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April 03, 2020, 04:01:40 PM Last edit: April 03, 2020, 04:23:08 PM by OROBTC |
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... Each day it becomes clearer what is happening to the Western economies. Whether the bulk of the blame is on the Western World's high debts (probably) or China re foisting COVID-19 upon the world (likely) is not that important for the purposes of what we need to start doing NOW. It looks like we are sliding into an Economic Depression. And we are about to enter a Whole New World with its own "New Normal". I believe it is clear that some fundamental restructuring of our (American and European) economies is an urgent matter. But, this will be very expensive and take a long time to implement, and there will be much resistance to these policies. It has now become clear that the Globalist Model has major defects. There is some good in Globalism, but we now see that there is bad as well. We need to be thinking about how to make our country/countries stronger and less reliant on dictatorships like Communist China (and to a degree authoritarian Russia). The below seem to be fundamental things we need to begin ASAP: Bring Back Certain Manufacturing- We need to be manufacturing much more of our pharmaceuticals (including the vital precursor chemicals) here. In US plants (Europe as well). It is awful that we have to put up with Chicom threats to cutting us off our pharma. I understand that many pharma companies strongly resist this (higher costs, they are not ready, etc.). Well TS. We should have started this process a long time ago.
- Similarly we need to start mining Rare Earth metals here in North America (Europe has some deposits as well). These are vital to new technologies and for alternative energy (inc. electric cars). We have to break down the barriers to opening rare earth mines, and to build the processing plants to turn the minerals into useful products (magnets, etc.).
- And we need to produce more electronic components here in North America and Europe. Trump has already suggested to Tim Cook that Apple building more plants here in the USA would be a good idea. We are very dependent on China in components as well.
Yes, I understand that doing the above would drive costs of pharma and other products way up. OK, but look at what COVID-19 has done to us re driving up costs! The above suggestions would also create a lot of good jobs, many of them just the sort of STEM jobs that we apparently really need in addition to safeguarding our security. Rebuilding vital parts of our industrial base seems very important. And time's a-wasting. Let's get this started! Build InfrastructureFor years (decades) we have been hearing all about the decline of our basic infrastructure. Yes, it's a real problem (set of large problems), I have traveled enough to see how some of our infrastructure is in bad shape compared to what I see from time-to-time overseas. Infrastructure is expensive! Yes, I understand, also infrastructure projects are often huge magnets for fraud, cost overruns, poor workmanship, etc. Nonetheless, properly functioning countries need to have properly functioning infrastructure. I list out some (I make no prettense that the below is all-inclusive), but these DO seem to be necessary to get done. And get started ASAP. - Strengthen the electrical grid. Our rickety grid is unacceptable. It is also quite vulnerable to a variety of attacks by hostile enemies...
- Rebuild our railroads, ports and highways. Probably our airports as well, although air travel may be declining for the next couple of years...
- Water & sewage systems.
- Cybersecurity, for obvious reasons.
- Energy: fossil fuels (how about using more natural gas?), alternative energies, conservation, etc.
- A properly functioning public health system, perhaps redoing the CDC and working with Europe to reform the WHO.
There are other items I'm sure I have missed. * * * I assure you that I am not naive as to the very high costs of doing the above. And the risks of massive waste. But, these are important things that we must do, both for national security and for strengthening our economies -- making us more resistant and resilient to further DISASTERS that likely await us in the coming years. They would create good jobs, and leave us better prepared for the future. "The key is not predicting the future, but to be prepared for it" -- Pericles (500 BC)
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mindrust
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April 03, 2020, 04:04:48 PM |
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Too late. The world is addicted to cheap man-power and low interest rates.
It will be very hard to reverse the momentum. It could be done but it will be painful too. By painful, I don't mean what we saw last month. That was nothing.
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OROBTC (OP)
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April 03, 2020, 04:16:26 PM |
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Too late. The world is addicted to cheap man-power and low interest rates.
It will be very hard to reverse the momentum. It could be done but it will be painful too. By painful, I don't mean what we saw last month. That was nothing.
Alas, I agree. It would be extremely expensive to undertake all of what I sketch out above. But, probably more expensive to NOT undertake them in the long-run.But, upon considering the last month or two, it is clear that we are in a new era that is NOT compatible with extreme Globalism (which cheap manpower is a major component of) if we value stability and security. And stability and security, IMO, are more important than the additional costs that will arrive... Energy is a huge problem. Low pharma manufacturing capacity is a huge problem. Dependence on China for rare earth metals is a huge problem. Many, many problems, that WILL cost huge amounts of money to resolve them. EDIT: You raise the topic of low interest rates. There is a case to be made for raising interest rates, that would encourage SAVINGS (important) and discourage frivolous spending and debt.
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gentlemand
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April 03, 2020, 04:23:18 PM Merited by LoyceV (4), OROBTC (1) |
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I think there will be many calls for this. They will eventually fade away. What will happen is some concerted stockpiling. And then that'll get sold off or forgotten about. That's how humans roll. We carry on improvising until it's too late. I can't see that changing.
I guess the real test is dealing with the economic wreckage. No one knows how bad that will be or what the effects will be. Perhaps it will inspire some sort of sea change. I ain't holding my breath.
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LeGaulois
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April 03, 2020, 05:03:00 PM |
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We're just the victim of a capitalist system and globalization and to be honest, I don't think it will change anytime soon because it's all so ingrained in the world.
Certainly, we will see some industries going back to producing locally to be less dependant but that will remain a minority and it won't make much difference.
It's at the level of mentalities that we have to change and our perception of money. Capitalism was good for a growth economy but seeing how they turned it...
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April 03, 2020, 05:35:42 PM |
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I think there will be many calls for this. They will eventually fade away. What will happen is some concerted stockpiling. And then that'll get sold off or forgotten about. That's how humans roll. We carry on improvising until it's too late. I can't see that changing.
I guess the real test is dealing with the economic wreckage. No one knows how bad that will be or what the effects will be. Perhaps it will inspire some sort of sea change. I ain't holding my breath.
Everything depends how long the crisis will last but I don't expect that something will change in dramatic way. People have very short memory and as soon as everything gets back to normal, people will forget everything they cry out now. Economy will suffer the worst and that will leave deep trace but again some will use this situation for their own benefit, both countries and individuals.
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April 03, 2020, 05:53:20 PM |
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Everything depends how long the crisis will last but I don't expect that something will change in dramatic way. People have very short memory and as soon as everything gets back to normal, people will forget everything they cry out now. Economy will suffer the worst and that will leave deep trace but again some will use this situation for their own benefit, both countries and individuals.
Indeed the majority of people, forget fast but with this situation, we can't define normal like it was before. So after this global lockdown, normal will have a new meaning. As for the economy, I can't say much for now. Both US and EU announce "supporting measures" with trillions...
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mindrust
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April 03, 2020, 05:54:15 PM Merited by gentlemand (1) |
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I think there will be many calls for this. They will eventually fade away. What will happen is some concerted stockpiling. And then that'll get sold off or forgotten about. That's how humans roll. We carry on improvising until it's too late. I can't see that changing.
I guess the real test is dealing with the economic wreckage. No one knows how bad that will be or what the effects will be. Perhaps it will inspire some sort of sea change. I ain't holding my breath.
Everything depends how long the crisis will last but I don't expect that something will change in dramatic way. People have very short memory and as soon as everything gets back to normal, people will forget everything they cry out now. Economy will suffer the worst and that will leave deep trace but again some will use this situation for their own benefit, both countries and individuals. What was normal though? It wasn't going well before covid19 if that's what you mean. "Normal" was already going for a disaster. Covid19 only made us reach our target faster: Total shit. Before covid nothing was "normal". There were still negative interest rates, excessive money printing, asset bubbles etc etc. If it wasn't covid, we were going to experience this sooner or later. I think we should have gone through this in 2001 tbh. Not even 2008. We bought a 20-year extension from the FED and time is up.
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dothebeats
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April 03, 2020, 06:14:37 PM |
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The problem with the Westerners in general is that most of them do not want to get their hands dirty on laboring, that's why you have tons of 9-5, rank-and-file jobs in the West compared to anywhere else in the world. Also, capitalists never really think of things like large-scale economic implications of their ventures by outsourcing most of the jobs and investing on infrastructure wherever is cheaper. The result? China gained power plants and massive production facilities with an arsenal of workers willing to get underpaid as long as they have the $$$ to take home at the end of the day. The greed of capitalists on profits allowed China to gain the manufacturing edge, and Europe/NA plants are lagging behind throughput and output since they invested more on the Eastern front.
As for the pharmaceutical industry, believe it or not the Westerners have the competitive edge and tech against China. Most big pharma in the US alone have sophisticated laboratories enough to produce vaccines and drugs at a large-scale compared to the capabilities of Japan, SoKor, and China combined. Then again, it is entirely dependent on which superbug or virus arises, and SARS-CoV-2 is made in China that's why the Chinese made studies first than any other countries in the world.
For NA and EU to bounce back in the scene, massive loss on profits and economy would have to happen. Pulling out integral assets on the eastern front would certainly hurt the bank and may result to yet another recession along the way. Unfortunately, the manufacturing scene would be Sino-centric for a while before level-headed capitalists actually think that their own plants are lagging behind their overseas investments, and that it is only a matter of time before those same investments ruin what they started.
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snipie
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April 03, 2020, 06:17:13 PM |
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The problem of what you are talking about is cost. I am not only talking about the cost of building new factories, workers, electricity, raw materials, suppliers... and the corruption in each step. I am talking about the price of the final product mainly which is double or triple of the Chinese one. A normal citizen is looking for gloves for example, he will not buy a pair of French gloves for $3 but instead he will buy 3 Chinese one for the same price. What's the difference? That's the real problem here. The same view will change when talking about cars for example, people will not buy a Chinese car with $10k but will buy a German or US one with +$20k. Medical field is neglected by govs, big companies are profiting from it like hell, look to the price of insulin in USA, it is ridiculous, it is 50x higher than third world countries! Better to not mention the cost of active principle of medication which most countries import it from China and India. What i am trying to say is not just having infrastructure covering all fields but also managing affordable and competitive prices. And until now, China is leading by far most of the countries.
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gentlemand
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April 03, 2020, 07:48:05 PM |
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The problem of what you are talking about is cost.
But some will be thinking along the lines of - can we afford not to? We are indeed awash with affordable tat but look at the social effects the current system has created - job insecurity, populist knobhounds, intergenerational resentment, rising living costs and stagnating wages. Of course rejecting China may not solve any of that but some will feel it's worth experimenting with. I guess the real disruptor is AI and automation and that's the greatest unknown for all of us in the future. Imagine the effects of genuine hostility between the West and elsewhere beyond the sniping we have today. It could be crippled in a couple of hours. At the same time it's possibly the most powerful form of keeping the peace between major powers we've ever known. No one can afford world war to happen any more. That may mean more proxy wars of course.
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d5000
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April 03, 2020, 09:56:08 PM |
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I second some of the proposals. A more "region-focused" economy will be more resilient than our current extreme-globalized one.
As @dothebeats and @snipie have already written the problem is that the current situation evolved due to labor costs which were too high in the "Western" countries for most "mass manufacturing" industries. However, this can change with automatization technology. A year ago approximately I read about a return of textile/clothing industry to Europe due to the development of highly automatized machines which reduced the need for cheap workers.
Can Bitcoin help with that? At a first glance, Bitcoin is a global currency and would also favour a "global labor market". But if it becomes a mainstream currency it could have an effect which may help: it may slowly level out differences in labor costs. At least office jobs are in theory doable from every location on the world with Internet, and this would mean that if all labor was priced in a global currency like BTC, it could lead to increasing worldwide competition between workers, which in the long rund would thus lead to a reduction of national/regional differences in hourly wages.
This would mean it could get increasingly difficult for companies to save costs "escaping" countries or regions with high labor cost, and it would give them again incentives to manufacture locally again (with improved technology).
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April 03, 2020, 11:11:07 PM |
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Very unlikely to happen. Right now, the only concern that every single country has is to get rid of Covid-19 once and for all. And I don't see that happening, there are over a million cases as we speak, and the numbers don't seem to be going down. China, who thought that they stabilized the rise of Covid-19 cases, had 3000 new cases yesterday. And this won't end until there is a goddamn cure. What you're suggesting is very unwise to do in midst of a pandemic. Sure, instead of relying on China, we get to start relying on ourselves, but at what cost? Any country tries to bring this proposal to the public, its gonna cause a mayhem. Maybe things could change after the pandemic is over, but until then bringing new people in to launch factories, dig up raw material is only going to make the Covid-19 pandemic worse.
As for the cost, trillions of dollars are being spent on this pandemic, its going to be a bloodbath coming out of this, every single country will have to basically do a fresh start, there is going to alot of layoffs, companies are going to vanish overnight, things are going to be more horrible, we just can't see it yet.
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April 04, 2020, 02:21:30 AM Merited by gentlemand (1) |
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We are indeed awash with affordable tat but look at the social effects the current system has created - job insecurity, populist knobhounds, intergenerational resentment, rising living costs and stagnating wages.
I didn't want to develop this but job insecurity for example is the fault/ due to the wild strict version of capitalism adopted by the USA. +6 millions jobless? That's crazy, i doubt that Europe for example reached that number. I am neither supporting socialism or communism but a soft version of capitalism may be the best choice. Personally I believe that each country has to secure its basics infrastructure which is essentially health and food, at whatever cost. The difference between the price of surgical mask made in USA vs China for example should be covered by the govs or there is another option, whenever locally made drug or medical equipment is available then insurance will cover it while it will not cover imported ones. Back to reality, govs covering something is communism-like and no one likes it, insurance covering expensive things is a pure delusion ![Undecided](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/undecided.gif) Everyone is claiming to support his country products while buying cheaper ones from foreign countries. Globalisation. Last thing I read on social media is an American buying a phone case from China. Coronavirus they said? Nothing will change...
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April 04, 2020, 02:26:26 AM |
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They should increase their focus more on building a vaccine or something to make the pandemic go away a little faster, second is that they should build a system that helps in preventingthe further spread and contractiong of the virus, and lastly, I think that the government should strategize on how will they create a fund stimulation that will benefit especially the poor.
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michellee
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April 04, 2020, 07:22:13 AM |
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They should increase their focus more on building a vaccine or something to make the pandemic go away a little faster, second is that they should build a system that helps in preventingthe further spread and contractiong of the virus, and lastly, I think that the government should strategize on how will they create a fund stimulation that will benefit especially the poor.
The vaccine is on the way to finish, and many countries are trying to find the vaccine, but the process will not happen fast. There are many things to be tested before the vaccine can be given to the patient, and I think that will need some months before they can get it. Healing the people who infected and searching the other infected people and isolate is an important thing right now before the virus spreads to more people. So after the government knows who is the infected people, and they can quarantine that person to get cured, the government will think about the other way.
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exstasie
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April 04, 2020, 08:21:58 AM |
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Very unlikely to happen. Right now, the only concern that every single country has is to get rid of Covid-19 once and for all. And I don't see that happening, there are over a million cases as we speak, and the numbers don't seem to be going down. China, who thought that they stabilized the rise of Covid-19 cases, had 3000 new cases yesterday. And this won't end until there is a goddamn cure. What you're suggesting is very unwise to do in midst of a pandemic. Sure, instead of relying on China, we get to start relying on ourselves, but at what cost? Any country tries to bring this proposal to the public, its gonna cause a mayhem. Trump has already called for a $2 trillion spending bill for infrastructure. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-31/trump-calls-for-2-trillion-infrastructure-bill-to-create-jobsIt's not as crazy as it sounds given the unprecedented unemployment numbers. Infrastructure spending is a band-aid for that since it creates lots of temporary jobs. I'm less convinced about the manufacturing angle, although China's widespread defective medical products during this crisis was notable and could affect future demand for some Chinese-made products.
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Nadziratel
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April 04, 2020, 09:10:56 AM |
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They should increase their focus more on building a vaccine or something to make the pandemic go away a little faster, second is that they should build a system that helps in preventingthe further spread and contractiong of the virus, and lastly, I think that the government should strategize on how will they create a fund stimulation that will benefit especially the poor.
The vaccine is on the way to finish, and many countries are trying to find the vaccine, but the process will not happen fast. There are many things to be tested before the vaccine can be given to the patient, and I think that will need some months before they can get it. Healing the people who infected and searching the other infected people and isolate is an important thing right now before the virus spreads to more people. So after the government knows who is the infected people, and they can quarantine that person to get cured, the government will think about the other way. Experts say that a fully effective vaccine is not possible for at least 1-1.5 years. In this case, a drug that fights the disease should be found more urgently than disease prevention. But more importantly, in this process, studies should be done globally for production models that will sustain the world economy. I think our primary need is basic food and health supplies. First of all, if we can act together in this area, then we will have no problem with hunger and insufficient health services. If we can make progress on issues such as joint laboratory studies, sharing information, joint steps can be taken for both treatments and needs. In this, people who are competent in health of each country can be brought together. Since the source of this problem is now the common problem of the whole world, it is obvious that more people will be hurt unless they act together.
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gentlemand
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I didn't want to develop this but job insecurity for example is the fault/ due to the wild strict version of capitalism adopted by the USA.
The capitalism we have is a long, long way from what its proponents will admit to it being in public. It has a huge socialist streak however that socialism is restricted entirely to corporate interests who get bailed out, indulged and protected while the real people are left to rot. Look at defence procurement. They ration the work they give out between companies very carefully to make sure they all get a piece of the pie. It's sensible, you can't let entire arms of industry die, but it's no different from a politburo handing out stuff to different tractor factories no matter how dire they are. If any politician proposed the measures they give their masters to the average person in the street they'd be immediately hounded out for being a flat out commie.
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April 04, 2020, 10:25:50 AM |
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Agreed with pugman. I dont think it will be over so easily even after the cure gets found. We are only at the beginning of what's about to come. You see the unemployment rates in the US is still soaring. These people won't find new jobs suddenly. The soaring U.S. unemployment rate could approach Great Depression-era levelsThe soaring U.S. unemployment rate might not match the peak of 25% seen during the Great Depression of the 1930s, but it could come uncomfortably close in the next few months. March was only the beginning.
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