin was designed to be a deflationary cryptocurrency, it's supposed to rise in price over time. The rules of supply and demand tells us it should be this way. While Bitcoin is still speculative, its use cases in the mainstream world are expanding far beyond reach. With the Lightning Network, it's now possible to use Bitcoin for daily payments just as you would with cash. Instant transactions and low fees will make Bitcoin highly attractive to the masses. As a result, demand for Bitcoin will increase alongside its price across the crypto market. If you believe in Bitcoin's core Blockchain technology to change our world for the better, you'd "hodl" it no matter what. Otherwise, Bitcoin is not for you.

What's important is not how much Bitcoin is worth in terms of USD (Fiat), but how useful it is for censorship-resistant payments worldwide. So far, Bitcoin has done an excellent job in preserving decentralization/censorship-resistance where no one has been able to disrupt the chain in its entirety. This gives us freedom to transact with anyone in the world without the fear of getting our funds confiscated or our account frozen by a third-party. In a world where the banking system is about to collapse in its entirety, Bitcoin serves as a "safe-haven" asset which operates 24/7 regardless of negative events in the mainstream world. It's unstoppable unlike any other currency worldwide. With good patience, you'll be able to see great results in the future. Let's hope that with the upcoming halving, prices start to rise across the crypto market at a fast pace. Just my thoughts

[simonkn0wsbest]

If it reached ATH, then that's great, if it doesn't that's okay too, as long as BTC stay as BTC and all that matter is we reach that consistent up and not DIP that low that will cause a panic for everyone.

[Vishnu.Reang]

This scenario is quite possible. Bitcoin was originally designated as a currency. So rather than the exchange rate, the adoption and acceptability levels are more important for Bitcoin. If Satoshi is still alive, then he will be concentrating more on these aspects rather than the exchange rate of Bitcoin. But naturally as the acceptability increase, the prices should also go up. If it is not happening, then there is some manipulation going on.

[Casdinyard]

If it's not then it's not, as simple as that. However, I doubt about that possibility because in my point of view btc grow bigger and bigger which later can definitely result to price increase later.

What's wrong with speculation then? the core of the price is the speculation from people behind your bitcoin. With the price of it right now, it seems like we are getting back on our feet to continue the phase of halving, yet I'm very positive that we are heading a good market, a bullish one.

After this pandemic, there's a big chance that many government around the globe will realized how significant a cashless transaction is and this is where Bitcoin may enter . They may finally accept crypto payments within their countries, more and more people might adopt such kind of technology, and big businessmen might also invest unto it. Who knows ?

I hope so, there is a huge chance of cryptocurrency to be fully recognized and adopted by the government after this. Crypto payments are already in the reality, however it is not that fully utilized by many so I'm thinking that we are going to see more often of cryptocurrency payments in malls and online shops.

[adzino]

Not sure how come you are comparing those Japanese stocks with bitcoin. Look, the supply of bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins. No new coins will be added to the market after 21 million coins has been reached, but their will be increase in the demand of the coin each and everyday. The population is not limited, remember that. As days pass by, more crypto currency users will be created, thus creating more demand for the coins which in turn will cause the price to rise.
Yeah, we might not  see it in the short run, but we may see the price rising  and reaching the all time high in the long run.

[Nunoluck]

Btc and stock market is different. The price in stock market is influenced by many factors include companies performance where there is dividend rate that offered by that companies while there is no dividend for btc holder. Btc price is compared against fiat price where fiat price or value is always decrease because of inflation. So bitcoin price will reach $20000 again due the decreasing value of fiat. There is a case where japan's nikkei 225 was in a parabolic bubble in the 1980s when the Dow jones industrial average had a steady rise, even nikkei has not recovered while the Dow jones fully survived its biggest one-day decline on October 19, 1987. Its proof that nikkei 225 performance is not so good.

[kawetsriyanto]

I have no problem if BTC can't reach its ATH again. My target in Bitcoin investment isn't the ATH but certain rates to reach to be considered for selling. For me, if the price can grow up until $20k, it is more than enough. About the ATH of Nikkei 225, it is incomparable with ATH in BTC. We have unstable and unpredictable price moves, so it isn't impossible to see it suddenly improve someday. 

[abel1337]

I have no problem if BTC can't reach its ATH again. My target in Bitcoin investment isn't the ATH but certain rates to reach to be considered for selling. For me, if the price can grow up until $20k, it is more than enough. About the ATH of Nikkei 225, it is incomparable with ATH in BTC. We have unstable and unpredictable price moves, so it isn't impossible to see it suddenly improve someday. 

As a bitcoin hodler, Reaching ATH again is a chance that we can never let go. I hodl bitcoin for-profit and buying and hodling it in some way that I am earning some profit. As you said it is not impossible that's why many of us is wishing that moment will happen again and bitcoin will surpass its ATH again.

[matchi2011]

I have no problem if BTC can't reach its ATH again. My target in Bitcoin investment isn't the ATH but certain rates to reach to be considered for selling. For me, if the price can grow up until $20k, it is more than enough. About the ATH of Nikkei 225, it is incomparable with ATH in BTC. We have unstable and unpredictable price moves, so it isn't impossible to see it suddenly improve someday. 

As a bitcoin hodler, Reaching ATH again is a chance that we can never let go. I hodl bitcoin for-profit and buying and hodling it in some way that I am earning some profit. As you said it is not impossible that's why many of us is wishing that moment will happen again and bitcoin will surpass its ATH again.

It will happen again for sure, since we already witness that before and history will repeat itself  the all time high will be reach. You have to position yourself and make sure that you are ready and willing to take the risk knowing that there's no certain and active time frame for this new height
The last time high went to the peak of $20k. Lots of people are still hoping that it will be back or much better to surpassed that amount and reached more than the last time high.